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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    I have no problem with extending Gibson I have a problem with extending Plouffe. Plouffe is in his prime maybe a tad beyond. Career .245/.308/.420 and 99 OPS+ (league average). And last season's numbers were there. Lots of similarities with Dozier, albeit Plouffe's defense (unlike Dozier's) is improving. And there is a ready replacement that will actually solve the Twins logjam in the OF/1B/DH situation and bring a better bat at 3B. I would be surprised if Plouffe lasts past the deadline, and he should not...
  2. Thrylos
    If you are going to extend someone under 5 more years of control and have them opt-out after the 5th year of an extension, there is close to zero incentive to extend them other than (maybe) the total amount of the extension will be less that what he would have gotten in arbitration and that is a gamble... So if you are going to have opt outs for Sano, they better start after the 7th year or so. I would have not problem signing Sano to a 10 year contract with a couple of options after than. That would take care of him until age 32, which will include most of his prime.
  3. Thrylos
    Because they have 24-25 year olds Steve Baron and Mike Zunino (former 1st rounders at the MLB and AAA level) and 21 year old Tyler Marlette at the A/AA level; and not to mention Jesus Montero. Several others too, They are loaded
  4. Thrylos
    John Hicks is better than Stuart Turner both with the glove and the bat, and his arm is ridiculous (close to 50% CS.) Not as good a bat as Garver, but, if you throw away PCL and his cup of coffee at Seattle, his second tour at Jackson (same league as Chattanooga) and his AFL numbers are pretty impressive. BA (i.e. John Perroto writing for them) had him as Seattle's 13th best prospect in 2014.
  5. Thrylos
    Tonkin is an one pitch pony. He only has a fastball. And it is straight. Which means that major league hitters will time it and drive it. Minor leaguers have hard time with a 95 mph straight fastball occasionally. That's why Tonkin's AAA numbers are great and his MLB numbers (in 53+ IP) are not that great.
  6. Thrylos
    Gate. 1000% (most of the time) First of all, online charges you 2 fees for an additional $15 per ticket or so it seems. Second, there are tickets at the counter that for some reason are invisible online, so there is more selection. Exception: Red Sox and Yankees games. Tend to sell out and the counter has sitting room only. There is a third way to buy tickets: Lots of scalpers in the parking lot will ask you if you need any for a surcharge. Unless it is a full house and there are standing room only tickets and you mind that, it is not worth it. For some reason the parking lot Twins' employees turn the other way about his disgrace...
  7. Thrylos
    Best pitch he threw all night (Nah that looking K slider at 87 was it...)
  8. Thrylos
    Now you got one correct Jepsen? based on 3 months of stellar play? No way. He is 32 years old. He is in his declining phase for sure (1015 average velocities: FB -2.2 off his peak, SL -2.7 off his peak.) SIERA and xFIP for 2015 well above career average. K% in 2015, way below career average. Burdi, Chargois, Reed all will be better than him in 2017. No need to extend.
  9. Thrylos
    This speaks tons about Sano's makeup, leaving his private life at home and not making it a show, like others do. And kudos to Mientkiewcz for silently helping him through it, while respecting his privacy.
  10. Thrylos
    Here is something we agree on. I would not mind extending Escobar for Harris years and Money. Harris' extension was for 2 years and $1.45M & $1.75M. Give the inflation in salaries, that would be about $2.5 M and $3 M. So it would be alright Escobar backs up Polanco No to any extension of any player unless he can have at least a .300 OPS in the majors. Rosario has to prove that he is not a 4th OF. Those are a dime a dozen (or $1-2 M in the majors in a MiLB contract) Triples and assists are fine, but he's got to prove that he is more than that. Do you really want to extent a guy with 5 years of team control and .289 OBP, 24.9% K%, and 3.2% BB%? Sorry, but that is a waste.
  11. Thrylos
    Fangraphs is a site. Like this site. Lots of people writing there and have lots of different, often conflicting, points of view. Like this site. One can disagree with a particular individual's opinion, but not the site. Fangraphs has no opinion. In addition to the individual opinions, it has facts (stats and projections - numbers) that are the results of certain mathematical equations. One can argue about the use of those stats and projections and argue what they can possibly mean, but if one disagrees on whether or not 1+1 = 2 or 3/6 = .500, it is a totally different story.
  12. Thrylos
    Young vs. veteran should not be the question here. I want the Twins to go up North with their 7 (?) best relievers, and the 25 best players in general. This is a team that competed last season so it should start acting like a competing team. BTW, so far it looks like the Twins are experiencing the curse of Brian Duensing. None of the lefties who are auditioning for his spot have been good so far, with a couple of the most promising on paper (Rogers and Melotakis) melting down. Nope. O'Rourke at 27 is not young (well in baseball terms), he is just inexperienced. Tonkin is likely the next in the DFA list... I like what I have seen from Chargois so far
  13. Thrylos
    The number of innings (9 or 10) really depends on a. how early in the ST season the game is and b. how many pitchers there are left who have not pitched. Teams usually travel with just +1 than planned pitcher most of the time and early, when starters go 2, you will not see 10 inning games.
  14. Thrylos
    That's about right, other than Park maybe. Glad to see someone scoring Polanco's fielding at SS the way it is, instead of propagating suburban legends...
  15. Thrylos
    Got to look at the check boxes and what you check or uncheck. You likely did not check the automatic renewal box, thus.... That's on you.
  16. Thrylos
    This is great analysis, but it really has not looked into most people concerns about Duffey: a. Does he have the endurance to be a starter? b. How effective can a starter who has only 2 pitches be facing MLB competition? For me the jury is still out on both. Here is some data about From here Innings 1-3, opponents hit .150/.206/.240; he has 1.86 ERA Innings 4-6, opponents hit .287/.374/.436; 2.52 ERA Innings 7- opponents hit .560/.560/.760; 15.76 ERA Before rosters expanded: 4.29 ERA, 1.619 WHIP (.339 BABIP), 8.6 K/9, 1.82 K/BB, opponents hit .280/.366/.451 After rosters expanded: 2.46 ERA, 1.135 WHIP (.311 BABIP), 8.0 K/9, 3.67 K/BB, opponents hit .241/.288/.343 Clearly he has trouble the second and third time through the order and was horrible after the first 6 innings. Also, it is not clear how many major leaguers that curveball fooled. That walk rate before rosters expanded, is worrisome. SSS and all, those are just red flags and he has to prove himself. Let's not anoint him the Twins' next savior. Worse comes to worst he could be great as a late inning in the pen.
  17. Thrylos
    Escobar was for real after the 2013 season. All the signs were there and fairly obvious. Just the Twins' front office and their manager could not read them. That was the winter that Ryan brought back Jason Bartlett, for crying out loud...
  18. Thrylos
    This series starts to begin to read a bit like who not to extend Perkins: a. likely already in the declining phase of his career b. the last 3 seasons had second halves ranging from bad to disastrous for a closer; ie he has not proven himself that he can close at a high level for a full season c. has been having reverse splits so even a LOOGY situation is not desirable d. His stuff has declined in velocity, which I suspect is the result of his ineffectiveness. Happens if you are a 2 pitch pony and your slider does not quite break the way it has been e. The Twins have at least half a dozen young relief pitchers and another half a dozen starters who could end up in the pen who will be better than Perkins when the Twins do not control him under the current contract. Buxton: a. you don't need to. Even if he is like Longoria. The Rays are paying for that contract. b. you don't even know what kind of big league hitter he will be. His floor is either Mike Cameron or Vince Coleman. If it is Coleman, you should not extend him. c. He has issues that are obvious: Ability to deal with major league breaking stuff: Understanding when a breaking ball is a strike or a ball. d. So unless he fixes c. and figure out where he is on b., which can be this season, btw, there is way too much risk to extend him and it is totally unnecessary Is Plouffe or Mauer next on the line for an extension?
  19. Thrylos
    Because Dozier hits more HRs and has an 0.050 advantage at SLG%. OPS is a sad way to compare top of the order hitters. And in Polanco's age, Dozier was hitting with an aluminum bat. Plus, my point was that Polanco is a SS; someone else would replace Dozier. Either Nunez or Michael
  20. Thrylos
    Escobar is 2 years younger than Dozier. Career stats mean zero when you comparing a player in his prime and one who entering his prime. Escobar's .754 was on the rising part of his bell curve, while Dozier's .751 at best at the top of the curve, or maybe even the decline. So you got to try to predict who will be better in 2016 and beyond. The past is the past, and you can use it to try to build a career curve.
  21. Thrylos
    Polanco's bat is better than Dozier's. Polanco hit .289/.346/.393 in Chattanooga last season, and Dozier hit .236/.307/.444. Slightly higher OPS because of the SLG% and HRs difference. Polanco is not a power hitter yet. And on the top of the order, I'd rather have a guy who gets on base and makes better contact than Dozier. But I am not talking about Polanco as Dozier's replacement because I see him as a SS. So with Polanco as SS you got the option to move Escobar to 2B (who will be an upgrade both with the glove and the stick over Dozier) or, if you think that Polanco is not ready now, you wait until he is ready and play Nunez (who on limited role hit for a slightly higher OPS, OPS+, OBP, and BA than Dozier last season, so you do not have a drop with the bat.) You might lose some HRs, but RH power is not lacking in the 2016 Twins. Also Really high on Levi Michael, and check out his AA record... Plus, if you can get someone at the Jepsen/Perkins plus level in the pen and a prospect for Dozier, you will actually be improving the team. Nobody is saying trade for players 2-3 years away So the Twins can actually both trade Dozier and improve the team to make them more of a contender in 2016. If you have to wait until the deadline do it, but there is no way you should extend him.
  22. Thrylos
    Sub the word "trade" for "extend", and you'd be right on with these 2. Dozier has been regressing, both with the stick and the glove. Got to sell high. As far as Suzuki goes, Hicks is way better with the glove and at least equal with the stick.
  23. Thrylos
    A bit too generous for someone who has never had an OPS of .700 in the minors yet. (which is below average in the majors.) My take: Best case scenario for his floor (and thus not really a floor) is Florimon2.0 Most likely floor: Solid Average Independent League Regular.
  24. Thrylos
    Speaking of... After that trade: J. Santana: 15.2 bWAR, 13.1 fWAR C. Gomez: 23.3bWAR+, 24.9 fWAR+ Got to give that one to Smith. If only the manager of the millennium could communicate with Gomez...
  25. Thrylos
    Kinda pointless to argue about ERA, but the above is a false statement, Duffey does.
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