jmlease1

Cron is a solid player. He played through injury this year and it absolutely harmed his offense, but who knows: it may have harmed his defense too. I'm more than happy to bring him back for another run, and if he wants to bet on himself with a 1-year deal I'd be open to it. The difference between paying him $5M this year and $7m next year isn't all that significant to our payroll and if he put up 2+ bWAR it's a worthy signing. Part of what made this team go this year was raising the floor: fewer bad players in any role is really important. We could hand the job to Sano, but there's risk in putting a less experienced 1B out there. He's probably not going to be as strong at scooping throws in the dirt. Marwin probably has to drop in as the everyday 3B, which reduces some flexibility. we could drop Rooker in at 1B, but he could easily underperform Cron's output, especially as a rookie adjusting to MLB pitching. Marwin's solid there defensively, but is below average offensively at 1B and again we lose his flexibility. La Tortuga? Yeah...no. Sorry. I love the dude, but he's not a great player and he's not an every day player they way he flails at anything. Cron is solid even with a repeat of last year and there's something to be said for certainty.

I'll take that bet. Absent a career-ending injury in like spring training, Nick Gordon will make it to the majors. I don't know if he'll be good, great, or a bust but I'm pretty damn certain Nick Gordon plays in MLB. Frankly, he's very likely to play this season. If not for the untimely injury last season, he probably would have played for us last season in MLB.

I still like Nick Gordon. It was a tough break for him the injuries this year, because he was playing well and now Arraez has jumped past him on the charts. he's still a guy who has real value and while I'm not opposed to trading him, I don't think this is the offseason to do it, because I expect us to get low-balled on him from everyone. If you love Arraez, you shouldn't hate on Gordon. At age 21 in AA, who hit better? It was actually Gordon. Who hit better at age 22 in AA? Again...it was Gordon. Gordon has more pop in his bat, Arraez has the advantage of never having had a down year adjusting to a level and didn't get injured at the wrong time. Neither are defensive stalwarts. Both are going to hit for average. Arraez is a bit younger. I'd much rather have Gordon on the roster as the possible replacement for Adrianza or as the first call up from AAA for a middle infielder in case of injury then getting an underwhelming return as a throw-in. His player profile has real value, but I think his perceived value around the league is disastrously low and I'm not ok with the concept of "eh, Arraez has passed him so let's move on for whatever bag of balls someone wants to give us".

I'm not sure Raley was really ever ahead of Cave or Wade on the promotion list, especially when we had a need for guys who can play in CF, because Raley is not someone I want patrolling out there. And Rooker was absolutely mashing it if you needed the corner OF/1B/DH guy. But Raley has some talent and might be a very useful player. I'd like for him (and Rooker) to cut down on the Ks; I'm a little worried that both are a little 3 True Outcomes right now and against MLB pitching will be K machines. Perfect choice to send to the AFL after the ankle injury cost him so much time, and hopefully this will help him be positioned to compete in spring training. Regardless of what happens with Rosario, there's room on the roster for another OF, whether it's Cave, Wade, Raley, or Rooker. And as long as Buxton and Kepler are healthy (argh!) it doesn't have to be a guy who plays CF, so why not Raley?

I think part of it was that in addition to his lack of power there's been some (reasonable) concerns about his defense. It's an area that he need to keep working on. but beyond that, he's a young guy who rose very quickly with limited experience. He had a really nice 2016 season at age 19 in Low-A, but basically didn't play for the twins in 2017 (3 games at Ft. Myers). 2018 he did well enough at Ft. Myers to earn a mid-season promotion, but showed a real power deficit in 1/2 a season at AA. Then he made a fast jump from AA to MLB at age 22. The missing season is probably the biggest reason he wasn't on as many people's radar, and then suddenly he's in MLB tearing the cover off the ball. I'm thrilled with his progress and there's no question he's the starting 2B next season. His approach means he should continue to have success getting on base and hitting for a high average, both very useful skills. But let's remember, the August version of Arraez (which is probably what a lot of people thought he might be after 2018) is just kind of another guy. While everyone has a slump or three, we need July or Sept Aaraez for him to be a real force in the lineup.

Ha! I love RT.

I'm always a little leery of starting pitchers going from the NL to the AL these days, especially for a guy that's not a dominating player. That said, Musgrove might be the guy that interests me most: That FIP suggests he was a little unlucky last year, and maybe with Wes Johnson adding a tick or two to the fastball the K/9 jumps up a notch as well. He's going to need some kind of adjustment to really be a quality starter, but there are some things that make him an interesting option. In this homer-happy environment his ability to keep the ball in the park is intriguing. But you would have to think Wes could make some adjustments to improve performance, because he's also never had a positive ERA+ Gray...probably contingent on how much you think getting out of Coors Field for half the season will help him. His career splits suggest it won't necessarily matter that much: he's basically been the same pitcher home or away, so you're relying on an assumption that the secondary impacts of pitching way up there consistently impact performance everywhere. He's had some good seasons, but control is a bit of a problem. Ray gets a ton of Ks and is tough to hit, but man that's a lot of walks! 2017 feels a bit like a fluke year, and I dunno how much I want to give up for 216 or 2019 Robbie Ray? Boyd feels like a waste of time, because I just don't see Detroit dealing him within the division without a substantial premium that I just don't have any interest in paying.

Cole is obviously the preferred target, but I'd be fine in going all in on Strasburg too. Both are going to be very expensive, AAV of at least $30M. Strasburg actually made $38M this year; you have to wonder if he'll be one of those guys who refuses to take less in AAV in his next contract than his last year of pay? I'm sure Boras' opening bid will be $40M AAV with at least 5 years on the contract. I dunno about Bumgarner. Durable but will he ever be elite again? (and how elite was he ever?) Interesting stat on him: his ERA and FIP were exactly the same. I wouldn't want him at anywhere near the price I'd pay for Cole or Strasburg; it's been several years since he was a better pitcher than Berrios to put him in context. Wheeler is definitely the guy I'd want out of the next tier. He's younger and his problem previously was control; the BB/9 the last two years suggests he's figured that out and should be a consistent solid pitcher. He'd be a great replacement for Gibson. 3rd tier isn't a group I have a lot of enthusiasm for. Wood might be an interesting reclamation project, but Quintana looks like a pitcher heading into decline. FIP suggests he was unlucky, but I think I'd rather have Pineda back (after suspension) than any of these guys. Ideally, we'd run out a rotation of: Cole Berrios Odorizzi Wheeler Thorpe/Graterol/Stewart/Smeltzer/Gonsalves More likely scenario: Berrios Odorizzi Wheeler Wood/Pineda Thorpe/Graterol/Stewart/Smeltzer/Gonsalves

Because he was a replacement-level player this year, while dealing with an e.Coli infection and ulcerative colitis? I think your "litmus test" is a terrible one to judge this franchise on. If the FO is convinced they can get the 2018 version of Kyle Gibson next year, then he's a significant asset on the roster, depending on the price. He put up a 3.8 bWAR and 118 ERA+ while chewing up almost 200 innings and averaging over 6 IP per start. If that guy is your #3 or #4 starter, you're in fantastic shape. And if Gibson can be had at an AAV of say under $12M and your staff thinks he's going to be that pitcher, it's a good move and hardly a failed offseason because he's back on the roster. If he's available a week before spring training and wants to do a 1 year "prove it" deal and the team thinks he's healthy, not bringing him for an arbitrary reason like that is franchise malpractice. It's fair to say, "I don't think Kyle Gibson can replicate 2018." or "I don't think he's going to be worth the money on a long term deal." but isn't it just silly to say (in Oct) "The offseason is a failure if Kyle Gibson is on the roster in 2020"? It's not like this is a pitcher who's never had success in MLB. Or has constantly been injured. or is somehow a major tool/clubhouse cancer. He's had multiple quality seasons. I used to call him The Tease, because it never seemed like he was going to put it together consistently. Then he did it for 2018. Changed his approach, got more Ks, had more success and did have that consistency. There's real risk with him. But there's also success and value to be had there if things break his way. I value Odorizzi higher because he's had a stronger track record overall, is 2 years younger, and looks well positioned to have continued success in his more limited innings. But Gibson, if fully healthy, is probably a decent bet to have a successful season. (keep in mind Gibson's fWAR in 2019 was actually the same as his fWAR in 2018; personally I consider bWAR a better representation of what a pitcher actually did in any given season but fWAR is considered by many a better predictor of future success...)

Challenging group, lots of reasonable opinions on either side for a lot of these guys. C Jason Castro: I'd like him back, but I think he gets offered a longer term deal elsewhere (2+an option, or even straight 3 year) and the Twins probably shouldn't go there with Garver stepping forward. If he's interested in a 1 year deal or 1+1, I'd do it. 1B C.J. Cron: I liked bringing him in last season and wouldn't mind him coming back, but I think the team moves on. Rooker may be ready to take on the job and there are other in-house options (Marwin can play there, allowing you to carry another OF, Sano can play there as way to get Marwin time at 3B or Adrianza in the lineup) so I think they look at the salary & the production and move along. I'm ok with that. 2B Jonathan Schoop: Did fine this year and was a very smart signing, but Arraez took this job by the throat, and Nick Gordon is waiting in the wings for depth. He moves on, everyone agrees. SP Kyle Gibson: Oh, Kyle. I was so ready to believe in you and illness just wrecked your season, even though you somehow got 29 starts. I think someone looks at his peripherals, the illness this season and take a flyer on last season being who he is and not a fluke season. They may be right. I dunno if it's the Twins or if it should be the Twins. It will be really interesting if he sits on the market for a long time. I think the longer he goes without a deal, the more likely he is to come back to MN where he's comfortable and liked. But I really can't predict the market on him SP Michael Pineda: I'd bring him back on a 1+1 or 2 year deal, but dammit I want a bit of a discount considering he's suspended for 60 games and we already paid him to rehab. I think he's more likely to be a better pitcher than Gibson next season, but missing the first half is...not great for this team. I think you choose one or the other, not both. SP Martin Perez: Nope. The change in approach worked for a while, then people adjusted and he didn't have anywhere else to go. I don't think he's effective as a reliever (control is not good enough, stuff is not dominant enough to make up for the BBs). Nice idea, worked for a while, time to move on. SP Jake Odorizzi: Yes. I'd try for 3 years, $45-50M maybe 3 plus an option (vests if he hits certain goals, otherwise is a team option?). I'd consider going as high as $18M AAV and I'd make the QO. I don't think anyone makes a 5 year offer on him, so maybe he does the deal with the Twins for 3 years of security. If he bets on himself and does 1 year, that's ok too, only an overpay if he regresses back to 2017-18; fine value if he's the '15,'16,'19 version and 1 year doesn't hurt you. RP Sergio Romo: I'm fine with returning him; $2-3M for a reliever is ok and if it turns out he's cooked you can move on from it with minimal impact. As long as his knee isn't going to explode off his leg, he can probably keep flipping that 82 mph slider at hitters until he's 50. But it would be nice to have another reliable lefty in the 'pen so bringing Romo back feels more like a roster issue than a cost or effectiveness one.

The surprise would have been if they didn't exercise the option, which would have been an Anthony Carter-esque contract blunder. (the basketball player, that is) I'd make Odorizzi the QO. Yes, $18M is more than I'd want to pay him (the projected QO), but I'd consider the jump on a 1-year deal and use as leverage to getting a 3 year deal that's better for both sides. We'll see. I think he's probably back next year. Cron...tough call. He's a better player than his performance this year (the thumb injury clearly messed him up), but it's hard to get excited about dropping more $ on 1B when we have other guys in MLB who can play there and some promising minor league prospects that likely could replicate the production (or better) at a fraction of the cost. But dang, I love having the boomstick back for another go!

I'd love to see some evidence on this one. yes, he may want a 5 year deal, but there's little in recent market trends to suggest that he's going to get it, especially after having a bit of a fade in the middle of the year and showing that he's not a guy who can pitch deep into games. I like the guy and support re-signing him, but going into his Age 30 Season he's never thrown 200 innings, and cleared 175 IP exactly once. He's due for a very nice raise this offseason, but $20M per? 5 years? It seems unlikely that's coming for the guy who was just dealt for Jermaine palacios. I'd be stunned if the AAV went over $17M

No no no no no no no. We already have Cruz under contract for next season (as soon as the option is picked up). Extending a 40-year old player beyond the additional year you have them coming off a big, but injury-impacted year is terrible planning, especially for a position that is limited to DH. You can go year-to-year on Cruz and if someone swoops in after next season (if he has another boomstick year) and overpays him, so be it. But you don't lock down a multi-year deal for a 40+ DH. Twins played that one perfectly last year: 1 year with a team option. Now we pick up the option and smile, and even if he craters next year, the team is fine. I would absolutely throw big money at Cole, because the window is open and he's elite. You pay elite guys. My preference is they go big after a top starter, someone who has ace qualifications and can compete for Cy. Put 50% of the resources available on that one. Bring back odorizzi for another run; If he's your #3 you're in good shape, even knowing that he's rarely going to go 7 and will likely get pulled in the 6th. 3 years @ $15-17M could get it done. I'd toss $8-10M at a back-end guy so you're feeling confident in 4 slots to start the year. I think you can try fill 1 spot in the rotation internally; it's too much risk to go for 2, especially because with injuries and possible ineffectiveness you'll need other starters to come up anyways. The problem is, there aren't very many top-end starters that can be had. Would I offer 6/$220M for Cole? Yes, I would. the window is open, let's go for it. Will he come here for that? Will he come even if it's 6/$240M? We just don't know. Pineda keeps coming up. I would consider him, but I want a little discount and I want either a 2nd year or a team option. The suspension (and how it hamstrung the team this year) is a problem.

I'm so happy the Twins got the HR record. Screw the Yankees. Of course, since the Yankees didn't get it, no one is talking about it but that's just another reason to hate ESPN(Y). It would have been nice to tie the '65 squad, but I have no regrets about this team. They've been tremendously fun to watch all year. It's a really easy team to like, and you never feel completely out of any game. On to the playoffs!

I would try for the extension. I think there's little chance of a 6 year deal, because of where that puts Sano when his FA would come up. He's got a much better chance of getting the gigantic 5-6 year deal at age 30 than he does at age 32. 4 years and $50-60M might get it done. That would get him more on the front end and give himself some protection against injury & position change value loss and still save the Twins some on the back end if he keeps crushing the ball. Because the AAV on his contract if he hits FA at age 28 will start at $20M+

I really want the Twins to end up with the HR record. The Yankees ballpark is a joke, the Yankees suck, and I'm sick of the national media freakin' out anytime something happens in NY and ignoring everything that happens in MN.

Randy Dobnak. Who knew? It's a heck of a rise in one season, but the results have been good. A formula of keeping the ball in the park, not issuing a lot of walks, and missing enough bats that hitters can't just wait on a pitch is still workable in MLB...especially keeping the ball in the park. In this homer-happy environment, could that be an underrated skill? I'm a little concerned that as teams get more tape on him that someone is going to find an exploitable flaw (and he has been a little lucky to date) but right now sure seems to be the time to ride that horse and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. Another terrific performance from arraez. We're starting to get outside of SSS territory; maybe he's just going to be one of those high-average hitters! Man, that would be awesome.

I like Rortvedt; hope he can end up hitting enough to make it. The defensive tools are there, i think. But Jeffers may already have passed him in the organizational rankings because of his bat. That said, it's nice to have to prospects moving up in the catching ranks again; it was pretty empty there for a while! Chalmers is really interesting. If he can keep the BBs to a manageable number, he could rise really quickly. There's no question he's got the stuff, but whether he can control it enough to be a real starter will be his question until he proves it. If he gets that bb/9 in around 3.5 he's going to be scary. If he's hanging around 6, it won't matter how nasty the stuff is, because no one will bother swinging at it until he grooves one. nice start in the AFL, glad to see him getting some work there.

I think right now we're seeing whether or not Gibson in the 'pen makes sense, and if he can't hold up or be effective he gets left off the roster in round 1 in favor of someone like Smeltzer or Thorpe (both of whom gives you another LHP option) I think 13 position players and 12 pitchers is the right mix. Agree on the position players; I just don't see room for Astudillo on this roster. While his positional flexibility gives him value, his lack of control of the strike zone throws it all away. He's just not hitting. Not this week, not last week, not last month...not since March/April. I'd much rather have LaMonte Wade as an option; his approach at the plate is valuable in the postseason and I think he's overall more reliable defensively than Cave. Cave is the bubble guy for me if Adrianza is healthy enough to play, I'm afraid. Cave's defense is a little shaky, Adrianza has actually been a better hitter (and is a switch hitter) and I'm more than comfortable putting Marwin in the OF.

nice win. Odorizzi looks like he's in good form to start in the playoffs. I was surprised to see Gibson get the call with the game still very much in doubt considering how he's been struggling lately, but maybe he can be a long guy who can give you 2-3 innings in a bullpen game? Looks like Cleveland is going to try and run off a big win streak to end the season, so the twins are just going to have to do it on their own. 2 more wins gets the division and makes them the 2nd winningest team in franchise history. Very good chance at hitting 100 wins. I freely admit, I did not have this team anywhere near that number. I thought they were more likely to hit 85 or so and if a few things broke right they could maybe pop 90 and contend for the division. Thrilled to have been wrong, because this is one of the most fun twins teams I've ever watched.

The tools are there, but it's like he just doesn't really know how to pitch. terrific velocity with some movement on the fastball. A nasty hard slider that's hard to hit. He's got some weapons, but maybe he just can't control it? I'm glad to see him getting some time so we can see what he looks like against MLB hitters, but clearly he's got a ways to go. Maybe working with the MLB staff and getting plenty of video on him will help them develop the right offseason program for him?

Staggering? They just won 3 out of 4 and won the series. They've won their last three series despite still dealing with a slew of injuries. If that's staggering, sign me up.

Chili definitely comes to mind; 3.3 bWAR in the first year, 2.0 in the second year and really filled a need on the club (much like Nelson Cruz did; as I recall DH was one of those positions we weren't doing great at in the early 90's). Thome was great, but not as reliable as Chili. Do you give extra credit for team performance? Chili was an offensive catalyst on the team that won a title. Jack Morris was the pitching catalyst in the same year (good year by McPhail!) Brian Harper probably wins this one in total bWAR, but never had any really big years, just 5 straight really solid ones. Ervin Santana is an interesting question: more limited first-year impact followed by two stellar seasons which is time here colored by a disastrous final season.

Tom Verducci at SI has been pushing this for years, but that stats haven't borne it out. It makes a great deal of intuitive sense, but it doesn't mean that it's a real thing. I like Graterol in the bullpen for this offseason, but I want him starting next year. The changeup needs work, and he'll need a 3rd offering to real lock it in as a starter in MLB, but I think he can do it. And while I'd love it to be the change, he could also be a guy who makes it work with 2 different fastballs and that nasty slider if the change doesn't come around. Let him compete for the rotation out of spring training, and if the change or other 43rd offering isn't ready for prime time, he can keep working in AAA (which may be a better training ground for pitchers than it was with them using the MLB ball now) until he's ready. I think he's got a solid chance to be starting next year. I think any innings limit should be based on how his shoulder is doing during the year, not based on arbitrary numbers.

My only question is whether the Twins will reach 100 wins for only the second time in team history? 5-3 in the last 8 seems very doable and cracks the century mark for their second-best record overall, behind only 1965. It's been a pretty amazing season, and a very enjoyable one for a fan. A nice win against a KC team that is not very good, but plays the Twins hard. Time to get the win on Sunday!