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Tim

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Everything posted by Tim

  1. Tim
    Eury Perez should be target #1 for the Twins in any and all deals with the Marlins
  2. Tim
    5/135 for Seager, might need to add 3 years and 100 million to that
  3. Tim
    The idiots who designed WAR ultimately run every front office in baseball. I think there might be something to it. This is .. nvm. The initial debate of whether Arraez was a good hitter or not has nothing to do with Polanco, Sano, or whoever's OPS, so these comparisons don't really do much here. Right?
  4. Tim
    There's a stat for this called WAR that is essentially used for this exact simulation. Arraez team wins
  5. Tim
    It's not. How do you think a team constructed solely on OPS would do ?? a lineup of 9 Joey Gallo's or 9 MIguel Sano's ... Not really a recipe for success. Now what if you were to do that same exercise, but throw in 3 or 4 hitters like Luis Arraez ?? That's a lineup capable of scoring a lot more runs. You cant use one stat to look at a hitter's makeup and skillset.
  6. Tim
    what is the league average for .OBP and batting .AVG do the thing where you compared Arraez's OPS to league average for those categories too.
  7. Tim
    for the record, that's his entire career avg. Are his most recent numbers suggesting he's declining so much to the point that he isn't capable of that again? I am making the assumption you don't believe he is a "damn good hitter" because of his lack power, correct? can you explain to me why you don't believe he is?
  8. Tim
    Thank you dan .. I really have hard time understanding how his value is lost just because he doesn't hit for power. The man is an absolutely fantastic MLB hitter and there really isn't much debate for it.
  9. Tim
    a banjo hitter ? what the hell is that hahaha .. are guys that put the ball in play with a .313 / .374 all of a sudden players you don't want in the lineup?
  10. Tim
    I like the part where you completely ignored the .313. avg / .374 obp ... that was a nice touch.
  11. Tim
    I believe many on this site tend to overlook just how good Luis Arraez has been. Over 3 seasons, age 22-24, Arraez has a career .313 avg / .374 obp / .777 ops That's a really damn good major league hitter, that is still developing.
  12. Tim
    Austin Martin could very well end up at 2nd .. I will continue to say this exercise reaffirms my belief that now would be the time to sell high on Polanco for pitching. Arraez likely doesn't bring back what you'd aim. Deal from positions of strength, depth is there.
  13. Tim
    .The Dozier era and Polanco situation are 2 fairly different things
  14. Tim
    This. You are spot on, I actually think that Baseballtradevalues has him slightly lower than what he should be. He would bring back a bigger return than Berrios IMO
  15. Tim
    a 4 WAR power hitting 2nd basemen with 4 years of team control left at an avg of about 8 mil a year will with out a question get you a haul. Mariners do not have a prospect for the position. Like none, not sure where you got that. Marlins ownership has expressed their desire to win now and will likely shift Jazz to short. Surplus of young pitching to deal from.
  16. Tim
    Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Blue Jays potentially ... If a contending team were to add Polanco, 90% would improve significantly. Check out WAR .. and literally any other stats with 2nd basemen around the league. You'll get a haul. Posted about this topic last week, check it out!
  17. Tim
    Did you ever consider the reason its dramatically lower?? Because teams see the value in locking these players into extensions that are 8 + years and massive money to avoid a bidding war. The Dodgers (betts) and Mets (lindor) literally gave up assets to hand out contracts to players of that caliber. I apologize for condescension but if you are going to be arrogant and not even acknowledge your wrong, it makes having a healthy debate difficult.
  18. Tim
    2019 Bryce Harper - 330 Mil / 13 Years Manny Machado - 300 Mil / 10 years 2020 Gerrit Cole - 324 Mil / 9 years Stephen Strasburg - 245 Mil / 7 years ... Teams do seem really reluctant to spend big and commit long term to top players. Have a nice rest of your day.
  19. Tim
    Your knit picking now to fit your argument. Absolutely none of those players come close to the caliber of player Seager is. Springer and Realmuto? is that your argument? if Springer got 6 /150 at age 31, what would he have gotten if he were on the open market at 27 like Seager? Now players that do fit into the same tier as Seager - Lindor, Betts, Arenado, etc .. I don't even understand how you are still trying to defend your take.
  20. Tim
    27 year old short stops who have a career .870 ops and a WS MVP don’t hit the open market too often. that’s about all the context needed. what were the terms on Lindor’s extension about 7 months ago? What about Mookie Betts and Nolan Arenado the year before? Apologies, but your wrong
  21. Tim
    There’s about a 0% chance Corey Seager signs a 4/108 mil deal to be a free agent at age 32. Scott Boars blocks your number after that. there’s already talk about a potential move in the next few years to 2nd or 3rd. Look at the issue Semien is facing right now at 32. Agents know the history. After a new CBA is in place, teams always spend huge money. No one is signing until that’s done, then seager is getting the brinks backed up
  22. Tim
    Yea if i was wrong i would give you the benefit of the doubt. The Rays are in a league of their own and that’s factoring in all professional sport franchises. Funny thing is, they repeat that rebuild model on a micro scale year after year.. With the financial limitations, they understood free agency wasn’t an option. To combat the issue, trading key players prior to the expensive years in ARB or moving them if on a team friendly deal was their solution (2-3 years of control remaining) Moving these pieces early enabled them to maximize value for either top prospects or players w longer control.. (it’s about to come full circle) ….All in an effort to support their next wave of homegrown talent…. It literally is the exact same premise, but on an annual basis rather than a 5 year project… it’s incredible. (Now the scouting w International signings and draft classes is beyond me) Again, you are proving my point how small market clubs win vs a big payroll team. How about we agree on this, there’s 2 1/2 ways to win in baseball. The Giants though is a fun story, I suppose a team constructed of wounded old players like that is bound to get lucky every 10-15 years.
  23. Tim
    Here’s the difference, financially baseball is unlike any sport. TV deals, large markets, no salary cap, etc. There’s a huge discrepancy when you factor that very large aspect of the game into this argument.. Some sites include the Scherzer deferred $$, some don't .. Point is, it was very high. Jays signed 2 guys to 1 year deals for a combined 25 mil and both had MVP/ CY young caliber seasons. Your right, probably will be worse. I'd love to go into off-season's knowing that is an effective strategy. But what you and i both know is that's luck, banking on crossing your fingers for a dream season like the Giants is fun when your living that 1 season. What is a model for success, is building a team the right way, the results are black and white.
  24. Tim
    Yes, the Cubs and Astros both won championships using similar methods. That literally is the exact point I'm trying to get across. What other organizations have attempted a similar model in the past 10 years? The Royals, worked well for them too .. Clearly it has a high success rate as we have now gone 3/3 in what I'm trying to get across. Look around right now .. Teams see this and are replicating it. I don't have the time to dig into the next 5 years and how these rosters are constructed but I can guarantee a very small number is committed White Sox. They look to be in great shape with Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada all under arbitration or team friendly deals until 2025, Blue Jays Mariners They all are going to be around for a very long time, all in thanks to this method. Padres kinda did it, but they screwed up and did exactly what everyone is clamoring for the Twins to do and spend money just to be semi competitive. Now they are stuck trying to unload an owed 60 mil combined between Wil Meyers and Eric Hosmer, Now you are right, the other way to win in baseball is to have a payroll within the top 2 like the other 3 world series champs you didn't mention. (2020 Dodgers, 2019 Nationals, and 2018 Red Sox) There's 2 ways to win in baseball. It's have a ____ ton of money OR rebuild and support your core with top FA's when the window is open. —— To think tanking is the only way this can be achieved is ridiculous btw.. Joe Ryan and Austin Martin + SWR, who are top 50 prospects in baseball, will be in Minnesota together next year and some point will be apart of the next core. All will enter arb roughly at the same time. Oh, Larnach, Kirilloff, Ober too.
  25. Tim
    I included 2013 because that was Anthony Rizzo's first full season season at the major league level. Kind of the kick off to that era….
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