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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    This crediting the scouts cuts both ways. See: Nishioka, Tsuyoshi
  2. Thrylos
    Could happen but if I were the Twins I would want to start valuable pitchers at Chattanooga (historic average 70 high and 45 low, the first week of April) than in Rochester (historic average 51 high and 33 low same time.) Nothing wrong with having some of the non-roster invitees pitching games in the cold in AAA until the weather warms. As far as competition goes, it is pretty similar between AA and AAA.
  3. Thrylos
    Hard to argue with this ranking. The key for Romero is to prove that he is a starter and for this he a. needs to get some real innings under his belt (90-1/3 in 2016 was ok; he needs to be pushed to 140ish) and b. develop that changeup because even though he has two plus plus pitches (fastball and slider/cutter,) he will need a third to start. Otherwise he is right up there with Burdi
  4. Thrylos
    I took a first cut at a projected Twins 25 man roster, using these 3 criteria: The new Front Office is looking for veteran leadership in the clubhouseDefense is very important for the new front officePlayers who chose to play in the WBC over fighting a position battle during ST, will be at a disadvantageHere is the result, and it looks a bit different. Of course without a single pitch or plate appearance in a game yet, I am sure that I will change my mind on the matter... Again, this is not what I would do, it is trying to guess what the Twins will do...
  5. Thrylos
    you missed the parts where I said that his WHIP is BABIP-driven (which is now at .250) and his FIP is driven by his ridiculous 0.22 HR/9 IP. When those regress to the MLB norm, his WHIP will be in the 1.400s and FIP in the 4s, just like Perkins and Diamond...
  6. Thrylos
    These are interesting, but some sort of career numbers will help frame those players' performances... Here are Campbell's in 3 years: 10 G, 5 GS, 19 IP, 16 ER, 15 BB, 7 K, 7.58 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.1 BB/9, 3.3 K/9
  7. Thrylos
    As I indicated earlier, his FIP is artificially low because of his low HR/9 numbers. I project those to jump to MLB-average levels in the majors, giving him mid 4 FIPs as an average.
  8. Thrylos
    Gonsalves's fastball is 88-91 usually. It might drop to 86, it might hit 92. That's about it. The problems I have with Gonsalves are: 1. He has maybe one plus pitch (his changeup), the rest are average/below average 2. His command is problematic. 12.5 BB% in AA is worrisome 3. He has survived by generating bad contact because of his FB "high spin rate". This translates to BABIPs in .250s and very low HR/9 (0.12 in AA last season.) When those numbers go back to reality/league average in the majors, his WHIP will jump to 1.400ish and FIP to 4ish. He is a back to rotation starter in a competitive team maybe. A step above the Alberses and the Deans of the world. Think Scott Diamond's career season or Glen Perkins as a starter. Not bad, but not that great.
  9. Thrylos
    There is another complication with Breslow: He will play with team Israel in the WBC. Not that it will be more than a game (or two), but it is a week or so that he will be away. But still the Twins have plenty of time to evaluate what he has.
  10. Thrylos
    Sure, but there is a wildcard in Vogelsong's favor: AL teams really have not seen him pitch. The last 2 season he pitched only against the Tigers, As, Rangers, Mariners, and was pretty good against the Tigers as a starter last season (5 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 0 BB, 5 K).
  11. Thrylos
    Not quite. .952 fielding percentage in the OF is not very promising... And speed is a tool he has not. Was 0/1 in SB last season. There is room for improvement and he did play centerfield in 11 games, I suspect just to have a look at him over there. Strong arm and I think that he projects as a right fielder, but still needs to do work with the glove. Interesting to see what he can do in the Midwest League. His swing is somewhat complicated and has too many moving parts and I am curious to see how it plays against better off-speed and breaking pitches...
  12. Thrylos
    And then he retired saying that he was behind the times. Probably his truest statement ever
  13. Thrylos
    See above re: OPS and why it is not a good thing to compare them. I prefer OBP for middle infielders who do not hit. And it is not a prospect comparison, it is a ceiling comparison or who will serve the Twins better in the nearer future. Career numbers do not matter, because players click at some point. The fact is that Vielma had a higher OBP (.345, and above his league average .321) against more advanced competition in AA. Gordon has not yet reached AA. His best OBP was .335, achieved against lesser competition in high A. Whether Vielma or Gordon have higher ceiling with the bat is up for discussion, but Vielma can hit ok. Previous post. .750 OPS, 40 SB, above average glove at SS is about 2.5 fWAR. And that .750 is about .030 points higher than Gordon's best, btw. To Vielma a .265/.321/.338 .659 OPS, 5 SB, elite glove SS has 3.2 fWAR (Andrelton Simmons's 2015 numbers). I'd give a bit more to Vielma because of the SB (and Vielma's best OPS was higher than that). So if Vielma hits .270/.330/.350 (very doable for him) and steals 40 bases (career best 35 vs Gordon's 25) , he will be a 3.5fWAR player, about 1 point more valuable than Gordon.
  14. Thrylos
    Not quite. See: .288/.325/.432 (.757 OPS) with 40 steals and about +1 UZR is a 2.7 fWAR player (those were Eduardo Nunez's numbers in 2016, and I don't think that Gordon can get there, esp with the SB department, but he will be overall in the ballpark as far as comparables go) So, would you pick Eduardo Nunez with the 5th overall pick, when Trea Turner and Aaron Nola were still on the board?
  15. Thrylos
    Back to the OP: Still very early, but the only differences I have are: Pitching: Vogelsong making the team over Rogers (actually it is Breslow over Rogers) and Santiago to the pen as the second lefty with either Vogelsong or Haley making the 5th rotation spot. Duffey over Chargois likely, as well. Still have to see them all pitch, so this is on paper only. Position players: Gimenez getting the back up C job over Garver I think that they will try to get several of the veterans they signed on the team.
  16. Thrylos
    Only the ones that are relevant, and this one is. Choosing not to participate in a big chunk of your team's Spring Training has 25 man roster implications? No? Especially when posts ask the Twins to hand Berrios a job...
  17. Thrylos
    Why? Berrios did not commit to stay this Spring in the Twins' camp and try to win a position. Jerking him around? He was horrible last season. Berrios is the one who needs to prove himself and not the Twins.
  18. Thrylos
    This excuse is not a valid one, since Dozier was untradable when Polanco was playing 2B in AAA. Dozier was hitting a Butterible .202/.294/.329 in the end of May, with 5 HR in 198 PA.
  19. Thrylos
    That was not a comparison. Direct or indirect. I used Smith's career .666 OPS to support my argument that OPS does not matter for some players, esp. the ones with not much power, and OBP is a better way to judge those players. I based it on his improvement as a hitter that culminated to a respectable .345 OBP in AA, which matter of fact, is higher than the Southern League average of .321 OBP, plus his .400+ OBP as a RHH What supporting evidence are you using to support what claim? Or are you just arguing against my earlier claim that Vielma at .345 OBP in AA is a better hitter than Gordon with .335 OBP in A+, without presenting any evidence?
  20. Thrylos
    He is not a power hitter. He will get on base at .345 clip. OPS does not do him justice. There is a certain shortstop with career .666 OPS who is a first ballot Hall of Famer...
  21. Thrylos
    Vielma hit .271/.345/.318 in AA, while Gordon hit .291/.335/.386 in High A. Vielma has less power but gets on base more often than Gordon. Vielma's problem is swinging from the left side. As a RHH last season he hit .338/.407/.416 in AA. And the jump from A+ to AA with the stick is significant. Let's see what Gordon will do in AA. This is his first season with OPS > .700 Vielma "cannot hit" is a suburban legend, brought to you by the same people who said that Polanco cannot play shortstop and Molitor apologized for yesterday...
  22. Thrylos
    Gordon is blocked by a player better than him (Polanco) and is followed by another better than him (Javier). Add to the fact that Vielma is probably ahead of him in MLB-readiness, much better with the glove and not that much lesser with the stick (esp if he quit switch hitting), and Gordon's future with the Twins should be obvious: He should be traded as soon as possible for something the Twins need, like young starting pitching, possibly in a package with Dozier, Santana and/or other veterans...
  23. Thrylos
    1. General Manager - Terry Ryan (he gone) 2. VP of Player Development - Mike Radcliff (he should go) 3. Minor League Director - Brad Steil (he should go) 4. Minor League Fielding Coordinator - Joel Lepel (he should go) 5. Polanco's manager at AAA in 2016 - Mike Quade (he should go) for starters... Molitor played him for 5 games at 2B and 9 games at 3B in 2016, which is also ridiculous...
  24. Thrylos
    For that to happen Dozier would need to be a goner...
  25. Thrylos
    They did. That video was before he was signed. And yes I take 30 PA of rookie ball over the collage of 30 older PAs in batting practice and miscellaneous amateur games in that video
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