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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    Things that work against Lynn: He is on the declining side of his careerHe has a pretty non-stellar season (1.4 fWAR, 4.82 FIP) in the NLHe made only $7.5 million the previous season and should not expect much of a raise based on his bad performanceHe has only one decent pitch, the fastball, that he throws 3 ways: 4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter. If/when that does not work, he is up the proverbial creek.The Cardinals know him better and they are competing. If he were an asset, they would had tried to re-sign him. He comes off a lost season (2016). They know his medicals.He will cost a high draft pick who can be better than Lynn (think Berrios)4.25 ERA, 1.517 WHIP against the AL last seasonBased on his previous performance, and injury history he comes with a ton of rish. That 2/$20 offer the Twins made, is not a lowball, but it reflects the above. It is a more than fair offer, since he will be getting a 33% raise after a down year. That 1.4 fWAR was pretty close to Gibson's 1.1 fWAR last season; Gibson's FIP was an eerily similar 4.85, but in the AL.He should had taken the money (QO) and run...
  2. Thrylos
    If that were their MO, then numbers 17, 19, 21, 26 all of whom have played in the majors should have been ranked higher... I think that they just overrate Gonsalves for sure
  3. Thrylos
    There are no clear ace free agents right now. in 2018 the Twins have under contract: Berrios Odorizzi Santana Gibson May Hughes Mejia Romero Gonsalves Littell in 2018 the Twins have under contract: Berrios Odorizzi (*) Santana (*) Pineda (x) Gibson May Hughes Mejia Romero Gonsalves Littell Adding yet another to their horde of number 3+ pitchers will do no service to the Twins. If anything they need to subtract from their current options. They will be better off to try to swing a trade for a number one or two, using players on their current horde (in addition to other prospects), because that will be an addition they need, plus a reduction of movable assets that might just go away... (*) Options (x) under contract in 2018 but unlikely to play
  4. Thrylos
    Maybe not. Case in point Doug Mientkiewicz. He was a great defensive first baseman with a .395 OBP the season before traded. They Twins thought that it was not good enough. And he was 4 years younger than Mauer.
  5. Thrylos
    There is zero evidence that it was an 1-1 swap. Just talk. As there was talk that the Twins insisted on Bellinger and that's why it did not happen. Hope the kid is fine, btw.
  6. Thrylos
    I have been trying to think of a similar situation with Mauer, and the player who is closest has to be Todd Helton. He signed a 2 year / $10 million deal to play his last 2 seasons with the Rockies. He was a bit older, but he did not have a concussion like Mauer did, so I think that the performance/aging curves are similar. What is different is that those Colorado teams were 90 loss non-contenders. I just cannot see a situation where the contending Twins can have Mauer on their bench primarily for 2-3 seasons without that being a disturbance or drag the team the wrong way...
  7. Thrylos
    Way too early to think about the 2019 off-season and it depends on many many things. - How the Twins do in 2018 overall - How Mauer and Morrison do (kinda need one for 1B in 2019) - How Dozier and Gordon and Escobar and Adrianza do (need one for second base in 2019) - I think that Santana is a goner after this season - May, Romero, Gibson, Mejia, Gonsalves, Littell will likely fighting for 3 spots behind Berrios and Odorizzi, depending on how they did on 2018 (that's mainly for May and Gibson who could potentially be non-tender candidates.) - As far as Grossman goes, he will have to make the team in 2018 (his contract is non-guaranteed) before start thinking about 2019, and as of now he seems behind the 8 ball... - Transactions. If let's say the Twins are competing for the division come July, and get an arm or so, let's say Archer, all bets for 2019 are off. Same if they do not compete and trade assetts. - The pen will be a mystery because all are in play for 2018 as well, other than Rodney, Reed and Duke... Nobody knows who will win a spot and tons of relievers have options...
  8. Thrylos
    6 teams? Hmmmm. Let's add up: NL East: Washington, the Mets, and maybe the Phillies if they add an arm or two. That's 2.5 NL Central Cubs, Milwaukee, Cardinals (and the Reds have one of the highest player contracts out there, but let's ignore that.) That's 3, so 5.5 NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Arizona, Rockies, and even the Padres signed Hosmer. That's 4.5 Total 10. Not sure what he is talking about or whether he can add or not.
  9. Thrylos
    Difficult? According to whom? It makes no sense for this team to offer him anything more than a qualifying offer. He might have a difficult decision to make...
  10. Thrylos
    I don't know who had him in the top 3, but unless you can find that, you might be talking about my ranking, where I had him 6th. Ranking and reasoning here. And, yes, he has been MLB-ready with the glove for a couple seasons now. His issue used to be that he (like Navarreto now and always btw) could not hit his way out of a paper bag. Catchers do develop later unless they are freaks like Mauer or Posey
  11. Thrylos
    FWIW Garver hit 238/.333/.429 (.762 OPS, 105 OPS+, .326 wOBA) against LHP last season in the majors. That is not bad. If he gets all LHPs and about 1/4 of the RHPs the Twins should be fine in 2018. Just don't play him at the OF or 1B...
  12. Thrylos
    No. And this is not a bad thing. Romero needs to a. get extended and b. work on that changeup. He can do neither at the big camp right now.
  13. Thrylos
    The comparison is about half right. Buxton has not had an OPS north of .730 in any season (or an OPS north of .705 against RHP in any season.) As a matter of fact he only had an OPS north of .800 for only 2 consecutive months. (July and August of 2018.) If Buxton gets an OPS close to .775 or so, then the Twins should start thinking an extension. Sano should be a higher priority to extend right now, since he is a better hitter and has longer service time
  14. Thrylos
    FWIW, this is not true. Information that the MLB uses to make employment decisions is not protected by any privacy laws, since it is not USDOJ info (privacy act of 1974) because no police report was ever filed, social security/financial info (Sarbanes Oxley), or personal health information (HIPAA.) They can release everything they can, and they should, in order to be transparent. So far it is a she says, he says information that lacks any (named or outed) witnesses (and the 2 other individuals involved - memorabilia shop owner and agent - suggested that they did not observe anything because they were not in the area at the time...)
  15. Thrylos
    There are a few things that should be under consideration: - The Astros of the last 2-3 seasons legitimized the reasons why teams should try to get as many top prospects as possible, play them to figure out who are the best and then when close to their prime, supplement them with talent to close holes and win. Sorry, this might be regarded as "tanking", but the Astros won more World Series than the Yankees this decade. - Indeed the salaries (top and median) grew much faster than the luxury tax threshold, which in every market makes it a need for correction - There are way too many bad contracts. They were back in the day as well, but the poster boys of those bad contracts then (7/$126M to Barry Zito, and 8/$121M to Mike Hampton) do not look horribly out of place now. They are about half of the Cano, Pujols, A-Rod, Cabrerra, Stanton contracts. Yet another market correction about how much you pay players about to retire happened. - Front Offices got smarter. There is a huge difference between a 6 win player and a 3 win player. Previous front offices did not get the concept of value and were willing to overpay for those aging 3-win players. Not any more. Lynn, Cobb, & Arietta are caught in this situation, esp. now that the savvier FOs realize that a 1st or 2nd round draft pick as a prospect might worth some $. The Qualifying Offer hurt the players more than it helped them... - The best thing that can happen for baseball right now, it would be if one of those "tanking" clubs made it to the post-season (not unlike the Twins did last season) based on what they get from their prospects...
  16. Thrylos
    The draft pick they will get if they make a qualifying offer will probably worth more than the prospect they will receive with him as a rental.
  17. Thrylos
    Nah you just need your 2 and 3 to be better than the other teams' (in the LDS and LCS and WS). And this assumes that you are not in a wildcard situation because then you need your number 1 to be better than their number 1... number 2 and number 3 will pitch 4 games between them. 4 wins are enough.
  18. Thrylos
    Do tell. Name names please (this side of the millennium preferably)
  19. Thrylos
    That 4-men rotation plus a swingman was state of the art in the 1980s. With the unbalanced schedule now does not make too much sense because of the high likelihood of games suspended due to weather, doubleheaders etc. He might want to do it, but I think that it just is not practical.
  20. Thrylos
    Exactly. A few more interesting things about minor league ST games: - there are only against Boston, Tampa or Baltimore because of proximity - about half of the teams will be traveling, so there are usually a couple games a day - sometimes major leaguers in rehab come and play there as well - sometimes a rehabbing player hits in every inning out of order to get 3-4 quick PAs and then he goes - games against other teams are every day but Sunday. On Sundays AAA plays AA and A+ plays A - Rookie league players usually play among themselves
  21. Thrylos
    Indeed. As a matter of fact, Sano does not look fat. I just wish that Falvey got rid of those old-timers, they are the problem here and not Sano.
  22. Thrylos
    +26 wins, and reaching the postseason after an 103 loss season. Much superior to any other organization and I'd say no one was expecting. Math does not lie
  23. Thrylos
    This is a new DH era. Teams are using the position to rotate players. As a matter of fact, as far as the DH position goes, the Twins were 4th in the AL in wOBA, t4th in wRC+, and 7th in OPS, according to fangraphs. Great to have Morrison, no argument there, but the DH production was hardly the Twins' issue last season, compared to the rest of the league
  24. Thrylos
    They might have to wait a couple of months since the Pirates put Burdi on the 60-day DL
  25. Thrylos
    Valencia has burned many bridges with the Twins. There is no way I see him coming back. John Swol over at Twinstrivia.com posted a great set of podcasts interviewing Wayne Hattaway, that are a must listen. Hattaway mentions a few things about Valencia there...
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