Thrylos

.285/.375/.410 (an about 5% improvement from his second half 2015 stats.)

I think that Kepler is in camp because Buxton has shown nothing with the stick.

The Twins have exactly one pitcher with ace potential. Makes zero sense to want to pitch him in relief.

I suspect that you mean Miguel Gonzalez This was more than a bit of surprise, sub 2.00 ERA, sub 1.000 WHIP more than 9K/9 and less than 2 BB/9 do not grow on trees...

Originally Published at .351/.387/.524 - The Twins' team slash line with less than two outs and men on third in 2015. .489/.460/.766 - The Twins' team slash line with one out and men on third in 2015. .000/.100/.100 - The Twins team slash line under the above circumstances today. They simply have to do better than this to compete in the upcoming season. And if that means trying to get the ball in play softly, instead of trying to hit home runs (Brian Dozier, Carlos Quentin, Oswaldo Arcia) or take a worthless base on balls (Kurt Suzuki,) let it be it. And the problem here is that at least 3 of the aforementioned 4 will make the 2016 Twins, but still have not understood those fundamentals. Today's Twins' game was closer that the box score would suggest. Also based on today's play, I am about to make a prognostication: Prognostication: Danny Santana won a job in the 25-man roster for 2016. Santana was one of the few Twins who played like they wanted to get a job today. Two good hits in his first plate appearances and good follow ups on the bases, negate loosing the ball in the sun at RF in the later innings. He played like he wanted that job, and I think that it is his to lose. Albeit, Carlos Quentin did not do so. Struck out twice with a man on third and less than two outs, and was a disaster about to be made in first with the globe (but thankfully did not happen.) Byron Buxton was pretty awful today. Yes, he took first on bases on balls by avoiding slapping at balls in the dirt in the first inning and moved to second on a mistake, but failed to score from second on a smoking single to RF corner by Santana in the same inning. Hard time in the rest of his plate appearances and the cherry on top was the 3 pitch strikeout in his last inning. Pretty sure that Buxton does not get it, and I don't know what he needs to get it. The one thing that he does not need is pampering and false hopes and major league roster sports. He has to start at AAA, until he can prove that he is the hitter people hoped he will be. Also, he looks at least one step slower, since he was called out on a ball that he hit to deep short, a ball that he would have beaten last season easily for an infield single. Unless he did not get slower, but got lazier. Regardless, the big leagues are way above his head right now and I hope that the Twins brass do not make the mistake to bring him up North soon. Kyle Gibson made another brilliant appearance, allowing mainly ground balls. His outing was very much like the one I described a few days ago. Likely will be the Twins second or third starter this season. Taylor Rogers who relieved Gibson had a good outing with a fastball between 86 and 91 mph and a curve between 75 and 77. Nothing spectacular, and had a lot of us on an edge, but it was effective. So was Glen Perkins'. He threw fastballs at 91, 91, 91, 89, 89, 94, 89, and 89 mph and two sliders at 78 and 81 mph in an 1-2-3 inning. About 3-4 mph below where he should be, but... Casey Fien threw his fastball between 88 and 91 mph, a single slider at 83 and a single changeup at 79 mph, retiring everyone he faced. Trevor May had a fastball of 91-94, changeup in the low 80s, and a curveball about 75-76, but was not effective and did not have even a decent defense behind him I expect more than a few cuts today. Tomorrow the Twins are playing the Orioles in the Hammond Stadium at 1:05 PM local time. ----

Murphy is out of options.

Back to the OP question: Ryan is by no means afraid to make a decision, because he was never held accountable for that one, and its consequences for the Twins (have a look at who was DH for the Twins in the post-season for example, and how those games went.) I see no fear. Fear of what? Even the newspapers back then were supportive of Ryan's decision to keep LeCroy over Ortiz.

Yes, that gun has been consistently a +2. Swarzak came in for the Yankees and hit a 96. 2 seasons ago, Duensing hit 97. This makes Perkins' 91 and JR Graham's 94 much more problematic. Re: Santana: He was up to 94 until they called the balk on him. His next 3 pitches were 95, 96, 97. Did not reach 95 again after that. But that is one hot radar

If you exclude the aberration of 2014, you have to go back to 2008 for Suzuki to have higher than .313 OBP. I just don't see it happening again. His 2014 BABIP was about .310 where his norm was at about .240-.250, so clearly that season was abnormal. 2015 was actually better for Suzuki than either 2012 or 2013, so I think that this is about as much as we can expect from him. My take: .230/.280/.310 and DFA to bring up Hicks. .260/.310/.370 is likely more realistic for Murphy. Hope he does better, but I don't expect it.

This is interesting indeed, but I'd love to see longer term data, like n+2, n+3 etc. The idea here is that once a UCL is replaced it will last longer in the intermediate/long term than a UCL that has been rehabbed and still likely has micro tears

Originally Published at The Tenth Inning Stretch -------------------------- The Minnesota Twins played the New York Yankees this afternoon at Hammond Stadium, featuring a lineup that could very well be their opening day lineup. The starter, Ervin Santana, pitched better than what you will see when you see his line score. He threw 69 pitches, mostly fastballs (91-94 mph; at some point right after the balk, he hit a 95, a 96 and a 97 mph in a row), sliders 82-84 mph and changeups 84-86 mph. All of his pitches were working well and he was getting both looking and swinging strikes. In the second inning, that he needed 21 pitches, he was squeezed badly by the home plate umpire who did not call the low strike he called in the previous evening and for Ivan Nova all night long. Santana is in mid-season form and will be the Twins' opening day starter, as discussed here about 40 days ago. Fernando Abad relieved Santana in the 6th inning and threw four kinds of pitches: a 90-92 mph Fastball, which did not fare well since it either was a ball or was contacted, and a couple times for hits, a 76-78 mph Curveball that was much better, a single 74 mph changeup that was taken for a strike and a single 87 mph cutter was was a ball. Not a clean inning by any means, but it was workable. Would Abad be better than any of the other LHRP possibilities in the Twins' pen? I am not sure and he has not really pulled away from the competition. Speaking of, JR Graham at this point is not a major league caliber pitcher. In addition to 20 lbs, he lost at least 2 mph in his (straight) fastball that now tops at 94 mph. Not a pretty picture today by any means. On the other hand, the Rule 5 draft pick two seasons before the Twins selected Graham, Ryan Pressly, looks like he belongs to the Twins pen. He threw a 94-96 mph fastball that had too much movement for the opposing batters to turn, a pretty nasty cutter/slider at 86-89 mph, and a solid 81-83 mph curve. He will definitely be an upgrade to the Twins pen, but will he be enough if he is the only one? On errors: Miguel Sano "booted" a ball in the Right Field when he moved to his left to get in the right trajectory of a line drive, he did, but it hit the base of his glove. E9. On the other hand, Brain Dozier "booted" a ball earlier in that evening, when he decided to dive for a ball that was totally catchable without a dive. Botched dive, scored as a hit. Carlos Quentin might be the stiffest baseball player I have seen play, and this includes such notables as Brian Buscher and Joshua Willingham. He came in to play first relieving Joe Mauer in the late innings and made a fairly comical play. When the ball touches a bat, Quentin puts his head down without looking at the ball and heads to first base to receive the ball potentially. In one of those instances the ball hit less than a foot in front of him, without him being either away or interested. Tailor made 3-6-3 double play, it just did not happen, and it is a shame. I just cannot see how the Twins can bring this guy up North, because what he brings is close to what Park brings to the table but will less glove and bat. Sorry Carlos, nice knowing you. Speaking of Byung Ho Park: Great adjustment in his first plate appearance: Ivan Nova definitely schooled not to throw anything but stuff outside the zone, started with 2 curveballs in the dirt, that Park took for balls. Then he threw a couple of chin low fastballs that Park missed swinging, but however adjusted and took the next 2 fastballs in the same location for balls and a walk. Great to see this from Park. Good double for Byron Buxton in the base of the wall and over the outfielders' head in the 5th. However there was a problem: JR Murphy who was on first, did not even attempt to score, a thing that he would have done easily and Buxton was robbed by a triple, a thing he would have done easily. There were zero outs, but the Twins have to be more aggressive in the bases this season, and really there is nothing much to lose, esp. in the Spring Training, being so... Tomorrow the Twins are hosting the Pirates at Hammond Stadium, with Kyle Gibson getting the starting node.

Good luck with your projects. Wishing you the best.

You took care of that with not having Tonkin in your roster

Really hard time seeing Duffey over Nolasco in the rotation. Hope the Twins open their eyes and put Duffey in the pen because a. he can succeed there and b. they need him there

Now that the International Drive entrance is practically open, the possibilities are endless, I suspect...

Still there for most of next week. Hope you enjoy your stay.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ----- The thunderstorm system that caused havoc in Central Florida and the Grapefruit League and cancelled the Twins' game against the Pirates in Bradenton, hit Fort Myers with its tail end and cut action in the Minor League Fields short. Here are my notes from today: With the Twins A+ and A teams playing at home against those of the Red Sox, I was looking forward to see Nick Gordon in action. Alas, he is still out injured. Andro Cutura, the Twins 7th round pick in the 2014 draft from Southeastern Louisiana University has never been on my radar, but now he will. He has an interesting 4 pitch mix: four-seamer, two-seamer, slider/cutter and a changeup. They all overlap in velocity and his range is up to 91 for the four-seamer and down to 81 mph for the changeup. He has great command and control of all his pitches and thew all of them in any count. All of his pitches have the potential of being swing and miss pitches. His velocity range is somewhat atypical for successful pitches, but his command is also atypical. He utilizes the whole zone, up, down, in and out, and he is not afraid to throw a sinker or a cutter in the dirt for the hitters to change. His windup will bring memories of Juan Berenguer to the older Twins' fans, since he starts it with both of his glove and ball arms extended in front of him. Easy mechanics with a small pause right before his release, which is enough to confuse the hitters. He pitched 3 great innings striking out 5 and having the rest of the hitters ground out. He fell apart in his fourth inning of work, allowing 4 consecutive singles after his first fly out. Not sure whether there stamina issues (the 22 year old missed all of 2014 recovering from injury) or whether his excellent sinker and cutter flatten when he pitches form the stretch, which was the case today. Definitely someone who is not a household name, to keep an eye on. Logan Wade, the 24 year old Australian who had an excellent 2013 in Elizabethton and then he fell off the face of the earth, looked very good today. In his first plate appearance, he singled to the opposite field, was successful in a delayed steal of second base when the ball was pitched in the dirt, and then scored from second on a single by TJ White to shallow right field. In his next plate appearance he hit a line drive home run to the opposite (right) field as a right hand batter against Boston's LHP Jalen Beeks. Speaking of TJ White, the 24 year old Twins' 18th round draft pick in 2014 from UNLV, has been riding a 4 AB hitting streak that he extended to 6 with singles in his first 2 plate appearances. Max Murphy, also 24 and the 9th round pick of the 2014 draft, had another excellent day with a long home run and a shoestring catch in the outfield. I wrote what he did about days ago here. Brian Navarreto, the 21 year old Twins 6th round pick in 2013 from Jacksonville, FL Arlington Day School, looked definitely bigger in statute from last Spring. At this point he looks bigger than Adam Walker. Navarreto was always regarded as a good catcher, but his hitting was been more than suspect. He has a very good plate appearance with a single at the opposite field, after he swang wildly at a breaking ball in the dirt, but let the next one go for a ball. There are some hopeful signs but there is still a lot of work necessary.

Agreed, that's why he just needs to junk that change. It just has never worked for him.

Talking about Nolasco or Perkins?

If the 2012 Twins won 30 more games and made it to the post-season and deep into the post season, I would bet that this would not be the case. His defense was a sore thumb in a 99 loss team...

Chances are equivalent to tackles and tackle attempts and I suspect he does not have more than a dozen a game of those... Plays are equivalent to opponent PAs. Biggest consideration: Football players have 6 days to recover. Baseball players do not. Also, unlike football players who only play the field, baseball players have to bat as well... Cannot compare baseball to football in any way. Different sports.

Nolasco today (Back Fields hand-held radar) 90-92 Fastball 73-77 mph Curveball, 82-84 mph Slider 80-82 mph split finger change

Eades used to pitch at the mid 90s the year he was drafted. Then surprisingly his velocity decreased as a pro. Now it seems to be back, which is great news.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- Another day without a Twins' home game and I decided to state at the back fields of Lee County Sports Complex to watch Ricky Nolasco pitch with the Twins' AAA team against the Red Sox' AAA team, instead of making the trip across I-75 to Jet Blue Park to watch the MLB Twins and Tyler Duffey face the MLB Sox. Despite what the Twins are saying, and not only because they are starting the same day these days, it is pretty clear that Tommy Milone is guaranteed a position in the rotation and the last spot will be a potential battle between Nolasco and Duffey. Nolasco pitched for 4 innings in Field 3 today. He threw four pitches, a 90-92 Fastball, a 73-77 mph Curveball, an 82-84 mph Slider and a 80-82 mph split finger change. All in all, Nolasco's appearance today was much better than that by Hughes yesterday. As with Hughes, Kurt Suzuki was Nolasco's catcher. Last week I wrote an in depth analysis of Nolasco's performance and among other things, I included an analysis of his pitches and results. And it was spot on based on my observations today: His curveball was totally filthy and induced both looking and swinging strikes and strikeouts and weak grounders. His split finger change is a pretty much awful pitch. Very little command and when it was in the strike zone did not fare well. This pitch, as per my previous recommendation, should never see the light of day or artificial day in a major league ballpark again. His fastball was better as the game went on with more command in the later than the earlier innings and he broke at least a couple bats with it. Definitely his breaking stuff is his out pitches and it is plus to plus plus. The problem is that he needs the good fastball so that major league hitters do not avoid his breaking balls and waiting for the fastball (or the horrible split finger.) If he throws his slider and curveball about 50%+ of the time, he has a good possibility for a come back season, depending on the day his fastball is having. Overall it was a very good performance over the eyes of a couple of scouts (Rangers & Padres) and Terry Ryan and the Twins' media dignitaries: Prognostication: based on his Spring Performances, his stuff and his career record, unless traded, Ricky Nolasco will be the Twins' fifth starter over Tyler Duffey who had another hard start today. A few more observations from Field Three today: I was looking forward to see the Twins' number 18 prospect for 2016, Daniel Palka for the first time live as a Twin. He hit a no-doubter home run in the first evening to the warehouse behind right Centerfield in his first plate appearance and then hit another long ball to far right for a foul in his second PA before eventually grounded out to first in a footrace. I like what I saw from him in a limited action. I think that he will turn into a useful player for the Twins and will bring in some left handed power they really lack... Speaking of left handed power, DJ Hicks, hit a very long home run, right about where Palka hit his. Really good to see him finally healthy and swinging the bat, since the Twins need that left hand power. Speaking of power, the Twins' number 19 prospect for 2016, Adam Brett Walker, hit two very long home runs in fastballs in the middle of plate and struck out in 3 breaking balls in the dirt in his other plate appearance. If someone teaches Walker to recognize the spin of the breaking ball and keep the bat on his shoulder when he sees it, will be doing him and the Twins a great service. Niko Goodrum, the Twins' number 37 prospect for 2016, who came a bit bigger this Spring showed much better plate recognition taking two walks in his first two plate appearances, but was thrown out stealing after the first, in a situation that would have been an easy SB for him last season, and made an error bobbling a ball at SS. OF is his position and hopefully this will be where he will play when the middle infield cuts from the MLB camp trickle down to the minors. After today's cuts, here are the players left who are competing for 7 spots in the Twins' pen: Glen Perkins Kevin Jepsen Trevor May Casey Fien Ryan O'Rourke JR Graham Ryan Pressly Mike Tonkin Logan Darnell Taylor Rogers Fernando Abad Buddy Boshers Dan Runzler Brandon Kintzler Nolasco or Duffey The first 8 (maybe with the exception of Pressly) were part of the 2015 bullpen that was one of the worst bullpens (maybe THE Worst, depending on how you are counting) in the league; one of the group of the next 5 lefties will replace Brian Duensing and one of the next two might replace Blaine Boyer. Unless the Twins decide to get Duffey a pen roll (which is unlikely since they will like him to start in Rochester,) this pen is spiting image of the 2015 pen that was as effective as spitting in the wind... This is by no means good news for the Twins...

One thing that Smith got wrong: The New Britain FRANCHISE moved to Hartford to a brand new stadium and became the Hartford Yardgoats, Eastern League AA Rockies affiliate. Another franchise New Britain Bees of the independent Atlantic League moved to that ballpark (with S Cliburn as their manager.) They used to be Campden (NJ) Riversharks, of the same Atlantic League In other words the ballpark is hosting an IL franchise, not that the Rock Cats turned into an IL franchise...