Karbo
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Karbo reacted to Greggory Masterson for a blog entry, Why Every Single Twins Hitter Is Actually Just Another Miguel Sano
We've all been there before, battling against a Pollyanna Twins fan who just doesn't get it! The guy is a bum! As they obstinately prattle on citing reason or having watched an MLB game before, the rage grows inside of you until you remember your trump card: He's just another Miguel Sano.
For your reference, I've compiled a list of 2023 Twins hitters and why they're just another Miguel Sano. If you ever meet someone who just won't listen to a baseball genius like yourself, you'll always have this argument.
Christian Vazquez: Overpaid albatross of a contract the Twins will never win paying him 10 million a year! Just another Miguel Sano!
Carlos Correa: OVERPAID! Rod in his leg! Big arm but nothing else! Just another Miguel Sano!
Byron Buxton: Always hurt! Strikes out too much! I thought I was promised him and Sano were going to lead this team to multiple World Series whatever happened to that! Just another Miguel Sano!
Max Kepler: Had a pop-up year in 2019 and has done NOTHING since! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jorge Polanco: Another bust who only made one All Star team! I was promised 12 more! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jordan Luplow: Was on waivers just like Sano should have been! Just another Miguel Sano!
Ryan Jeffers: Big lumbering oaf who strikes out too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Michael A. Taylor: Runs into one once in a while but everything else is a strikeout! Just another Miguel Sano!
Matt Wallner: Big arm one-trick-pony who strikes out looking too much! Just another Miguel Sano!
Willi Castro: Swings at everything! No plate discipline! Just another Miguel Sano!
Edouard Julien: A butcher in the field and takes too many strikes! Goes up looking to walk! Just another Miguel Sano!
Jose Miranda: Bad third baseman who swings at everything! Just another Miguel Sano!
Trevor Larnach: Too many strikeouts! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Garlick: Supposed to hit righties but doesn't! Just another Miguel Sano!
Donovan Solano: A butcher at third base! Just another Miguel Sano!
Gilberto Celestino: Saw him a couple years ago but not sure where he is now! Just another Miguel Sano!
Kyle Farmer: Actually no I like him he works really hard he plays the game the right way and isn't afraid to get dirty I'd let him date my daughter.
Nick Gordon: Bust who used to be a shortstop! Just another Miguel Sano!
Andrew Stevenson: Killed the ball in the minors but can't hit MLB pitching! Just another Miguel Sano!
Alex Kirilloff: Made an error at first base! Always injured! Never lived up to the hype! Just another Miguel Sano!
Royce, Lewis,: Third baseman who's always hurt! Gets away with it because he's overhyped! Just another Miguel Sano!
Joey Gallo: *enters cardiac arrest*
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Karbo reacted to arby58 for a blog entry, Twins Starting Pitching Stats That Will Never be Surpassed
Awhile back, I was working on a post (still working on it) to identify the greatest season by a Twins starting pitcher. I still haven't entirely decided on that one, but after going through the starting pitching stats for every year since the Washington Senators became the Minnesota Twins (in other words, since 1961) there were a couple of fascinating finds - stats that I doubt will ever be surpassed.
Combined Wins and Losses in a Season
The Twins record for most wins in a season was Jim Kaat's 25 in 1965. Back then, there was only one Cy Young for all of MLB, and Sandy Koufax was the unanimous winner after compiling a phenomenal set of stats: 26-8 record, 2.04 ERA, 160 ERA+, 9 shutouts, and 382 strikeouts in 335.2 innings pitched. Wow. Kaat also set another mark that I doubt will be surpassed, particularly in today's baseball: along with the 25 wins, he also accumulated 13 losses, and those 38 combined results should stand the test of time. It's notable that close behind was Bert Blyleven, with 37, and Jim Perry with 36.
Innings Pitched and Shutouts in a Season
These records are also safe, given the specialized nature of pitching these days. For innings pitched, these days 200 is considered a full season - but the Twins have had three pitchers surpass 300 innings - Bert Blyleven had 325 in the 1973 season, Jim Kaat had 304.2 in 1966, and Dave Goltz had 303 in 1977. Nowadays, pitchers get huzzahs for just a handful of complete games, let alone shutouts, but in that 1973 season, Blyleven had 9 shutouts, far and away the best ever for a Twins pitcher.
Workhorse Pitcher Season for the Ages
Bert's 1973 season was phenomenal in many respects. On a 81-81 team, he went 20-17, but the other stats are eye openers (including innings pitched and shutouts, already mentioned). His 2.52 season ERA was third best ever among Twins starting pitchers (and those who knew that Camilo Pascual is first with 2.46 take a bow. Yes, Jim Kaat was 2.06 in 1972, but he only started 15 games so that doesn't count - same with strike or pandemic-shortened seasons). Speaking of complete games, Bert also had 25 that year, which is also far and away the best by a Twins pitcher. His 258 strikeouts are also the second most, trailing only Johan Santana's 265 in 2004. On top of that, his ERA+ of 156 was fifth best all time for a Twins starting pitcher. Quite a year!
Best Two Combined Seasons
This one could someday be overcome (give it your best shot, Pablo) but I doubt it. It is also debatable, as Frank Viola and Jim Perry both won a Cy Young and also put together another strong year. Still, this one belongs to Johan Santana. Not only did he win the Cy Young in both 2004 and 2006, he also had the two best ERA+ years, at 182(!) in 2004 and 162 in 2006. As previously mentioned, he put up the biggest strikeout total in 2004 and had an ERA of 2.61 and 2.71 in 2004 and 2006 respectively. Besides that, 20-6 and 19-6 win-loss records weren't too shabby either.
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Karbo reacted to cjm0926 for a blog entry, 2024 Twins Offseason Guide
Wow, what a season. Although it didn’t end the way Twins Territory wanted it to, it was undoubtedly a success. As recent as the second half, this team was flirting with a .500 record, and at multiple times dipped below it. If in March I were to tell you that Byron Buxton AND Carlos Correa were below average hitters for the regular season, you would have thought it was a trainwreck. But with the emergence of players such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and even Spring Training non-roster invitee Willi Castro, it made it an enjoyable season of baseball to watch for fans. That does not even mention Ryan Jeffers breaking out, and the second half Max Kepler had, when it seemed his days of baseball in Minneapolis were over. The streak was finally broken, and now we won’t have to grimace every time somebody mentions a once-active 0-18 playoff streak dating back to 2004 (before I was even born). No matter what anyone says, it was a successful season of Twins Baseball in 2023, and I will leave it at that. With that being said, now we look forward to Twins baseball in 2024, and I decided to create a guide to help navigate the offseason. I have compiled dates, roster information, and hopefully everything you will need to get a better idea of what this offseason will bring. I hope you enjoy!
Free Agents
Sonny Gray
Kenta Maeda
Emilio Pagan
Donovan Solano
Tyler Mahle
Michael A Taylor
Joey Gallo
Dallas Keuchel
40 Man Roster (Doesn’t account for any transactions that will inevitably happen, 38 spots full)
Pitchers (21 spots)
Jorge Alcala
Jordan Balazovic
Matt Canterino
Jose De Leon
Jhoan Duran
Kody Funderburk
Brent Headrick
Ronny Henriquez
Griffin Jax
Pablo Lopez
Jovani Moran
Bailey Ober
Oliver Ortega
Chris Paddack
Joe Ryan
Cole Sands
Brock Stewart
Caleb Thielbar
Louie Varland
Josh Winder
Simeon Woods-Richardson
Hitters
Ryan Jeffers
Christian Vazquez
Carlos Correa
Kyle Farmer
Edouard Julien
Royce Lewis
Jose Miranda
Jorge Polanco
Willi Castro
Nick Gordon
Max Kepler
Alex Kirilloff
Trevor Larnach
Jordan Luplow
Andrew Stevenson
Matt Wallner
Byron Buxton
Timeline (*Explained Below)
Oct 27-Nov 4: World Series*
5 Days After Conclusion of World Series: League Wide Free Agency Begins* (Player/Team Options Due)* (Qualifying Offer also due)*
Nov 7-9: GM Meetings*
Nov 15: Rule 5 Protection Deadline*, Qualifying Offer Decision Deadline*
Nov 17: Non-Tender Deadline*
Dec 3-6: Winter Meetings*
Dec 5: MLB Draft Lottery*
Dec 6: Rule 5 Draft*
January 2024: BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement*
Jan 12: Arbitration Agreement Deadline*
Jan 29-Feb 16: Arbitration Hearings*
Feb 14: Pitchers and Catchers Report
Feb 23: Spring Training Game vs. Gophers
Feb 24: First Real Spring Training Game vs. Pirates
Mar 28: Opening Day @Kansas City Royals
World Series - The end of the World Series officially signifies the long offseason starting. The 2024 World Series Game 1 is scheduled for October 27, whereas Game 7 is scheduled for November 4.
Free Agency - Free Agency technically begins the day after the World Series, however, that just is when only the team they are departing from can contact their own free agents. League-wide free agency starts five days after the final game of the World Series, which could be as soon as November 5, or as late as November 9. Team and Player Options are due before league wide free agency starts.
Qualifying Offers - Qualifying Offers must be made within the 5 day window after the World Series ends. This year the qualifying offer is slated to be just over $20 Million. The only one of the 8 departing free agents from the Twins who will likely receive a QO will be Sonny Gray, and he will most likely decline by the November 15 deadline at 3:00 PM CT. It seems that Sonny Gray will sign elsewhere, which will gain the Twins a draft pick. If Sonny signs elsewhere for $50+ Million, the Twins receive a 2024 draft pick right before Competitive Balance Round A (Right after 1st round,) If less than $50 Million, it would be right after Competitive Balance Round B, which is after the 2nd round.
GM Meetings - Typically not much happens here. Just a meeting to explore possible offseason scenarios for General Managers and set framework up for the winter.
Rule 5 Protection - Teams must protect players who signed at age 18 or younger within 5 seasons and players who signed at age 19 or older within 4 seasons. Some Twins prospects who fit that bill and will at least be considered to be added are Jair Camargo, Yunior Severino, Chris Williams, Austin Martin, Dashawn Keirsey, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, Blayne Enlow, and maybe a few more. Players who are not protected can be chosen by other organizations during the Rule 5 Draft on December 6 for a $100k fee. Players selected must be kept on MLB active roster for the whole season or the MLB IL when it opens up during spring training. Otherwise, if they are DFA’d and clear waivers they must be offered back to their original team for $50k.
Non Tender Deadline/Arbitration - Players with between 3 and 6 years of MLB service time qualify for arbitration. It is a system for players to present themselves and try to be compensated for what they believe to be fair for their play. If a team doesn’t believe that a player is worth their projected arbitration amount, they can choose not to offer them a contract, or “non-tender” them. Said player then becomes a free agent and available to sign with any team after the November 17 deadline. If the team does decide to offer the player a contract before the deadline, they agree to go through a process called arbitration. The teams and the player are free to negotiate a contract all the way until the January 12 deadline. If no agreement is reached, they have to go through the MLB to an Arbitrator. Both sides submit their desired pay figures and the arbitrator uses previous play and other information to decide which figure is more fair. The player is then paid that figure for the year and no more negotiation is had. This can hurt the relationship between the player and the organization, see Corbin Burnes and the Brewers in 2023.
Arbitration Eligible Twins (Expected $ in parentheses)
Caleb Thielbar ($3M)
Kyle Farmer ($6.6M)
Jordan Luplow ($1.6M)
Willi Castro ($3.2M)
Jorge Alcala ($1M)
Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M)
Jose De Leon ($740K)
Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M)
Nick Gordon ($1M)
Non Tender Candidates - Farmer, Luplow, Alcala, De Leon
Winter Meetings - Multiple representatives from each team/organization gather for 4 days of meetings, which is happening this year in Nashville, Tennessee. Here is moreso where trades and signings are discussed between players, teams, and agents. Just as recent as last year, the Winter Meetings have had breaking news when Aaron Judge signed his 9 year, $360 Million megadeal to stay with the Yankees. If you are hoping for breaking MLB news during this offseason, this is the week to expect it to come from.=
BBWAA Hall of Fame Announcement - Typically this is not a huge deal for Twins fans. Recently Jim Kaat and Tony Oliva were inducted to the MLB Hall of Fame, but they were through a different committee. This year is different, Minnesota Twins great Joe Mauer is going to be on the ballot for the first time. Although he may not make it in on the first try, this has been a day Minnesotans have been waiting for for a long time. Other former Twins on the ballot include Torii Hunter, and more infamously Bartolo Colon.
MLB Draft Lottery - In 2023, the Twins infamously jumped up the draft board to pick #5 during the lottery and in July selected Walker Jenkins. This year will not be quite as exciting, only teams who missed the playoffs qualify for the lottery. With the playoff run they had, the Twins will be selecting around pick #25 during the MLB Draft in July.
If you made it all the way through, thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed and at least learned something. To compilate all of this data took quite a while so any feedback would be appreciated. This was the first article I’ve written in a while so it is very possible I was a bit rusty. If you have any questions leave a comment and I will try my best to clarify/answer. Happy offseason and GO TWINS!!!
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Karbo reacted to ashbury for a blog entry, Top Ten wild card moments
So much was packed into two games! A day later, I've put together a Top Ten list of moments, with no particular metric except my own sense of drama in the moment. Ranking is influenced by impact on the game's outcome, but there is an "Oh No He Didn't!" factor that counts for a lot. You will argue with some choices I am sure - I would probably have ranked them slightly differently yesterday and might change my mind tomorrow.
Game 1 Inning 4: Carlos Correa bails out Polanco, throws out Bichette at home Game 2 Inning 5: Carlos Correa pickoff of Guerrero at second Game 1 Inning 1: Royce Lewis HR #1 Game 1 Inning 3: Royce Lewis HR #2 Game 1 Inning 6: Michael A Taylor at wall for catch of flyball by Chapman Game 2 Inning 8: Griffin Jax unassisted putout like a blocking fullback on Biggio Game 1 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran taking throw to put out Springer and end 18 game losing streak Game 2 Inning 6: Caleb Theilbar 643 DP on Chapman after close foul ball Game 2 Inning 4: Carlos Correa RBI single for first run against Kikuchi Game 2 Inning 9: Jhoan Duran third out swinging strikeout of Varsho for the sweep Here also are my ten honorable mentions, ranked merely in sequential order of when they happened.
Game 1 Inning 2 Michael A Taylor coming in hard for the catch against Chapman
Game 1 Inning 4 Max Kepler with difficult grab of Guerrero smash
Game 1 Inning 5 Pablo Lopez strikes out Belt swinging with Chapman on third
Game 1 Inning 8 Griffin Jax two big strikeouts after Guerrero leadoff double
Game 1 Inning 8 Donovan Solano with unassisted putout of Kirk to end inning
Game 2 Inning 1 Sonny Gray strikes out Biggio to strand two baserunners
Game 2 Inning 4 Max Kepler single against Kikuchi in relief of Berrios
Game 2 Inning 8 Michael A Taylor with grab on tricky fly by Guerrero
Game 2 Inning 8 Carlos Correa hit on hand by pitch but stays in game
Game 2 Inning 9 Jhoan Duran finger cut, 2 bad pitches, then he locks in
Some may say this was the Royce Lewis Series, and obviously Game 1 is his to own forever, but Carlos Correa gets my series MVP vote, with that key RBI in Game 2 tipping the scales.
Notice how frequently Guerrero figured into the proceedings. Chapman too. We dodged some bullets, didn't we.
I also can't emphasize enough just how big the moment was when Kepler singled against Kikuchi. They bring in the lefty, Kepler had his work cut out for him, and he finds a way. None of the balls put in play that inning were things of beauty really, but conversely the moment was not too big for our hitters. No moment was more key than Max's, and yet he can't even crack the Top Ten for me. Wow, what a series!
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Karbo reacted to Boswell for a blog entry, Pickoff Play as Turning Point
1987 - Laudner to Gaetti nabs Darrell Evans at third base. Twins were ahead 4-3 in bottom of the 6th, 1 out, runners on 2nd and 3rd. Our team goes on to clinch the series and bring a title back to a raucous party at the Metrodome.
Read the New York Times article about it here.
2023 - Gray to Correa leaves Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. waving for air at second base. Twins were ahead 2-0, 2 outs in the top of the 5th, runners on 2nd and 3rd. Now able to run off the field with their lead intact. 12 outs later, the celebration is underway at Target Field!
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Karbo reacted to Boswell for a blog entry, 2 HR’s in first 2 postseason AB’s
1987 - Gary Gaetti stepped up and smashed two homers to get us going against the favored AL East Detroit Tigers. Lays claim to ALCS MVP.
2023 - Royce Lewis drives in all three Twins RBI with his pair of roundtrippers vs. the (slightly) favored AL East Toronto Blue Jays. Fans choice for MVP, if awarded.
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Karbo reacted to troyjuhn for a blog entry, Target Field being loud might actually be a factor these playoffs.
Do you remember nearly 10 years ago the "Cueto, Cuetoooo" incident in the WC game between Cincinatti and Pittsburgh. Here it is to remind you.
Why is this so memorable? It's because fans were so into this game (Pirates first playoff game in 30 years) that they mentally broke a pitcher that was seen as one of the best in the NL at that time. It's one of the best crowds to ever attend a baseball game that I've ever seen. You could tell how much Pittsburgh fans had been waiting for this moment to come, and even though they couldn't get past St. Louis that year, this was always the defining moment of the 2013 playoffs (besides the Victorino grand slam). I'm not asking Twins fans to be like this. Heck, I don't think this kind of crowd trolling will ever be replicated in the modern game again. But some people just can't seem to grasp how fans can have a factor in playoff games. Not the biggest factor, but it's quite literally the bare minimum. I don't care personally if the Twins are losing 6-2, 8-0, 11-4, anything. Analytics shouldn't factor into how you cheer for this team in the playoffs. Who gives a crap about "win probability" when a team legit came back from 9 runs down just a couple of days ago. Nothing will make me more excited from my college dorm room when Pablo Lopez gets a massive strikeout in the sixth inning with the bases loaded.
And this is verbatim what I tweeted an hour ago as of this post but: If I ever attend a playoff game at Target field, I will be loud. No matter what. I attended game 2 of the 2019 ALDS and that game was pretty hopeless. I still cared no matter what. Still cheered every strike out, every base runner. Games never over until it’s over. You should probably be loud too. And It's encouraged. Be loud and proud. Show why you bought tickets.
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Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Fire Tingler and the Trainer IMMEDIATELY
I hope the injury to Royce Lewis is not as bad as I fear. That was NOT "Hamstring tightness".
ANYOEN/EVERYONE watching this game saw it, and I am guessing we all let out a simultaneous "OH F---"!!!!!! How could they not see it?
Was anyone else as enraged as I was when listening to Tingler explain the injury? I do not have it recorded so I will be paraphrasing, but when asked about if the injury running down to first on the previous at bat had anything to do with it, he says he did not see any issues with Royce running down to first, and that he just slowed up. NO Jayce he did not "just slow up" he CLEARLY did something. Jayce then said that he didn't see anything and that Royce did not come to him to share any potential injury.. How can a (fill in manager) and a head trainer watch a guy as vital to the steam as Royce Lewis is pull up OBVIOUSLY lame running to first. and you not GO TO HIM?!?!?!?!!!!!!
ROyce needed to be pulled immediately!!! You just saw a guy run the bases and pull up lame, a player who is the key to your team, a player that has a history of SIGNIFICANT knee injuries, he CLEARLY pulls up lame and limping and you do nothing??? You were in a 7-0 ballgame leading a division by 7 games with 10 games to go. Lewis should have been pulled IMMEDIATELY!!!
Now the end result may not be much different, maybe the damage was already done there, but he should never have been left in the game after that.
Royce's reaction going into the dugout was not a reaction of someone who has a tight hamstring, that was a reaction of a young player who has come back from 2 SIGNIFICANT injuries, missing SIGNIFICANT time, knowing he just had another SIGNIFICANT injury and is about to lose even more SIGNIFICANT time to rehab yet another injury. That was the reaction of a player who knows he is not playing another competitive game again this year.
I PRAY I am wrong, but the results here, but either way, if it is a 1 day injury or a 1 year injury, what is most frustrating is the incompetent handling of this by both the fill in manager and the head trainer, and both should be immediately terminated for incompetence.
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Karbo reacted to Brandon for a blog entry, Are We Getting Enough Talent From our Drafts during Falvey's Tenure?
Andy MacPhail, a former Twins GM who helped construct the 87 and 91 World Series Teams once said his goal was to promote 2-3 players per season up to the majors to fill roles on the team. A good farm system can do that. So, with that in mind let’s review the previous drafts in the Falvey era, not to grade them but to see how Falvey. Levine and company are doing in developing 2-3 starters/ regulars (or really players who can stay on the roster all year including bench and relievers) a year. Below the starters I will include several who at least played a role of some kind and list if anyone else still has a chance to make it to the show. Let me know if I forget someone. I am not the draft hound as others here.
2017: was their first draft year and the players who are starters include:
3B Royce Lewis OF/DH Brent Rooker SP Bailey Ober And that is pretty much it. There are others who may still make it up for a role including Blaine Enlow, Mark Contreras, Calvin Faucher is with the Rays, and maybe Andrew Bechtold
This draft is a success as Ober and Lewis are a big part of the team now and moving forward.
2018: has many potential role players or players who can carve out niches but there are some who start for the Twins and others who contribute.
C Ryan Jeffers OF Trevor Larnarch RP Cole Sands RP Josh Winder RP Kody Funderburk The jury is still out on Larnarch. Cole Sands and Josh Winder are likely to be 7th and 8th man on relief pitching with the potential to get better. Kody Funderburk is just getting started but is off to a nice start and looks promising. In terms of others who may make it up at some point include DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Chris Williams, Austin Schulfer
This draft needs a little more time to be judged. Jeffers is a starter and Larnarch should be. If Kody Funderburk becomes a solid reliever and we get some innings 20-50 from Winder and Sands in the pen in each of the next 2 seasons I would rate this draft as solid.
2019: we had the misfortune of drafting Keoni Cavaco in the first round which set the draft performance back quite a bit. But it looks like we still did well in this draft.
Matt Wallner (also drafted by the Twins in 32nd round in 2016) Spencer Steer Eduouard Julien Louie Varland Inn addition to these guys Casey Legumina who we trade to the Reds for Farmer, Sawyer Gibson-Long who we traded to Detroit for Fulmer just made his major league debut and Brent Headrick pitched over 20 innings up here this season and is on the shuttle with Josh Winder and Cole Sands as the 7th and 8th relievers Alex Isola is a solid hitting C prospect in AA and Matt Canterino is a top pitching prospect who is injured.
I gotta say this was a great draft for them.
2020: was a lost season and while we only drafted 5 players, we do have 3 prospects from this draft.
Alerick Soularie in AA, Kala’I Rosario in A+, and Marco Raya.
I would rate this draft a success if one player makes it up and is a starter. The best bet is Raya if he can stay healthy.
2021: We traded our first 4 picks from the 2021 draft to be more competitive last year. Petty for Sonny Gray, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar were included in the trade for Mahle, and Cade Povich was included in the trade for Lopez from Baltimore.
Festa is in AAA and is getting close to an opportunity at some point next season. Christina Strand is now up with Cincinnati, Povich was in AA with a high strikeout rate. Jaylin Nolin is a top prospect and Noah Miller is already a major league ready defensive specialist if he can learn to hit at all so he can at least be a solid bench player.
I would say there are lots of depth players in this draft outside of Encarnacion-Strand if we get a few of them to contribute this can be a good draft.
2022: is too early to grade as is 2023 but there are many prospects from the 2022 draft who did well in their first full minor league season including Brooks Lee who made it to AAA and Tanner Schobel in AA. And the Twins were voted as having one of the top three drafts in terms of talent acquired in the draft in 2023.
Overall, the Twins have consistently done a good job of developing players for the major leagues under Falvey. I think the surprise is that they have not drafted and developed very much pitching, but have drafted many good hitters, who they developed for the lineup or trade. I do see many promising starting pitchers down in A and A+ ball so it will be fun to see how that translates as they pitch at more advanced levels next year and so on. I would rate the 2017 draft, 2019 draft, with 2022 and 2023 drafts looking to join them as the most successful and the 2018 draft is on the cusp. 2020 is an incomplete as COVID torpedoed the season. The success of the 2021 draft will be determined by players no longer in the organization. Do you feel like the Twins in the Falvey era are succeeding in drafting and developing players to contribute at the major leagues?
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Karbo reacted to Obie for a blog entry, Royce Lewis: ROY?
Why not hype Royce Lewis as AL rookie of the year? Rookies with a full year (or nearly so) in the league have a certain advantage, but none of the familiar names have numbers approaching Royce. Royce is number one in average, slugging, HR/AB, RBI/AB, and OPS.
Rankings by OPS w 200 minimum AB:
Royce Lewis .302/.365/.545 202 AB 14 HR 50 RBI and .910 OPS
Tristan Casas (Bos) .263/.367/.490 429 AB 24 HR 65 RBI and .857 OPS
Zach Gelof (Oak) .268/.335/.516 213 AB 11 HR 25 RBI and .851 OPS
Yanier Diaz (Hou) .285/.309/.536 330 AB 21 HR 56 RBI and .845 OPS
Edouard Julian (Min) .266/.379/.454 293 AB 13 HR 27 RBI and .833 OPS
Gunnar Henderson (Bal) .257/.327/.496 502 AB 26 HR 76 RBI and .823 OPS
Josh Jung (Tex) .274/.323/.489 427 AB 22 HR 67 RBI and .812 OPS
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Karbo reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Lewis Up to Replace Luplow (or Gallo)? Makes Sense for 2023 and Really Makes Sense For 2024
We need a CF for 2024 and a better RH hitting OF for 2023. I think our highest and best hope in 2024 should be that Buxton plays 80ish games in the OF next year and another 50 at DH. That means we will need another player to be a half to 2/3 time starting CF. I frankly think we have that guy in Max Kepler which would really open things up for OFs because it's easier to find corner OFs that a decent CF. Unfortunately, Kepler apparently doesn't want to play CF on any sort of regular basis. Maybe we can find way to tie playing CF to exercising his option and that can be the short term solution.
Assuming Max isn't the answer, and frankly thinking more long term, we will need a CF in 2024. We also need to replace Luplow as the RH hitting OF in 2023 as it is becoming more clear why the Blue Jays cut him, and why TB, Cle, and AZ cut him before that - he can't hit. For 2024, Taylor has actually been a decent short term guy but he's 32 and really is a 4th or 5th OF on a good team. I don't see Lewis going back out there after getting hurt last year. We can rail about that all we want but it ain't happening so let's looks at something closer to a possible reality. There's really 3 choices for 2024 other than a free agent, Taylor again, Castro or Gordon as a full/part time CF, or go to Martin or Keirsey now at AAA.
The last prospect excites me IF we could get Martin or Keirsey some ABs this year to see where they're at versus MLB pitching. The problem is that we can't unless w make a roster change. We can only add 2 guys on 9/1 and we need space for at least 3 guys coming back from injury - Castro, Buxton, and Kirilloff. It will take dropping a current MLB player to get them on the roster (Gallo? Luplow?) and that's without adding a pitcher. There just isn't any easy way to add another AAA player unless there's an injury or we are willing to drop two of Gallo, Luplow, Farmer, or Solano.
My solution? Bring up Martin before 9/1 to replace Gallo or Luplow. I really don't care which although I don't see the Twins dropping Gallo until they absolutely have to. I would see if Luplow is willing to stay with the team if/when he clears waivers. If he is, he's the one. If he's not, well, he's still the one. Luplow is falling off the table at the plate and looking a whole lot more like even less than his career .214/.315/.429 (.744) career slash line. In his last 7 games he's got 18 ABs and is hitting .111/.200/.333. All of this when he almost exclusively plays against LH pitching. He's 30 on 9/26. He's not on next year's team and not a future player on any sort of contending team.
I would bring up Martin now. Play Martin now in CF against LH pitching and, if we can play the back half of September without pressure, he's plays every day to rest guys. Sets us up for 2024 and beyond without hurting us much now. I have to think Martin can hit some, I know he can run some, and I'd wager that he can at least come close to meeting or exceeding the Luplow threshold. We have a unique opportunity now to test/expose/develop young talent at the MLB level while still winning the division. Let's take that opportunity now. By the way,. all of this also applies to putting Varland and Funderburk in the bullpen TODAY but that's a topic for another thread. . .
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Karbo reacted to terrydactyls for a blog entry, Understatement of the Year
Today on Power Alley (MLB Radio), the announcers were discussing the Twins-Brewers game tonight (Wed, Aug 23). Corbin Burnes is the Milwaukee pitcher and he has been striking out batters at a very high rate One announcer said that it would be an interesting matchup because:
"The Twins have been a little prone to striking out lately."
A little prone? Lately?
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Karbo reacted to arby58 for a blog entry, Greatest Twins Individual Offensive Season Ever?
The Twins arrived in Minnesota in 1960, and I have been a close follower since about 1967. As a kid, I was a huge Harmon Killebrew fan and attended many games where his home runs were the highlight of the day. I also got to see one of the great on-base hitting machines of that era, Rod Carew. They were far different players, but they produced, in my opinion, the two greatest offensive seasons in Twins history, and both were named American League MVP for them - Killebrew in 1969, and Carew in 1977.
What is interesting about those two seasons is how different they were, in terms of the statistics where they excelled - and yet how close they came in a statistic that I believe captures the value of both getting on base and doing it in an impactful way - OPS. For comparison purposes, those grand seasons result in what is, statistically speaking, pretty much a dead heat: Carew's OPS was 1.019, and Killebrew's was 1.011.
So, who had the better season? Carew put up an other-worldly batting average - .388. He also led the league - by a mile - in runs scored, with 128. Unlike most years, he also drove in 100 runs and hit 14 home runs. His .570 slugging percentage was, by far the best of his career. He also had an incredible OPS+ of 178.
The MVP balloting was interesting: Carew was first on only 12 of 28 ballots. Second was Al Cowens of KC, who had an OPS of .885 and scored 30 less runs while hitting .312 with 23 HR and 112 RBI. He got 4 first place votes - how that is even possible must relate to the fact that the Royals won 102 games, the most in the AL that year. The smattering of other first place votes suggests to me that the voters still favored 'headline stats' like HR and RBI, even in the face of clearly superior overall results.
As for Killebrew, he never hit for average like Carew. In fact, his highest batting average in a full season was .288. However, he did hit 573 home runs and drove in 1,584 RBI. It is notable that his lifetime OPS was .884, and his OPS+ 143. Carew's numbers were .822 and 131. That said, this isn't about career, it is about the year.
In 1969, Killebrew tied his career mark in HRs with 49 and set his mark with 140 RBIs. What set the season apart was the fact he also drew a league leading 145 walks. Even though his batting average was just .276, he had a .427 OBP. It wasn't Carew's .449, but it wasn't that far off.
Killebrew was a much more clear-cut winner for the AL MVP that year, with 16 first place votes, while the second place finisher, Boog Powell, had 6. It's notable that the 1969 Orioles won 109 games and their division, while the Twins won 97 and their division - and the Orioles dispatched the Twins in three straight before losing the World Series in 5 games to the Mets.
I have a hard time choosing between the two. Carew was a hit or two everyday, and that year his hits were more impactful than most years. Killebrew hit home runs and drove in runs at the highest level, and he also got on base a lot. That said, Carew still had a (slightly) higher OPS. I watched both seasons very closely. I think Carew's flirting with .400 - in a way that hasn't really been challenged since - gives him a slight nod here. That said, it is very slight.
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Karbo reacted to jorgenswest for a blog entry, Carlos Correa and a runner on first
Carlos Correa has 51 plate appearances with a runner on first(only) and less than 2 outs. In those 51 plate appearances he has 9 strikeouts, 6 walks, 1 HBP, 1 double, 1 home run and hit into 15 double plays. The most frequent outcome is a double play. That isn't surprising as he hits right handed, frequently makes solid contact and isn't very fast. Those factors aren't going to change.
It makes me wonder how often the Twins have tried to steal a base in those situations. I can't recall any. I think they need to view each of those grounded into doubles plays like a caught stealing. With Carlos up they need to be more aggressive stealing a base. Even a 70% success rate is probably preferable to staying on first with the likelihood of being the front end of a double play. Julien stole bases in the minors. They need to send him. They batted Correa first for a while. If they do that they need to put speed at the bottom and send them.
If anyone knows how to find it I would like to see how often they have tried to steal in this situation.
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Karbo reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Lewis Back Up to Replace Solano? Polanco to 1B?
Well, now what do we do with Solano spraining his knee? Hard to believe that's a day to day thing. By the way, "sprained knee" is often the diagnosis until the MRI shows a torn meniscus or ligament damage. So what do we do? God help us if the answer is play Joey Gallo every day.
I say we we cut Lewis' rehab stint in AAA short and get him back up. Lewis plays 3d, Polanco goes to 1B most days, with Gallo there only occasionally. I can already hear the chorus of "move Julien to 1B, he stinks at 2B". I hear that, but moving a guy who's never played 1B over there when he just got to the MLB level is playing with fire. Polanco is a veteran, he's played all over the IF, and he's seasoned enough to not let the transition effect his hitting. He's been around and a good bet to pick up the basics at 1B pretty quickly, He'll make mistakes but he'll make the routine plays most of the time and be in the right position most of the time. It's also a good audition for next year when his highest and best use may be as the super UTL guy who plays 5 days a week at a combination of 2-3 days at 2B and 1B against LH starting pitching while Julien DHs or he or Kirilloff sit, a day or two as the DH, and a day at 3B to spell Lewis. Hey, I think an IF of Correa, Lewis, Julien. Kirilloff, Polanco, and one of Castro, Famer, or Gordon, is exactly where we need to be at the beginning of the 2024 season. There aren't any IFs breaking down the door at AAA (Lee may get there in 2024, but so far in AAA he's 2-18), I say let's get there now.
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Karbo reacted to Brandon Peddycoart for a blog entry, Career Game for Yates, Martin First AAA Home Run
Saint Paul, Minnesota - A combination of offense and pitching helped lift the Saints past the Mud Hens 8-2 on Friday night. Dallas Keuchel, Caleb Thielbar, and Oliver Ortega all had strong performances. On the offensive side the Saints put on a show to all 8,540 fans in attendance with four home runs. St. Paul improved to 58-41 on the season.
In the third, with two outs, Nick Solak walked, Justyn-Henry Malloy singled, which allowed Solak to advance to third. On a wild pitch by Dallas Keuchel, Nick Solak scored due to a throwing error by Saints catcher Jair Camargo. Toledo took a 1-0 lead.
In the fourth, Camargo singled and Austin Martin hit his first home run of the season. Also, this was his first AAA home run. This gave the Saints a 2-1 lead.
In the fifth, Malloy hit a solo home run to center, which tied the game at two.
The breakthrough inning for the Saints would come in the sixth. Mark Contreras led off the inning with a solo home run. This gave the Saints a 3-2 lead. Later in the inning, Austin Martin singled, and Chris Williams walked. Ernie Yake hit his first AAA home run. This one went to right and gave the Saints a 6-2 lead.
In the eighth, Yake hit his second home run of the night. This was his first career game where he had multiple home runs.
The game started after a short weather delay, but that did not slow Keuchel down. He came out of the gate firing and would work six innings allowing two runs on six hits. He struck out eight. Keuchel would pick up the win, and this would be his first win as a Saint.
Thielbar continued his MLB Rehab Assignment on Friday night. He worked one inning while recording a strike out. Thielbar threw eight pitches, six were strikes. Finally, Ortega worked the final two innings. Ortega allowed one hit and struck out five.
Martin and Yates had exceptional nights at the plate. Martin went 3-for-4 with two RBI and two runs scored, along with a home run. Yates went 3-for-4 with a career high four RBI and two runs scored along with two home runs.
The Toledo Mud Hens and St. Paul Saints will meet in game five of a six-game series at CHS Field on Saturday night. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07p.m. Toledo is TBA while the Saints will send RHP Randy Dobnak (4-4, 4.19) to the mound. The game can be seen on the CW Network, MiLB.TV, and heard on KFAN Plus, 96.7 FM.
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Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, How do you solve the upcoming infield glut?
My apologies for the repetitive posts, but as I was finishing my recent post I realized just how challenged the Twins will be shortly. so many potential answers I am wondering what YOUR moves are?
Of course injuries and such always come nto play to resolve most issues, but.. sometime in teh near future the Twins will have a glut of players. Notice I didnt say a glut of All-Star calibur players, but a glut of players none the less.
OF: There is the usual backlog of Gallo, Kepler, Wallner, Taylor, Castro (he will be IF & OF), Larnach. That is 6 OF for 4 spots.
IF: Here is actually where it could get MORE interesting. with Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Farmer, Solano, Castro, and the pending returns of Polanco and Lewis and eventually possibly Gordon, but thatis much later. that is another 8 players for 5 maybe 6 spots
With DH being filled exclusively by Buxton who cannot play the field that gives little flexibility to mix AB;s. That means 14 players for about 10 spots.
Put on your GM hats, how do YOU solve this?
Mine as I mentioned in previous post.
3 way trade with Angels and Yankees.
Yankees get: Anthony Rendon from Angels to fill their 3B need. Trevor Larnach from the Twins. Twins need to move a LH OF. Yanks wont touch Gallo, and with Kepler heating up we will not move him, and Wallner is too valuable to give away for a smallish return. That leaves Larnach... who I love. and his LH bat plays in Yankee Stadium
Angels get Josh Donaldson (they can immediately DFA him and still be saving money based on Rednon's contract being moved, and Yanks would require the moving of Donaldson on any deal) a pitcher from teh Twins.. Not 100% sure who I'd move maybe Kuechle? Twins also send Kyle Farmer to the Angels to take over 3B for them.
Twins get Jordyn Adams (#25 prospect and super fast CF at AAA) from the Angels, and Luis Gil (#14 prospect from Yankees coming back from TJ and may be ready in September but would be a great bullpen arm going forward). Plus a PTBNL from each team based on if either team makes the playoffs.
This at least clear 2 spots and we have Adams for when rosters expand adn his blazing speed. Then DFA Gallo (If the Angels wont take him in this trade). and now you are down to 11 players for 10 spots which is quite manageable, and have CF protected for next year with Adams.
What are your moves?
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Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, How is this for a 3 way trade
This trade will help us on the periphery (did I spell/use that word correctly??) LOL.
Willi Castro has shown the importance of speed.
The Angels are now keeping Ohtani and will be buyers (and will need pitching)
The Yankees need an upgrade at 3B!!
What ties these three things together? Well a creative trade of course!!!
YANKEES GET: Anthony Rendon from the Angels
ANGELS GET: Josh Donaldson from the Yankees, Kyle Farmer and a starting pitcher. maybe Dallas Kuchle? Maeda pitching too well to be the one to go, but maybe if we get even better value than this trade proposal then include him.
Twins GET: Jordyn Adams from the Angels (Angels #25 prospect) and Luis Gil from the Yankees (Yanks #14 prospect). Plus a PTBNL from each team. If the Yankees reach the playoffs this year then we get Roderick Arias, if they dont, then we get some high risk high upside single A pitcher. and same with the Angels. we get a PTBNL based on if they make the playoffs.
WHY THIS WORKS...
FOR YANKEES: Rendon would a significant upgrade for the Yankees struggling offense, and lock in 3B for the next few years (assuming he would waive NT to go to Yankees). They really do not have much in the pipeline for the hot corner. Trey Sweeney is by default the best option in the minors, and that is nto saying much. The cost of this swap for this year for the Yankees is mitigated by being able to move off of Donaldson's deal.
FOR THE ANGELS: This is a combo improve now and increase odds of retaining Ohtani move. Who would you rather have on your roster? Rendon or Otani? by clearing Rendon's $38M over the next 3 years, that makes a $50M Ohtani deal VERY affordable. Kyle Farmer is a quality 3B replacement this year, This is an absolute no brainer for the Angels. and maybe we incldue Trevor Larnach if Angels include Jo Adell, this would give Angels another healthy OF with potential, and we get a RH outfielder. The Angles can just DFA Donaldson and still save money, and use Farmer as the repalcement 3B. But again this move is 99.99% focused on putting the Angels in position to retain Ohtani after this year. they can immediately after this deal give Ohtani a 10 year $500M contract... AND AFFORD IT
FOR THE TWINS: Assuming we stay with the base deal, the Twins will be giving up very lttle. If we move Kuechle, that has zero impact. If we give up a differnt starter (not sure who) then Kuechle COULD be a good replacement if his rehab is for real. Giving up Farmer would have little overall impact because we will have a glut of players coming back soon. Polanco, Gordon, Lewis. and Julien and Castro are going nowhere, so what do you do??? little impact going out, and while not a TON of impact coming back in, this is the "around the edges" move the Twins FO has been talking about. We get Adams with his electric speed. he can back up CF, or play primary CF down the stretch. this also gives us flexibility/protection for CF next year. would be a great pinch runner down the stretch and into the playoffs. Luis Gil, more than likely will not be back from TJ this year, If he can come back still this year, he could be a good bullpen arm that we need down the stretch, and into the future. This deal gives us some upgrades without touching anything of importance. Gies us upgrades, plus a couple younger, cheaper future pieces.
As I mentioned at the start, Castro has shown the impact of speed, if we get Adams, and DFA Gallo (or try and include him in the deal to the Angels for THEM to deal with) and have Adams in CF, Castro in LF/utility, and when Lewis gets back that is 3 players who are a threat to steal on any pitch.
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Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Is the Twins window slamming shut?
Luckily we play in the AL Central, but is the Twins window of opportunity to contend slamming shut?
What will this team look like next year? and no I am not looking to next year already!! hehe, I am looking at next year to help determine what moves should be done at the trade deadline THIS year.
our FA after this year...
Joey Gallo (should be released anyways, but no way he is back next year)
Max Kepler (see above)
Michael Taylor.. HE has been a great signing, maybe we resign if cheap, but as of now a FA
Kenta Maeda
Sonny Gray No chance he comes back.
Basically our entire starting OF and 40% of the rotation. Granted Ober, Ryan, and Lopez are a good 3 to build around.
SO who do we have "plug -n-play" for OF next year? cross fingers Buxton can play OF, Hope Wallner can show he is the real deal. Larnach hasn't been able to be consistent over long run, can Austin Martin get healthy and fulfill his promise? even if Emmanual Rodriguez can get things going in the minors he is still a bit off. Could we move AK to OF if we can upgrade 1b?? maybe but optimal.
My philosophy is SPEED SPEED SPEED!!! OS my move at the deadline this year is to go after young near MLB ready prospects. This brings me once again to Jordyn Adams. His bat is finally coming around over the last year and a half, albeit at a hitter friendly ballpark. But a .264 avg and an .817 OPS with 33 steals against just 3 CS. he is a Gold Glove Calibur CF who could replace Taylor as the insurance against Buxton, and if Buxton can play CF, then we slide Adams to LF... or would a move to LF help Buxton???? his RH bat helps balance our lineup.
You put Adams in at #9 and potentially Royce Lewis at leadoff, and you have 2 burners back to back. You can really start playing some games with those two in order. This works both this year and into the future, This year can have Adams/Castro LF Taylor/Adams CF, Wallner RF.
And Adams shouldnt cost TOO much... how about we send Kuechle and either Gallo or Kepler if they will take them.
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Karbo reacted to Devlin Clark for a blog entry, The worst trade in Twins history!
If you're like me, you find yourself scrolling baseball reference pages or Wikipedia to see what former Twins players are up to, post playing career. Maybe you're not like me, maybe you actually have a life. Well, I don't, but I do enjoy doing Wikipedia and bREF rabbit holes. Recently, I was talking with a friend on Twitter and he asked me what I thought the worst trade in Twins history was, the ones that came to mind immediately were more recent: Sam Dyson, Mitch Garver, Taylor Rogers, etc. But I decided to stick with the trades made since 2000. The reason for that is that is when the Twins really became relevant again, when we knew that contraction wasn't going to be moving our team. With that said, I scoured long and hard looking at almost every trade we've made since 2000 and although the Jamie Garcia trade is up there, I still think the trade I'm going to outline below is worse and I'll list my criteria.
As always, please let me know what you think, follow me on Twitter @Devlin_clark84 and without any further wait, let's get to it:
Before I tell you what the trade is, I want to lay out the parameters of how I came about this. First of all, ALL stats shown below are courtesy of baseball reference. I wanted to also show the production over a 5 year period as I felt that this gives us a great sample size and can exclude fluke or lucky seasons, one offs, etc. So here is the breakdown:
I will say that some of the post trade stats are incomplete and you'll see why as we progress.
The trade happened on November 6, 2009. We will be looking at the 2008,09 seasons for each player, the 2010 season, as well as the 2011,12 seasons to see a wide scope of production and to try and fairly explain why this is the worst trade in Twins history.
The Twins trade 24 year old Centerfielder Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for SS JJ Hardy.
Let's look at the 2008,09 seasons for both players so we can get a scope of who and why the trade was made.
(Stats shown below are for both seasons combined)
Gomez (age 22 and 23 seasons): 290 games, .248 AVG, 10HRs,87RBIs, 73 OPS+, 2.6 WAR.
Hardy(age 25 and 26 seasons): 261 Games, .260 AVG, 35HRs, 121RBIs, 98 OPS+, 5.3 WAR
Coming into the trade, based on nearly 300 games the last two seasons, the Twins were going to be the clear beneficiaries of the trade. Hardy not only had better numbers, but also played a premium up the middle position. The Twins were poised to win the trade. Let's look at how the 2010 season played out for both guys (avert your eyes, Twins fans):
Gomez(age 24 season in 2010): 97 Games, .247 AVG, 5 HRS, 24RBIs, 18SBs, slashed .298/.357/.655 which produced a WAR of 0.6.
Surely, Hardy would have a better season with the Twins than Gomez had with the Brewers? Well...
Hardy (age 27 season in 2010): 101 Games, .268 AVG, 6HRs 38RBIs, slashed .320/.394/.714 which produced a WAR of 1.3
Not as bad as Gomez, but still not great. Despite this, after the 2010 season, the Twins still looked like the obvious winners on this trade, it's when you look at not just the next two seasons, but what happened next that show this to be the worst trade in Twins history.
On December 9th, 2010 the Twins and Orioles pulled off a trade. The Twins sent SS JJ Hardy and UTIL Brendan Harris to the Orioles. We got $500,000 in return and two minor leaguers, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.
It's what happened next that show my point:
Gomez (2011-12 season with Milwaukee, ages 25,26 seasons): 231 Games, .248AVG, 27HRs, 75RBIs, 53SBs, 94 OPS+ which is a 4.5 WAR combined.
Hardy(2011-12 in his age 28,29 seasons):
287 Games, .252 AVG, 52 HRs, 148 RBIs, 96 OPS+, good for 7.5 WAR.
Hardy in the 3 seasons following the trade(2011,12 and 13) hit 30,22 and 25 HRs respectively.
Gomez became a first time all star in 2013 and again in 2014. He finished ninth in MVP voting in 2013 and sixteenth in 2014. He also won a Gold Glove in 2013.
Hardy won a Gold Glove in his second season in Baltimore in 2012 (also in '13), as well as the Silver Slugger and became an All Star in 2013.
So why is this the worst trade ever for the Twins? Let's examine what they got from a numbers standpoint:
Brett Jacobsen never made the majors. So since I am using MLB stats, he's a non factor in this trade. Jim Hoey in 2011 for the Twins:
26 Games, 5.47 ERA, 75 ERA+, 5.58 FIP, good for a whopping -0.6 WAR.
To summarize what the Twins gave up, received and then how the players did after the trade:
From the trade in 2010 to the end of the 2012 season the Twins got a WAR of 0.7 (1.3 from the Hardy 2010 year, and a -0.6 from Hoey in 2011.) Hoey never played again after 2011 in the majors.
The Brewers thrived and got 5.1 WAR between 2010-12 with Gomez and those weren't even his best years. (In 2013 he had a massive 7.6 WAR season and in 2014 had a 4.7 WAR season, all told, the five years after the trade through the end of 2014, Gomez produced a total of 17.4 WAR.)
The Orioles also won the trade with Hardy, getting a 7.4 WAR player the next two seasons, who played a premium position, was an All Star, Silver Slugger and GG winner. From 2010-14, Hardy was worth a massive 15.4 WAR(1.3 of those was 2010 with MIN)
So the Twins ended up getting $500,000, a player who never made the majors, and a pitcher who produced a -0.6 WAR, and gave up a SS who produced 14.1WAR the next four seasons and a CF who produced a 14.8 WAR and finished top-20 MVP twice.
When you factor everything in, the fact the Twins were going to be the winners based on the two previous years of Hardy and Gomez' careers, the fact that Hardy produced a higher WAR then Gomez in the first full season of the trade, and then the ineptitude of the Twins to give him up and get absolutely nothing back (literally a Negative war player) makes this, for me, the worst trade in Twins history.
As always, leave a comment below and let me know what your thoughts are! Can you think of a recent trade where we got less back and other players produced more in the last twenty three years?https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml
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Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, 2nd half moves
Does this FO, and Field Manager realize their jobs are the line? OR is this just a situation fo ..."thou doth protest too much"? The insistence that the cures to our offensive woes are currently on this team are baffling. Of course you need to publicly back your guys... to a certain extent. You cannot continue to back your guys as they are setting ALL TIME strike out records, and other standards of offensive ineptness of historical nature. So what do we do? and who is available?
I am not going to do a deep dive into who are sellers and what they are selling, instead just take a quick look on what our team can control.
the record setting ineptness on our offense means at a minimum the hitting coach goes. IF you have SOME guys striking out a tone and others not, then you can pin it on the players. when EVERYONE K's, then it is the general approach/hitting philosophy. And this ladies and gentlemen come from the hitting coach. Even changing hitting coach and our overall approach wont help too much, because our FO did the shopping and secured players who are all or nothing type hitters. which brings us to the players.
Gallo. Seems like a nice person, and can hit the HR. 15 HR at the break is ok in general, but for someone who has a .186 avg, K's at nearly a 50% clip and produces a total of 28 runs on those 15 HR it is no longer all that ok. It was an interesting try, and he single handedly helped us win multiple games right out the gate, but he needs to go. No questions asked.
Buxton, while I just trashed Gallo, one could say that Buxton's numbers are in the same ballpark across the board, with even lower OPS, yes but he is signed long term, and no one will take that contract, so as much as it hurts him clogging up DH, he stays.
Kepler, he also needs to be gone... like yesterday. His K rate is not nearly as bad as the first two above, it is in fact someone decent at about. 25%, We all thought the no shifts would be a boost for Kepler, but he is hitting just .207, and an unplayable .688 OPS. He plays a good defense and on a juggernaut of an offense, you could afford to keep him and bat him 7, but on this offense you cant. What makes it worse is that we are wasting the potential (and yes I hate that word too) of Matt Wallner as we continue to let Gallo (no future with this team even taking this year out of it) play over someone who COULD have a future, and couldn't perform worse.
And Here is the weird thing... on a team of epic offensive futility, I just laid out a case (with exception of Buxton, but sad he plugs up DH) of removing our top 3 HR hitters!!! haha That in and of itself shows how the "swing for the fences" style just doesn't work!!!
QUICK!!! who is #3 on the team in RBI? Yes, it is still Trevor Larnach!!!! and he is only 7 back of the team lead. Yes that should scare and depress you!!! as well as "FAlvine".
Ultimately the Twins need to find their "Elly De La Cruz". Of course players of that Calibur are generational, but what I am talking about a player with that attitude, A player that is going to say... "You know what... I am going to get on base and steal 2nd, 3rd, and Home in the span of 2 pitches". We need to go away from the sell out for the HR, and go to a RUN RUN RUN offensive philosophy. Give me a .260-.275 hitter who has the ability to steal bases on command... AND give the green light at all times, over a high K high HR guy any day.
Put pressure on the pitcher incentivize guys to swing for doubles and we score a ton more runs... and HR will come naturally.
Heck, if nothing else, just go ahead and give DaShawn Keirsey a call up from our system. At 26 and his secodn stint at AA he is hitting over .300 (career .258) with 50-60 SB type speed. Or trade fro Jordyn Adams from LA Angels,
Just do SOMETHING!!!
We cannot just stand pat and "hope" our guys will just magically turn it around. iF we do then not only is this season at risk, but we will go into 2024 with more questions than answers on the field, and have new openeings in FO and Head Coach to come in next year to start their own 2-3 year rebuild plan.
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Karbo reacted to Hans Birkeland for a blog entry, Knock-Getters and Boppers: The Eternal Struggle
Swinging hard in baseball was invented by Mel Gibson in 2001 for the movie “Signs.” From that point forward, hitters kept swinging harder while in many cases adding steroids to the mix, resulting in more power across the league. Guys who were teetering on the brink of being labeled “Quad-A Guys,” suddenly realized if they could add 20 home run power to their repertoire, they could cover up all their other glaring flaws. In 2019, a juiced ball turbocharged this trend and not coincidentally that year’s Twins team set the all-time team home run record, featuring big contributions from previously unexciting players like CJ Cron, Max Kepler, Jonathan Schoop and Mitch Garver. After a 101 win season and the surprising addition of Josh Donaldson, the future seemed bright for the Twins lineup. Instead, the team has taken steps backward and now looks as dysfunctional as ever offensively, despite the track record of their hitters being quite good on paper. What happened?
To start, the Twins aren’t the only team with a lot of names in their lineup and not a lot of runs on the board. Many teams who employ a multitude of high power hitters with great backsides to their baseball cards, are finding that their performance is suffering. The Yankees have a decent record, but the vibe around them is not positive, with their hitting underwhelming despite employing many successful sluggers like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres. The Padres are at the bottom of the league in offense despite boasting four potential MVP candidates in their lineup, most of whom can do more than just slug. The Mets are struggling mightily despite Pete Alonso pacing the sport in homers, Francisco Lindor hitting the ball as hard as ever, and Francisco Alvarez breaking through offensively.
The issue is how hard the guys are swinging. And no I’m not saying that swinging a bat is putting undue strain on these precious hitters. I’m saying you need a mix of efforts in terms of swing speed/length of swing, and the Twins have too many guys selling out for power, especially in key situations that require a base hit. I’ve categorized it that there are three types of hitters based on how hard they swing:
Knock-getters: Think Luis Arraez, Rod Carew, and maybe Royce Lewis (more on that later). They’ll take a few rips to keep pitchers honest but really they're just trying to get a hit somehow.
Slashers: Think Yuli Gurriel or Paul O’Neil. They’ll run into plenty of homers, but mainly they are just trying to get the barrel on the ball. My theory is that medium swingers go into the biggest slumps, perhaps due to oscillations in what “medium swinging” means for a hitter, but can often spark a team in the postseason.
Boppers: Think Joey Gallo or Jim Thome. They want to lift at all times, and swing as hard as they reasonably can. The most rigid approach, and most dependent on mistakes. It also includes most of the current Twins lineup.
It may seem like I am denigrating the power guys like any old baseball analyst from the 1930’s, but what I’m really saying is you can’t have too many of the same type of hitter on your team. As the Padres have shown, you can have four .900 OPS guys in your lineup and still struggle to score. If all you have is knock-getters you end up like the Cleveland Guardians, which isn’t very effective, either. It would seem that a team made up of slashers, or medium swingers, would be great, but I swear they’re streakier, and not always the best defenders.
But a team full of boppers has all the makings of a heartbreaking team. They are scary to face as a pitcher, but importantly, they can be pitched to. For instance, any pitcher knows the game plan on how to get Joey Gallo out: high fastballs and breaking balls below the zone. If you execute that plan Gallo almost certainly will not hurt you; at worst you’ll walk him. A knock-getter, by contrast, can take a pitch you executed well and plop it the other way for a single. Not always, but at a far higher success rate than Gallo just accepting his fate with two strikes. Logically, a shorter, easier swing is easier to control, less deceived by velocity, and easier to pull back on if the pitch is a ball. I don’t think you’ll find a hitter who disagrees with that.
And admit it, when Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton come to the plate with a man on second and two outs down a run, it burns you up because you know you would rather have Christian Vazquez hit in that situation, despite his poor overall numbers.
It’s like a really physical basketball team with an elite big man. You can counter that team by putting a bunch of quick shooters all around the perimeter and forcing the big to come out and defend, negating his overall impact. He’s still really good, yet his existence is hurting the team.
Or it's like a golfer who hits it further than anyone else but is playing a course with tiny fairways and deep rough. He has less margin for error than shorter hitters and his advantage is turned into a weakness.
Or a male pickup artist looking to meet women at a lesbian bar.
From a baseball strategy standpoint too, having a bunch of slower/shorter-swinging guys can make the opposing pitcher less of a factor. And if you’re facing Gerrit Cole or Shohei Ohtani with your season on the line, you want them to matter as little as possible. Elite pitchers, the kind you often see in the postseason, probably won’t make many mistakes during a game. The beautiful part is, if you’re a good knock-getter, you don’t need them to make any mistakes. You’ve accepted you can’t get a homer without several stars aligning, so you try to guess a location and punch the ball through somewhere. You can’t win the war with one swing, but you can pile up wins in individual battles and accomplish the same thing. That is still hard to do, but not as hard as trying to homer off of an elite pitcher who isn’t making mistakes.
After Sunday’s game, Royce Lewis was interviewed and he mentioned that the Tigers approach to Twins’ hitters was to exploit that they were waiting for a mistake. He also said he personally went against that approach by selling out for contact during the game, during which he collected three singles. That was eye-opening because it confirmed what a lot of us fans have witnessed during the Falvey/Baldelli era: Swinging for the fences regardless of situation and hoping for a mistake pitch, resulting in failing to score in too many innings, and falling short offensively even if the total season output was highly ranked.
On that note, the Firejoemorgan.com site of the early aughts was a favorite of mine, and one of Morgan’s most mocked beliefs was that sometimes home run hitters could be selfish. “What a load,” we said, “as if hitting a home run was something to be shamed for when it is statistically the best thing you can do as a hitter.”
Except most of the time guys try to hit home runs, they don’t. The best home run hitters get a dinger every ten to twelve at-bats, a hugely valuable ratio, no doubt. But it’s easier to make contact if you’re just trying to get a knock, and if that’s what the situation dictates, then yes, trying to hit a home run is selfish, because of the home runs you don’t hit.
If you know that a given pitcher is going to start you with a breaking ball outside, and you have the ability to poke a ball the other way, it is your job to ambush that pitcher and get a knock. Good pitchers give up home runs, but good pitches don’t (unless the hitter guesses perfectly), and that’s an important distinction. Sometimes you don’t get the cement mixer breaking ball of your dreams, and already this year, we have seen the reverse approach work against the best of the Twins’ excellent rotation: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have all been victimized by bloop hits and squibbers the other way, often off of good pitches, and those hits have led to key losses against division rivals Cleveland and Detroit, not to mention the Angels, Red Sox, and Rays.
Getting rid of Luis Arraez is then so much more of a blunder by the Twins. He wasn’t just a knock-getter, he was the knock-getter, and the Twins haven’t really had anybody else in recent years who could grind at-bats and was willing to sacrifice almost all his potential power for base hits like Arraez. Lewis has shown this ability at times, notably against Ryan Pressly of the Astros the day he was called up, also mentioning after Sunday’s win that he was trying to channel his “inner-Arraez.”
Which brings me to Austin Martin. He recently returned to action after missing three weeks following a collision in one of his first games back from a sprained UCL in his elbow. That's a real shame because Martin is an up and coming knock-getter, and to hear him tell it, his failed experiment with adding power to his profile in 2022 just made him more committed to selling out for base hits and getting on base no matter what. Putting him in left field, if he’s healthy enough to play, might be the best recreation of Arraez the Twins can do at this point. And they’ll need him if what Lewis says about the hitting approach is true.
If the team is truly gameplanning, or being gameplanned against, by virtue of its hitters trying to stay in at-bats until the pitcher makes a mistake, that’s a problem. It also matches the eye-test of watching this team. Sometimes pitchers don’t make mistakes, and sometimes when they do, you miss them (we’ve seen plenty of that). Whoever is advocating for that approach is stuck in 2019 and though Lewis surely didn’t mean to stir the pot with his comment, his saying it gives me hope that he may inspire others on the team to follow his lead and sell out for contact when appropriate. The vanishing act this offense has shown since the 2019 postseason is no longer a coincidence, it's a trait, and their league-high strikeout rate confirms it. Furthermore, against better pitching overall, with less power and a less juicy ball, that trait is dooming this team to fail despite an incredible (for the Twins) pitching staff. Gallo and Buxton will continue to swing away no matter what, but everyone else needs to realize what’s been right in front of them (by watching their opposition), and to give up a little power for contact. Not always, just when it matters.
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Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Recent trades and potential future moves
Hindsight is 20/20. Who knew our offense would be THIS pathetic? Plus we did need to improve our pitching. but lets take a look at some recent trades and the impact of each.
Lets get the big one out of the way early here. Arraez for Lopez. You have to give something to get something, and yes I think we all knew we were giving away the probable2023 batting champ, seriously??? .400??? Just imagine what he would be doing in our lineup?!?!!! He would most likely be playing 1B so lets take a look at the Twins 1B stats. Arraez for Lopez (+prospects)
Twins 1B = 9 HR 32 RBI 35 BB 80 K 251/357/435 slash line for a .792 OPS. nto horrible NOTE MLB does not assign Runs when sort by position, but Would assume we would be near the bottom.
Arraez = 2 HR 35 RBI 21 BB 15 K 400/450/490 slash line for a .940 OPS. his 31 runs seems low for getting on base that much, but he gets on base!!! and does not strike out!!
Lopex has been decent. not spectacular, but #2 in AL with 110K, he hsa a top 16 in AL WHIP at 1.14. ERA is pedestrian 4.4o before tonight's tough outing. We were able to extend him which has some value. Overall a decent #3 starter for a batting champ hitting .400? that is a bit tough. BUT we did get 2 prospects as well.
Jose Salas. 20 yr old SS at High A. struggling, but a top 10 prospect in our system. Byron Chourio, 18 year old in Rookie league... TBD
RESULT? would still POSSIBLY do it, it had to be done but still hurt, now knowing how bad the offense is struggling it is a coinflip if I'd redo, but fair enough.
Tyler Mahle Trade. This one was 2022 but still counts as it is impacting 2023.
Mahle had a huge injury risk before trading for him, so this is not revisionist history. this trade just straight up should not have been done!!! or at least not given up what we did. What did we give up?
Spencer Steer. versatile player. we probably didn't have much room for him, but he is having a strong RC campaign in Cinci. but again, redundant here so I understand including him. P Steve Hajjar, with all due respect to Steve, a bit of a nothing burger here. But what made me throw my computer (figuratively) seeing this trade was the inclusion fo Christian Encarnacion Strand. This kid is a BEAST. and should have been untouchable. career .325/388/614 for a 1.002 OPS!!
This is a trade that should make GMs lose their jobs. Without CES, I am ok with it. you trade a blocked above average prospect for a pitcher who is good when healthy but big injury concerns. btu the CES makes this HORRID!!!
Another 2022 that Many of us saw falling completely apart before the first pitch was thrown was the Chris Paddack trade.
Paddack for Rogers and Rooker. OK a bit of revisionist history here. (on the Rooker side). I did actually receive a strike against me on Twins Daily here for my description on how easily his Paddack's health status would turn out. I will not restate that here, but I will say it should have been very obvious!!!!
Paddack was a lost season injury waiting to happen, and he happened. Rogers, that FIRST year was DOMINANT!!! but we are talking about this year, so who cares about that. Rooker did finally establish himself this year, although coming back to earth a bit after hot start. But Paddack was lost fro 2022 and for 2023, so again HORRID trade as this was totally foreseeable.
SO again a trade that may not get GMS fired, but should tighten the leash.
Jorge Lopez for prospects. OK this one I cant really hammer the team on, it was a pretty good move at the time, and Lopez pitched fairly well last year, but where we stand now could be the worst of the lot. Lopez has issues (on the field. I do not criticize players off the field). he is nto a major league pitcher. Yennier Cano, one fo the prospects given up is DOMINATING in Baltimore!!! this alone makes it horrid in retrospect. Imagine Cano & Duran!! Cade Povich seems like a decent prospect, a high K pitcher, most likely reliever in the bigs doing fairly well in Baltimore system. adn a couple others (one to watch in the futur eis Juan Rojas currently 19 year old injured) but to me this is purely a Lopez/Cano deal, and as it sits now, we had HORRIBLE results.
Michael Taylor for 2 prospects. Thi sone is a good trade, adn look sbetter when seeing how we are not going to play Buxton in CF (or does this make it worse? would we play Buck in CF if we didnt have Taylor???) overall a good trade so far.
So overall I have to say:
Michael Taylor = B+
Jorge Lopez = D possibyl F based on current situation
Paddack = D (if we gace up more I would have given a F-
Mahle = F-
Pablo Lopez = C- (you knew what it would look like but had to do it)
Overall trade grade for FO = D maybe D+ due to Michael Taylor.
So that begs the question... why should we trust this FO when making Moves that NEED to happen??
Becasue overall any moves will be addition by subtraction.
Future Move #1: DFA Kepler. Ok go ahead and see if you can get cash considerations for him, but he has ZERO trade value. replace him with Wallner.
Future Move #2 DFA/trade Gallo. so he has a DECENT OPS. but his K rate and .192 avg just cant play.
Future Move #3 Trade Sonny Gray... wait WHAT??? yes you heard me. he is about the only thing of value to trade on this team. He will not be back next year as he will command more than the Twins will be willing to pay. plus he HATES the short leashes pitchers get here with the Twins so he will choose elsewhere for same/less money. if we QO offer him in teh offseason, he will go unsigned anyways, as he will be 34 and nobody will give him a multi year deal at $20M+ with a QO tag associated. so lets trade him now get some value. as this team is currently constructed he is a luxury. a #1 starter on a bad team. yes we may win this bad division, but only to get bumped in first round (possibly swept again) we can get these same results without him, so trade him and get value!!!
Future move #4 Buxton must play CF!! Who cares if he stays healthy if he isnt producing? and we are losing with him in the lineup now so who cares ifhe gets injured and misses time by playing in OF. AT LEAST 2 games a week he needs to be in CF. if it doesnt give the TEAM a spark, it could give the FANS a spark.
Future move #5 Royce Lewis needs to play EVERY DAY!! (assuming he is healthy, and I am guessing they doing "load management" with his 2 knee surgeries, but again at least give FANS a spark.
I am leaving it with on field moves for now, but would not be opposed to losing hitting coach (high number of K's across the board speaks to team approach), trainer (we brought in a training guru but how many hammies have we had this year and other DL stints???) Head Coach (cannot pull starters after 75 pitches, cannot pinch hit a sub .200 hitter for your hottest hitter, cannot set a lineup against an "opener" only to pinch-hit for your starting DH after 2 innings. and of course based on the trading scorecard GMs cannot trade away quality players for pitchers with known injury histories and expect history to not repeat itself.
WOW that went way longer than I anticipated!!!! LOL
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Karbo reacted to Devlin Clark for a blog entry, Which way should the Twins go for help?
The Twins have struggled to score runs, that's no secret. The nine runs they scored on Saturday were the most they'd scored in the last six games. The offense is striking out at not just an alarming pace; but a record breaking one as well. They're currently on pace to catch the 2021 Cubs, who set the all time record. The Twins have 667 coming into today's game against TOR, in 65 games (10.26/game). Gallo and Michael A. Taylor lead with 62 each. But is this the Twins biggest problem and should it be something they try to address at the trade deadline?
The Twins pitching staff has been much better than the offense, well, the rotation has. The entire staff has the second best ERA in baseball at 3.46, just behind HOU at 3.28. The Twins as a staff are also number two in all of MLB in strikeouts with 617, behind TOR with 625 and second in quality starts with 32, behind only Seattle's 33. So what's the problem? The Twins are having one of the best season for pitching they've had in a decade. The problem is allowing runs late in the game.
(Courtesy of ESPN, these stats are before the 6/11 game vs TOR)
So what inning has been the most problematic? If we use the graph below, it tells us the 7th innings. That's the inning that the SP usually gets pulled and the bullpen comes in. When you have Lopez with anERA over 4 that's a recipe for disaster. Factor in Jax, Pagan and Alcala and this bullpen has been total, garbage (outside of Duran, Headrick and a few select others.)
If the Twins have any hope of staying above .500 and winning the division and ending the 0-18 streak in October (you know which streak I'm talking about, and it's not The Undertaker's) they will need to acquire bullpen help. I truly think despite the strikeouts, the offense can scrap runs across, there's too many good hitters not too.
My suggestion for Falvey and Co: Dont wait until the trade deadline to make a move. Do it now, build a lead in the worst division and baseball, and enjoy the summer. (Photo courtesy of ESPN)
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Karbo reacted to jlarson for a blog entry, Did these 10 players struggle the most during their Twins career?
ChatGPT 4 is all the rage these days. If you do not know what ChatGPT, ChatGPT is an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot developed by OpenAI and released in November 2022. It is built on top of OpenAI's GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 foundational GPT large language models (LLMs) and has been fine-tuned (an approach to transfer learning) for conversational applications using both supervised and reinforcement learning techniques.
It can be a lot of fun to ask it questions about the Minnesota Twins. What do we think about this list of 10 players who "struggled" during their Minnesota Twins tenure. Are these the worst Twins players in history?
Tsuyoshi Nishioka feels right at home on this list, what about Ron Coomer?
Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Nishioka, a Japanese infielder, had a disappointing stint with the Twins from 2011 to 2012, batting just .215 with limited defensive contributions.
Drew Butera: While a reliable catcher defensively, Butera struggled offensively during his time with the Twins (2010-2013), hitting .182 with limited power.
Vance Worley: Worley, a starting pitcher, struggled to find success with the Twins from 2013 to 2014, posting a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts.
Juan Castro: In 2005, Castro played shortstop for the Twins and struggled offensively, hitting .221 with limited power.
Terry Felton: Felton, a relief pitcher, struggled during his time with the Twins from 1979 to 1983, posting a career ERA of 5.43.
David McCarty: McCarty, an infielder/outfielder, struggled offensively during his time with the Twins (1995-1997), batting .229 with limited power.
Brian Buscher: Buscher played third base for the Twins from 2006 to 2009, posting a career batting average of .266 but struggled with limited power.
Ron Coomer: Coomer, an infielder, struggled offensively during his time with the Twins (1995-2000), hitting .274 with limited power.
Tim Teufel: Teufel played second base for the Twins from 1983 to 1995 but struggled offensively, batting .249 with limited power.
Gene Glynn: Glynn, an infielder, struggled during his time with the Twins from 1979 to 1985, hitting .209 with limited power.
Just to note it does look like ChatGPT is looking at some entire careers for this list. Tim Teufel was pretty good with the Twins.

