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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    There are things to like about all of these hitters, but all of them have serious questions too. (pitchers still seem to be charting ahead of hitters to me; I like the pitcher set from 11-15 better than the hitters) Javier has talent, but we're getting to a point where the production has to catch back up. His cup of coffee at 17 was great, his first real season in MiLB was excellent, and since then...he's had a seat on the struggle bus. Brutal year coming off injury (and a missed development year) in low A, missed another development year due to COVID, and then was just decent in high A. He's not making anywhere near enough contact. I think he's this high based on scholarship, not production. I'm rooting for him to have the breakthrough, but this is basically a make-or-break year for him to stay any kind of prospect as opposed to being minor league depth. Cavaco has some similar issues: tools are there, production is not. He's got the advantage of being younger, but for a high draft pick, you would hope to see better signs that he can excel. The missed minor league season in 2020 hurt him as much as any player in the system to be sure, but he needs to start showing what that athletic ability can translate to. I expect him to repeat at Ft. Myers, frankly and if he can't beat up on some of these pitchers he's going to start hearing "bust" associated with his name. Urbina is really hard for the layman to evaluate. He's going to repeat a level as well, and if he can't hit this time around, I'm not sure I care how many walks he takes. It's great to have a good eye at the plate, but at this level you also have to be able to make contact in the zone, and Urbina is showing a deficit on that metric. Because as soon as you advance to higher levels of competition you're not going to get the free passes because guys can actually get it in the zone more consistently. Encarnacion-Strand and Wallner are the better options here so far. I'll want to watch Christian E-C's K's, but he has a chance to advance quickly if he continues to smack the ball. Small sample size, but he did what he was supposed to do and I think you have to credit that. I tend to rate production over tools. Wallner has a big K issue to watch, but the power is for real and he's performed everywhere. Did great at the AFL, which hopefully kick-starts his season. I do think he's got to make more contact in order for him to stick as he rises, but he'll be interesting to watch in AA.
  2. jmlease1
    A ton of talent in this set and we're not even in the top ten yet? (this also may be a sign that I'm going to disagree with some of Seth's top 10, lol) Sands is a guy I really like, and while I expect him to be in AAA to start the year, he's definitely someone in the mix to make his debut in 2022. While I'm not excited about how the MLB rotation is shaping up right now, I am enthusiastic about the fact that if/when the Twins need to go deeper to get starts from within the organization they're going to be looking at someone like Sands, rather than Charlie Barnes. There's no question that the missing 2020 minor league season set some of these guys back in their development and the adjustment in returning to game play may have been one of the reasons we saw so many pitching injuries in 2021. So here's hoping for good health by all of these guys! Strotman...well, we'll see. He's got talent, but he looked pretty rough last year. He's got to find the command or he's going to be in the bullpen pretty quickly. Can't wait to see Varland at AA to see how he does against better and older competition. He had a terrific year and deserved to get in the prospect conversation, but if you can't dominate low-A at age 22, then you're probably not going to be a prospect. The fact that Varland continued to pitch so well upon promotion really speaks well of him and suggests that the mechanical adjustments they've made with him give him the stuff he needs to compete. He's a great reminder to keep an eye on your own backyard and not ignore a player just because he went to a D-II school. Hope they continue to scout the Northern Sun!
  3. jmlease1
    I think they keep him in 2022 and they'll make a decision on whether to pick up the $14M option after the season. He'll probably play a fair amount at 1B but get more ABs at DH depending on the health and progression of some of the other young players. (If Larnach is hitting his way into the lineup, I could see them moving Kirilloff to 1B and Sano to DH) But unless someone like Kepler, Donaldson, or Arraez is dealt, then the Twins will need Sano in the field at least part of the time. He's an interesting player because when he's squaring up on fastballs he's an incredibly dangerous hitter. When he's struggling to catch up to fastballs, then he's also chasing more off-speed pitches out of the zone (usually with two strikes). He's got great patience and good understanding of the strike zone, but needs to find that good balance between aggressiveness and patience so he's swinging at his pitches (this was part of his key to success in the second half). The issue the Twins should be thinking about the most with Sano is how to shorten up the time he spends in a slump. He gets into these runs where his timing is just off and he can catch up to fastballs up in the zone, can't square up on off-speed pitches and is just a mess for long periods. When he gets that timing back, he starts mashing again. If they can find some tricks to get that timing back on track faster...he'll have a great year. His biggest problem on D is decision-making: he's too aggressive in going after balls and pulls himself out of position chasing things he realistically can't get to, and needs to just simplify it a little more. He's got the hands to do it and he's plenty athletic (and makes a nice big target out there to throw to). I think there's opportunity to improve, but the expectations have to be realistic. He's not going to be Mauer (who should have one at least one Gold Glove over there) or Mienkiewicz (who was elite) but he can be good enough, especially considering his bat. The most likely scenario is he has another good, but not great season, that probably falls somewhere between 2021's overall effort and his 2019 campaign. Which would be worth what we'll pay him, but probably not worth picking up the $14M option. And then he'll probably leave, because when a team doesn't pick up an option or offer arbitration pride will get in the way even if the team wants to bring them back and they'll take less to "go somewhere they're wanted" rather than sign for less than they made from their old team. Such is the business of baseball. (I don't think there's anyone on the club that things he's got an attitude problem or anything like that. That's the BS that comes from fans who hate the Ks and can only remember the slumps...or Reusse.)
  4. jmlease1
    These all seem pretty reasonable to me. If someone really insisted on putting Arraez ahead of Larnach I probably wouldn't get too upset about it, but these all seem pretty close. I'm a fan of Larnach and it can take some adjusting when you get to the big leagues especially for more of a power hitter, and it wouldn't surprise me if once Larnach got off track he was just kind of spinning and really needed a reset. (I don't think he was fully healthy towards the end of the season either) The talent is there. Arraez is more accomplished and has proven his ability to control the strike zone and get on base, but he really isn't much of a defensive player and doesn't hit without enough power to be very comfortable as a full-time DH. (that said, I think the Twins have enough power elsewhere that I wouldn't be opposed to him getting lots of DH time to save on those knees, but if DH is your best position you need to hit a LOT to make up for adding no value anywhere else) Miranda looks like the heir apparent to Donaldson at 3B to me. He's not as strong defensively, but we've seen that guys can really improve at 3B at the MLB level (Koskie was shaky early on and quickly became an asset and Plouffe was basically a butcher out there for a while but became more than adequate) and I love his hit tool. Very excited to see what he can do. Both pitchers need innings, but they're very talented. I'd hate for Duran to end up in the bullpen any time soon. Can't wait to see Balazovic. But I'd be happier if they were battling to be the first call up for injury/ineffectiveness or so outstanding at spring training that you can't keep them out of the rotation, as opposed to them contending for the 4th spot...both probably need some polishing and innings at AAA.
  5. jmlease1
    I too am high on Celestino. He wasn't ready for MLB, and everyone in the organization knew it, but injuries forced him up early. Despite having a rotten debut, he bounced back and played well when he reached AAA...which was where he probably should have been at that point in the season anyway. The defense needs some adjusting, but he has the tools to be a very solid CF and can play all 3 OF positions. I think he'll compete for the 4th OF spot in training camp this year (assuming there is a season) and could be a really nice fit.
  6. jmlease1
    I like the upside on Severino, but the rest don't have a lot of the excitement factor to me. It's good to have catcher depth and guys in the organization that you can go to, but I'm not sure any of these look like they have a breakout potential to me. I hope I'm wrong. Pitching side of the equation looking a little stronger and deeper at this point in the lists. That said...we're still pretty far down the prospect lists.
  7. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Moran. He's going to walk more batters than some people will be comfortable with, but that change-up is a real weapon and means that he's not going to be just a lefty specialist. I think he's MLB ready right now, but whether or not he starts the season in the Twins bullpen will depend on whether they sign more arms, I think. Regardless of where he starts, I'd wager money on him being in the bullpen at the end of the season. Vallimont is an interesting case. Any pitcher that can hunt Ks like he does is worth watching, but he may not be able to consistently command his pitches well enough to make it as a starter. But for a K-hunter like him, the bullpen is a fine backup plan. He would have 100% been grabbed if left unprotected in the Rule V because even good teams can take a flyer on a bullpen option like him for $100K and seem if they can get him on track consistently, because it's low risk. If you succeed, you've got a weapon for $100K, if you fail you either get $50K back or stash him in your system to keep trying for the rest of the season. Vallimont likely starts back at AA, and I have to wonder if this season if he still struggles as a starter if they'll make the conversion around midyear. The lack of a development year from COVID almost certainly hurt his progress.
  8. jmlease1
    Seriously. I know there are some questions about whether or not Martin can handle SS full-time in MLB, much like with Royce Lewis (and that's going to be true of most SS prospects that can hit and aren't just glove wizards) but I haven't seen a word that he can't play CF.
  9. jmlease1
    Do we, though? I just think the position of "closer" is overrated. It's functionally "pitches the 9th inning" in the land of the equally overrated save stat, and I'd much rather have a bullpen where you put your best guy out there against the opposing team's best hitters late in the game, rather than lose the game in the 7th because you had a lesser pitcher take on the top of a team's lineup while you were saving the closer for the 9th. Get them out in the 7th and you might not have to face them again for the rest of the game. I'd rather mix & match with our best 2-3 pitchers in the back end of the bullpen as lockdown guys against the best hitters and firemen to snuff out a rally than save them to pitch the 9th. I would like to add one more RHP to the mix if possible, a guy who really throws big time heat...but I'm not unhappy with where the bullpen stands right now. And I'd much rather they spent the rest of the budget on starting pitching and shortstop than handing out a bunch of $4-5M contracts to relievers who are probably a coin flip
  10. jmlease1
    I wouldn't look to deal Martin either, because there's a real question on whether Kirilloff is going to get moved to 1B (where he might be elite defensively and Sano may not have that much time left in the organization) and if Larnach can hit enough in MLB to be a full-time starter. So there are other places for Martin to play. He could be a true super-utility guy (playing any of the OF positions and some time in the middle infield as well) or he could get slotted in LF and the only thing that ever hits the ground in the Twins OF would be rain. His ability to get on base and cover ground in the OF could make him a really fun LF: I think our pitching staff would appreciate the team starting two guys who can play CF in the OF at the same time (three if Kepler sticks around, or Celestino makes the squad at the same time). I think Martin can hit. His ability to control the strike zone is really impressive at this point in his development, and the only knock on his hit tool is power. Well, he was fighting an injury for much of the year and adjusted his approach to compensate...and power is also the easier thing to add to someone's portfolio as a hitter. I'm much less worried about the guy who controls the strike zone and needs to add power production than the big slugger who can't manage the zone. I think Martin can hit, and if you can hit they'll find a defensive home. And he's not a guy who can't play D; it's just that his likely best two positions are currently occupied by guys who are better than he is right now.
  11. jmlease1
    It's a liftbridge, not a drawbridge. This moment of duluth-native nitpickery has been brought to you by the letter D and the number 6. (a drawbridge folds up from the side (usually just one, but possibly both with a split in the middle) and a liftbridge has the entire center span rising up. Hi, I'm a huge nerd.)
  12. jmlease1
    He didn't define it by "are you eligible for MLB's Rookie of the Year", he was talking about rookies making their MLB debut, aka "how did these guys do in their first taste of MLB". There's no need to be so damned snotty.
  13. jmlease1
    The grades on these guys are reasonable, but there's a lot of good in there even for someone of the guys with lower grades. (some...maybe not. There's a reason Charlie Barnes got cut from the 40-man.) The only thing stopping Kirilloff is health. I just hope the wrist thing isn't chronic, because he can flat-out hit, but with the bum wrist the power vanishes. But he's why I'm not terribly interested in renting a LF, because I think Kirilloff can play there just fine while mashing balls around the park. Ober & Ryan did great in their debuts, they just need more innings. The floor is 5th starter on both of them, and we won't know what their MLB ceiling is until they play more. My feeling is they're likely to be considered mid-rotation guys who could have all-star seasons if/when they have a year where everything comes together. lot to like there. Larnach had a tough year. Showed he could mash fastballs early, went to hell after they stopped throwing them to him and then got so messed up trying to deal with offspeed that he couldn't even hit fastballs once they started throwing them to him again. he was rushed a bit earlier than anyone would have liked, but I believe in his talent. Hopefully he can start the year at AAA, get a good reset, and refine his approach. Celestino is someone who looked like he had a brutal year...until you look beyond his MLB stats. He was dreadful at the plate in MLB, but he shouldn't have been up this early either. He did great when he got sent back to AAA, which is where he should have spent most of the year anyway. I like him to battle for the 4th OF job, since he should be able to play all 3 positions and the RH bat makes him a balance for the lefties in Kepler/Kirilloff in the corners and Larnach as a next man up. Moran is another guy I'm excited about. he had some rough numbers, but that changeup is legit. he's going to have to work on command so guy walk up looking to swing rather than walk, but if he gets it down enough then he's going to make some people look really silly chasing that change. Twins have had some great results with lefties throwing the change-up and Moran could be another one. I'm pumped about him.
  14. jmlease1
    Maybe a bit harsh, but...also the way modern bullpens are constructed. You try to have 3-4 guys that form your core, that you think will be reliable for at least one more season, a couple of waiver pickups, and then a couple of young guys from your minor league system that look like they might be ready to contribute and develop into the next core guys. Rogers is a quality pitcher that even in a down year is very good, especially against lefties. Duffey was still very effective last season, just not dominant like the previous two years, and looks like a guy you can count on as a righty option. Thielbar has always been effective when he's been healthy and available, and he's been good as well the last two seasons. Alcala is a guy on the rise who is death against righties and maybe starting to figure out how to survive against lefties. A reasonable core to work with. Then you have guys from the system like Moran & Stashak and a few waiver guys like Garza & Cotton (both of whom have had success in MLB getting guys out in the bullpen) and you work from there. Working it this way, you can churn through guys that are ineffective until you find a combo that works, without getting stuck on a sunk cost fallacy. Teams overpay for supposed "shut-down" pitchers and "proven closers" who are really just decent relievers coming off a good year or getting put in a particular role. ChiSox are now paying Liam Hendriks $27M for the next two seasons when he's only been a dominant reliever since turning 30. If he stays dominant for these next two years, then great...but if he goes back to being the guy that he was his first 4 years as a full-time reliever, then he's drastically overpaid...and there aren't that many relievers who dominate for 5 years in a row in their 30's. The Twins approach to putting together a bullpen is a pretty good one, overall. And it should keep us from ever doing anything like trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps ever again.
  15. jmlease1
    Loved Shane Mack. He was having a terrific season in 1994, another overlooked all-star campaign before the damnable strike. Would have been interesting to see what would have happened if he had never gone to Japan and kept rocking it in MLB in 1995 & 1996. A great run in MN, and a really fun player to watch. Huge fan of Shane Mack, who I think is terribly underrated.
  16. jmlease1
    Strotman is also the secondary piece in the Cruz trade. Anything they get from him is a bonus the way Joe Ryan appears to be developing. If he turns into a legit bullpen arm, it's a huge win. There's a lot of really good depth in the Twins system for starting pitching, with some of these guys looking like they could be front of the rotation guys. It's also important to remember that pretty much any projection system will almost never project a guy as an ace. The Twins guys had a lot of injury hiccups last year, and will likely get dinged for it. But there's enough promising guys to fill a pitching pipeline for the rotation...and there's a few guys in there that could have big years ahead.
  17. jmlease1
    these guys are players ranked somewhere between 50-60 overall in the Twins system, we are really diving deep here, and the early part of the list is going to have guy who are totally lottery tickets or have a ceiling as a utility guy. You need to follow the minors a LOT to know all 5 of these guys.
  18. jmlease1
    Johan was amazing. I think he's hall-worthy as well; his level of dominance was absurd. Three (consecutive) years where he either won or should have won the Cy. 5 straight years where he was top five in the Cy Young voting. His B-Ref page is absolutely splattered with "black type". He led the league 4 straight years in WHIP. Dude even won a Gold Glove. If you'd tacked on another 4-5 years in his mid-to-late 30's of mediocre pitching where he compiled another 500 innings and 50 wins or so it probably helps his HoF case with a bunch of voters, but it shouldn't. Some guys are comets and the peak value is too good to ignore. Johan's career was cut short because of injury, not ineffectiveness and the resume is worthy. For 7 straights years if you didn't include Johan in the conversation of the best pitcher in baseball, your argument was invalid. Also, what is it with lefties and the change-up for this franchise?!? Frankie V and Johan, masters of the change. Love it.
  19. jmlease1
    I don't think Canterino is going to go to the 'pen any time soon. Yes, the injuries are a concern, but he's also shown the ability to be successful as a starter, so I think the team is going to give him every opportunity to make it in that role before they try dropping him into the bullpen. Vallimont and Strotman are different cases, I think. Strotman didn't have a lot of success in AAA for the team this year, is getting a little older, and is much closer to a break point. Vallimont simply may not have the command and control to ever be a starter, but there's no question he has the stuff. He was protected from the Rule 5 draft because there was a high likelihood that a team would take a flyer on him in the bullpen right now. While I expect Vallimont to get another shot at starting this season, he's definitely on a path where if he can't find the consistency soon he'll make the move. Frankly, I have to wonder if Thorpe is a more likely candidate as well. He's struggling to break through, he's seen a dip in velocity that may make it harder for him to find that success as a starter, and maybe a change in role will help him out mentally and physically.
  20. jmlease1
    Truly. Someone needs to explain to me how Mattingly got 9 Gold Gloves and Hrbek got none...oh, wait. Mattingly played in NYC. Hrbek should have had at least two, minimum. The era of just giving it to a guy on the east coast year after year really screwed Hrbie. I loved him as a player. Saw him hit a home run as a kid in the Dome and my young self did not think it was possible for anyone to hit a ball that far, just a mammoth upper-decker. An excellent player, team leader, and someone who loved the game and loves life.
  21. jmlease1
    I think Jovani Moran is going to be a significant contributor in the bullpen in 2022 (assuming there's a season, of course). He had some struggles in his first taste last season, but also showed he had the pitches to compete. He's got some control issues that he needs to keep working on, but you can absorb the BBs when you hunt Ks like he does. He's a lefty who can torch guys from both sides of the plate and I think he's for real. I wouldn't mind them adding one more RHP for the bullpen, but otherwise I'm ok with rolling with what we have and cycling guys through to find an effective and consistent bullpen. Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, and Thielbar are a solid crew for the back end, and then you add in Garza, Cotton, and Moran/Coloumbe plus one more RHP fireballer and the 'pen looks pretty solid, flexible, and ready to go. Few players on scholarship and the biggest risk is Rogers being healthy, but he's also the most proven guy so he's worth the risk. I don't believe in throwing extra cash at a guy because they're a "proven closer", and I don't believe in dropping $5-8M AAV contracts on most relievers. Too many of those guys are fungible from year to year and not worth the risk. I'd rather go with guys who have minor league options left who can be cycled, converting failed starters, and only putting the cash down on top talent.
  22. jmlease1
    Workhorse is a great description of Frankie Viola. 10 straight seasons of at least 200 IPs, he was basically guaranteed to make 35 starts every season. Once he figured out that changeup, he really came into his own. I was bummed when he left, but that was a fine trade for the Twins in bringing back Aguilera (one of the best relievers in Twins history) and Tapani (who was another workhorse who had his best year at the right time to help the team win a title). Viola had Tommy John back closer to the dark ages of the procedure; now, with his bulldog attitude and modern methods I bet he would have been able to make that comeback and have a longer & better run in his late 30's. Fun pitcher, interesting guy. Always happy when he comes back to MN and ducks in for a Twins broadcast.
  23. jmlease1
    Wallner definitely has talent and deserves his prospect status; when he hits the ball it goes a long way and he gets on base enough and makes enough contact to be a force in a minor league lineup. But that K-rate scares me. If he's whiffing that much in A-ball, it doesn't really bode well for his ability to continue to make hard contact as he rises through the system and more importantly in MLB. Rooker has really struggled because of just this problem (his limits as a defensive player hurt him as well, and it does sound like Wallner is more of an asset there...but Wallner still looks like he tops out as "ok as a corner OF"). There's been a lot of sturm and drang over Austen Martin's lack of power production in AA, but it's easier to add power to a guy who can get the bat on the ball at all times and really control the strike zone then it is to add contact to a guy who whiffs a lot. Plenty of history of players adding patience at the plate and drawing more walks as they progress in their careers too, but how many went from being high K guys to good contact? I like Wallner, I'm rooting for Wallner, but I really want him to get that K-rate down to something more manageable and projectable. I'm actually really enthusiastic about Celestino next year. I feel like they'll probably start him in AAA, but if he can continue his hitting success from last year in AAA when he returns to the majors he looks like an almost perfect 4th OF for the Twins. He was called up way too soon last year and wasn't ready for it, but rather than let it implode his season he did a great job of getting back on track when he went back down to AAA, which is where he should have spent most of his time last year anyways. Feels like he's being forgotten about a little because he struggled so badly at the plate when they hauled him up to MLB in utter desperation, but I think he's going to be really valuable especially with Buxton's injury concerns.
  24. jmlease1
    Those are the most likely, but I thought they were allowed 8 total, so I suspect much like the Giants they'll rotate guys through the dugout a little with maybe Diaz getting the most time (since his title does actually say "bench" in it).
  25. jmlease1
    16 Gold Gloves is almost incomprehensible. I wonder if he has them all lined up in his house. Congrats to Hall of Famer Jim Kaat, a heck of a player who was effective for a ridiculously long time and has been a wonderful ambassador for the game.
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