TheLeviathan
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Everything posted by TheLeviathan
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I sorted by team leaders on fangraphs and then compared 2015 to 2016. I'm not a huge believer in all of those stats, but if you go stat by stat it is almost universal by those metrics that we were worse. I'd like us to play a much better defensive SS next to Sano than Polanco has appeared to be so far. I think that will do a world of good. But even then we're hoping for a below average starting staff given the talents available to us without adding upside arms.
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Perhaps, by most advanced measures the Twin's defense dramatically fell off from 2015 to 2016. It was bad in 2015, catastrophic in 2016. Now I believe Castro will help. I also think a full time OF of Bux-Kep-Rosario helps. But keeping Dozier gives us a left side of the infield I am much more unsure of.
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There is more than one way to skin a cat. And once you're talking about getting from the NLCS to the World Series you are talking a margin for improvement that is really difficult to predict or pin down. What they need to do that on April 1st make look a lot different on July 1st. Injuries and a variety of other things could make something else a far more pressing need than 2B. They're a WS contender without Dozier. They may be better off hoarding assets for July to improve their odds rather than doing it while there is still snow on the ground.
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Well, we may disagree about what to expect from Dozier. Caesar Hernandez is likely to not produce as much as Dozier but he would be a better fit for them and be a longer term fit. And he may even cost less despite his age and control. Forsythe and Harrison may be options as well. Not as productive as Dozier, but likely less cost as well. By midseason Kinsler may be down for a trade if Detroit is out of it. Segura may get re-flipped.
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All good points, my guess is the Dodgers see Dozier as a nice patch for two years, but I doubt they see him as anything longer than that either. Which may play into this as well. 2B is a position deep enough around the league that it isn't unreasonable for them to think they may get better value than Dozier for DeLeon later in the year if they so choose. But that is also a risky move on their part with JDL's injuries.
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No one is saying it was not valuable. But it wasn't valuable enough to overcome those run prevention issues. And likely won't be for the remainder of his contract. So I guess the same question that keeps being asked is asked again - if not by trade, particularly of Dozier - than how does our run prevention get better? How do we improve our pitching? Hell, how do we improve run prevention with a left side of the infield set to be Sano and Polanco? Only Willihammer has backed up his stance by actually responding. I wish more of you who keep saying "we'll fix it while Dozier is here!" would give us a roadmap, even a general one, for doing that. Instead we get that same line thrown out there and then people slink away from backing it up with some actual ideas.
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Copollela made a helluva move with Shelby Miller. You could probabyl throw the Heyward and Upton deals on there too. Hell, he's got quite a few. We could probably come up with more if I felt like googling the hell out of every GM's history. Unfortunately, not all situations call for the same actions. Not all GMs walk into the same situations or have the same choices in front of them. I'm not sure a "one size fits all" pattern fits for that reason. A smart front office needs to be able to read their situation, their assets, their needs, and make good decisions. One of my biggest issues with Ryan was that he was too much of a "one size fits all" pattern sort of guy. That said, I agree with your points about the new FO needing to be careful establishing themselves. At the same time, the nature of this asset and our starting pitching needs necessitate action now. At least on this one front.
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I would be thrilled to get Javier Vasquez back as the centerpiece of a deal.
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Well you are admittedly down on JDL. Which is a fair stance, there are red flags for sure. But I tend to think a top 30 pitching prospect being added over Hughes/Meija is a rather sizable upgrade in upside.
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If we dealt for DeLeon I'd like to see this rotation: Berrios-DeLeon-Gibson-Santana-Santiago with Meija and May in the mix for the fifth spot as well. I'd probably prefer May. I also hope Santana is dealt in July.
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If you are trading Sano and Berrios for Quintana (something I would bet you are in the vast minority in favor of doing) then you need to take Berrios out of your plans for the rotation. You should read up on what was being asked for around the league for him. It rivaled Sale. I do appreciate you being open abuot this though. Most people who toss out the "we should just fix it" aren't brave enough it seems to face the reality of what it would take. Though I don't get why we'd wince at trading Dozier and then leap at trading Sano and Berrios. I can't get behind that. As for our second point, I'm not underestimating those player's upside, I'm being realistic about what to expect from them in 2017. For at least half of those young guys they may not even pitch in the big leagues while Dozier is a Twin and if they do they are probably rookies when they do. I wouldn't expect much, that's something we frequently do unfairly here - expect rookies to hit their ceiling right away. And DeLeon is in the rotation because I highly, highly doubt Phil Hughes is a capable SP out of spring training. And we may not want him there anyway.
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Do you have any idea what the price tag is on Quintana? Think: Sale. That ain't happening. So you think we build a contending rotation out of "giving a shot" to Santiago, Hughes, and May and then hoping two or three young guys figure it out? I'm amazed anyone could type this plan and feel reassured it would work. For that I give you kudos, but there is enormous risk here (young pitchers, injuries, or unprovens all over) and very little upside. This plan's ceiling is "doesn't totally suck". No thanks.
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If I'm them I am much more concerned about if he transitions well to the NL. Many hitters have seemed to struggle for a year adjusting to new parks and pitchers.
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I would also like to hear this. Mostly I seem to recall hearing "they have to be creative" which is, pretty much, a non-answer. I also would expect it to be pretty low risk (somehow) since that also appears to be a criticism.
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Fair point. If I was going to deal them from a position of depth I'd just choose a different target than Dozier. One with more of a track record.
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Then you and I need to talk about buy low and sell high, If I'm the Dodgers, I'd rather give Kinsler a contract extension than overpay for Dozier on the chance 2016 wasn't a fluke.
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My understanding is that we were asked for Garza/Baker and Kubel and we rebuffed it. Maybe my recollection is wrong. Either way, I think you at least see my point - given what Dozer is (a guy with one elite season and a lot of inconsistency) we might want to temper our expectations a bit. If the reverse was true, we'd laugh at the very idea of being asked for Bellinger and Deleon. We'd block the damn number from calling us back we'd be so insulted at the idea. So yeah, it needs to hurt the Dodgers a bit more IMO, but probably not much more.
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It would make a lot of sense. Unless the Dodgers just refuse to pay that much for a guy based on a career year. I know this is a Twins forum, but if the situation were reversed - what would we say if we analyzed Brian Dozier? Would we pay a Top 25 prospect and another in the Top 100? Maybe we'll get that, but the notion that it's a "bad deal" if it's anything less strikes me as a fundamental misread of the value of Brian Dozier. A misread we may later regret.
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Maybe we never really moved past this point.
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When that number comes out I'm on my way, life savings in hand, to bet the #/!$ out of that under.
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So now a reputable source is saying the Twins want DeLeon and Bellinger huh? That makes way more sense than this 1:1 crap. Also puts these conversations in a different light if true.
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Not moving Dozier compounds the problems thoygh. You let an asset languish when you had an opportunity to maximize it. Again, how many times need we learn our lesson on this? Sometimes doing nothing is the worst idea. Even if you don't love the return, the status quo is bound to fail. We can't pitch. You can't win if you can't pitch. And our best internal pitching options won't be here until Dozier is likely gone. Not trading him is going to feel like Perkins does now. Or like the Sano in the outfield thing did a month into last year. Some of us were screaming about how terrible that idea was and the tone of the counter arguments rings all too familiar here. By many of the same posters too. If this deal doesn't happen, we will rue it later. I guess I would've hoped last year had taught or team and our community here some lessons.
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So now a top 25 prospect isn't enough we need, what? Multiple top 50 specs? What's enough?
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All the reporters are recycling the same mush mouthed report by LEN. I don't buy it, it doesn't pass the smell test. Dozier will age right? His contract will reduce in team control right? It's not speculation his value will decrease, it's near certain fact. Unless you think he's going to hit 50 home runs or agree to an extension at the same price or some other ridiculous notion he will lose value.
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And yet many experts disagree with you.
