Tim

exactly what happened .. I'm sorry what is the question??

The Twins had "one very good starter" in Berrios this previous year. Didn't seem to change the rotation too much. Ober and Ryan, sure ... Still a lot of work to do.

They will have money and could absolutely go after a couple big name guys. But just because you got money to spend, does not mean spend it. I'll use the 2013 - 2016 Cubs as an example.. The Cubs core of top prospects were all strategically on the same development timeline. Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, Russell, Soler, etc. all were on timelines that would roughly have them on track to enter FA at the same time. They understood that once those guys have proven they can perform at the major league level, the front office is on the clock and its on them to bring in a supporting cast in FA. Aside from guys entering the early years of arbitration, they didn't have long term contractual commitments on the books. This model enabled them to sign guys like Lester, Heyward, Zobrist, Lackey, etc. While some of those signings didn't work out, they won a world series. They were able to grab the top players on the market because they were patient and knew that when the time came, they had the cash to go all in and sign whoever they wanted for their championship window. The Twins are a bit of a mess and realistically a few years away from being competitve. If you line them up against this model in terms on money on the books and who their core is, it's tough to find similarities. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't try and replicate this blueprint to some extent.

Correa is literally the odds on favorite to win the gold glove at SS. Also first in defensive runs saved at short, no one cares about his past. Clearly, at age 26, he developed with the glove and is the great SS that everyone has projected him to be.. Really not that uncommon, especially at short, for it to take time figuring it out defensively. Admit defeat and move on my guy.

Correa is the only true shortstop long term and one id feel most confident signing longterm. I’d keep an eye on what the dodgers end up doing with Corey Seager. If they end up with an extension, I’d look to lock in on Trea Turner next offseason.

Gausman is the only top tier pitcher I would have confidence in throwing money at long term ... I do like Stroman and clearly he has the track record, but his frame worries me. If the Padres are serious about shedding salary, Yu Darvish at what is essentially at 2/40 million deal is my favorite option.

Buxton and Garver could very well be moved

I literally acknowledge that his value is at his absolute lowest. It goes with out saying he won’t be ranked that high to begin next year.

I'd really want to hear your rational for trading a former no. 1 pick and top 20 prospect in all of baseball, who missed an entire year with a torn ACL, right now .. I mean you'd be selling at the absolute lowest value. As for Martin, they just traded their "ace pitcher" for him 3 months ago., they clearing see him as apart of their future plans.

Well actually in terms of WAR, the gap between Arraez and Polanco is only 1.4 .. Yes, you lose power, power at 2nd is a luxury.... But to say we don't have anyone close to replace him at 2nd is just inaccurate. They also just traded their "ace" for a top 30 prospect who's pretty much major league ready and will most likely end up at 2nd. There is no such thing as an underrated player to major league front offices. The statistics I listed above justify that over a 3 year sample size, all public information.. Underrated in terms of popularity amongst fans? maybe I guess. This is a big picture trade to benefit the growth of the organization in the long run. Having a power hitting 2nd basemen is a luxury for a playoff contender, not a rebuilding club.

For as much as a buzzkill the Twins 2021 season was, Jorge Polanco gave many Twins fans a reason to watch. Breaking out in 2019, Polanco hit 22 HRs and drove in 79 RBI with a slash line of .295/.356/.485. Polanco scuffled during the 2020 covid shortened season but was also playing with an ankle injury that required offseason surgery and ultimately a shift to second base. The ankle clean up and position switch seemed to have paid off as Polanco had a career season in 2021. Overall he finished the season with a .269 AVG and an OPS of .826. Oh, and 33 bombs + 98 RBI. That's good for a WAR of 4.8 according to baseballrefrence. One would think now would be a poor time for the Twins to move Jorge Polanco in a trade. The stacked free agent class includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Javier Baez. Teams looking for a shortstop or second basemen will have plenty of options to chose from. But at what cost? Carlos Correa and Corey Seager are 1A and 1B in the class. Both are expected to receive contracts upwards of 260 million. Trevor Story had a down year offensively, but still grades out as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He also is only 28 and teams will convince themselves he returns to form at the plate... 150-175 million sound right? Marcus Semien's fantastic 2021 campaign probably netted him a deal north of 115 million, as he was a top 5 hitter in baseball for much of the season. Javier Baez is a complete toss up for me. He is incredibly streaky at the plate, but got hot during his stint with the Mets and switched his approach at the plate. His ability to move around the diamond defensively and play a solid shortstop, second, and third is still a huge asset. You can't deny the flair and energy he brings to a team as well, star power means tickets... I'd guess a team buys in and pays close to 100 million. While there are plenty of options teams can go on the open market, none will sign cheap. Aside from potentially Baez, you aren't bringing any of those players in for less than 100 mil, at the minimum. Fortunately, for the teams hesitant to commit that type of money, there is another option. Jorge Polanco **Before I'm slandered below for suggesting the Twins should trade their 2021 MVP, consider the facts.** Contract - Jorge Polanco, currently 27, is signed through 2025 at what is essentially a 4 year 35.5 million dollar contract. When you stack that up against what the market is going to command for the available options, that deal is an absolute bargain. Internal Replacements - Second Base is really a position of strength for the Twins. Luis Arraez, still only 24 and under team control until 2026, has a career .313 AVG and .374 OBP over 275 games .. Yes, you are missing out on the power, but baseballreference had his 2021 WAR at 3.4, so by no means is it a massive downgrade. He isn't arb. eligible until 2023 as well.. Nick Gordon or the crown jewel in the Berrios deal, Austin Martin, could also be guys that could step into the position at some point next year. State of The Organization - The Twins need to look at this an opportunity to try and expedite the rebuilding process. Reality is 2022 is going to be a lost year, regardless of whether Polanco is on the roster or not. Is 2023 the year? Who knows, a lot will need to go right for the Twins between now and then .. But at that point you've only lost value on a player that will have 2 years remaining on his steal of a contract. If you are hesitant to put Polanco in the same tier as the players in this upcoming FA class, Since 2019, here's where Polanco stacks up against the top middle infielders. That's a 3 year sample size of productivity that puts him square in the discussion offensively as a top tier middle infielder. Yes I am aware that some players on the list were injured, but that's apart of the game. Polanco was too. Who might be interested? The best fit for Polanco would be an organization that is entering their window to compete for a championship. Given how cheap his contract is, teams would have the ability to sign free agent starting pitching, which typically works out better, than say giving a position player like Javy Baez a 5 year / 100 million dollar deal. That model seems to have paid off for the Astros as well as the Dodgers to some extent. What teams fit that bill? I highly doubt an organization will trade for Polanco with intentions of playing him at short. So i'll highlight just teams with a second base need, There's a few, here are my favorite options. The Mariners, who received a 0.3 WAR from the second base position this past year, would be a great trade partner for the Twins. They don't really have a solidified plan at 2nd and on the prospect side it's slim. Ranked with Baseball Americas top farm system, they have plenty of intriguing pitching prospects to deal from. Emerson Hancock, Matt Brash, George Kirby, and Brandon Williamson all look to be be starters long-term.. (I believe Brash will be the best) .... What about Noelvi Marte? one can dream. Miami has reportedly been getting pressure from ownership to win now and could be a possibility. This would mean they are comfortable moving Jazz Chisholm from 2nd to Short .. If they are, the Marlins hands down have the most pitching prospect depth to deal from in all of baseball. Max Meyer, Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, and Jack Eder (though recovering from TJ) all could be in play ... (I'll take Perez of the 4 please). If the Blue Jays prioritize Robbie Ray over Marcus Semien, count them in as a Polanco fit. Toronto is right in their go for it window and may lean toward having a proven veteran to replace the production rather than banking on a prospect. A package of Orlevis Martinez/Jordan Gorshans and Nate Pearson doesn't sound all too bad. __ The Twins have a lot of work to do if they wanna get on back on track in the coming years.. This is all speculation, though I think it certainly is a route the Twins have to at least explore this winter. Regardless, of what you want the Twins to do with Polanco, there is no denying he would bring back a haul. That might be the best thing for the Twins sustaining long-term success. *Also, don't check Baseballtradevalues.com for the prospects I mentioned. It rarely is correct, as most of us learned with the deals that occurred at the deadline.

Long shot, but Eury Perez would be my top target from the Marlins. They are so flush with pitching and with ownership pushing to go into win now mode, they may be inclined to part with a much younger prospect than guys with a closer ETA. Would also ask about Jack Eder.. Had TJ in like July i think, but was absolutely dominating. I like shooting for the high upside play here with the Marlins

I think you have to let him play it out. He's such a boom or bust player with the injuries .. At the moment you'd be selling low and eating a TON of money for not much in return. The best option the Twins have his to pray that he stays healthy the next few years and hope a team at the deadline in the talks themselves into taking on the remaining portion of his contract. It's not like the Twins are getting a player that hampers them when he plays too .. Still a very solid option at 3rd.

Torres is not a shortstop .. His power has essentially deteriorated since 2019 ( juiced ball ). If anything, I would be really interested in trading for Dansby Swanson. The Braves are thought to be considering going after one of the top SS in this upcoming FA class. Not sure what a package would look like but he is definitely an intriguing option. I've seen a few comments now on different forums / blogs about the Twins having internal solutions at SS .. They quite honestly have none. Royce Lewis is not a shortstop and really hasn't done much to prove he has made any strides defensively at the position.

I was replying to a comment that suggested he was overrated. It's subjective ... Though some arguments for specific players fitting an overrated/underrated narrative are poor...

Luis Arraez has a career .313 AVG / .376 OBP / .781 OPS, while playing essentially league average defense at multiple positions. He's also 24 years old and under team control until 2026. That seems like a pretty underrated player to me. I truly don't understand how that is overated for the type of player and role he plays.

Honestly at the time, Happ was a lot safer of a signing than taking a flier on Kluber. Happ had pitched to an ERA below 4, 5/6 previous years. No one expected him to be as bad as he was. Kluber was coming off surgery and hadn't pitched professionally in 2 years. Interesting thoughts on the Walker signing .. Maybe there is a conspiracy .. This comes back to depth. The front office knew that they couldn't get by with AAA guys making spot starts so went after quantity. I believe this is the case for the previous years as well.

really cool exercise, nice work putting this together! Definitely a great argument you have. But I think the issue more has to do with identifying pitching, not necessarily spending. Teams hit on lower tier free agent pitching every year, unfortunately the Twins haven't. While none of these guys are true aces, they've all pitched extremely well and could've absolutely been had this past offseason if the Twins decided to chose them. Anthony Desclafani - 1/6 mil - 11-6 / 3.24 / 141 IP/ 132 SO Robbie Ray - 1/8 mil - 11-5 / 2.60 / 166 IP / 212 SO Carlos Rodon - 1/3 mil - 11-5 / 2.41 / 119 IP / 168 SO Taijuan Walker - 2/20 mil - 7-9 / 4.15 / 138 IP / 129 SO Obviously it doesn't always work out. Paxton, Kluber, Quintana, Richards, etc. all signed similar 8-12mil 1 year deals and haven't produced. I think that's just the game though with free agent starting pitching. I think a big part of teams choosing to go this route has to do with looking ahead to future free agent classes and when to allocate money to the starting rotation. A lot of it is luck and that goes for the mid tier category as well. It's not easy to find solid starting pitching and if you can hit on a deal like the ones listed above, why risk it. Identifying talent is the issue .. or luck. cant decide yet.

Yes. Will the Twins field a good starting rotation? probably not. Definitely not actually.. The only starter I would consider paying "ace money" to is Kevin Gausman. So if that means 5/115 or whatever it is, sure. Other than that, pass on the stromans, rodons, etc .. Could see them dealing Polanco, Arraez, or Jeffers / Garver for a young starter .. Marlins? We'll see .. I like Kwang Hyun Kim as a fit in the more mid tire of starters.

Emmanuel Rodriguez most likely

Jake Cave is pretty bad and has been for a while now. Obviously it stings more to know the Twins gave up Luis Gil for him and Lamonte Wade was essentially given away to keep him around.

Kumar Rocker ?

Kevin Gausman is the only guy i'd throw Berrios money at.

You are aware that every single player, prior to playing a major league game, is considered a prospect, right? These are 2 very good, young players. Believe it or not, Berrios was once a prospect!

I think the Padres are about to get desperate. They lost Scherzer, lost Berrios, and are going to scramble. Preller won't stand put and knows he went all in before the season. Maeda, Rogers, Buxton all could be a fit. Twins could take on Meyers or Hosmer to really maximize the return.