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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    10 players, Ty Cobb among them had BABIP higher than Sano's, with Tom McCreery being the overall leader at .390 (Cobb second at .378). Odubal Herrera (.359), Corey Seager (.357), Yelich (.356), Trout (.355), Marte (.354), Votto (.354), Goldschmidt (.354), Cesar Hernandez (.353), Derek Jeter (.350) have had or having career BABIP's at Sano's (.362) neighborhood.
  2. Thrylos
    BABIP for hitters (unlike for pitchers) is an individual hitting trait measure and can vary. For example, out dear old friend Kirby Puckett (whose BMI was at Sano's level in his prime) had a career .342 BABIP, much higher that Barry Bonds's (.285), Frank Thomas's (.304) or David Ortiz's (.300) and even Ken Griffey Jr's (.287.) Wonder if there will be any discussion on whether Joe Mauer can sustain his career .341 BABIP too
  3. Thrylos
    Sano's career BABIP numbers: .422, .382, .339, .307, .397, .265 (surgery), .315, .396 (MLB), .329 (MLB), .375 (MLB) MLB average BABIP is .362. So it is pretty darn sustainable (and likely will improve for someone who is 3-4 years away from his prime.) And more important 17.25 PA/HR last season (and has been improving) which means that if he had Dozier's PAs last season, he would have hit 41 HR. When Dozier was his age he had 9 HRs between Fort Myers and New Britain. And that is not measured by BABIP. And he is 3-4 year away from his prime. We are talking about a perennial 50-60 HR a season hitter here...
  4. Thrylos
    Of course. What I think fair value for Sano is: One MLB starting pitcher on the top 25 under 25 list (even the 2017), one AA+ bat and one AA+ starting arm in the top 25 prospect list. Good luck finding a team that has all of that. The Mets are close (Syndergaard, Ahmed Rosario) but they are missing a high minors top 25 prospect arm. Deals have to make your team better. Not worse.
  5. Thrylos
    Got to love Dozier's projected plate appearances
  6. Thrylos
    Sano, again? For real? Hasn't this been discussed to death and beyond the last few weeks? The process is under way. There are no news about it, until there are news about it.
  7. Thrylos
    Soria is owed $9M plus incentives. Avilan is on his 3rd arbitration year. So they took about $12 or so million salary minus the cash ($1) they got. I don't think that they had to give any players away, so it seems that they took salary. Nutty trade for a rebuilding team, but that's the Sux Seems like the Royals are trying to cut cost here to sign Hosmer
  8. Thrylos
    I'd actually offer a contrarian opinion here: If someone can hit .300, with close to 30 HRs and only a 18 K%, I don't want him to take walks That was Rosario's 2017 season. He, (and Polanco 7.5 BB% and 14.3 K%) should be swinging the bats. It works. Because of the title: Rosario, based on his K%, does not have much of a problem with plate discipline... Has lower K% than Dozier, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Vargas, etc....
  9. Thrylos
    Re: Berrios: Last season he improved from 2016. From 17.4 to 22.6% K% and from 12.5 to 7.8 BB%. And in the first half he was a pretty remarkable 23.7 K% and 6.5 BB% I think that his 2017 goal was to be able to throw his fastball for strikes and get ahead, something that he had issues with in 2016. This season his goals should be: a. to build on that, b. mix it up with a third pitch a bit more; esp. against LHB (11.9 BB% and 1.58 WHIP vs. 4.3 BB% and 0.98 WHIP for RHB); he threw the change only 8.6% of the time. Needs to be higher. and c. build up a bit more endurance; which is something that will eventually come.
  10. Thrylos
    Great post! Thanks for sharing
  11. Thrylos
    The police can do nothing. The police arrest potential law-breakers and the DAs charge them with a crime. The statue of limitations has ran out on assault, so no DA can charge him with anything. Based on the CBA, the Twins cannot start an investigation; only the MLB can. And likely it will. There is another potential consideration there: Civil Court. There could be lawsuits filed against Sano for damages and by Sano for defamation. Only ways that this will get resolved.
  12. Thrylos
    It is complicated. Both Reyes's and Champan's situations were domestic violence situations (vs. wife or long time girlfriend.) Reyes was arrested for domestic abuse after his wife called the cops. If anything, I'd compare the allegations against Sano with the allegations against Trump, as far as relationships between the accused and accuser go, because it was between practically unknowns. And Sano, unlike Trump, is not accused of groping (sexual assault). but of grabbing someone by the arm and intending (according to the accuser) to drag her to the bathroom.
  13. Thrylos
    What Sano allegedly did and what Chapman allegedly did (chocking his girlfriend and firing 8 rounds from a handgun) are slightly different in gravity, don't you agree?
  14. Thrylos
    "Reprehensible" is in the eye of the beholder. There are other behaviors that some of us might find reprehensible (like bringing politics and religion in Sports, being racist, being homophobic, cheating, etc.) And the Twins have had (and still have) plenty of that. Where should the line being drawn? To whose reprehension? That is a very slippery slop...
  15. Thrylos
    The Dodgers have shown what the real market price (value) of Dozier is. The Twins should not pay more than that. Either trade him now with a year left, or let him play and give him a qualifying offer, and end up with a high draft pick. Extending aging players who are way older than the club core will not help the club. The Hughes, Capps, Pavano, etc extensions should make people realize that by now. I'd rather see the Twins give the $ towards acquiring a starting pitcher, extending Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc...
  16. Thrylos
    Bit of a legal procedural thing: Based on the CBA, ballclubs cannot do anything about such allegations. They cannot even start an investigation. The MLB office is the only one that can do so. And I think that I saw some place (maybe the Twins comment?) that the MLB is investigating. Don't expect announcements soon, unless civil lawsuits are opened in this case (one way or another)
  17. Thrylos
    Must be low on Gordon The Twins #1 "consensus" prospect last off-season, should have a tad more value than that, no?
  18. Thrylos
    This sucks. I feel sorry for Betsy. People just do not make up stuff like that in so much detail. He was wrong. Period. He might have not known that what he did, and might not believe that what he did is wrong and not permissible in this culture, because it might not be likely is not wrong in the culture he grew up. But this does not make it less wrong. Period. The Twins (and the player agents) need to do a better job of teaching their international players what is culturally permissible here and what is not. Every single job has annual training about what is sexual harassment. The MLB should institute that training as well, especially for players from other cultures. I hope that this is taken as a opportunity for learning and healing, and that teams make sure that situations like that do not happen again.
  19. Thrylos
    Darn. Must be even more horrible at Cleveland that lost: Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith, Boone Logan, Austin Jackson and replaced them with Yonder Alonso, and a bunch of had been and never had been MiLB FA. On paper, that's about a loss of 8-10 wins. At least all the Twins lost this off-season are minor leaguers and misfits. Long post-season left.
  20. Thrylos
    How would you feel if the Twins got a decent arm for Burdi and Bard last off-season? Prospects have their expiration dates unfortunately, and they are not always as good as advertised. Ask Delmon Young.
  21. Thrylos
    Nitpicking, but Should read it is the 9th shortest turnaround for a Major League pitcher in the Tommy John era. It is the shortest, for a professional pitcher, the last 10 seasons or so. Casey Crosby, a high schooler returned after 262 days. Data in the linked article that is utterly confused and confusing on the subject...
  22. Thrylos
    Re: Castro. His defensive last season was disappointing, at least as BP metrics go In the same link, you will see that his back up, Chris Gimenez was 3 places above him. Speaking of Gimenez, he was slightly better with the bat (.731 OPS, 97 OPS+ vs .720 OPS, 93 OPS). Gimenez is 4 years older. Gimenez's value is a minor league contract with invite to ST and about $1M if he makes the team. Castro is younger, but there is no way that his value is close to that of Kirrilloff and Javier who if they have another good season, they might shoot to top 50 level prospects. Same with May. Would you get Kirilloff or Javier or May 1:1 for Castro? Nah. Duffey, sure.
  23. Thrylos
    Views is not the best way of judging audience engagement with a particular piece of content, since with that metric, someone who is a first and only time user who clicks a link at a third site and spends a second on a piece of content, is treated the same with someone who is a dedicated user and who clicks once and spends 10 minutes reading another piece of content, and does that for a couple hours a day... Views is easy to calculate; you need a bit more of advanced analytics to quantify engagement, which should really be the goal of every digital content provider.
  24. Thrylos
    Might not be impressed by their moves, but how about their results? Bit impressed there?
  25. Thrylos
    Regarding Duke's 1.04 WHIP: His BABIP was .196, which means that if it were league average his WHIP would normalize to 1.45 that is at the (replacement) level of his other numbers. Cannot really commend on the signing, before we have details of the contract type (MiLB, or MLB) and the amount.
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