Thrylos

The velocity is not the problem, the results are the problem. Greg Maddux had Tommy Milone/Scott Diamond type velocity, but he had the pitches and knew how to pitch.

That usually happens for players before and at their primes. Both Perkins (33) and Fien (32) entering their declining years. Since for Perkins, allegedly, most of his issues are physical and (potentially) conditioning, I have a hard time seeing aging helping much with that. Perkins lost a good 2 mph of the average velocity of his slider from its peak and it is a very hitable pitch (below MLB average per pitch value metrics.) Would regression bring back its velocity and break? I doubt it. At some point when athletes get older, you have to starting thinking if what you see is the beginning of the end... I hope that it is not, but the Twins cannot have their seasons hang on hopes and prayers...

That is a very blanket (and untrue) statement. Here are Meyer's numbers as a reliever for the whole 2015: 3.08 ERA, 10.1 K/9, .248 OBA. Not that bad to begin with. Meyer was a reliever for 4 months, June through September. Take away July and you got: 1.34 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, .214 OBA, 9.6 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 So not only Meyer did not struggle as a reliever to begin with, with the exception of the month of July, he was pretty much lights out, despite his mechanical issues that increased his walks... I'd take those number from Perkins, if I could get them

Cannot look at those numbers alone, and something is missing from that discussion. We are looking at a difference between 44.8% in 2014 and 47.8% in 2015. 3%. Need to know what the standard deviation is before one can tell whether that difference (6.69%) is even statistically significant, especially when your sample size is 2 (seasons.)

I thought about Bard and really have to see him pitch this Spring and see him do well in Fort Myers or Chattanooga to regard him as a prospect. And not because of 2015 (which was a good season, albeit not great; still less than a K an inning and 2.99 FIP, facing much younger competition.) His 2012 and 2013 scare me and he has to prove a bit more that he can still find the plate, before I consider him as a prospect. Huge leap of faith from Gleeman on this one, which is kind of the opposite that he usually does, because Bard is very high risk...

1. Not really - Clippard was the last one. Unless someone believes that one from Bobby Parnell, Tim Lincecum, Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, or Phil Coke might come back this season The one free agent I would sign (now because there are not many takers - and to a hugely incentive deal) for 2017 and beyond, is Greg Holland, who is out for 2016 Will Smith is the one name that has been ringing in people's ears lately, but not sure what it will take. 2. Holland does, understandable that really is a 2-year deal. if Ryan is signing the likes of Nolasco and Santana to 4+ year deals, he should be able to invest (and it is cheaper) in the pen as well 3. I hope that Melotakis, Chargois, Burdi, Reed (at least) end up being better than Perkins and Jepsen. They better be Would this happen in 2016? Hope that at least a couple win spots. Taylor Rogers is a strong candidate for a Perkins-like career: Mediocre starter, good late inning reliever for a contender. My personal bias is that the Twins should have handed Phil Hughes the closer's job in 2016 and beyond. Has proven to be lights out as a reliever and he could be replaced by one of Berrios/Duffey/May/Meyer in the rotation with not much drop off in results, if not an improvement. That would kill a couple of birds, but you still need at least one or two of the kids to step up (and, no, O'Rourke or Tonkin are not part of the solution here...)

Data: 2015 @C Garver: 671.3 Inn, .993 Fld%, 6 PB, 38% CS, 61 Assists Turner: 824.4 Inn, .992 Fld%, 4 PB, 39% CS, 65 Assists Pretty darn close, Turner slightly better in PBs, Garver in Assists (got to factor innings and chances for those 2), the rest identical practically. That's what the facts say. I know that there are suburban legends, eyeballs, gut feelings, bias, promotions, favorites etc... suggesting otherwise, but I tend to pay more attention to facts.

2014: 99 SB, 36 CS 2013: 52 SB, 33 CS pretty much within standard deviation the past 3 seasons and Gardy's 2013 was worst. If anything teams just do not run or hit and run that much any more...

It's sad, but I think that the only one of the 4 "locks" mentioned (and I cannot see Fien as a lock, because the Twins can cut him and pay a portion of his contract in ST) who is reliable is Trevor May. Kevin Jepsen had a .224 BABIP and a career lows 2.3 BB/9 and 0.3 HR/9 last season with the Twins, which translated into a 0.893 WHIP and 1.61 ERA (2.56 FIP) 4.04 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA for the season, suggest that he will likely regress to being a decent 7th inning pitcher (which is what he has been most of his career). Casey Fien was pretty unreliable last season, and that with at .271 BABIP and a pretty ridiculous 6.8 HR/FB and a career low 1.1 BB/9. Despite all of that, he pitched to an opponents' .279/.326/.450 slash in high leverage situations. Mop up at best, and an expensive one that can easily be replaced by someone else who might actually have some upside, because at age 32, not that much for Fien. Which brings up to the "proven closer", Glen Perkins. Excuses aside, if you take Perkins as a reliever from 2011-2015, in 2015 Perkins had career worst in: ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K/9, GB %, HR/9, Contact%, Swinging Strike %, Slider Velocity and Slider effectiveness. Add a .373/.419/.431 slash line by LHHs and a .261/.327/.533 by any hitter with men in scoring position, and if I were Ryan or Molitor, this would not be a guy I want to hand the ball to in the 9th inning when I want to put the game in the bag. Second half Opponents hit off Perkins (OPS difference from 1st half) : 2015: .356/.394/.674 (+.605) 2014: .294/.337/.523 (+.221) 2013: .222/.299/.361 (+.177) This season was horrible, but it is a perennial problem. So, despite how much of a priority someones says that the bullpen was, apparently it was not, because actions speak louder than words, unless someone thinks that the 3 above can pitch always the way the pitch in their best moments... I still think that this pen needs 2-3 pitchers better than Jepsen and Perkins at this point to be a pen in a contending team...

have you checked out the subtraction of Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, Phil Hughes, Kurt Suzuki et al from the 2014 team?

Nah. If you are going to split Dozier and SSS him, you better do the same with Polanco. Polanco has a .950 MLB OPS 2015, day games AAA, he had a .971 OPS 2015, AA May, .844 OPS And here is the kicker: At the age that Polanco was last season (21), Dozier was still an amateur College player....

We shall see about 2016, but here is another thing: The 2014 team was 5th in the AL as far as OPS went and 15th as far as ERA. The 2015 team was 13th in the AL in OPS and 10th in ERA. So, I'd say, if anything the 2014 team might have have the advantage here. Pitching was much better (despite Ryan doing nothing about the Perkins situation) than in 2014 and Molitor, even with a bunch of hitters under-performing, took advantage of the situations better than Gardenhire. Do not forget that Andy came with Gardy and with Gardy getting the boot, an additional blessing is that this team got a better pitching coach... The rotation was essentially the same, so was the bullpen compared to 2014 and the results, were much different....

Just about 13 games in the standings with pretty much the same team... I wonder how far in the post-season would the Twins go, had Ryan made the correct choice for manager back in 2002...

Totally agree with Garver being (a much) better prospect than Turner at this point. They are pretty close defensively as well. Also, there is another thing to consider: The best defensive Catcher in the organization, closer to the majors, is John Hicks who is better defensively and with the stick than Turner. Rainis Silva is the best receiver in the organization by far, but still is 19 and trying to figure that hitting thing out in the low minors. If there is one who might get the node to the majors, in sprite of the light bat, it will be Silva and not Turner. I see Turner as 5th or 6th in the current depth chart (readiness not prospect) for the Twins.

Strikeouts or lack of. Same reason Blackburn was known as Blac_burn

59 & 61 too

Of course, Sporting News left out zero East Coast Bias at it's best http://cdn.sportsmemorabilia.com/sports-product-image/t1068976-400.jpg (And Brett over Di Maggio... please...)

Talking about Polanco as a utility player, is like talking about Buxton as a 4th outfielder. Nuts. The kid has a premier hit tool. People forget that he played in the GCL as a 16 year old and that he just turned 22. He does have Carlos Correa - type potential (less power, more speed, pretty much same defense) and can bee a perennial .800-.850 OPS SS hitter. I just do not get the hate. If he was in another organization he was going to be in the majors for good last season...

And he was pretty correct in "hating" the Twins' system 5 years ago or so...

Sure. Steve Balboni had some great "Production" (according to the metrics you are using for Walker) in the minors (and a few seasons in the majors) as well. Matter of fact one might argue that Balboni was a better minor league player that Walker, because he had a .301/.399/.553 34 HR, 122 RBI season in Nashville in 1980, numbers that Walker can only dream of. Pretty similar gloves as well. So that is Walker's ceiling right now. Based on his "Production".

Division II play has started as well. One of my quasi-local guys who I think might be of interest to the Twins is Brandon Miller of Millersville (one of the Div II State U's in PA - click the stats tab if interested.) Not a top 2 round pick likely, but he fits the Twins profile well: Barely walks anyone, gets a ton of ground balls, has great mechanics and an easy delivery that gets him deep into games; he had 6 CGs out of 13 starts last season. Not a fireballer by any means. but this kid really has it. At this point he is getting close to walking a batter a game and striking out one an inning. Bit of press coverage in the area as well. As fast as High Schoolers go, there is a kid named Nolan Jones who kinda reminds of a poor man's Sano, because he is playing SS at about 6-4, 210 or so. Left hand hitter, power potential. Depends on helium, he might go out on the first 2 rounds. This guy has first base written all over him and might be an interesting pick for the Twins, since LH power is lacking a bit. There are a couple other local kids who might be of interest, but they are dual sport types, and here football is the king...

The thing with Tonkin is that he got plenty of chances to prove that he belonged to the majors (60 games, 53.7 IP) and at this point he is behind the other 2 RHRPs with FBs > 94 mph in 2015 who may be on the bubble for a mop up role, Pressly and Graham (Jepsen's FB averaged up there as well, but he is a lock and does not belong in the conversation.) Not to mention the likes of Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, Reed, and even dark horses like Landa and Kintzler. Add Jepsen and Fien and Tonkin is probably 9th-11th in the RHRP depth chart for the Twins. Unless something gets to him and he becomes different pitcher than in the last 3 seasons or unless Ryan for some weird reason would rather keep him than take a better pitcher, frankly, I cannot see how he can make this team.

Here is another write up, and you cannot make that headline up: Former Twins outfielder charged with battery (Really? I thought that he was plug in...)

Sounds like he has some really serious issues and I hope that he gets help soon...

I think that the Twins' pitchers are probably cringing at the prospects of a Quentin-Santana-Sano (L to R) OF Still too early to tell, I just think that the Twins will bring more bodies in Spring Training at this point. And I think that it is hard to see CF in a vacuum away from the rest of the OF. Ryan is notorious of bring in players he liked when they played against the Twins and were successful. Quentin is an example. I look at the FA roster out there and David Murphy being there just scares me, for example. My best case scenario for the Twins' CF: a. Buxton proves that he can hit breaking stuff and get it in merit, if not b. Benson has the Spring of his life and wins the job, if not c. Rosario would be it. I would not consider Santana out there, sue me. He has neither the stick or the glove to deserve a starting position...