jmlease1

Not really. Twins aren't going to sell low on a guy they think can still be an asset unless they have to. Gordon was having a fine season before the injury bug hit him; lest anyone forget, he probably would have been the one called up instead of Arraez if he hadn't gotten hurt. I don't understand the "Gordon won't hit for years" comment: his hit tool is the strongest part of his game, and he should hit for average immediately. if it's a reference to not making the majors, the only thing really stopping him at this point is Polanco & Arraez are established in front of him and in the short term Adrianza is a more certain bet with more positional flexibility. But there's a real possibility the Twins might have moved on from Adrianza in the offseason if Gordon had gotten through the season healthy. Right now, teams are offering a bag of used balls for Gordon, hoping the Twins are foolish enough to dump him. I'm glad they didn't bite on it. There's no point in dealing him for some janky reliever; there's plenty of those on the market and all they cost are money, which the Twins have plenty of right now. And if Gordon hits like he did last year and plays a full season, he's got real value, and there's no reason to think he can't do it.

I think Gordon's bat is ready now, but I expect him to be the first middle infielder to get a callup, not so much to make the club out of spring training. I agree, he's stretched at SS so I don't think the Twins are likely to bump Polanco to 3B to plus Gordon in, and I think they like Arraez at 2B. But he's still a nice player and I expect him to contribute in 2020. If he gets dealt, I think a team is going to be pretty happy with him. Rooker is also damn close...I wish he'd been healthier last year. It would have been good to see if he could have finished strong. The Ks are a concern, but the power is legit. Adam Dunn clone? Young Adam Dunn was a really good offensive player and awful defensively. His usefulness collapsed once he stopped playing in the field, and you have to wonder if he should have been transitioned to 1B earlier. Rooker getting more run there might be the smartest play for him. Maybe with more time he can be an average 1B instead of being a bad corner OF? Still not sure he can make enough contact to make his power play enough in MLB, but he could be an effective "three true outcomes" guy. I'm definitely high on Thorpe. I really think he's poised to make the leap and I'd like him to be in the rotation to start the season filling in for Pineda. Let's see how he does with a defined role and not on the Rochester shuttle. He's got the stuff, but he needs refinement and innings. Both Kirilloff and Larnach are close and could leap past other guys quickly, a la Arraez. Kirilloff had a bunch of nagging injuries and that dragged him down a bit last year, but healthy he will absolutely rake. Larnach impressed with his ability to adjust to a new level and keep on hitting. Either one is a fine choice to take the next leap (I like Kirilloff more; while Larnach had the better overall year last season, Kirilloff has shown a higher ceiling and at a younger age, even with the one major injury).

Clevinger or Bieber are a coin-flip for me. I'd take either immediately. plenty of control left, they'd slot right in for the next several years and look great doing it. Clevinger is probably a little higher upside, but Bieber is probably a bit more of a sure thing for a full year. Either would be the choice (even over Lindor, who is a terrific player). Giolotto is riskier to me: last year he was great, but he was horrid the year before. I like the CLE guys track record a bit better. I wonder who CLE or CHI would take from the Twins if they had one free pick?

I'd love to see a Donaldson signing. It makes sense in a lot of ways: Sano can move to 1B and should do fine there with a full spring training to prepare. The defense gets better at 3B for sure in the near term. The offense gets an upgrade because you're replacing Cron's bat with Donaldson, who is substantially better. The high OBP is a great fit too. Donaldson has good splits, so you don't have to worry about protecting him, and he's absolutely crushed it in Target Field (yes, small sample size) so it's not like the stadium will be a problem. Here's the other thing: Cruz is probably done after this season. Maybe he retires, but the odds of the Twins rolling the dice on a 40-year old again is increasingly unlikely. I'm betting that the DH spot gets filled by committee in 2021 and putting Donaldson on that committee makes it more likely he stays healthy and can continue to play a majority of games at 3B deeper into this contract. there's a good fit there and the money is less worrisome with Cruz's contract coming off the books. And even with a Donaldson signing, they still have the payroll space to sign Dallas Keuchel with no real issue. Or to take on a David Price in trade. And they certainly have the horses to go get Jon Gray (whom I'd would love)

The second to last paragraph has the key point on Blankenhorn's future: getting his OBP up. If he can't get it back above .350 in AA/AAA, then he's not going to be a real prospect with much of an MLB future. He's got enough pop in his bat to be a useful player, especially if he can be average (or better) at 3 positions, but he's got to get the OBP up. There's just not much room for a guy who only draws 30 BBs a year with that many Ks, especially if he's only slugging .450-.475, unless he's a superior defensive player...which Blankenhorn is not. I'm rooting for him; he did enough last season to make himself a prospect again. But after a mediocre 2017 and a bad 2018 he's still a "now or never" kind of guy, I'm afraid.

i think it's more likely to go the other way with Graterol: begins the year starting, but come September might end up in the bullpen after his innings pile up. But it's also possible they'll work around it by treating him more like a 5th starter who gets skipped for extra rest along the way during the year to space out his innings. Hard to know; we don't know what the Twins analytics section is thinking about innings limits and developmental milestones for young pitchers right now. Personally, I think Thorpe might be the best/most ready internal option and I'd like to see him as the 5th starter to begin the year (presuming we sign or trade for two more external options, with Pineda missing the first 6 weeks or so).He's got the stuff to be an interesting starter with solid peripherals. Yes, he got smacked around a bunch in his short stints last season...but Berrios got hammered worse in his first shot at MLB time. There's no question Thorpe can get Ks and he's generally been good about keeping the ball in the park. I think he's the most likely first option for the rotation internally, presuming he's not traded.

I think it's fair to want Berrios to take another step forward; he's been good, but had a rough August and while he was better in Sept it wasn't like he was April - July Berrios. He had the same August swoon in 2018; a little more consistency and he really is an ace. (I also prefer bWAR for pitchers over fWAR; bWAR more accurately describes what a pitcher DID in that year; fWAR more accurately describes what we should have expected. fWAR for pitchers is useful in trying to predict the future, but in describing what actually occurred on the field I think bWAR is better. JMO) I think Sano is a guy we need the step forward from. If he can stay on the field and play 140 games that's a lot of extra impact. Every hitter is going to have a slump or three (excepting maybe Ichiro or Carew in their primes), but can Sano shorten his up an not go into an extended malaise where any pitcher with a decent slider turns him into an auto-K? Can he find a way to keep drawing walks during those periods where his swing is just a bit off? June last year Sano drew barely more walks than he did in May in more than twice the games. Those stretches where he's putting up huge K numbers and not also grabbing the free passes are where his approach gets a little painful. A little more consistency plus a full season (with plenty of rest still available) and he's a 5 bWAR guy, not a 3. He's coming into his prime and I think he can absolutely do it. My #3 would be Lewis Thorpe. It's probably too much to ask that he make the same leap that Berrios did from year 1 to year 2; Berrios got more time in MLB to take his knocks and figure it out than Thorpe did in that first taste and Thorpe's got a pretty small sample size so far...but there's a lot to like there. Thorpe never dominated AAA like Berrios did, but he's always done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, getting Ks, not walking too many guys...the Twins need a young pitcher to step up and I think Thorpe is best equipped to do it.

I pretty much agree with this article, except for one small caveat: there is additional value to someone like Astudillo in a close & late situation where you really do just need someone to get the ball in play. Is it the best use of a roster spot? Probably not, but with Astudillo's positional flexibility it wouldn't take a massive adjustment in his hitting approach for him to be a useful pinch hitting utility guy. I think that's where the expectation should be.

Honestly, I'm less concerned by the money, for it is money we have and pitching we lack. Thw twins have marked the time... (tm Terence Mann)

good news! I really thought someone was going to claim Griffin Jax, and I'm glad we get to hold him for another year. I think he's in AAA early this year and will be nice development depth if we get hit hard by injuries in the starting pitching dept.

Well, I think the twins might be ok with giving Bumgarner $20M per year, but it might not matter if he doesn't want to play here, wants to stay in the National League, and wants to stay on the west coast (with possibly both the Dodgers and Giants bidding to keep him). Maybe the Red Sox are willing to eat $10M per year of Price's salary. Price being washed up is pretty debatable, though: he was effective until injury last year, excellent in 2018, and putting up a fine season before injury in 2017. His peripherals still look good: BB/9 is pretty stable over the last 3 years, HR/9 has been up a bit in the last few years...coinciding with the HR rate in baseball going way up. K/9 was a career high in 2019. H/9 was a career worst, but the BABIP on him was the worst of his career by 25 pts. Is it not possible that he was just a little unlucky last year?

FYI, Price's Hits/9 went up to 9.1 from 7.7, not his BB. I'm interested in price and frankly I'm not worried about taking on the salary. I'd rather take the whole salary right now and give up a lesser prospect and plug him in to the top of the rotation. The only issue with Price is health. The bWAR for Price in the Boston years is 3.0, 1.6, 4.4, 1.8. FIP suggests he was a little unlucky last year so I'm not panicking over the increase in WHIP. If you feel confident in his overall health and your team's ability to manage and coach him, I'd be happy to grab him in a salary dump. Generally this board has been in favor of signing Madison Bumgarner this offseason; it's important to realize that Price has been almost exactly as valuable over the last three years, and while Price is older he only has 150 more innings on his arm. If the Twins can't make it happen with a guy like Bumgarner, Price would be a fine alternative and the money really shouldn't be an issue. There's an assumption of risk, but it's also only 3 years remaining on the deal, making it a palatable one IMHO. Price, Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda and one of Thorpe/Dobnak/Graterol/Smeltzer is undoubtedly an improved rotation from last year, and if Graterol or Thorpe breaks out? You're off to the races. I'd definitely take Bumgarner or Ryu over trading for Price; both will cost less, both are at least slightly more likely to have a really strong season next year, and there's no other trade cost with them. But as an alternative Price works just fine. (so does Darvish)

Part of the benefit of the Marlins being interested in Rosario is it opens up opportunities with other teams in 3 team deals. Maybe the right pitcher comes from the Marlins, but maybe they come from somewhere else.

It's going to be interesting to see how a sinker-slider pitcher like Dobnak does in MLB going forward. It is true that sinkerball pitchers are going out of vogue right now, and part of the reason is they don't tend to generate a lot of Ks, and guys with a high K-rate are lower risk because of the lower numbers of baserunners they're generating. The question is, with fewer of those types of pitcher in MLB, will the remaining ones be more effective as they run out a pitch mix and style they isn't seen as often? Or will it not matter and maybe the best hitters just have an approach at the plate that can handle that arsenal too well? It's interesting, but Kyle Gibson was one of those guys who threw a heavy sinker and generated groundballs in 2014 & 2015 and was fairly effective overall on the season...but was horribly inconsistent from start to start. Look at this run of Game , Scores in 2014 from June 18 - July 29: 81, 19, 61, 21, 60, 31, 78. Results like that are why Gibson changed his pitch mix and approach (and had his best year as a pro in 2018). Now, if Dobnak becomes 2014-2015 Kyle Gibson that's still a huge win for a 5th starter, but if he's 2016-2017 Gibson then he's just another guy out there. Dobnak has talent, but I have concerns about his ability to become a consistent guy.

You need to put some of this in context: we're talking about backup catchers here, and finding one with positive offensive contributions is a little harder there. Don't compare them with a left fielder; compare them to catchers. If you think Avila's 2017 season was only sorta good, I really don't know what to tell you: he had an OPS+ of 120, so he was 20% better than league average as a hitter. Last year he had an OPS+ of 100, so right at league average...which is pretty darn good for a backup catcher. Look at the Yankees: Romine had an OPS+ of 97. Houston split their backup catching duties between Maldonado & Stassi; the first was basically Avila in less time (OPS+ of 101 with an equally low BA) and Stassi was an offensive black hole (OPS+ of 19). TB gave 289 PAs to Zunino, who had an OPS+ of 44! Washington got Avila-like production out of old friend Kurt Suzuki (OPS+ of 102), but did a job split with Yan Gomes, who clocked in at 78. Dodgers gave 249 PAs to Russell Martin and his OPS+ of 79. If you get league average hitting with good defense out of your backup catcher, you're doing very well. The platoon splits are very good for Avila in this situation: he should basically never play against a LHP starter absent an injury. It's a nice fit

Plan 1 is overall my preference, but I too would muck around at the edges. I don't want Bailey as the second SP in the mix and would prefer Gausman who wouldn't cost much more and could transition to the bullpen effectively if starting isn't gonna work for him or someone in the system passes him by the time Pineda comes back. If not Gausman, then I'm more interested in Rich Hill. But I really dunno about Bailey. I'm willing to agree to whatever the FO thinks is best in terms of signing one of Travis Shaw/Eric Thames/CJ Cron to fill in at one of the corner spots for a salary of somewhere between $5-7M. If Plan 1 is a no, than I'd go with trying to sign Donaldson, Rich Hill and then making a deal for Price/Sale/Darvish with the hope that Bos/Chi would eat at least a little of the salary.

I think in terms of production it's probably a push, but there's a little more risk/reward in Avila over Castro. He's had higher highs and lower lows, and there's more miles on his tires, though Castro has the more recent significant injury. Financially, it's a lower risk move because it's nearly half the salary. It's a good move, he should be a good fit as a platoon partner for Garver, and an excellent bridge to one of the guys coming up, whether it's Rortvedt or Jeffers. It's not splashy or sexy, but I'll keep harping on it: one of the best ways to stay competitive is giving as few plate appearances and innings as possible to bad players. These are the moves that keep the floor up, that keep a player from getting exposed before their ready, etc. I liked Castro, and he was terrific in year 1, injured in year 2, and a respectable backup in year 3. It's fine to move on and Avila is a quality replacement.

I'm fine with this move as well, especially because they got the 2nd year; I didn't want Pineda back on a 1-year make-good when he was going to miss the first quarter. The other good thing is the early months usually don't require a 5th starter as often so it should be easier to endure the suspension than it was last fall. but I still want Bumgarner or Ryu (or Cole or Strasburg, of course) to slot in around the top. And I wouldn't mind making a run at someone like Gausman as a) insurance against Thorpe/Graterol/Littell/whomever not being ready to lock down a rotation spot, because he's also a guy who could shift to the bullpen and be an asset. Again: so far we're keeping the floor from sinking. That's a really good thing. Pineda's a talented pitcher and this is a good 2-year price. It's fair to be concerned about not getting a more impactful pitcher, but 4 of the top 5 are still on the market and the Twins already brought back arguably #6. If the Twins can land Bumgarner, I'm feeling pretty good about how the rotation is lining up, and definitely better than a year ago at this time. I'm also baffled by people in this thread being down on Berrios. He may not be contending for a Cy, but he's a damn good pitcher.

Solid signing. Avila should be a respectable backup catcher where you don't have to worry about falling off the cliff when Garver gets a day off. I'd expect his bWAR to fall somewhere around 1-1.5 He's an interesting comp to Castro; both of them have made exactly 1 all-star game and that's really their only great season. Avila has had some better seasons and some worse; it's like he's more prone to higher highs and lower lows than Castro, but they're not that far off. Avila has some more miles on his tires, but as a backup should be good. I like this signing because it keeps the floor high. Good bridge to Rortvedt or Jeffers, and with Avila on board the Twins should be able to handle the usually dings and dents on a catcher during the season with Garver, Avila, and Astudillo getting the time, with Rortvedt & Jeffers in the wings (either might be ready for a fill-in by midseason if needed).

I'm fine with Bumgarner: he's in the same tier as Wheeler and could do very well (and certainly has a lot of success on the big stages, which can't hurt). And having a LHP in the rotation wouldn't make me sad at all. I like him as a pitcher, and while the miles on the tires raises the risk some, it should also lower the price a bit. Prefer a 4 year deal on him but if it's the difference between signing him and not signing him, I would be willing to go the 5th year.

I would hope Pineda would cost less than that, frankly. He's going to miss another chunk of time next season with the suspension and has never thrown 180 innings in his career. In 9 years he's missed 3 entire seasons and significant time in 2 more because of injury. I'm not opposed to bringing him back, but he's also a case of 1 year with a team option making the most sense ($8M pro-rated for the suspension in year 1 with a team option for $10M in year 2). But all of this is predicated on the Twins landing a serious top-end starter whether it's Wheeler, Ryu, Bumgarner, Strasburg, or Cole in FA or arranging a trade. Running back the ype of rotation we had last season lifts the floor and helps you compete in the regular season, but top-end talent is needed for the post.

I think these are the 2 most salient points regarding 3B. If you want Sano to improve, he needs to be healthy in spring training so he can actually work on it. And there's no question that there's plenty of history of the twins having guys start out as the Butcher of Cairo over there and turning into adequate if not plus defenders. (Trevor Plouffe who looked like he was playing with a frying pan instead of a glove at times improved rather drastically as I recall and the stats back it up)

because they didn't think he was worth spending $10-12M on? Baseball arbitration is an odd duck where no one who is eligible for it ever gets less money than the previous year, only increases. So even if you had a bad year, you get more money in arbitration. It's one of the better things the players have in the CBA. I think he's a very interesting choice to grab up as a 5th starter. The ceiling is someone who is a good #3 on a contending team, the floor is a replaceable 5th starter. I think Seth's contract proposal makes sense for the Twins, but not sure Gausman will go for the team option (definitely won't do a 2nd team option, IMHO). He's made about $20M in MLB already so unless he's been foolish with his money he doesn't need to worry about a 2nd year as much. But I'd be willing to take a run at him even without the option. Gausman could be a nifty replacement for Perez/Gibson's production at a smart price and if he flunks out as a starter would still have value as a relief option. Again, i think one of the keys to regular season success is putting as few innings and ABs in the hands of bad players as you can. Raising the floor has real value, and even in his down years, Gausman was a better pitcher than Martin Perez (whom we gave 29 starts to last season). Working with a good pitching coach in a stable environment as a 4th or 5th starter, I think he could chew up 180 productive innings with an ERA floating around 4.10-4.25. I like that a lot at $6M.

I think there are a bunch of reasonable internal options to fall back on, but i think they are exactly that: fall back plans. I think they try to sign someone in FA, either to fill 1B or 3B and adjust from there, and if they can't get the guy they want that way, they're re-looking at Cron, and then option 3 is to see if Rooker or Raley or Weil can handle it out of spring training and if not, plant Marwin there as the primary with Garver, Adrianza and Sano all seeing time there. I'm interested in Rooker, but I'd be a lot happier if he wasn't prolifing a little like a poor man's Adam Dunn. (If he's actually an Adam Dunn who is ok on D at 1B...then that'll be fine)

I like Cron, but this is a perfectly reasonable move. His production is fairly easy to replace, it's one of the easiest positions to fill in MLB, and the Twins have a variety of internal options, plus there's a reasonable question about what his health looks like (you can be ready for spring training without actually being "ready"). I don't think there's going to be a big market for him, so even if the Twins want him back they should be able to do it at a lower number. Hildenberger sucked this year. And sucked the second half of 2018. He's a marginal player; even fWAR has him as a replacement level guy. I don't think he was cut for $, I think he was dropped for the 40-man spot and that spot is unfortunately more useful than Trevor Hildenberger. It's easy to suggest that he was overworked and that's why he fell off in 2018...but was he, really? 73 appearances and 73 innings isn't some absurd number. (for example, the hated Yankees had 2 relievers make 72 & 73 appearances last year) Maybe the real answer is, he got figured out. That he's just another guy in the 'pen. Hate to say it, but that's probably the reality on Trevor Hildenberger. I like Adrianza at $1.6M, especially if last year's performance at the plate wasn't a fluke. Positional flexibility, switch-hitter...he's a nice asset as a utility guy.