jmlease1

His absence from a lot of lists last year is a result of the injury. with no information about his development, a lot of people are going to significantly downgrade a prospect until they get back on the field. It's not a crazy decision either, sort of like giving someone an Incomplete rather than a letter grade. he made some national lists after his first season and now he's surged up the lists.

I think this is a good move, presuming Polanco stays away from PEDs (a 1 year ban would SUCK). His hitting in the infield is a real asset, and I think he can defend well enough at SS to hold it down until Royce Lewis arrives and 2B is a more than viable option for him later in this proposed contract. I'm a Polanco fan. He doesn't get the hype of other guys, but he's performed. You need guys like him as part of a strong core and while there's always risk in a deal this long, I think by the end of it we're going to think it was a steal.

Huge potential for this guy. I think it's probably best for him to continue to develop in the minors this year and see how his development on the changeup goes and his stamina in going deeper in games and handling more innings. He's pretty young, and still not that far off his TJ that rushing him up to relieve doesn't seem like the best use of his development By my goodness, if he can get a solid changeup? He's an ace in the making. The fastball and slider are both good enough already that he doesn't need a great change, just a good enough one to keep hitters off balance, something to mess up the timing on guys trying to sit on his fastball or slider. He doesn't seem to drive hard off the mound and use his lower body terribly effectively, so if he's really a 240lb kind of guy maybe that's a refinement area that could help him deliver that superb velocity without straining the arm as much? Parker is absolutely right about the hips, though. Feels like he should start the year in Ft Myers with a midseason promotion to AA if he stays on path. The control is pretty impressive for such a hard thrower at such a young age. Looking forward to see him take on more advanced hitters. The floor seems to be high-leverage reliever. the ceiling is ace starter. love seeing that in the #3 prospect.

He's off to a very nice start. I would be aggressive with him and start him in Ft. Myers. Not sure there's much to be gained by having him beat up on low-A pitching for a month or so, and he needs to continue to show that he can hit against competition that's in his own development band. he's turning 22 at the end of the month and he needs to be playing against guys his own age or older, not knocking around guys still in their early stages of development. And if he performs in high-A, get him to AA for the second half. Going slow on Larnach in the low minors probably isn't going to help his development. I'll be very interested to see what happens with his BA, and whether or not some of that starts to fall off as he faces more advanced pitchers. I'm starting to think batting average is becoming an underrated skill again and it would be nice to have some higher contact guys in the pipeline. Larnach could be one of those guys that controls the strike zone, hits for power, but doesn't just wave at everything else he swings at...

I think we'll get a much better feel for where Javier should rank as a prospect after this season. If he plays a full season in A ball, that's a win. He's got terrific upside and the tools are real. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does during a full season facing other real prospects. How will he react to some adversity? How might he react to major success? He's a fun prospect. I might have dropped him a little lower, but that's quibbling a little. the upside is definitely there for him to be #5 in a high-quality system.

The K rate on Rooker makes me nervous. He seems to have no defensive instincts, and he needs to be a much much better hitter to be a primary DH IMHO. But here's the thing that really worries me: his first 50 games were a little rough. His last 30 games were awful. So he's really staking last season on 50 games in the middle? Hmm. I'd start him back in AA. Not sure he deserves to be ranked this high without better contact rates or more defensive utility.

It's especially interesting to peek at these rankings against Keith Law's recent list; there's a pretty significant divergence all over the place (except for the top 2). Law is calling Duran a one pitch guy and definitely sees him as a reliever. I wonder how much of the differences are based in proximity (TD guys might have more granular detail) and how much in preference (everyone may value things differently in prospects). But KLaw definitely agrees more with Tom on Duran...

I'd feel more confident about Thorpe if he had one elite pitch he could rely on to get some outs, but you can still have success in MLB based on command/control, pitch mix, and sequencing. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does in AAA this year and it should be fun to see him debut sometime in 2019 at the MLB level. He's still a young guy, and missing 2 full years and 2017 still being something of a rehab year has undoubtedly set his development back on pitch refinement. Here's hoping for another healthy year where he can continue to work on refining the changeup and making one of his breaking balls a better option. He might not be all that far off from finding an approach that will be very successful for him

While I still maintain that "closer" is an overrated role that teams usually overpay for...I would actually really be happy if we could bring in Kimbrel at 3/$45M. there's no question we have the payroll space for it and it wouldn't limit our ability to make other moves/sign extensions. And Kimbrel has been elite. not just top ten in the AL, not just top ten in MLB, but Hall of Fame-track kinds of elite. If he was 35+, I'd be more nervous. If it was a 5 year deal, I'd be really nervous. But for his age, experience, and skill...I'd jump on that one. I'm thrilled we're making that kind of offer, and I find it interesting reports have it as the best one out there. Our bullpen would start to look like a strength if you added Kimbrel to it. Kimbrel, May, Rogers, Parker as your top 4? Addison Reed & one more LHP? Only needing one more guy in the 'pen, allowing you to have a 4 man bench? I like this more and more, just hope Kimbrel start to like it too...

I like Enlow. I think this will be an interesting season for him, not on a make or break sort way but more on a developmental path. If the changeup starts coming together, if his command and control continues to develop and he's able to get deeper into games, if he continues to physically develop and avoid the minor injuries...he could be a fast-track guy. If not on some of these questions, he'll probably take a slower development path. He's got the plus curve that could be an elite pitch, and a good fastball to support it, so the future looks bright on him. Without a 3rd pitch he probably ends up in the bullpen at the MLB level, but mid-90's heat (more if he doesn't have to pace himself?) and a wipeout curve can make for a nasty backend reliever too. Future looks bright, upside is there, good start so far. but long way to go on this guy.

The twins do have options on this question, in part because with Kepler on the roster you don't need your 4th OF to necessarily be a backup for CF. I think Cave has the edge because he played respectably in extended duty with the Twins last year and he's a left-handed hitter. Having another lefty bat on the bench isn't a bat idea considering the lineup may well feature 6 righties on a regular basis (Cron, Schoop, Sano, Garver, Buxton, and Cruz) and one switch (Polanco). Sure, castro "hits" left, but... I'd like the twins to have a 4-man bench and not waste a slot on a 13th pitcher who only sees action once a week at best. Right now it looks like Adrianza, Casto/Garver (I don't know who's getting most of the starts at this point) and a 4th OF are going to fill 3 of them, with hopefully a player to be named later. If Tyler Austin is that guy, that's another righty bat and Cave makes the most sense out of the option we're looking a right now. I like Granite, but he needs time to get healthy and show he can hit. He's a nice defender, and has potential to be a speedy high-average guy who could get on base a lot at the top of a lineup. I don't hold his 2017 MLB struggles against him; first time in the majors and all that. But he was hurt a lot last year and really struggled. He need to get it back together before he's likely to be a real contender, and he's going to need to hold off Lamonte Wade now.

Seth is giving up on Rortvedt!

I'm a believer in Rortvedt, but he needs to keep working on his hitting. Last year was definitely a success, but he certainly hasn't answered all the questions yet. It will be interesting to see where Rortvedt and Jeffers start; I suspect that if Rortvedt gets his shot at AA, Jeffers will start out at Ft. Myers, but I would be surprised if they both start out in the same level they finished last year with an eye towards early season promotion. Personally, I think I would be more aggressive with them both and start Rortvedt at AA and Jeffers at high A. Rortvedt has the catching skills to work with more developed pitchers and we need to see if his bat can play at higher levels of competition. (and if he needs to repeat AA...ok) Let's see if Jeffers bat is what it looks like in a tougher league and competition closer to his age level; what are we gaining by having him beat up on younger guys? I'd also like to see how he does catching guys who have a little more advanced skills too. Gordon and Gonsalves are getting near make or break points. If Gordon can't hit better, he's gonna bust. He's been pushed fairly aggressively, so some adjustment is understandable, but he needs to find an approach that works for him at the plate. Gonsalves has to find better control. He's been able to generate enough K's at every level, so I suspect he can do better than his K/9 ratio in MLB last year, but the BBs have got to come down. He doesn't have the overwhelming stuff to be "effectively wild", so he needs to have the command and control working for him. Frankly, I'm nervous about his future.

This. but it's also noting that the defensive impact on run prevention at some positions is larger than others through sheer opportunity as well. there are simply fewer opportunities to make run-saving defensive plays at 1B than at CF. WAR is a useful way of summarizing a players total contributions to the team in a way that's fairly easy to understand, and in doing so it recognizes that certain positions are more valuable than others. That's all the positional adjustment really does. (it's also important to note that fWAR and bWAR are very different estimators for pitching; fWAR tells you how good they think a pitcher should have been, attempting to null out luck factors. bWAR tells you what they actually accomplished for the team in that year. fWAR may be better for predicting future success. bWAR is more descriptive of what actually occurred.) It's a useful tool, and it's nice to have a stat that tries to bring in everything about a player. It's not the end all be all, but it's a useful starting point for any discussion about a player's value. To my mind, if you have to argue that a player's WAR doesn't mean anything, then you have a weak argument.

I dunno, age 27 is when you expect guys to be having career years. If this is a career peak for him, he's going to unfortunately have a short career. And I'm afraid there's not a lot in his history to suggest he's going to improve much: there's little chance he improves much as an OF, there's nothing in his history to suggest he's going to cut down on the K's, it's hard to see him improving his contact rates, so about the only thing that's left is increasing his walks. If he can add 30-40 pts to his OBP then...maybe but sure seems like a big lift. As noted elsewhere, more and more teams are choosing not to book a DH-only player, especially because the benches are getting so short with larger pitching staffs. So if you don't have much positional flexibility, you need to be a superior hitter, not just a guy who gets by on one skill. The worry on a guy like Tyler Austin really is that he's Daniel Palka: a one-dimensional slugger whose best position is DH.

Meh. I just don't understand the love for Austin. He's a big swinger who adds little defense and doesn't get on base nearly enough to be significant asset. Palka? I certainly see the comp to Austin, but it doesn't speak all that well of either of them. Palka got a shot last year and despite 27 dingers he was still posted a measly bWAR of 0.6. Austin didn't get as much PT, but was roughly the same player. These are ok players to have on the roster if you have room, but in today's game they're getting cut as soon as they cost any money, because they have limited skills, no real positional flexibility, and are replaceable. Austin is a better defensive player than Palka, but not much. CJ Cron is better than either of them. Hopefully Brent Rooker will be better than any of them.

Lot of interesting quotes here. I like that Stewart seems to have a good feel for the position he's in: might compete for the 5th spot, probably starts off in AAA, needs to position himself to be ready when he gets his shot or to force the team to give him a shot. I think he's an interesting pitcher; he's doing a good job inducing weak contact, so if he can find a way to miss a few more bats he's got a real chance for success with this approach. It can be a challenge developing a pitcher straight out of high school, but despite Stewart falling off the top prospect lists, he''s got a real chance to be a solid rotation piece.

Ugh. I'm really high on Kirilloff, so I would struggle with this one. But the reality is, it will take someone of that caliber to get Realmuto, who is an all-star MLB catcher in his prime years still under team control. It would not be a crazy move at all. Catcher is definitely an area where I understand the team concern. Castro is coming off a significant knee injury, isn't a good offensive player, and his contract is up at the end of the year. Garver made very nice progress, but now we need to worry about concussion issues. Astudillo? Can he stick behind the plate, and is he really this kind of hitter? No one knows. Behind them, there's very little in the minors. Rortvedt (whom I like) hasn't played above A ball, and may never hit enough to really be an asset. There's a lot of questions and not a lot of depth in the pipeline. It'd be a bold move. It's also one that you'd want to have a multi-year extension in place to buy out that last arbitration year and at least 1 FA year if you're going to give up an elite prospect...

Would you not think this is a significant reason Paul Molitor is not the manager any longer?

Look, I want the Twins to do more to improve the pitching staff (especially the relief corps), but this is absurd. Kyle Gibson was nearly as good as Berrios last season (in terms of actual results, he was, in fact, better but also arguably luckier) and there's a good argument to be made that it's repeatable success because it was borne out of a change in approach. Taylor Rogers had a fantastic season and is in his prime. Trevor May is healthy and looked excellent when he returned. There are are also other guys on this pitching staff that are more than worthy of roles (Blake Parker, Pineda, Odorizzi, etc) and young players that would be competing for a spot on most rosters (Gonsalves, Stewart, Moya, etc). Let's not pretend this pitching staff is Berrios and a pile of garbage, because it simply isn't. I'd be a lot happier if they did a little more to shore up the bullpen because this has been a multi-year problem for the club, but I'm also cognizant that relief pitching is the most variable and fungible of any position out there so I get the reluctance to drop $10M+ a year on a guy for 3-5 years when next year he might go to hell. Craig Kimbrel is elite...will he be elite for 4 of the next 5 years? (remember, he wasn't all that great in 2016...) Cody Allen was terrific for five years, through what should be his prime, and last year was basically 2018 Addison Reed with better press. It's a roll of the dice on relievers, man.

Yeah, I'm not sleeping on Polanco. I think he's a significant part of this club and his absence was a significant part of the first half being such a disaster last year. Instead of having a power-hitting on-base machine 2B paired with a high average good power SS, we had a no-hit SS and a slumping 2B dealing with a balky knee, turning both spots into wastelands instead being assets. A .280/.335/.420 slash line is eminently reasonable for a projection and substantially better than anything we could expect from Adrianza, and would make it easy to accept Polanco's occasional struggles on D. But as Tom and others have noted, he's shown the ability to exceed that level. He fits nicely in either the 1st or 2nd slot in the batting order, and I think we can pencil him in for 140+ games this year. He's not a guy who need a bounceback year, he just needs to play. He screwed up, took a BIG ban that cost him a lot of money and hurt the franchise. But when he got on the field, he showed he could still hit. We had the 7th worst WAR at SS last season; a full year of Polanco easily slips us into the middle of the pack. In 2018, we were 21st at 2B and 24th at SS by bWAR. In 2018, we were 3rd at 2B and 14th at SS by bWAR. Polanco will help.

I'd love for us to be in on either player, but it feels like the mentions of us being a mystery team are the sort of thing an agent would do to try and stir the market, not because they have any intention of ever signing their player with us. They want us to be a stalking horse for a bigger market and try and push the Chicago/NY/LA's of the world to make the bigger offer. Basically, not seeing this matter.

so...Cody Allen, huh? He's an interesting pitcher. be nice if the twins could sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal. I think I agree that he would raise the floor of the bullpen.

I'd move on Cody Allen for a 1 or 2 year deal. I doubt he'll sign at a price we'd be happy with for 3 years, and there's enough risk after last year that a 3-year deal is a little questionable. 1 year at $12M? I'd go there. 2/$20M? I'd think very hard about that one too. more years seems unrealistic for either side. I don't know that I'd go over $12M on a one year deal, but if I'm Allen and I don't like any of the 3+ year deals that teams might go with, I'd probably jump on that, bet on myself, and try to stick it to Cleveland 10-12 times next year.

I want to congratulate Cody on successfully dodging the question of who WILL show the most progression this season between Kepler, Sano, and Buxton. I've decided to bet on Buxton showing the most progression. He'll be better and show more consistency this season. I expect he'll have a couple of bad (maybe even really bad) stretches, balanced by ones where he goes nuts, but I think his baseline will be higher this year and he'll be healthy enough to play 140+ games. I'm a little worried that Kepler is who he is. I hope I'm wrong and he takes a solid step forward on offense, but I'm not placing any money on that one. Sano will almost certainly be better this year than last, but he also may end up being a somewhat one-dimensional slugger. Buxton has the most upside, has had some semi-fluky injuries that have slowed his development (Sano's leg problems are a little less fluky, I fear), and is the youngest out of all of them. If I have to pick who's going to show the most progression this year, I'll bet on Buck.