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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Hope for luck is better than near certain doom.....so, sure, if that's how you want to put it.
  2. TheLeviathan
    Mussina and Radke always struck me as similar in the sense that they were underrated just by virtue of where they played. People didn't appreciate how good they were because they played in low limelight. Mussina was much better than Radke, but I got a similar vibe. I'd vote Mussina in personally. The guy was tough as hell.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Operating based on probabilities has the highest probability of success. "Well, you never know! I might get lucky" is about the worst possible rationale I can think of.
  4. TheLeviathan
    I find it hilarious that Roger Clemens' name has been spelled incorrectly in what seems like 8 different ways in a matter of 1 page. I'm not a stickler, I just think that's funny.
  5. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure he did all that much to deserve this, it really is on the players and their poor behavior. I think Claeys taking the side of the players over administration was absolutely a factor though.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I won't make an argument for Rice, I don't feel he should be in. Just that no other player on that list has a split that dramatic.
  7. TheLeviathan
    I was always a fan of Larry Walker, but his home road splits are stark - more than double that of Bagwell or Guerrero. I think that does (and probably should) factor against him.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Depending upon how the 2B/SS thing shakes out, I expect a pretty good bounce back by Gibson this year.
  9. TheLeviathan
    No one player carries a team, that's true. But I might argue no single player, each game, has more to say about the outcome than the starting pitcher.
  10. TheLeviathan
    Even if you don't think they buy his performance, he still loses value by the first two points. In fact, those become even more important if you don't think 2016's surge did anything for him.
  11. TheLeviathan
    It means you have one young starter to build around and a chance to play Polanco at his natural position with a glove-first guy at short. We simply will not contend for anything without adding talented pitchers. That is going to have to happen via trading and drafting. So why not use your highest value asset that also has minimal chance of being here much longer? That's what smart teams do, play the highest probabilities. Recognize what you are and don't pretend to be anything else. Not dealing Dozier means we had to settle for a much worse probability of immediate and future success.
  12. TheLeviathan
    Even if I believe in base runs it's still a 90 loss team who has only one meaningful starter that it could hope improves dramatically. Retaining Dozier means we also field half an infield with some serious question marks as well. (And Dozier is not stud himself)
  13. TheLeviathan
    How in the heck is that contradictory? Yes, I'm acknowleding it's not a 100% certainty (because he could, conceivably, his 100 straight home runs to start the year, it's just bloody unlikely), but it's as close to that as I can imagine. I would suggest to you that he goes on some binge early in the season is not "as likely" as my suggestion that he ages and has less team control. It also flies in the face of how valued position players have been mid-season the last five years. So if you're correct that his second half didn't impact his value, then his age and contract are even larger factors and make it even more important to deal him now.
  14. TheLeviathan
    We lost 103 games and will return virtually the same pitching staff. We may improve to a 90 loss team with luck....but that's still a 90 loss team. by the time we get this thing righted he's going to have dramatically less value.
  15. TheLeviathan
    No, I don't know, but it is vastly more probable he has less value. Id call it a near certainty.
  16. TheLeviathan
    Without serious pitching reinforcements I think I have better odds of achieving time travel than the Twins competing with Dozier performing.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Maybe. I don't know enough to project that. But I'd rather gamble on DeLeon than bleed out Dozier for a few more 90 loss seasons.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Of course no one player or one position is going to magically turn us around. But an ace goes a lot further than some random #4 starter who is ok rather than lousy. Star players make up ground in a hurry and I think you're underselling that by characterizing it as merely a bonus. While I don't want to just dump Dozier for anything, I also know the odds of him being remotely this value are slightly north of 0%. Not finding a way to maximize that now will represent a real loss we might pay for over the course of half a decade.
  19. TheLeviathan
    He doesn't need to "fall apart" to lose value. He just has to do all of these things that are guaranteed to happen: 1) Age 2) Have less team control 3) Not have a career year It's not "if" Dozier will lose value, the only questions are really how quickly he'll lose value and how much he'll lose.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I would call the Ace the sundae not the cherry. What we've been missing for the longest time it top end pitching. Having one isn't just a bonus, it's an enormous difference maker.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Fullmer was an injury prone player who was the Mets 7th best prospect. (He was 98th on the 100 list at midseason before being traded) Cessa was 16th, in the Mets system. That's akin to us taking Buehler and Stewart. I would say most people are looking for more of a haul than that.
  22. TheLeviathan
    They didn't wait, they decided to firesale. And they got two pieces back. My point was that it wasn't a "haul" by any stretch.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Gambling on Dozier's streakiness worries me considerably. But I question whether position players are all that valuable any more mid-season. When's the last one significant move? Cespedes? And that wasn't necessarily a "haul". I think off-season is the time to do this and I consider it a mini-disaster if we can't find a way to make that happen. We'll have lost a considerable asset's peak value.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Considering no position player has gone for any kind of substantial price mid-season for awhile (that I could find), "longshot" may be generous. If we don't deal him now we're either keeping him for two years and playing out the string or trading him at a much reduced value at some point in the future.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I would vote "Joe Mauer spontaneously combusting while watching a first pitch strike"
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