Thrylos

I would say that these pitchers maybe have higher upside, but they do carry much more risk. That's why the relative ranking. They pitched 8 and 11 professional games respectively. They can be fast climbers, but they still have a lot to prove. Tyler Benninghoff for example has MLB closer or mid-rotation upside, but he has not thrown a single pitch because of TJ surgery. If he returns with intact velocity he might jump 20 spots or so next time I do this.

At age 22 Machado hit 35 HRs in the majors Re: Molina's power: I really got to dig, but I am not sure that I know a natural right throwing player who is batting left (including switch hitters from that side) with that body type to have much power. I think that the alleged new focus of the Twins in commanding the fastball first and foremost will help del Rosario and a lot of other pitchers. I'd love to see how his stuff plays at Fort Myers.

I thought that this was going to be about Tony LaRussa

Little known fact, but as far as T.O.S. survivors go, one should add Twins' own John Curtiss to the list. He apparently got a twofer and had the procedure back-to-back after TJ surgery and lost the season before the Twins' drafted him. So slightly different situation than Hughes, but Curtiss' velocity and movement in his FB is encouraging for Hughes. As far as limiting the innings go: Unlike TJ that is a reconstructive surgery and one needs to let the reconstructed ligament heal properly without too much stress, so it will not tear again, TOS is kinda like appendicitis or hernia surgery: They cut muscle that needs to heal before someone can go about their business. The removed rib had nothing to do with his performance. Of course, as with any surgery returning back to high levels of performance is kinda mental as well... We'll see. I always liked Hughes as a future closer and at this point the Twins do not have one, while they have a glut of SPs

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference. This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, and all segments in the series here. 50. Jordan Balazovic (--) DOB: 9/17/1998; Age: 18 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'4", Weight: 175 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 5th round in 2016 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2016) ETA: 2020+ Jordan Balazovic was drafted by the Twins in the 5th round of the 2016 draft from St Martin Secondary School in Mississauga, ON, Canada. Balazovic was the highest ranked Prep from Canada in the 2016 draft and comes from a baseball family, with both his father and grandfather playing professionally, the latter in the Cleveland Indians organization as an outfielder in the 1950s. He has a great feel for the game. He commands his low 90s fastball well and his changeup is close to a plus pitch. He never threw a breaking ball until age 14 (that was 4 years ago) so his slider is a work in progress at this point, but it has been improving. Very good mechanics and projectible build. Has the potential to add velocity, but still very young. In his first professional season he pitched in 8 games in the GCL league making 8 starts for 32 innings, striking out 16 (4.5 K/9, 12 K%) and walking 5 (1.4 BB/9, 8.3 K-BB%). He had a 1.97 ERA, 3.54 FIP and 0.970 WHIP (.248 BABIP). Still very raw, but with a plus changeup, very good control and command of the fastball and feel for the game, there is a lot of potential for Balazovic. Likely 2017 path: In EST and then the Elizabethton rotation. 49. Eduardo Del Rosario (--) DOB: 5/19/1995; Age: 21 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'0", Weight: 145 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2012 Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Eduardo Del Rosario was signed by the Minnesota Twins as an internation free agent from the Dominican Republic on Dec. 21, 2012, as a 17 year old and started his professional career at the Dominican Summer League in 2013. There he has shown enough potential as a starter to make his stateside debut in Extended Spring Training and the Gulf Coast League the following season. Del Rosario adjusted to the life in the United States as a reliever in 2014 and returned to starting and the GCL in 2015. There he started 10 games (47-1/3 IP) striking out 50 (9.5 K/9, 27.8 K%), and walking 9 (1.7 BB/9, 22.8 K-BB%) and held opponents to a .217 average. He finished with a 1.90 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 0.95 WHIP (.310 BABIP). He also made an emergency start in Elizabethton and got shelled (4 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 3 ER.) He started 2016 in Extended Spring Training again, and was promoted to class A Cedar Rapids bypassing Elizabethon in June. In Cedar Rapids he started 16 games (83-1/3 IP) walking 32 (3.5 BB/9, 14 K-BB%) and striking out 81 (8.8 K/9, 23.3 K%), allowing a .244 opponent average without major slip deviations against lefties or righties. He had a 3.67 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP (.304 BABIP). He did show an improvement in effectiveness as the season went along (his ERA went from 6.58 in June to 2.83 in July and 1.69 in August,) however his biggest issue, wildness, was pretty constant. In addition to the fairly high 3.5 BB/9 walk rate, in those 83-1/3 innings he threw 12 wild pitches and hit 5 batters. Del Rosario has excellent command of this low 90s fastball and he pitches ahead of hitters and then tries to get them out by swinging at his secondary stuff (changeup and slider) outside the zone. He has been inducing massive strikeout numbers in bunches, including this appearance were he struck out 11 in 6 innings.. His problem is that his secondary staff is average and, on more than an occasion, hitters are ignoring it and sitting on the fastball or taking walks. Improving his secondary stuff and their command will get him a long way; regardless, it is refreshing seeing a Twins' pitcher not being afraid to pitch outside the zone. 48. Taylor Clemensia (--) DOB: 2/20/1997; Age: 19 Positions: LHP Bats: L, Throws: L Height: 6'1", Weight: 185 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent 2015 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2016) ETA: 2020+ Taylor Clemensia was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from the Netherlands in 2015. 2016 was his first professional season in the United States, as well as his first full season as a pitcher, playing 3 professional seasons in the Dutch League as an outfielder, and appearing only 5 games as a pitcher last season. He started the season in Extended Spring Training and then moved to the Gulf Coast League where he pitched in 11 games, 10 as a starter, for 43-2/3 innings, striking out 47 and walking 12. He also threw 8 wild pitches and hit 6 batters. He finished with a 2.47 ERA, FIP, and 1.214 WHIP (BABIP). Big fastball that is all over the place, above average curveball, good feel for the changeup and very consistent mechanics on a frame that suggests durability. The command and control issues are concerning, but Clemensia has only pitched a season and a half, so there is a lot of room for improvement. Likely 2017 path: Extended Spring Training and then in the Elizabethton rotation, depending on the Twins' 2017 draft 47. Nelson Molina (--) DOB: 4/30/1995; Age: 21 Positions: IF Bats: L, Throws: R Height: 6'3", Weight: 175 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2013 Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2020 Nelson Molina was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 11th round of the 2013 MLB J Draft from Antonio Luchetti High School in Arecibo, PR. He has been developing slowly for the Twins, starting and repeating the GCL level his first two seasons, moving to Elizabethton in 2015 and to A level Cedar Rapids in 2016. He was drafted as a SS, but has played every infield and the corner outfield positions, concentrating recently at third base that will likely be his position of the future. Molina always had good plate discipline, but had a hard time making contact. However something clicked for him this season, hitting .300/.374/.381 overall (with only a 13.9 K% and 9.9 BB%) and .321/.383/.419 against RHPs. He is tall and lanky with limited power, but the potential to establish it as he grows. He has some speed, stealing 12 bases in Elizabethton, but this season he only had 6 attempts (and 5 SB.) He has been improving at third base, but made 9 errors in 67 games last season. At this point his bat is ahead of his glove, which will catch up as he is settles in one position. However, this might be a catch-22 for Molina, because positional versatility might be his key to the majors at some point and I suspect that will be the path that the Twins take for his development, unless his bat jumps yet another level and the power and speed numbers improve yo be projected as a potential starter in the hot corner. It will be interesting to see how he will respond in higher levels of competition, esp facing better off-speed pitches, and with more aggressive coaches at the base paths. Likely 2017 path: On the Fort Myers Miracle roster as a utility player 46. Tyler Benninghoff (--) DOB: 9/17/1997; Age: 19 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'4", Weight: 180 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2016 Professional Experience: -; Highest level: - (-) ETA: 2020+ The Twins drafted Tyler Benninghoff in the 11th round in the 2016 draft from Rockhurst High in Kansas City, MO. Benninghoff who was committed to Arkansas before the draft was a top 100 High School Prospect and projected to be drafted in the first 3 rounds, before his 2016 was derailed with Tommy John surgery and recovery. The Twins drafted him and signed him to an overslot value bonus ($600K vs $100K slot value) to entice him away from college. Benninghoff is a project in many respects, but before his injury he had a plus hammer curve and an above average fastball, seating at 90-92 mph and touching mid 90s. Projectible body and still growing, the health of his arm being the major concern. If healthy and if he develops a third pitch or improves his fastball, he could rise fast in the organization. 2017 will be an assessment season for him. Likely 2017 path: Extended Spring Training

Facts: Above 5 fWAR seasons as a catcher (5): 2006 (5.8), 2008 (5.7), 2009 (7.6), 2010 (5.0), 2013 (5.2) additionally he had 4.5 fWAR in 2012 Replacement seasons as a first baseman (1) 2015 0.2 fWAR For the above to be true, he would need to have at least 4 seasons 2017-2020 at replacement level. I suspect that if his 2017 and 2018 are replacement level seasons, he will retire, so the above speculation is highly unlikely...

Not high on Granite (bad pun not intended.) Not out yet, but here is what I partially wrote on his profile in my prospects list: There have been some comparisons to Ben Revere after his season in Chattanooga, but Granite is a very poor man's Ben Revere. Their tool sets are the same, hit for average, speed, and defense; however Revere's tools were much better at the same points of their career, not to mention that Revere was in the majors by age 22 where Granite just finished his age 24 season. Revere owned a career .325/.382/.402 minor league line and a .353 career BABIP in the minors where Granite's are .282/.349/.354 and .321 respectively. For someone whose game is to get on base and use his speed to move ahead, that difference of 43 points on the battling average, 33 on the on-base percentage and 32 on the batting average of the balls in play is huge. In the modern game those skills are much more devalued than they were 2 decades ago. Granite's ceiling is more of an Eric Yelding vs. a Juan Pierre type of player, which is that of a AAAA of that might spend some time in a mediocre or worse MLB team's bench. In other words sub any of the 4th OF scrubs that the Twins were signing for a decade plus from Tyner to Pridie to Thomas to both Schafers and that's his ceiling...

Not really. There is no significant correlation with age and hard hit %. Here are a few players around Mauer's age and their hard hit % over the years starting with 2009. Injuries definitely are a factor, but the thing is random, especially on not consistently all star caliber players: David Wright 2009 30.4% 2010 38.8 2011 32.3 2012 32.7 2013 36.3 2014 34 2015 34.5 2015 47.6 Miguel Cabrera 2009 37.4 2010 44.6 2011 36.9 2012 43 2013 45.1 2014 45 2015 40.1 2016 41.1 Ryan Howard 2009 45.6 2010 40.7 2011 36.2 2012 36 2013 43.7 2014 33.6 2015 37.3 2016 45.9 Joey Votto 2009 36.5 2010 40 2011 34.5 2012 39.5 2013 37.6 2014 32.4 2015 38.3 2016 38.3 Alexandro De Aza 2009 17.6 2010 29.6 2011 25.2 2012 28.6 2013 23.3 2014 25.5 2015 26.9 2016 43.8

Not quite... 2009 Mauer: .365/.444/.587, 171 OPS+, 28 HR, 96 RBI 1995 Piazza: 346/.400/.606, 172 OPS+, 32 HR, 93 RBI 1997 Piazza: .362/.431/.638, 185 OPS+, 40 HR, 124 RBI No catcher ever had an offensive season better than Piazza's 1997, and arguably, his 1995 was also better or at least as good as Mauer's 2009. For the record

How about some root cause analysis, 'cause if you don't know the cause of this "decline" it is hard to forecast. And I should probably put this somewhere else, and I still may, but here it goes: In April of 2016 he hit .321/.453/.440, his BABIP was .347 and made soft contact only with 6.6 % of the balls. For the season he hit .261/.363/.389 his BABIP was .301 and made soft contact with 13.4% of the balls. Against LHP that number was up to 19.2% for the season. In his prime his BABIP was at the .350 level, like last April and made soft contact only at about 5-7% of the balls he hit, up to 6-8% vs LHPs. In down seasons like 2007 his soft contact numbers were up to 14.5% vs LHP and 11.4% total. For comparison in 2015 when he hit .265/.338/.380, his BABIP was .309 and made soft contact in 16.5% of his contact, pretty much like his overall 2016 numbers. So, Mauer's success depends to whether he can keep his BABIP at the .350 level or so and drop his soft contact to that 5-7% again. Why the soft contact? His selectivity dropped. The last 2 seasons he has been swinging at 26-29% of balls outside the zone, compared to 22-23% in his prime and still making contact with about 77-80% of them and that is soft contact. His zone contact % dropped from 95% ish in his prime to about 89% ish now. This has nothing to do with soft contact (that's more with swinging strikes that have also increased recently) but indicates that his judgement of the pitches is not that it used to be and/or he has problem with certain pitches both inside and outside the zone. Looking at the pitchF/X data looks like his ability to deal with two-seamers, cutters and changeups the last few season was not what it was used to be in his prime (he is terrible against knuckleballs, but it is such a small sample that is not work talking). Now if you look at the heat maps for his isoP, they go like this: peak: April 2016: full 2016 season: So the Good Mauer is making strong contact in the middle and high center of the zone, while the Mediocre Mauer is trying to deal with pitches inside and low the zone as well with some success. The writing is on the wall: Mauer has to lay off two-seamers, cutters, and changeups, esp if they are low and in. Can he? He did last April. Based on the fact that the Twins are getting better with the analytics, and have a couple new coaches on the hitting department that can work things out with Mauer to get the BABIP towards that .350 mark and the soft contact down to 6-7%, a .290/.380/.420 slash is not out of question as a baseline for the next 2 season.

I do not disagree. What bugs me though is that it did not happen last season instead of Andrew Albers who we all new he was who he was...

And promoting the person who has been responsible for the Twins' drafts the past decade And keeping around the persons who have been responsible for the Twins' player development the past seasons And signing Vogelsong (and a partridge on a pear tree)

So the Twins were a Wilson Ramos or a Matt Garza away from respectability from 2011-16? I think not. Remember that Gardy & Andy were major cogs in those trades of players they did not like, like Garza, Gomez, Hardy etc. Bill Smith was a better GM than Terry Ryan. Check the Twins' record under each, if you don't believe me.

Can they pitch? Hitting was not the Twins' problems in 2016, other than early in the season with Mr Dozier being one of the worst offenders...

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference. This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here and all segments in the series here. 55. Cody Stashak (--) DOB: 6/4/1994; Age: 22 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'2", Weight: 169 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 13th round in 2015 Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A+ (2016) ETA: 2019 Cody Stashak was drafted by the Twins in the 13th round of the 2015 draft from St. Johns University. The New Jersey native majored in Criminology and St. John's was his second College, transfering there in 2015 from Cumberland (NJ) County (Junior) College, where he was a two way player, starting pitcher and outfielder. His pitching record was 16-5 with a 2.92 ERA, including 7 complete games and 130 Ks in 129-1/3 innings. He was very good as a position player as well, hitting .359 with 23 2B, 7 3B, 7 HR, and 91 RBI in 104 games, helping his team reach number 1 in national NJCAA Division III ranking and second in the 2014 NJCAA Division III World Series. In St. Johns he made 16 starts (85-2/3 IP), struck out 69 (7.3 K/9) and walked 24 (2.9 BB/9), ending up with a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He begun his professional career at Elizabethton in 2015, where he started 10 games (44-2/3 IP), struck out 53 (10.7 K/9, 29% K%) and walked 11 (2.2 BB/9, 23 K-BB%) and finished with a 5-2 record, 3.43 ERA, 3.18 FIP, and 1.119 WHIP (.310 BABIP). He begun last season at EST and moved up to A Midwest League Cedar Rapids where he appeared in 18 games (17 starts and a 4 IP relief appearance) pitching 105-1/3 innings, striking out 80 (6.8 K/9, 18.8 K%) walking 30 (2.6 BB/9, 11.8 K-BB%), finishing with a 3.16 ERA, 3.39 WHIP and 1.139 WHIP (.279 BABIP). He was promoted to the A+ Florida State League Fort Myers in August where he pitched 3 games for 16-2/3 innings, with 10K and 3 BB, 0.54 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.960 WHIP (.260 BABIP), before going to the disable list with "shoulder discomfort" for the rest of the season. Shoulder injury whose severity is unknown aside, Stashak has been a very steady pitcher, pitching several innings (130-1/3 in 2015 between College and Rookie ball and 122 in 2016 before his injury) with good results. The strikeout to walk ratio, other that his short Elizabethton stint in 2015, is a tad lower than optimal, allowing more contact than necessary, which combined with the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher (about 2 fly outs per ground out) make one worry whether Stashak will have success in higher levels of professional ball. He throws an above average 88-92 mph fastball that he commands well complements with an above average curveball. He has been also working on a changeup and a slider/cutter. Stashak is a player who can move though a system fast if a couple of his pitches develop to a plus level and his control improve. As mentioned previously the shoulder is a concern. Likely 2017 Path: Starting the season with Fort Myers Miracle, pending his shoulder health. 54. Tyler Wells (--) DOB: 8/26/1994; Age: 22 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'8", Weight: 265 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 15th round in 2016 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2016) ETA: 2020 Tyler Wells was drafted by the Twins in the 15th round of the 2016 draft from California State San Bernandino. The California native was a starter there for 3 seasons, pitching in 38 games (35 starts) for a total of 204 innings, striking out 191 (8.4 K/9), walking 90 (4.0 K/9), with a 3.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His last (junior) season he had better results (2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 15 games, 92 IP) while his peripherals remained pretty much constant (8.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9) which indicates that he got a better feel in pitching. He continued as a pro to Elizabethton where he started 10 games (47-1/3 IP), striking out 59 (11.2 K/9, 29.2 K%) and walking 17 (3.2 BB/9, 20.8% K-BB%) finishing with a 3.23 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.20 WHIP (.328 BABIP). In total 2016 has been a good year for Wells, starting 25 games for 149-1/3 IP between college and rookie league. Wells is a very durable starter and has the physique of a football lineman. As a high school senior he was listed at 6'7" and 212 lbs. At San Bernandino he grew an inch and filled up his frame to 265 lbs, without being overweight. As a collegiate his strikeouts were in bursts. He had games where his strike outs were in double digits and games where there were few. His results in Elizabethton show a gleam of hope that he can consistently keep his strikeout high by getting a better feel for his stuff from start to start. His mechanics are very good and consistent for his size and there is a lot of potential for improvement of his pitches, which in combination with his durability, makes Wells an interesting prospect Likely 2017 Path: Starting the season with Cedar Rapids 53. Zander Wiel (--) DOB: 1/11/1994; Age: 24 Positions: 1B Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'3", Weight: 232 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 12th round in 2015 Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Zander Wiel was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2015 draft from Vanderbilt University. The Tennessee native had an excellent last season there in 2015 highlighted by a .316/.406/.571 slash line and 15 HR in 275 AB (18.3 AB/HR). Making the transition to a wooden bat is sometimes tricky for power hitters, but Wiel hit .265/.323/.494 with 5 HR in 83 AB (16.6 AB/HR) at the Cape Code League the previous summer, so it seems that his power would translate in the professional level. He played 16 games (36 AB) in Elizabethton last season and his first small sample of professional baseball was not stellar (.194/.333/.333 ; 1 HR and missed most of the season with an injured wrist due to a HBP) but inconclusive. He played the full 2016 season in A League Cedar Rapids. He played for 128 games (501) and hit .259/.336/.459 with 19 HRs (26.4 AB/HR.) He started 123 of those games at 1B where he made 17 errors. Wiel has power which is his best tool, but is not quite elite like Kennys Vargas (14.0 AB/HR at the same level,) Miguel Sano (16.3 AB/HR at the same level), or Adam Brett Walker (18.8 AB/HR at the same level.) His fielding is a work in process. The critical component for Wiel will be the amount of progress he makes making contact. His batting average (.259) is pretty similar to what he had at the Cape Cod league (.265), which means that there might still be an adjustment period to the wooden bat. His strikeouts (22%) are not bad for a power hitter and they were better than his highly regarded (but 3 years younger) teammate Travis Blackenhorn's (27.5%.) There is a lot of potential here, but improvements in power, contact, and fielding need to be made for already 24-year old Wiel to realize it. Likely 2017 Path: Opening day first baseman with Fort Myers. 52. Andrew Vasquez (--) DOB: 9/14/1994; Age: 23 Positions: LHP Bats: S, Throws: L Height: 6'5", Weight: 210 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 32nd round in 2015 Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Andrew Vasquez was drafted by the Twins in the 32nd round of the 2015 draft from Westmont College where he transferred as a senior from University of California Santa Barbara where he pitched his first 3 collegiate seasons. The California native was Highly recruited out of High School after finishing 5-1 with 1.54 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 52-1/3 IP and being a switch hitting first baseman. His freshman season he started 15 games (88-2/3 IP) had 106 strikeouts (10.6 K/9) and 63 BB (6.4 BB/9) with a 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The next 2 seasons the wheels fell off and his ERA ballooned to mid 4s, before dropping to 3.06 after his transfer. The problem? Andrew Vasquez is an unusual pitcher. One has to think of him as a knuckleballer, but unlike a knuckleballer, Vasquez bread and butter pitch is his curveball that he throws most of the time. And it is a beautiful slow curveball that sits at the high 60s low 70s, which most of the time is a plus plus pitch that misses bats and induces very weak contact when it does. He occasionally throws a mid 80s fastball that was just a step above a playground pitch at college but improving. Missing bats is what Vasquez does, but when he misses the plate with his curveball and the hitters are sitting on his fastball, the results have been disastrous. All of his collegiate career he was given more walks than hits. His strikeout numbers (13.1 K/9) and hits (4.8 hits per 9 innings) have been stellar his senior year, but walks were the problem (5.7 BB/9). In his first pro-season with the Twins, Vasquez transitioned to the pen in the Gulf Coast League where the trent continued. He pitched 12-1/3 innings in 12 games, striking out 22 (16.1 K/9) allowing 10 hits (7.3 H/9) but walking 15 (11 BB/9). He started 2016 in extended spring training and looks like something clicked for Vasquez. He moved to Elizabethton for 4 games, pitched 10 innings striking out 15 (13.5 K/9, 38.5 K%) allowing 6 hits (5.4 H/9) and walking only 4 hitters (3.6 BB/9, 28.2 K-BB%) ending up with an 0.90 ERA, 2.46 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP (.333 BABIP.) He was promoted to Cedar Rapids where the success continued: He came of the pen in 13 games for 28-1/3 innings, with 36 K (11.4 K/9, 31.6% K%), 12 BB (3.8 BB/9, 21.1 K-BB%) and 13 H (4.1 H/9) translating into a 1.59 ERA, 2.63 FIP and 0.88 WHIP (.210 BABIP). It has to be mentioned that Vasquez has not allowed a home run as a pro player. As mentioned earlier, even though a secondary pitch, his fastball has improved this season and he has been also toying with a slurve that sits at high 70s to low 80s. He is lethal against LHBs. In Cedar Rapids he faced 36 lefties allowing 3 hits and 3 walks and had 18K. He is a very interesting prospect who will live and die with the control and command of his curveball and if that holds up in higher levels, he might be a fast riser. The benefit he has as a reliever that he did not have as a starter is that he can reduce his exposure when his command and control is not there. Likely 2017 Path: In the Fort Myers bullpen 51. Jason Wheeler (--) DOB: 10/27/1990; Age: 26 Positions: LHP Bats: l, Throws: L Height: 6'6", Weight: 255 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 8th round in 2011 Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AAA (2014, 2015, 2016) ETA: 2017 Jason Wheeler was drafted by the Twins in the 8th round of 2011 from Loyola Marymount University. The California native has been in the Twins system since 2012, starting his professional career with the A Midwest League Beloit Snappers, starting from 25-28 games every seasons and pitching from 137-2/3 to 169-1/3 innings every season. Wheeler was placed on the Twins' 40 man roster after the 2014 season to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, but was removed after the 2015 season. He has been the poster boy of durability and consistency and has also suffered by the Twins' practice to block prospects at the high levels by singing aging veterans with little hope to contribute to the Twins to minor league contracts, blocking rising prospects. Due to this, he started both the last seasons in AA and moved to AAA in the season and was bypassed by the likes of Andrew Albers in pitching for the Twins. In 2016 Wheeler started 4 games in AA Chattanooga and 24 in AAA Rochester. He pitched 169-1/3 innings striking out 135 (7.3 K/9, 19.1 K% ) and walked 40 (2.1 BB/9, 12.9 K-BB%) with a 3.30 ERA, 3.41 FIP and 1.163 WHIP (.283 BABIP). Wheeler is a major league ready pitcher who is not flashy, entering his prime at 26, but can contribute at the end of a rotation. He has a 88-90 mph fastball that he commands very well and generates soft contact. He is also throwing an above average cutter/slider and change up. He is about equally effective against lefties and righties and the last time he came out of a bullpen was as a college sophomore in 2010, so his future as a potential reliever is unknown. Likely 2017 Path: Starting for Rochester, potential September or injury call up for the Twins

Fact: The Twins with Dozier lost 103 games. How worse can they be?

"Established All-Star"? Since when? A single All Star appearance (2 seasons ago mind you) does not establish anything. Is Edwardo Nunez an established All Star? How about Ron Coomer? Or Kurt Suzuki. Exactly as many All Star appearances as Brian Dozier.

The title of this really confused me, esp looking at the Twins' rotation, but its subject is not really what I thought it was. I'd add Chargois & Rogers to the 2016 list in addition to Kepler As far as 2017 goes, I agree that Goodrum might have a good chance to take Danny Santana's spot during ST. He can play any IF position as well as CF, which is more versatility than Santana and his glove is an improvement over Santana, as is his stick that made good strides this season. Daniel Palka adds to this team something they do not have: Left hand power. He can push Rosario as a fourth OF option with Kepler and Buxton in the other 2 spots. Mitch Garver has a 33.3% chance in making the team as well, in his 3-way fight with JR Murphy and Chris Gimenez for the back up C spot. On the other hand they might want him to have a full season at AAA, but he is 25 already. Arms: Hard to tell at this point, since I suspect a lot of churn with potential trades and whatnot. I'd be surprised if Mason Melotakis is not there at some point in the season, Adalberto Mejia (who is IMO the most MLB-ready SP in the organization) as well. If healthy I just do not see a way that Nick Burdi does not make the Twins by the end of the season. Other than those, DJ Baxendale, Trevor Hildenberger, Jake Reed, Brandon Peterson even John Curtiss might have a chance to make it depending on performance and injuries. But I expect still a lot of change, as far as pitching goes, in what the Twins have now and what they will have by opening day

Thanks. Fixed.

I'd use a slightly different world than "unconventional", but I guess it would suffice. Rosenthal is saying today that the Twins are looking at all available DH/1B types, as well...

That's the reason he is at 58 I have 10 OF ahead of him and about half can play CF. On the other hand, Danny Santana

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference. Without further ado, here is the 2017 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2016 list in parenthesis: 60. Mike Cederoth (--) DOB: 11/25/1992; Age: 24 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'6", Weight: 195 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2014 Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2015, 2016) ETA: 2018 Mike Cederoth was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft from San Diego State University. The San Diego native started in his first years at SDSU and he was their closer his last year, dropping his ERA to about half (2.29 vs 4.26) and saving 20 games. In 2012 Cederoth was hit on the face by a comebacker, suffered a fractured jaw and had to have it wired shut for seven weeks. He was one of several College closers that the Twins have drafted that season with the intent to convert to starters but failed. Cederoth was ranked as the Twins' 23rd best prospect in my 2015 off-season list, after an unfortunate season in Elizabethton, and disappeared from my rankings in 2016, after a more unfortunate season in Cedar Rapids, both as a starter. This season the Twins converted him back to a reliever and he repeated the A level Cedar Rapids assignment with promising results: He appeared in 30 games, pitched 47-2/3 innings, striking out 61 (11.5 K/9, 29.2% K%), walking 33 (6.23 BB/9, 13.4% K%-BB%) for a 1.43 WHIP (.288 BABIP, 88.3% LOB%), 2.45 ERA and 3.87 FIP. His strikeout rate against RHBs was phenomenal (he faced 86 RHBs total and struck out 37). A major difference from his previous seasons was that his first two seasons as a starter he had averaged 2 ground ball outs to all other outs where last season the ration was 0.84, which indicates a major difference in his approach. Even out of college Cederoth had two ready pitches: a plus plus fastball that sits in the high 90s and touches triple digits and a plus slider. He has been playing with a curveball and changeup in the minors that are workable, but not above average. His curveball has had flashes of above average. His problem has always been his delivery and mechanics and this has translated into more than optimal walks, which is his barrier to excellence and the one thing that he needs to overcome to become a major league pitcher, because his fastball and slider are major league ready. Full transition to the bullpen and a program geared towards improving his mechanics may do wonders for Cederoth, as the abandonment of his two lesser pitches. But he has a long way to go. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the A+ Fort Myers bullpen and depending on his success will move to AA Chattanooga. 59. Aaron Whitefield (--) DOB: 9/2/1996; Age: 20 Positions: IF/OF Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'4", Weight: 200 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent from Australia Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015, 2016) ETA: 2020 Aaron Whitefield was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Australia. 2016 was his second professional season (he played 7 games in the GCL in 2015) and it highlighted Whitefield's versatility and steady hitting. He played 51 games in the Rookie Gulf Coast League, starting 17 at CF, 8 at RF, 2 at LF, 5 at 3B and 18 at 1B. Outfield is probably his best position, but at 6'4" and growing, having the versatility to play first base might help his career. He is an excellent fielder thoughout. He also played shortstop in the Australian Baseball League. He hit .298/.370/.366 with 2 HR, 7 2B, in 217 PA. Struck out 47 times and walked 19, stole 31 bases and was caught 9 times. In addition to the 19 BBs, he had 48 singles, which means he attempted to steal 40 of the 67 times he reached first base, which is a very high rate. His bat is advanced for someone with only few years of playing baseball (Whitefield is a converted softball player) and improving. As most converted softball players, he is hitting RHP better that LHP. His slash line against RHP was .325/.366/.423 vs .250/.378/.265 against LHP. This off-season Whitefield is playing for his hometown Brisbane in the Australian League and hitting .342/.387/.541 (.349/.407/.566 against RHPs) with 4 HRs and 12/14 SB in 118 PA in 28 games. The competition in the ABL is much higher than that at the GCL, which is very encouraging. Whitefield is still very raw, but has good instincts both with the glove and the bat. The bat will continue to improve the more he gets adjusted to baseball from softball, and right now it is much ahead of his peers. He is one of the players who might make considerable jumps in prospect lists, since he has all the makings of a five-tool player if his power improves. Definitely a player to follow. Likely 2017 path: Based on his ABL progress, I am bullish on Whitefield. I think that he will start the season in Cedar Rapids and skip Elizabethton 58. Tanner English (--) DOB: 3/11/1993; Age: 23 Positions: CF Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 5'10", Weight: 160 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 11th round in 2014 Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AAA (2016) ETA: 2018 Tanner English was drafted by the Twins in the 11th round of the 2014 draft from the University of South Carolina. The Pittsburgh, PA, native is one of the purest centerfielders in the Twins' system with a plus glove. He played 7 games in AAA last season out of need, however he spent most of the season in A+ Florida State League Fort Myers with the Miracle, and about three months of it in the disabled list because of a concussion. English's career minor league numbers (.270/.372/.425, 13 HR, 31 2B, 14 3B, 54/62 SB in 756 PA in 177 games) added to a plus glove would make one think that he should be ranked maybe in the top 30 of the organization, but his problem has been staying on the field. He plays the game relentlessly, since his days with the South Carolina Gamecocks, and gets hurt. A lot. Those 177 professional games came in three seasons. In addition his hit tool was challenged this season This season in 33 games with the A+ Miracle, English hit .235/.348/.429 and struck out 47 times in 142 PAs (33.1%). He played in the Arizona Fall League for 22 games, where he hit .239/.333/.338 with 25 K in 81 PAs (30.9%). Those strikeout rates, in addition to problems with making contact demonstrated by the .230s batting average against better pitching this season question his potential as a major leaguer. His numbers (.417/.548/.750, 7 BB, 7K) in a super small sample of 31 PAs against LHP this season at Fort Myers, offer a glimmer of hope. However, returning from a concussion is not an easy accomplishment and English will have an uphill battle. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in AA Chattanooga 57. Williams Ramirez (--) DOB: 8/8/1992; Age: 24 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'1", Weight: 200 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent from the Dominican Republic Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Williams Ramirez was signed as a 20 year old from the Dominican Republic on December of 2012 and spend his first two professional seasons in the Dominican Summer League, coming stateside in the 2015 season. He is a late bloomer. In his first season stateside he pitched for the GCL Twins in 11 games (9 starts) for 47-1/3 innings, walking 19 and striking out 54 (29.2%). He had a miniscule 1.14 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 0.908 WHIP (.211 BABIP). Last season he jumped two levels to the A Midwest League Cedar Rapids where he moved permanently to the pen and had a similarly good season: 29 games, 55 innings, walking 34 and striking out 66 (29.7%). 2.62 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.055 WHIP (.197 BABIP). His BABIP is bothersome as are his bases on balls. However the reason for walking is not mechanics, but inconsistency of his secondary pitches. He has a plus fastball with good movement that sits in the mid 90s and touches 96, a curve ball that flashes plus on occasion, but is out of control and a below average change up. He participated in the instructional league this off-season. Ramirez is lethal against RHBs, allowing them to hit only .111 and striking out 39 of the 87 he faced, which may indicate that if he attends to his control issues he could potentially be a valuable arm out a pen. Still at 24, he will be a bit older than most leagues he pitches. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in A+ Fort Myers and maybe move up to Chattanooga depending on results and need. 56. Colton Davis (--) DOB: 1/5/1994; Age: 23 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 6'1", Weight: 160 lbs Acquired: Drafted in the 25th round in 2016 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: A (2016) ETA: 2019 Colton Davis was drafted by the Twins in the 25th round of last July's draft as a Senior from Western Carolina University. The Commerce, GA native was assigned to Rookie Appalachian League Elizabethton Twins and he pitched in 13 games before moving to A Midwest League Cedar Rapids Kernels for 2 games in September because of need. Davis was an all conference Academic Criminology major and his career numbers (90 games, 9 starts, 146-1/3 IP, 169 H, 98 BB, 177 K, .291 OBA, 33 WP, 12 HBP, 5.84 ERA, 1.907 WHIP) from far suggest that the likelihood to get a pro contract was small, however looking closely there is potential: In his senior 2016 season Davis pitched in 31 games (1 start) for 67-1/3 innings he stuck out 89 batters of whom 34 looking and he had a 7 strikout relief appearance. The previous summer in the New England Collegiate League Davis appeared in 6 games (9-2/3 IP) he had 18 strikeouts (16.8 K/9) and 4 walks (3.7 BB/9) with a 0.93 ERA and 0.930 WHIP. Thus when his walks were controlled, there was a potential for good things. And good things happened to him this season. In 13 games for Elizabethton (19-1/4 IP) he struck out 23 (10.71 K/9, 30.7% K%) walked 8 (3.72 BB/9, 20.0 K-BB%) had a 3.26 ERA, 2.83 FIP and 0.98 WHIP (.262 BABIP) as the Twins' closer. Consistency and secondary pitches are the name of the game for Davis. He has a low 90s fastball with terrific movement that he can spot around the plate; however his secondary staff leave a lot to be desired. There is a lot of potential there, but also a lot of work to come close to realizing it. Likely 2017 path: Will start the season in the Cedar Rapids bullpen.

He has a ton of potential, but I think that what is missing from this conversation is some sort of negative reaction after a .204/.297/.337 at the plate and .883 fielding percentage at 3B season, from a 4th round pick. This quote to summarize his season is very concerning: "TC: I feel like I was pretty well prepared for what I faced. Nothing really caught me off guard." Apparently, he was either caught off guard and needs to work on some things or just does not have the ability to be better. The fact that there is no apparent realization that 2016 was a terrible season for him and he needs to work hard to fix things, kinda bothers me. Reality is not all rainbows and unicorns...

4 WAR is pretty artificially low. 45 hitters and 15 pitchers had 4.0 WAR or better in 2016. Bet you that only few of them will be HOF worthy. Raines' peak WAR (fWAR) : 1983 6.0 1984 6.7 1985 7.2 1986 6.0 1987 6.7 for comparison here is a HOF outfielder's contemporary to Raines' best 5 consecutive years: 1988 7.1 1989 4.7 1990 2.4 1991 3.8 1992 5.9 And Andre Dawson's best consecutive 5 seasons: 1979 3.7 1980 6.0 1981 6.7 1982 7.3 1983 6.5 So comparing apples to apples Raines' peak is better that both Andre Dawson's and Kirby Puckett's (whose numbers are above Dawson's) who are in the hall of fame. Bernie Williams has a single season about 6 WAR, Kenny Lofton 2. Apples with Apples.

Not a franchise worst by far. A Minnesota worst by little Mauer/Vargas/Park in a 3-way 1B/DH platoon with the young guy (Vargas) getting most of the reps, sounds pretty right. He has one more option btw. Santana who?