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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Trout has had two years that look like Byron Buxton's whole career. 30 years old is about the time you might expect less durability and less peak performance. Read: Injuries aren't just luck, they involve the ability of each individual's body to withstand the contact and physical exertion inherent in playing the sport. Buck has managed to let outfield walls, slides into bases, fouls off his foot, pitches, and the act of running all land him on the DL. (Often for far longer than expected) If you can't be more durable at 25 than a 30 year old, it doesn't speak well of your own future in your 30s.
  2. TheLeviathan
    I'd prefer less question marks too. Ultimately the FO is banking on the near-ready crop of arms they have. Their future and the team's future hinges on those young arms. I'm not sure acquiring Montas necessarily changes that either, fwiw. (It'd help, certainly, but the eggs are in one basket at this point)
  3. TheLeviathan
    The idea that injuries are driven by luck is not scientifically valid. Some humans are just less resistant to injury than others. (I've linked the science on this before, I can dig it up again if needed) It has nothing to do with their athletic ability or any personal choices, just genetics. "Injury prone" is not something the vast majority of athletes just magically escape out of luck. People will say , yeah, but....Paul Molitor or Robert Smith! Yeah, we remember the exceptions because the horde of dudes who had their careers cut short aren't as memorable. I think our best hope with Buck is to have a good enough plan B and hope his inevitable injuries are short-lived and we only lose 100 or so ABs and not 300 or 400.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Winder is 25. There is no reason to keep him down if the talent is screaming "ready".
  5. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, but you analyzed it and, like, thought about it and stuff. So, it's not fair to make an argument like this.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Gee, can think of some local posters who might have been an inspiration. Well done.
  7. TheLeviathan
    This is the kind of even-handed, nuanced analysis TD is known for!
  8. TheLeviathan
    Live shot of @Nick Nelson working on the SS positional analysis he started:
  9. TheLeviathan
    Haven't the Twins been on the frontline of hiring some gurus to work on defense? I feel like I heard they had a guy who Garver was raving about. Maybe they're banking on some coaching.
  10. TheLeviathan
    And that's if things go poorly this year! It's a move with very little downside and a ton of upside. It's pretty rare to pull of a trade that leaves little long term risk, lots of short term upside, improves your team, and pisses off the Yankees using them as dupes.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Except it really is. If Correa opts in his old agent gets paid and not Boras. That isn't happening. But I'm totally fine with the one year. It's hard for this to be an utter failure unless Correa gets a massive injury.
  12. TheLeviathan
    What financials? Correa will opt out so that Boras gets full pay for his next deal. The Twins will just have a chance to convince him he can win here and pay the piper to keep him. If things go south? Trade him as a high end rental at the deadline. He hits FA next year no matter what. The FO had a budget to work under (as they all do....newsflash for some of our more persistently, purposefully naive posters) and turned theirs into a better roster since the end of the lockout.
  13. TheLeviathan
    And as I linked in the other thread....No one was signing him without an opt out because he switched agents.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Basically....a one year deal is all anyone was getting out of Correa.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Oh please link.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Some sweet, sweet vindication in here for some of us.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Some fair criticism is a good thing, we don't have to be duckies and bunnies. But I agree with you that people weren't willing to see the advantage of moving on from Donaldson. Not only did we dump his entire contract (which...yes...had albatross written all over it), but we got a good fielding, younger 3B with some offensive upside. He's also a gritty, fun clubhouse guy. I was told repeatedly this offseason that there would be no market for Donaldson at full price, much less one that returned value. Well, we found it. Then we turned that savings into the best FA on the market, at a prime position of need. We are a MUCH better team today with Urshela-Correa than we were with Donaldson-IKF.
  18. TheLeviathan
    1) I thought no big free agents ever come here because of the weather? Guess if you pay 'em....they will huh? Can we all agree to bury that talking point forever? 2) He's no Andrelton Simmons but I think he'll be ok. 3) This team has a good defensive infield and has expendable players now in Arraez and possibly others who can be moved for pitching.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Yankees fans are pretty happy to be rid of Sanchez, that's definitely a problem. He was a league average catcher offensively last year but he has pedigree. Maybe the New York thing was weighing on him. Urshela, on the other hand, reads like the Eduardo Escobar of that team. A glue guy with a of grit and personality. Yankees fans are not happy to see him go and are not happy with Cashman for how he treated the exit. (Google "yankees fans urshela", the reads are interesting if nothing else!)
  20. TheLeviathan
    100% agree that this swing could go completely wrong for the team. I guess I just see the upside. Which, IMO, exists even if they do nothing with the money. There is a perfectly plausible scenario where we get 130 OPS+ Urshela and Sanchez returns to form while Donaldson's calf muscles go bonkers again. We win this trade in that very possible scenario. Of course, Urshela could be the 2021 version, Sanchez is a mediocre DH, and Donaldson has two years left in the tank (also perfectly plausible) and we lose this trade. What ultimately makes the difference is if we use that 15M we just freed up, along with the already existing budget room we had, to go splash with a trade and Trevor Story. Then that upside possibility is gravy. So I'm in wait and see mode, just pushing back that this move is an automatic failure.
  21. TheLeviathan
    You have demonstrated no capacity or willingness to have a nuanced discussion of statistics. These posts are disingenuous, you have no interest in actually analyzing any of this data. Only cherry-picking. I'm not interested in that kind of windmill chasing.
  22. TheLeviathan
    Except Donaldson is 35. When the wall hits, it's going to hit pretty hard. Especially for a player like Donaldson who has so much value wrapped up in defense. I readily admit, a big reason I'm leaning positive on this trade is that I think we're wisely getting out early on a guy that is going to look like a 25M albatross. Where I hesitate is seeing how that money gets used.
  23. TheLeviathan
    If everyone was what they were projected to be or were the previous year then we wouldn't have to play the games, Or our recent 100M investment into Buxton is complete nonsense. You gotta take swings at upside. I see the upside here, even if we might disagree greatly about the odds of hitting that upside. I have no doubt this could backfire spectacularly, but I do appreciate that they are shaking up a bad team.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I don't think Urshela or Sanchez are low rated or garbage or anything like that. In two of the last three seasons Urshela had an OPS+ over 130. He was also an above average defender. Sanchez, while being a poor defender, has at times been an elite hitter. And they freed themselves of a problematic contract for a guy I'd bet is an albatross soon. That sort of contract flexibility has a lot of value in baseball right now. Now, what they do with that flexibility....we'll see.
  25. TheLeviathan
    Well, moves are happening quickly here. If we make no other trades or signings than I too would scratch my head at this. It'll be curious to see how Donaldson and Garver perform the next two years, but people should at least consider the idea that we may have gotten out a year early on these guys rather than late. There is significant value in hitting on that timing, if you can hit on it.
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