Thrylos

Lots of people passed him for a #1 the past couple seasons

Dozier that much higher than Plouffe and Escobar that much lower than both? Nah. Check their ages and numbers and salaries again Perkins and Jepsen are missing. So is E. Santana. Gonsalves is way too low. Would you trade him for Milone? (laughter.) Pretty sure that Jay cannot be traded, since he has not been around for a year. As far as value goes, I think that it is nonsensical to trade low. So I's put: Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Gonsalves, and Buxton in one bucket Stewart, Walker, Michael, Duffey, Rogers, Lee in another lower Dozier, Plouffe, Perkins, Hughes, E. Santana, in another May, Hicks, Gibson,Escobar, Jepsen, in another Milone, Pressly, Nunez, in a third.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch --- postmortem noun medical : an examination of a dead body to find out the cause of death : a discussion or analysis of something (such as an event) after it has ended (Thanks to Merriam-Webster) The Twins' season ended a full two weeks ago, in arguably their only meaningless game this season, and enough time has past to be able to look at what happened in 2015, without the disappointment of not making it to the post-season, even though they were so close, being front and center. As far as expectations go, most fans and the press did not expect the Twins to have a winning season in 2015, much less a season competing for a post-season spot. My point of view was a bit different: I suggested that the Twins needed to do only 3 things after 2014, to be able to compete in 2015. It was a pretty bold suggestion by any means, so I did have to qualify it as follows: At first read, the title of this series sounds very much like A Midsummer Night's Dream: Do I dare suggest that the team that went from 99 to 96 to 96 to 92 losses the past five seasons needs to do only three things to compete? The next number to that Arithmetic Progression up there is between 88 and 92 and that is not competing by any means. Let me explain my train of thought here before the nice kind people in white come and get me to warmer climates: [..] In order to make significant, measurable and effective change, you cannot focus on changing 20 things. Too many balls in the air, some will drop. Focusing of few things that you can change and make an effort to do so, is much more effective. Let's see what were those three things, in reverse order of suggesting, and how the Twins did: 1. Fixing the Attitude: The clubhouse was different in 2015 that in was in 2016, and that was partially because the attitude was different. Part of it was dismissing Ron Gardenhire and Company. Back then I suggested that breaking ties with Gardernhire, Anderson, Ulger and Steinbach (even though they did not go far enough in my opinion, but this is all another matter,) is the equivalent of starting the seasons with (at least) plus five wins. I think that the results show that this was pretty much correct, if anything, the five wins number might have been on the conservative side. One cannot help to think what would had happened, had Terry Ryan chosen Paul Molitor instead of Ron Gardenhire to lead the Twins back at the first time in 2002, but that is a whole different story... Another thing that the Twins did in 2015 to change the attitude was to sign Torii Hunter. It made no sense from baseball reasons to bring in a 40-year old player with diminished skill to play every day, and potentially block several top prospects. And that he did. Trying to justify Hunter's signing, I wrote: Torii Hunter [..] has had the reputation of playing hard and giving it all. And keep working. And then work some more. Hopefully, he will bring the right attitude to the team of so many young players with so much potential. Hopefully he will be an example for hard work and never giving up. And never stop working. It looks like it happened and the Twins are looking to bring him back in 2016 for that reason. I will not comment on events that have not happened, and this piece is not for 2016, so I refrain judgement. As far as accomplishing this, the 2015 Twins, hit a bull's eye akin to the one that is outside their ballpark 2. Fixing the Outfield. The 2015 Twins Outfield defense was very bad. It was bad enough for me to title the piece that was describing the defensive metrics of the 2014 Twins' outfield, Catchers in the Outfield. My premise back then was that with small changes and improvement of the young players like Aaron Hicks, even though Hunter is a below average outfielder, the Twins could have an average outfield. My conclusion was this: So, the total differential is about 36 runs, or 6 wins better than 2014, using this calculation. This still projects a below average outfield (basically because of Hunter at RF,) just not an outfield as horrible as 2014. Thus the 36 run differential vs the 57 for an average with that calculation. Can the outfield get even closer to average? Actually, the 2015 Twins, exceeded this expectation. Their outfield was 8 runs above average. How did that happen? Practically replacing Oswaldo Arcia with Eddie Rosario (+10 runs in 2015) more that half of the season, the improvement of Aaron Hicks (-3 in 2014,+2 in 2015) the sporadic play of Byron Buxton (+4), Shane Robinson (+3) was enought to balance Hunter's glove (-8). Even when the two utility players (Nunez (+1) and Escobar (0)) played the outfield, they did not hurt the Twins, like Gardernhire's catchers. A second bull's eye for the Twins. 3. Fixing the bullpen. might not be bad in Meatloaf's world, but it was in the Twins', since the state of their bullpen, was the major reason they did not make the post-season in 2015. Looking at several pitching metrics, I concluded that the Twins had only 2 pitchers who were above the proverbial average pitcher in 2014: Glen Perkins and Tim Stauffer. The problem was that Stauffer forgot how to pitch starting at Opening Day, and Perkins' effectiveness nose dove after the All-Star break. Two of my suggestions on how to fix the pen by adding above average relievers was to turn Mike Pelfrey to a reliever (which would had happen, if Ervin Santana was not suspended before he threw a pitch in a Twins' official game, and would had been intriguing to see) and see what Trevor May can do in the pen. I wrote on May: Similar discussion with Pelfrey, his 91.9 mph FB average will get to the mid 90s as a reliever, plus he had the second best K% of the group in the majors and a respectable SwStr% (mostly as a starter, and will get better as a reliever.) And the cherry on top is that we led the 2014 Twins' pen with 2 Ground Balls per Fly Ball and a 57.1% GB%. May projects as an above average reliever. Spot on, but still was not enough for the Twins. And here is where the frustration with the Twins' front office comes in 2015. They know that they are competing, they know that their bullpen is leaking. At the All Star Break the Twins was 2 games ahead in the second wild card spot, half a game before the Angels for the first wild card spot. At the trading deadline the fell 2 games behind the Angels and were holding to their lead for the second spot by just a game above Baltimore and Toronto. Getting Kevin Jepsen, albeit effective was the only positive move that Ryan made in the deadline. At that point, the Twins had only Jepsen and May as above average pitchers. Thirty five year old Neal Cotts and his 5.99 FIP were just dumpster diving as usual. To quote Meatloaf again, there ain't no Coup de Ville hiding at the bottom of a Cracker Jack box, and the Twins' general manager should know that by now... And the came so close. Hopefully for 2016, close will not be enough, but that is a story to be told later. So Two out of Three were bad... My overall expectation for the 2015 season after I saw the 2015 Twins play in Spring Training was positive. I wrote: I did get some 1987-like excitement there, like this might be a magic year (like that one.) But I think that they are one year away. So my prediction for 2015 is that the Twins will have the same record as their Pythagorean in 1987: 79-83. But, yes, this year feels a lot like 1987, and you never know what is going to happen... So the story of the 2015 Minnesota Twins goes: it came so close to happen. Maybe they are indeed just one year away...

No, by any means: Mauer/Plouffe at the MLB level Vargas/Kepler at the AAA level DJ Hicks/Bryan Haar at the AA level Trey Vavra at the A+ level Chris Paul, Pat Kelly somewhere in the equation as well Plus Amaurys Minier and Lewin Diaz are Twins top prospects that will end up at 1B likely as well. And I am not talking about Sano/Walker who people slate as first basemen for some reason The Twins are loaded at first base.

Taking PAs from Mitch Garver at AA is one downside. At this point the Twins have a bit of a logjam of iffy catchers at AAA and AA and only the aforementioned Garver, Pinto, Paulino and Turner with potential (more or less, but more than Mr Maloney.) Add a couple more catchers at AA and AAA and it becomes a numbers game really quickly... Also, yes, it is exactly zero risk, but is it exactly zero excitement as well BTW. Mike B. (and MLBTR that posted that story based on his writeup) was about a week too late on this

A couple things: Kids. Vavra has 2 sons in the system: 25 year old Tanner Vavra hitting .258/.346/.300 (.646 OPS) in A+, as 2.4 years older than the league and 23 year old Trey Vavra hitting .346/.406/.538 in A, as 1.6 years older that the league. Tanner looks like his dad, but Trey is a bit taller and more athletic. Tanner is not doing that well, Trey is indeed doing unexpectedly well, but got to see what he can do in AAA Vavra replaced Al Newman in the Twins' coaching stuff after the 2005 season. Ullger moved to Newman's position (third base) and Vavra to Ullger's (hitting.) Not outside of the organization. Vavra was the Twins' minor league fielding coordinator from 2002-2005... Not one of the original Gardy 5, but Gardy's guy for seven seasons, from 2006-2014

Greg Bird This guy. To the OP: Links to the people you are talking about would help

Here is the Twins' problem: Their rotation (and starting pitcher player acquisition strategy - 5/8 of those names are not home grown) has emphasized quality over quantity. In this list (other than Berrios who is untested) there is nobody who would be even a number 2 in any of the teams that made the 2015 post-season. If you have a rotation with a bunch of number 3s and 4s and 5s and AAAA guys, you will not win and if you do, you will not go far in the post-season. I'd add another name to the equation, the one who has the highest potential of them all in the Twins' organization, but it forgotten for some reason: Alex Meyer. He is on the 40-man roster, he should be handed the ball in the Spring and I hope that he has something to prove. So you got 9. You got to get rid of quality and focus on quantity. May and Hughes have proven that they can be very good (May) to lights out (Hughes as a Yankee) relievers. Add Jepsen and Perkins and you got 4 good plus relievers (depending how Perkins health is.) So you are solving another problem (but still need 3 more arms, at least one of them should be a lefty.) Two of the 9 down. Still too many. Got to trade 2. And got to sell as high as you can and go with ceiling. That would be Santana and Milone. Trade for salary relief. This leaves you with 5, but without an ace. Sign Jordan Zimmerman for what Santana made (and what Milone is projected to make maybe) for 4 years or so. He has top of the rotation material, so that hole might be filled, and you got 8 pitchers for 2 spots to fight it out at ST. Yes, I am including Nolasco, who actually has some pretty good stuff (best CB in the staff, for one,) had a decent FIP (3.51) and an outrageous BABIP (.392) and see what he can do. Ideally everything will work out and the Twins will come out of ST with a rotation of: Zimmerman, Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, Nolasco, with Duffey in AAA (along with Rogers, Dean, Wheeler). This would mean that the guys with the highest ceilings pitched lights out and made it, which is a good thing... There are options, but the Twins have to be brave and take a bit of a risk out there.

Have you checked the relative performances of Polanco and Santana? Just out of curiosity. Polanco's worst season as a non-teenager, was 2015 when as a 21 year old he hit .288/.339/.386 in AA, AAA and the majors. I'd say that his worst season, should be indicative of his floor. So, I'd agree that it is high. We have seen Santana's ceiling. We have not seen Polanco's by any means. I think that his floor is Brandon Crawford. That is higher than Santana's ceiling... How high Polanco's ceiling is, depends on how much power he develops. We know that he will hit for average and will get on base. Longevity aside, I see no reason that Polanco cannot have a Jeter-like career (even glove-wise.) Of course, it is not a secret that I think that Polanco was a better prospect than Buxton about this time last year (and Sano was better than both.)

Nah. Go back in time further and hand the manager's job to Molitor instead of Gardenhire in 2002.

No. Zimmerman is a much better choice (and even then, the Twins need to find a home for one of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco)

"Scout School?" He had a BA from Harvard and an MBA from Carnegie-Mellon. Methinks that "Scout School" helped a tad less... Plus part of his job with Toronto was contract negotiations (like what Antony does with the Twins.)

I'd be rooting for the Mets this post-season. Wanted a Mets-Astros series, but Mets-Toronto might be alright... (Hate the Cubs - too much WGN and Harry Caray homerism back in the day, and shall never root for a team in the Twins' division.)

They were eliminated last night

There was a Baseball Prospectus analyst that was hired in 2002 (full 10 years before Goldstein to Astros) by the Blue Jays. His name? Law; Keith Law.

In your list, isn't 2 really the end and the rest the means towards that end? And wouldn't making to and winning world series be the biggest driver for number 2? Lots of data on that. On field performance translates to financial performance in professional sports.

Judging a GM only on trades or only on free agent signing or only on draft picks, does not make any sense. If there were a singular thing a GM chould be judged on is World Championships and World Series appearances. Ryan is oh for 17 in those metrics. But there is isn't. Ryan did make a couple of good trades, did botch a couple of others, did sign a couple of decent free agents and did sign a bunch of bad ones and let a future hall of famer go. The thing with Ryan is risk adversity. And it shows in many ways: Will not make a blockbuster, will not trade players and prospects at the peak of their value and will not sign top of the line free agents. Instead he will make small, corrective type of moves of medium risk, medium reward. That's ok if you have a team like the Yankees had a decade ago. Not ok for the 2010s Twins... Got to risk something to get a high reward. Too bad that this piece does not get this and does not look at the big picture here... Cannot look at trades in a vacuum

Goodrum might be that (because he still cannot hit his way out of a paper bag ) Punto had.690 OPS in AA and .670 in AAA. 2 back to back .800+ OPS seasons from Michael in AA, is not Punto-like.

I think that Michael is too low in this list. Will easily crack my top 20 list. Middle infielders with 800 OPS in AA two seasons in a row do not grow on trees. Really encouraged with his progress with the bat and on the bases the past 2 season. He is on the same trajectory with Dozier (if not a bit ahead; both 24 at AA.) I think that he will be with the Twins in September and he is a potential Dozier replacement (less power, better speed and much better hit tool) long term. So I guess we differ on Michael. Just hope the Twins protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Yeah, he does a hard time staying healthy, but so does the guy that will likely lead your list (with that rookie eligibility criterion )

Yes, but I'd tried to expand it to make the $ and the roster spots work by adding Nolasco for a prospect and/or Perkins for someone like Brendan McCurry or RJ Alvarez.

In how many of those post-season rotations would Milone be?

If they suspend Utley, they should suspend the second base umpire and the crew chief as well.

Got a dial up modem, too?

Not that different that what Swisher did to Nishioka. I guess there needed to be a big market team on the receiving end to get national writers' outrage and call for rules' changes and suspensions. Very unfortunate...