Tim

In a nutshell, its actually not too soon to make the decision of retool vs rebuild. They don't have the option or time to see if these prospects can perform at the major league level. Truly, aside from real prospects in Miranda and Winder, not sure who else we might be taking other than a handful of 28 year old relievers. Don't worry we'll see those guys soon enough. They will never, ever, get more back in a trade of Berrios or Rogers then if they decide to trade either in the next 3 weeks. its 1.5 season of control vs. 1 season if its the winter, or .5 if is next summer at the deadline. I agree with unloading expiring contracts, that is a given. But in Donaldson's case, no team is taking on that contract, you are eating a significant amount of remaining money. He also playing pretty damn well with a .837 ops .. it's not like you need to dump him cause he's underperforming. With that said, you are advocating for competing in 2022. Jose Miranda, who I assume you are referring to as one of the prospects being blocked, has played a grand total of 8 games at AAA and was barley cracking the top 20 in the organization after being here for 5 years. Yes he's been great, fantastic really. But what if Jose Miranda struggles in those final 2 months? Then you've created another hole at 3rd, paying another team to play Donaldson, with no true back up options, and the plan to compete in 2022.

Thanks for bringing that point up about the potential minor leaguer relievers that could fill a spot next year. Hamilton, Cano, and Vazquez will all be going into next season as 27 year old's with either little MLB experience or none. While they all have posted solid numbers to this point in the season, specifically Hamilton, its hard to count on a guy like that for next year and say yep lets pencil him in. But to your point, the callups over the next 2 months will be important to evaluate who they are. As for Moran, he definitely is intriguing, But with the shoulder injuries and never having pitching above AA, its a crapshoot. I hope one of them can step in and give the Twins that boost.

Yea I mean I kinda leaned toward that being my preference throughout the entire piece.

I think the Twins absolutely know where they stand with both Berrios and Buxton right now. Think of it from the players perspective. If im Berrios why would I sign an extension right now? I'm having a career year, I can hit the open market in a season and a half, and might even get better between that period. If im Buxton, I was on pace for an MVP prior to getting hurt, what if I stay healthy all of next year and win an mvp... There's also the case he wants completely out because of the service time manipulation a few years ago.. They've both bet on themselves to this point, why settle now?

The conversation on this site as of late has been centered around should we trade player X, should we keep player Y, etc. We don’t have much else to talk about. If we are talking about trading assets, especially ones that are controllable and add value to your club next year and beyond, it raises the question – are you re-tooling or are you re-building? Now I know that a lot of people might say its too early to even think about what next years team might look like, it might be. But if your argument is “re-tool” then we need to look at what that might look like. We all are aware that Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are set to become free agents following next season. Contract extensions for both Buxton and Berrios seems incredibly unlikely at this point. Both players have their flaws but are absolutely pieces you can build around. Taylor Rogers is one of the best relievers in the game, but is set to become a free agent, is going on age 32, and the front office has never paid more than 6.5 million for a reliever aside from two occasions (Reed and Colome) But throw all that out the window. What if they decide to give next year a go with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers? What does a retool look like? I am ignoring the return that the pending free agents might be able to get you at the upcoming deadline, mostly because It’s not a given that can contribute next year. It could be a few low A prospects for all we know. I will also be using John Bonnes’s article on how much the Twins might have to potentially spend next year, that you can read here, as reference for my spending – 45 million dollars. The lineup, bench, and pitching staff I have put together is just a projection and very well could be different then what the Twins or you think it might look like. Please don’t roast me too harshly in the comments. Lineup Byron Buxton CF Max Kepler RF Trevor Larnach LF Josh Donaldson 3rd SS Jorge Polanco 2nd Alex Kirilloff 1st Mitch Garver C DH Andrelton Simmons SS Nelson Cruz DH Bench Luis Arraez UTI. Ryan Jeffers C Miguel Sano 1st/DH Nick Gordon UTI Rotation José Berríos SP Kenta Maeda SP SP SP Bailey Ober SP Michael Pineda JA Happ Bullpen Taylor Rogers Closer Jorge Alcala Set up Set up Tyler Duffey Set up Caleb Thielbar Mid Mid Mid Long Alex Colome Hansel Robles Here are the holes the Twins are going to need to fill entering 2022 season. Shortstop Designated Hitter Starter x2 Bullpen x4 __________ I am spending most of my 45 million dollar budget I have available on the rotation, as I view that as the biggest need the Twins have if they hope to compete in 2022. So, forgive me for slightly skimming over DH and Shortstop. Let’s start with how the Twins can round out the empty spots in the rotation and bullpen with what they presently have in the organization and who they could potentially add from outside the organization. Internal Options Name AGE LVL ERA GS W/L IP K’s BB’s Jhoan Duran * 23 AAA 5.06 4 0-3 16.0 22 13 Josh Winder 24 AAA 1.94 11 4-0 60.1 73 12 Jordan Balazovic 22 AA 4.44 6 1-1 24.1 33 8 Matt Canterino * 23 A+ 1.00 4 1-0 18.0 35 3 Blayne Enlow * 22 A+ 1.84 3 1-1 14.1 23 6 These are the Twins top 5 pitching prospects Duran is currently on the shelf with elbow soreness, something you never want to hear. The Twins shut him down for 6 weeks and we have 4 weeks remaining. To this point control has been a huge issue at AAA for him. Josh Winder has been fantastic. One of the lone bright spots for the Twins pitching prospects this season and I think you could expect him to contribute on some level in 2022. Balazovic has only made 6 starts this season working back from injury. Currently at AA, he has yet to make it through 6ip in any start this season. Canterino has not pitched since May but was having a great year at A+. I have not seen any reports on what a timetable looks like for his return. Enlow was off to a great start as well, but elbow soreness led to Tommy John so he’s out for the foreseeable future. It is only July, so things can change. But the top pitching prospects the Twins have are all dealing with stunted development timelines due to injuries. Duran is not coming back till August and has the dreaded elbow soreness so who knows what that means long term. He has not pitched more than 16 innings at AAA. Balazovic is still at AA and has only thrown 24 innings. Canterino has not pitched since May and Enlow is done for 2022 and 2023. Josh Winder is the only prospect you have of the 5 that has pitched well above the AA level in 2021. That's 1/5 of your top 5 pitching prospects you can truly count on to make some sort of impact in 2022 for the Twins. I do want to say that I believe in this group a lot, I think they all will be assets the Twins can count on for years to come. But is that in 2022? Don’t bank on it. Name AGE ERA GS W/L IP K’s BB’s Lewis Thrope 25 5.59 6 (23g) 0-2 14.0 46 24 Devin Smeltzer 25 4.26 7 (19g) 4-2 69.2 56 18 Griffin Jax 26 8.66 1 (5g) 1-1 17.2 14 8 Randy Dobnak 26 4.85 20 (32g) 9-11 118.2 75 30 "candidates" This was worse than I thought. Not really prospects, more so “candidates” to fill out spots for the 2022 Twins pitching staff. Anyways, I just went with their career numbers because all 4 players have been hurt throughout the 2021 season. I don’t even want to write out the numbers they have posted thus far, it’s painful. If you confidently think one of these guys will help you win games during the 2022 season, I’d love to hear why in the comments below. Anyways, moving on. Here is a look at what the Twins could bring in from outside the organization for pitching help. External Options The old fellas (37+) Max Scherzer Zach Greinke Justin Verlander Charlie Morton Highly, highly doubt any of these guys have interest in signing with the Twins. Aside from Scherzer, do you want the Twins to make a run at them? Pass, and they all say no thanks too. Tier 1 Lance Lynn Marcus Stroman Kevin Gausman Carlos Rondon Tier 1 does not make much sense to me. None of them are better than Berrios and if you are not going to pay him the 5 / 115mil we all expect him to get, why would you pay Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman somewhere in the range of 5 / 90mil? I think the sox can and will retain both Rondon and Lynn as well. Tier 2 Jon Gray Michael Pineda Robbie Ray Martin Perez Danny Duffy Zach Davies Not super inspiring. Jon Gray and Robbie Ray are probably the most appealing options. Pineda’s recent arm injury puts things up in the air for his future. We can skip the Martin Perez option as I cannot imagine the Twins getting back into that. Danny Duffy would be nice, but do you really want to commit something like 3 / 40mil to a guy going on 35? Tier 3 Noah Syndergaard Chris Archer Corey Kluber None of them are currently healthy, nor have they been the past 2 years. Syndergaard is interesting but even he is a question mark going into next year as he’s on the IL right now after issues following TJ. Trade Targets? German Marquez John Means Zach Gallen The Rockies, Orioles, and Diamondbacks are all rebuilding. They are not moving assets for someone like Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco. So, what can you offer up? Royce Lewis? Then your selling low on your best prospect. Balazovic or Duran? Welp, that would be, um, something when your desperate for pitching. Arraez? Jose Miranda? One of Jeffers / Garver? Not sure that moves the needle, nor are they prospects teams would covet…. After that, nothing is getting you a Marquez, Means, or Gallen. Now how about one of Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff for pitching? It is an interesting idea and could dramatically change the Twins long term question mark at the position. You would have to be really sold on Max Kepler bouncing back. _____ Let’s fill out the rotation with 2 players from each tier 1 & 2 of starting pitchers. Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon Gray/ /Ray/ /Duffy Ok that realistically will command something in the range of 28 million. Take your pick of who that may be. I do want to point this out, you are not going to be able to sign anyone from Tier 1 to a 1-year deal. You will have to sign them to multiyear commitments with real money involved. Even Tier 2, id imagine most players will take no less than 2-year deals. You could sign 3 players from tier 2. Go a similar direction as they have in the past bargain shopping (Happ, Lynn, Shoemaker, etc.) Though that has not really worked out, so I am switching things up in my scenario. _____ As for the bullpen. It is anyone’s best guess. They are not signing Craig Kimbrel and after that its just a bunch of names to be quite honest. You can check out the list here. ______ For the sake of the “re-tool” argument I am committing 3 million to signing 2 no name relievers like the front office has done every year. We have now committed something in the ballpark of 31 million to revamp the pitching staff, with 2 new starters and 2 no name relievers (it’s anyone’s guess). _______ They now have 14 million remaining to fill the holes at Shortstop and DH. Designated Hitter The Designated Hitter class, surprise, is also poor. Nelson Cruz is going to probably be too expensive and may even retire. Id love him back though. But we have more pressing needs. After that, we can choose between Jorge Soler or Khris Davis. But why sign either of those guys when you have Miguel Sano on the roster? Brent Rooker? You could let em duke it out in Spring Training. Lets scratch signing a DH. _____ Shortstop On to Shortstop. They could move Jorge Polanco from 2nd base back to short and slide Luis Arraez in at 2nd. But I am not sure they want that defensive plan up the middle again. Nick Gordon, who was drafted as a shortstop, does not seem to be viewed as shortstop anymore. Other than Royce Lewis, who has question marks already staying at short long-term, has never played above AA, and coming off an ACL injury, the Twins lack internal options. We do not have the money to sign one of the crown jewels of the class so you can forget about Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Brandon Crawford. I do think Javier Baez is a notch below those guys and he probably would be open to a shorter-term deal. Maybe something like 1 / 14 mil? He has a .282 OBP to this point, though slugging .778. It will be interesting to see what the market is for him. The 2nd Tier in the SS class consists of Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar, Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias. As for trade options, Dansby Swanson could be available if the Braves decide to go after a big name. Other than that, I do not see a ton being available or frankly anything that intriguing. I am rolling with Javy Baez on the 1yr / 14 mil deal. Twins get lucky, sign Berrios’s brother in-law, and see how it plays out. It is a nice bridge while we wait for Royce Lewis. ______ We have run through the options, lets look at what we got to compete in 2022. Lineup Byron Buxton CF Max Kepler RF Trevor Larnach LF Josh Donaldson 3rd Javier Baez SS Jorge Polanco 2nd Alex Kirlloff 1st Mitch Garver C Miguel Sano DH Bench Luis Arraez UTI. Ryan Jeffers C Jose Miranda 3rd/DH Nick Gordon UTI Rotation Jose Berrios SP Kenta Maeda SP Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon SP Gray/Ray/Duffy SP Bailey Ober SP Bullpen Taylor Rogers Closer Jorge Alcala Set up No Name #1 Set up Tyler Duffey Set up Caleb Thielbar Mid No Name #2 Mid Randy Dobnak Mid Devin Smeltzer Long Again, this is in no way what the Twins are going to do, merely an idea of what a “re-tool” might look like. So, before you rip me in the comments for signing the wrong guys or not doing what you think they should or should not do, this exercise gives you a glimpse into the options the Twins have both internally and externally to build a competitive team in 2022 for one last run with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers all together. So now you can ask yourself the questions that matter. Does that team win the central? Does it win a wild card berth? Are you putting the organization in the best possible to position to compete with the White Sox the next 4-5 years? Do we have a pipeline of pitching prospects we are confident in? I think that this team can be competitive. 85-88 wins? thats barring everyone being healthy. This is all hinging on Polanco continuing to swing the bat well, Kepler being more consistent, Maeda returning somewhat to his old self, Bailey Ober continuing to pitch as well as he has, Thielbar, Duffey, and Alcala continue being trusted options, etc. There's a lot of question marks. My concerns mainly start with depth of the minor league system, specifically pitching. Where do they stand with Berrios and Buxton on extensions? If I'm either player, im a year away from free agency, why would I take an extension now? If you sign the players to help you compete in 2022, do you even have enough money left to try and pay them? At the end of the day the front office’s job is to do what’s best for the organization. The last thing any GM wants to do is plays catch up because they were not proactive. If you have doubts about any of those questions you need to shift your focus to 2023 and beyond. That might mean moving Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers at the deadline. Which is a hard pill to swallow for some fans, but it is the smart thing and the right thing to do.

Gavin Williams at either selection would be great.

The front office is not taking back Luis Gil. That is essentially admitting they screwed up and dealt away a top 100 pitching prospect for Jake Cave, ownership would absolutely question their decision making ability. Swap him out for Luis Medina and you got a deal.

I hate to be pessimistic, but honestly where do you see these graduations in the pitching department. Yeah, Larnach and Kirlloff are fantastic. Arraez is a phenomenal hitter, Jeffers looks to be a building block long term. But outside of those guys, I'm not seeing it on the pitching side whatsoever, they have the oldest pitching staff in baseball actually. If Duran joins Enlow and Sands with TJ, your left with Canterino (whos been hurt) and Balazovic (whos been hurt)... So then we are looking at some bargain relief pitchers and that's what we are going to hang our 2022 hopes on? Selling at the deadline SHOULD mean a meaningful re - stocking, you can't sit on your hands and hope for things to work out with what we got going right now.

If they don't sell, they are not doing right by whats best for the organization. The pitching depth throughout the minors, that could potentially contribute on some level within the next few years, is either coming off injuries or currently hurt.. With that, everyone's development timeline is pushed back. You have to stock the system with something, frankly I don't care if it hurts the teams chances in 2022.. Things are not trending in the right direction. Get ahead of this being another 2011 disaster and right the ship.

The Twins are in a really interesting position with Buxton. We all saw the incredible spring he had, really on pace for MVP. If that truly was a glimpse of what we he has developed into, then yes. Extending Buxton, regardless on injuries, should be the priority for this organization. Yeah, the injuries are a major red flag, but how many guys can do what he is able to do, when healthy, in MLB? Trout, that's it. If the Twins do decide to let him walk, then becomes the 2nd coming of Willie Mays and stays healthy, we all will scream "cheap Pohlads" , blah blah... It really comes down to potential. Buxton is a generational, organization changing talent. If it comes down to he or Berrios in terms of getting paid, lets go with upside in Buxton. We know what Berrios is now and I'm not quite sure he has the true no.1 upside he wants to get paid like. Gamble on the perennial MVP that Buxton could become, it's the Twins, how many times does a player like this come along?

Nice write up. I'd lean toward keeping Arraez. I think the guy that should be shopped around his Jorge Polanco. Ankle seems to have healed up and he's back to hitting well from both sides of the plate. He's turning 28 in a few weeks and entering the prime of his career.. Though the shift to 2nd probably hurt his value, since May 1st, Polanco ranks 6th among 2nd basemen OPS at 841. His contract is also extremely reasonable, only owed 35mil through 2025. I'd prefer to keep Arraez, whos younger, matches up with the next wave of talent coming through, and in arbitration for 4 more years.. Not to mention an absolutely fantastic hitter and on base machine.. Flip Polanco for a haul in the winter.

Personally, though not particularly popular, I think the Twins best option is to package Cruz in a deal with Berrios to the Rays. With Glasnow down likely needing Tommy John, the Rays need that established, inning eater, top of the rotation vet, to step in and compete for the AL. With Berrios, the Rays get just that. Being controllable and cheap is also a huge asset to the Rays, knowing what we do with their track record and paying talent. Here's what I propose : Rays : Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz Twins pay the remainder of both contracts this year adding more of an incentivize to the Rays, while giving them exactly what they need to compete throughout the rest of the year. Tampa has been linked to Cruz in the past and they have struggled mightily against left handed pitching thus far in the season. Twins : Shane Baz, Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Brent Honeywell, Kevin Kiermaier Baz has turned the corner this year with his command becoming one of the pitching prospects in baseball to this point in the season, dominating double A and continuing that theme in with his recent promotion in triple A. Joe Ryan is a MLB ready arm that has middle of the rotation upside as a 3, but most likely a 4. Bradley is a high upside, low A pitcher, that has had success this year flashing great strikeout numbers and commanding the zone better than anticipated this early in his career. Brent Honeywell, a former top 50 prospect, is finally back from injuries and working into the grove of things. At this point he really is just a flier add in that presents upside and can contribute to a Major League roster sooner than later... Now, Kiermaier's locked into his current deal with 17 mil remaining through 2022 and a 2.5 mil buyout for 2023. The Rays, being as cheap as they are, would be ecstatic to get that contract off the books, especially considering the depth they have... The Twins take that money off their hands and get a former gold glove outfielder who really is just a 2 year 19.5 mil signing if you anticipate the Twins exercising that buyout option. The Twins have been unsuccessful locking Berrios into the extension they desire the past few years so maximizing his value now has got to be the focus. With Duran, Enlow, and Canterino going down with elbow injuries, the Twins need to replenish the system with arms that are MLB ready + young talent with top 100 upside. They get both in this deal. My 2 cents, would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Oh, heres the deal breakdown on baseballtradevalues as well - https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-49374/

years of data?? I don't think this is a case of he is what he is... unless your just saying hes injury prone. sure... What I initially said, in my first post, was when he is healthy, he is a top 5 player in baseball. Advanced metrics back that up as well, overwhelmingly... He's 27, going into his physical prime, the best is yet to come with Buxton.

um did you see the first 5 weeks of the year when Buxton was healthy. Id argue he was the best player in baseball

I think the simulator is nice for offseason trades but the formula seems to be off on deadline deals.. Buxton's value is all potential and what he can do if he is fully healthy. That alone, your looking at a top 5 player in baseball... Pair that with the concept of him with Tatis.. I think he has a little more value than the simulator accounts for.. I believe hes closer to 50 million in value..... I think there's a similar element with Berrios in that a team gets caught up in his potential and what he could be, vs what we all know he is... Think the Marcus Stroman trade, but a little more value. Range of 35-40mil probably.

Padres : Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios Twins : CJ Abrams, Justin Lange, Robert Hassell, Reggie Lawson, Anderson Espinoza Padres already are all in. They double down pairing Buxton with Tatis and bolstering the rotation with Berrios. Yankees : Max Kepler, Michael Pineda Twins : Luis Medina, Oswald Pereza, TJ Sikkema Yankees get the left handed bat they desperately need and a capable centerfielder under team control, while staying under the luxury tax. Beef the rotation with a familiar arm they have already been linked to having interest. Get what you can for the other impending free agents, shop Rogers around and see if you get any bites.

Great write up! I love cruz, but yeah its probably the right move. Teams I think will inquire - A's, Rays, Jays

I do think baseball trade values is a super cool site and its typically spot on with offseason trades, they haven't quite got it down on deadline deals. But you are right, im sure he is priced out of what cruz would bring back.. I hope they can the value formula a little tightened up.. Some of them are just way off, especially comparing some past mid summer deals - specifically relievers

I really dont see Cruz getting you back much.. Greg Jones, maaayyybeee?? They might even be too much.