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Karbo

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  1. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for April 4th   
    TABLE OF CONTENTS:
    • Birthdate of a Clubhouse Cancer
    • Tommy John Pitches in 26th Season
    • Twins Trade Pomeranz
    • Ortiz Walk-Off
    April 4, 1956
    Birthdate of Tommy Herr
    Clubhouse cancer Tommy frickin’ Herr was born on this date in 1956. Screw that guy, am I right?
    April 4, 1989
    Tommy John Pitches in 26th Season
    45-year-old Tommy John was the Yankees Opening Day starter at the Metrodome on this date in 1989, outdueling reigning Cy Young Award winner Frank Viola for a 4-2 Yankees win. 1989 was John’s 26th season in the majors, setting a modern record (since 1900). Not bad for a guy whose name is synonymous with injuries. 
    The record didn’t last long, as Nolan Ryan pitched in his 27th season in 1993. 
    Twins fans may remember Tommy John as Dick Bremer‘s broadcast partner from 1994 to 1996, succeeding 25-year major league veteran Jim Kaat and preceding 22-year veteran Bert Blyleven. Bremer worked with some pretty long-tenured pitchers. In addition to Kaat, John, and Blyleven, he partnered with 21-year MLB veteran LaTroy Hawkins, and Jack Morris, who pitched a mere 18 seasons in the majors. 
    John’s son, Tommy John III, was the Gatorade Minnesota State Player of the Year in 1996 at Orono High School in Long Lake, Minnesota. 
    April 4, 1990
    Twins Trade Pomeranz for Ortiz
    The Twins traded future-KARE 11 anchor Mike Pomeranz to the Pirates for Junior Oritz and minor league pitcher Orlando Lind on this date in 1990.
    Oritz—who wore number 0—hit .335 (57-for-170) in 71 games (47 starts) in 1990. He is perhaps best remembered at Scott Erickson‘s personal catcher during the Twins’ 1991 World Series Championship season. Of course the primary catcher on that team was Brian Harper, who Ortiz had previous been teammates with in Pittsburgh.
    Fun Fact: Ortiz got his first major league hit off Jim Kaat. 
    Mike Pomeranz never made it to the majors. Many Minnesotans will remember him as an anchor on channel 11 from 2006 to 2012. These days, he lives in San Diego and can be seen on Padres pre- and post-game broadcasts.
    April 4, 2000
    David Ortiz Walk-Off
    The day after losing on Opening Day, the Twins trailed the Devil Rays 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth. Cristian Guzmán tied it up with a double to left, driving in Todd Walker, and David Ortiz connected for a two-out walk-off single for a 6-5 Twins win.
    The Twins walked off the Rays again the next night after trailing 7-1 going into the eighth. In Game 4, the Twins blew a ninth-inning lead to split the series. 
  2. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for April 3rd   
    TABLE OF CONTENTS:
    • Happy Birthday, Darrell Jackson and Ryan Doumit
    • First Game at the Domea
    • Old Man Grand Slam
    • Radke Does Radke Stuff
    • Stelmaszek Throws Out First Pitch
    • Combined One-Hit Shutout
    April 3
    Happy Birthday, Darrell Jackson
    Happy birthday to former Twins pitcher Darrell Jackson, born in Los Angeles on this date in 1956. The Arizona State alumnus pitched nine no-hit innings in his professional debut at double-A Orlando on April 14, 1978. Manager Johnny Goryl went to the pen, though, in the 10th, and Orlando eventually won in 12 innings. 
    In Jackson’s fourth major league start on July 7th of that year he pitched a three-hit shutout for a 1-0 Twins win in Oakland. A’s pitcher Rick Langford also went all nine innings, allowing just one unearned run in the top of the fifth. Good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel. 
    April 3
    Happy Birthday, Ryan Doumit
    Happy birthday to switch-hitting catcher Ryan Doumit, born in Moses Lake, Washington on this date in 1981. He was DH’ing on July 22, 2012 when he became the third player in Twins history to homer from both sides of the plate in a game. He also had a two-run single, knocking in four runs altogether in a 7-5 Twins win in Kansas City.
    The first two Twins to homer from both sides in a game were Roy Smalley and Chili Davis. Smalley, Davis, and Doumit were all at Target Field one day in 2012 (Smalley as a broadcaster, and Davis as the A’s hitting coach) and autographed balls for each other commemorating their accomplishment. 
    Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco have since joined the club. 
    April 3, 1982
    First MLB Game at the Dome
    The Twins and Phillies played an exhibition game at the Metrodome, the first major league game at the new ballpark. After Pete Rose connected for the Dome’s first single, Bloomington native Kent Hrbek hit the first AND second home runs in Metrodome history, powering the Twins to a 5-0 win.
    April 3, 1997
    Old Man Grand Slam
    40-year-old Twins DH Paul Molitor hit a grand slam off Detroit’s Willie Blair at home in the Dome on this date in 1997, driving in Todd Walker, Chuck Knoblauch, and Rich Becker.
    It was the third and final grand slam of the 1974 Cretin High School graduate’s career. The second came off Minnesota’s Dave Stevens on July 5, 1994. The first came way back on April 22, 1981.
    41-year-old Dave Winfield hit a grand slam at the Metrodome on April 4, 1993. I believe he is the oldest Twin to do so. (Let me know if I’m wrong.)
    Atlanta’s Julio Franco became the oldest player in major league history to hit a grand slam on June 27, 2005 at age 46. Playing for the Mets, he became the oldest player to hit a home run off the Diamondbacks’s Randy Johnson on May 4, 2007 at age 48.
    April 3, 2000
    Radke Does Radke Stuff
    Brad Radke gave up a home run to Devil Rays center fielder Gerald Williams on literally the first pitch of the 2000 season. Now, Radke was famously susceptible to the first-inning long ball, but first pitch of the season? Come on! 
    Hall of Famer Fred McGriff also homered off Radke in the 7-0 Tampa Bay win at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome.
    April 3, 2017
    Stelmaszek Throws Out First Pitch
    Flanked by an assembly of Twins all-time greats, Rick Stelmaszek threw out the first pitch at the Twins home opener on this date in 2017. It was an emotional occasion, as Stelly had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer over the winter and was visibly frail. He passed away just seven months later at age 69.
    NOBODY spent more seasons in a Twins uniform. Thirty-two seasons, from 1981 to 2012. In the entire history of Major League Baseball, only two men have coached more years with a single team.
     
    April 3, 2021
    Combined One-Hit Shutout
    José Berríos and Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes both had no-hitters going through six innings on this date in 2021, with 12 of Berríos’s 18 outs coming via the K. Both pitchers were perfect before exchanging hit-by-pitches in the fifth inning.
    In a move that surely met with immediate grumbling on social media, Rocco Baldelli pulled Berríos after six innings with the no-hitter still on the line.
    Brewers manager Craig Counsell, on the other hand, left Burnes in there, and he gave up what would be the game-winning home run to Byron Buxton with one out in the top of the seventh. (It was Buxton’s second-straight game with a homer to start the season.) 
    Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, struck out the side in the bottom of the seventh. 
    The Brewers finally broke up the Twins no-hit bid with a single off Tyler Duffey in the eighth. Alex Colomé got the ninth and locked down the one-hit shutout for a 2-0 Twins win. (Arráez added an RBI single in the eighth.)
    Removing a starter with a no-hitter going in always controversial, but here we have a case where one got lifted for a reliever and his teammates completed the shutout, while the other stayed in the game and gave up the game-winning home run. Well played, Rocco; well played. 
  3. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for April 2nd   
    TABLE OF CONTENTS:
    • Happy Birthday, Tom Johnson and Denny Hocking
    • Twins Trade Ramos for Power and Stigman
    • First MLB Game at Target Field 
    April 2
    Happy Birthday, Tom Johnson
    Happy birthday to former Twins pitcher Tom Johnson, born in St. Paul in 1951. He had a stellar season out of the Twins bullpen in 1977, earning 16 wins (all in relief) and 15 saves. Those 16 wins were ninth-most in the American League, and 15 saves were seventh-most. I wonder how many guys have finished top-10 in both wins and saves in the same season. His 71 appearances were second in the AL only to the Yankees’ Sparky Lyle. Johnson even received MVP votes.

    Johnson graduated from St. Paul’s Murray High School (now a middle school) in 1969, the same year Dave Winfield graduated from St. Paul Central. Both players accepted scholarships to play for coaches Dick Siebert and Jerry Kindall at the University of Minnesota, but Johnson backed out at the last minute and signed a professional contract with the Twins.
    Johnson’s MLB debut is an interesting story. It came at Met Stadium on September 10, 1974 (age 23), starting the top of the 14th in relief of 1961 St. Cloud Cathedral graduate Tom Burgmeier. The Twins had a 4-1 lead entering the ninth when White Sox catcher Brian Downing hit a three-run homer off Bill Campbell to tie it up. Each team scored in the 11th and 13th innings for a 6-6 tie going into the top of the 14th.
    Johnson struck out the first batter he faced, Eddie Leon. He gave up a single to the second batter, Jorge Orta. During the next at-bat, Johnson had Orta picked off first but made a throwing error, allowing Orta to advance to second. Orta later came around to score, with the run being unearned, despite the error being on Johnson himself.
    Trailing 7-6 in the bottom of the inning, Eric Soderholm reached on a two-out single, and scored the tying run on a Tony Oliva double. Johnson came back out to pitch a 1-2-3 top of the 15th.
    With one out in the bottom of the inning, Goose Gossage walked Rod Carew, who stole second, and scored on a Larry Hisle walk-off single, giving Johnson the win over future Hall of Famer Goose Gossage in his major league debut.
    Johnson also earned the win in his second appearance three days later (September 13), again with Carew scoring the walk-off run, this time with a home run leading off the 10th.
    He pitched in both halves of a doubleheader on September 14, earning a save in Game 1. That was it for Johnson in 1974. In four major league appearances he earned two wins and a save. He pitched seven innings, giving up four hits and a walk for a 0.571 WHIP.
    In 1975 and ’76, he split time between triple-A Tacoma and the Twins.
    1977 was his lone standout season (as noted above).
    He struggled during 18 appearances in 1978, his final major league season. Perhaps he been too much of a workhorse the previous season.
    Read Jim McKernon‘s SABR BioProject essay on Johnson.
    April 2
    Happy Birthday, Denny Hocking
    Happy birthday to Twins fan-favorite Denny Hocking, born in Southern California on this date in 1953. He played 11 seasons in a Twins uniform, from 1993 to 2003.
    Fun Fact: When the Twins drafted him in the 52nd round out of El Camino College in his hometown of Torrance, CA after his freshman year in 1989, Hocking was a right-handed hitting catcher, but they told him he had a better chance of making it to the majors if he became a switch-hitting infielder. 
    He had five consecutive three-hit games at single-A Visalia in 1992. (His .331 average was second-best on the Oaks that season behind Marty Cordova‘s .341.) 
    Hocking had two five-hit games with the Twins:
    • 5-for-6 with three doubles in Detroit on June 27, 1999
    • 5-for-6 with two doubles in Oakland on May 18, 2000
    The Twins retired number 7 in 2019. 

     
    April 2, 1962
    Twins Trade Ramos For Power and Stigman
    It what is commonly considered the first major trade in team history, the Twins traded Pedro Ramos to Cleveland for four-time All-Star Vic Power and Nimrod, MN native and 1960 All-Star Dick Stigman on this date in 1962.
    Ramos started the first regular season game in Twins history, pitching a three-hit shutout opposing Whitey Ford at Yankee Stadium on April 11, 1961. Ramos, himself, knocked Whitey out of that game, with a two-run single in the seventh. 
    Ramos was involved in an interesting piece of Twins history on May 12, 1961, as he and Angels pitcher Eli Grba traded homers off each other. Grba homered off Ramos in the top of the fifth to give the Angels a 3-2 lead. Ramos returned the favor in the bottom of the inning to tie the game. He added a two-run single in the sixth, and the Twins held on to win 5-4, with the pitcher Ramos driving in the final three runs.
    Minnesota native Dick Stigman went 12-5 in 40 appearances (15 starts) in his first season with the Twins.

    1963 was his best season. He pitched a three-hit shutout in his second start of the season on April 18, and went on to post a 15-15 record in 33 starts. That’s just three no-decisions! He posted career-bests with a 3.25 ERA, 1.207 WHIP, 15 complete games, and 193 strikeouts, finishing third in the American League in the latter two categories. (Camilo Pascual led the league in both. Pedro Ramos, incidentally, was second in the AL with a 1.067 WHIP, and 8.237 strikeouts per nine innings with Cleveland that season.)
    Vic Power won the Gold Glove at first base in each of his three seasons with the Twins, bringing his career total to seven. 
    April 2, 2010
    First MLB Game at Target Field
    The Twins and Cardinals played an exhibition game at Target Field—the first major league game at the new ballpark—on this date in 2010. Center fielder Denard Span had himself a day, collecting the stadium’s first hit (a triple, of course), first home run, and first run scored.
    Jacque Jones, attempting a comeback with the club, made a pinch-hitting appearance. Who remembers the standing ovation he received? I still get goosebumps thinking about it. 
  4. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for April 1st   
    TABLE OF CONTENTS:
    • Birthdate of Ron Perranoski
    • Meares Hits Game-Winning Homer
    • Five Home Runs on Opening Day
    • Carneal Passes Away
    • Mauer Ready to Lead Twins to Title
    • Berríos Pitches Three-Hit Shutout
    April 1, 1936
    Birthdate of Ron Perranoski
    Ron Perranoski was born in Paterson, New Jersey on this date in 1936. He led the American League in saves in 1969 and ’70 when the Twins won back-to-back AL West Championships. He received MVP votes both seasons, and received Cy Young votes in 1970, the year teammate Jim Perry won the award. 
    Perranoski won two World Series rings with the Dodgers, including in 1965 when they beat the Twins in seven games.
    The Twins acquired him along with John Roseboro and Bob Miller in a November 1967 trade with the Dodgers in exchange for Jim “Mudcat” Grant and Zoilo Versalles. 
    April 1, 1997
    Meares Powers Twins to Opening Day Win
    The Twins trailed the Tigers 5-3 heading into the bottom of the eighth on Opening Day before a four-run rally, capped off by a two-out, two-run homer by eight-hitter Pat Meares, driving in Terry Steinbach for the winning run in Steinbach's Twins debut. 
    All nine batters in the starting lineup had at least one hit, with Molitor, Lawton, Steinbach, and Meares connecting for two each. The lineup that day:
    Chuck Knoblauch, 2B Rich Becker, CF Paul Molitor, DH Marty Cordova, LF Matt Lawton, RF Terry Steinbach, C Scott Stahoviak, 1B Pat Meares, SS Todd Walker, 3B Brad Radke made the Opening Day start. Three of the four relievers TK used that day were at one time closers for the Twins: Rick Aguilera (who earned the save in this game), “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, and Mike Trombley. Dan Naulty also pitched in relief and was credited with the win. 
    April 1, 2002
    Twins Hit 5 HRs on Opening Day
    After a winter during which team owner Carl Pohlad openly talked contraction, Jacque Jones homered on the second pitch of the game on Opening Day in Kansas City. Jones also hit a three-run go-ahead homer in the seventh, powering the Twins to an 8-6 win.
    David Ortiz, Brian Buchanan, and Torii Hunter each hit solo homers for a total of five, tying the American League Opening Day record.
    The Twins are the most recent of five AL teams to hit five homers on Opening Day. The Mets set the major league Opening Day record with six against the Expos in 1988. The MLB record for home runs in any game is 10, by the Blue Jays against the Orioles in 1987.
    April 1, 2007
    Carneal Passes Away
    Legendary Twins radio broadcaster Herb Carneal passed away on this date in 2007, at age 83. He spent FORTY-FOUR years calling Twins games, originally joining Ray Scott and Halsey Hall in 1962—the Twins’ second season in Minnesota. He received the Hall of Fame’s Ford C. Frick Award in 1996. He and Jim Kaat comprised the sophomore class of the Twins Hall of Fame, inducted on July 7, 2001.
    On a personal note, when I was in elementary school, I won a drawing at Hardee’s (true story) and got to spend an inning in the booth with Herb Carneal and John Gordon.
    April 1, 2010
    Joe Mauer appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated Kids on this date in 2010. Take a close look at that cover: “Joe Mauer is ready to lead the Minnesota Twins to the World Series.” Uff da . . .
    I mean, I guess it was April Fools’ Day 🙂

     
    April 1, 2018
    Berríos Gets Off to Hot Start
    José Berríos got off to a heckuva start in 2018, pitching a complete-game three-hit shutout in his first start of the season for a 7-0 Twins win in Baltimore. 
    The Twins had the lead from the very first pitch, as Brian Dozier hit his team record 28th and final leadoff home run. (Jacque Jones has the second-most leadoff home runs in team history with 20.)
    In 2019, Berríos was the Twins Opening Day starter. He responded by pitching the first 7.2 innings of the Twins’ first Opening Day shutout in 49 years (Jim Perry, 1970). Taylor Rogers earned the four-out save, striking out three.  
  5. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for March 31st   
    And here it is, folks—the Twins Almanac for March 31st:
    March 31, 1971
    Twins Release Tiant
    After just one season in Minnesota, the Twins released Luis Tiant at the end of spring training on this date in 1971. 
    1970—Tiant’s sole season in Minnesota—was the middle of a three-year rough patch in his career. He had posted double-digit wins each of his first five seasons in Cleveland, culminating with 21 in 1968 when he led the league with a 1.60 ERA and 0.871 WHIP and came in fifth in MVP balloting.  
    Keep in mind 1968 was the famed “Year of the Pitcher,” during which Detroit’s Denny McLain led the majors with 31 wins, while St. Louis’s Bob Gibson led the majors with a 1.12 ERA and 0.853 WHIP. 
    But then, in 1969, he led the majors with 21 losses, leading to speculation he was pitching hurt. 
    Following his lackluster ’69 season, the Twins acquired Tiant along with Stan Williams from Cleveland in exchange for Dean Chance, Ted Uhlaender, Graig Nettles, and Bob Miller.
    Tiant got off to a very good start in Minnesota. He was 6-0 through his first 10 starts, but he left that sixth victory early with a sore shoulder and it was subsequently discovered he had a cracked bone in his throwing shoulder. He returned after 10 weeks’ rest, but was much less effective the rest of the season, including in the 1970 ALCS. 
    Following his release by Minnesota, Atlanta gave Tiant a 30-day trial with their triple-A affiliate, after he which he was released again. Boston then picked him up and assigned him to Triple A, and he pitched his way back to the majors by early June. 
    Though he had kept his career afloat, 1971 was the third-straight subpar season for Tiant. 
    No longer able to rely on his fastball, Tiant reinvented himself as a junkballer, leading to a remarkable renaissance in Boston, beginning in 1972 when he led the majors with a 1.91 ERA. Over the five seasons from 1972 to 1976, he averaged 19 wins and received MVP votes in three of those seasons. 
    Long story short, a player the Twins released became a Red Sox legend.
    Thirty-one years later, the Twins released David Ortiz, but that’s a story for another day. 
    Adding insult to injury, remember the Twins had given up Graig Nettles in that trade to acquire Tiant. 
    Nettles, of course, went on to become a Yankees all-time great. He was MVP of the 1981 ALCS and to this day has the sixth-most home runs by a third baseman in MLB history.
    He started the third-most double plays by a third baseman in MLB history. (Gary Gaetti is number four on that list.)
    Nettles and Tiant have the sixth- and seventh-highest career bWARs among players who spent any amount of time in a Twins uniform. 
    March 31, 1987
    Twins Acquire Gladden, Release Hatcher
    With less than a week remaining in spring training, the Twins released fan-favorite Mickey Hatcher and acquired the much more dynamic Dan Gladden from San Francisco in exchange for two prospects and a player to be named later on this date in 1987. 
    That player to be named later turned out to be 1982 Bemidji graduate and Golden Gophers all-time great Bryan Hickerson. Fun Fact: Hickerson was the recipient of the first two Dave Winfield Pitcher of the Year Awards in Gophers history.
    Hatcher was still owed $650,000 for 1987, and had a $100,000 buyout clause for 1988. It was the most expensive contract the Twins had eaten to date, but it proved to be a prudent business decision, as Gladden was a key contributor to the only two World Series Championships in Twins history.
    A major appeal of Gladden was his game-changing speed. A newspaper headline the morning after the trade read “Popularity Sacrificed for Steals,” a motivation confirmed by Twins executive vice president Andy MacPhail, who said that “the reason we got him is he gives us speed. He can steal bases. He’s a good turf player.”
    Hatcher, who had been with the Twins since 1981, and peaked in ‘84, was a pretty one-dimensional player. “He just didn’t fit in,” Tom Kelly said; “there’s no place for him to play on this team. We have better athletes. We didn’t need him as a designated hitter or a pinch hitter, either.”
    Hatcher signed with the Dodgers with whom he won a World Series ring in 1988, hitting .368 with two home runs in the four-games-to-one victory over the Oakland A’s.
    The Gladden trade was the third significant move of the 1987 offseason. In February, the Twins acquired Jeff Reardon and Al Newman in separate trades with Montreal. They later traded for Joe Niekro on June 6, Dan Schatzeder on June 23, Steve Carlton on July 31, and Don Baylor on September 1.
    In contrast, the Twins made zero trades during the 1991 season. 

    March 31, 2014
    Mounds View Grad Makes MLB Debut
    2007 Mounds View graduate and Golden Gophers all-time great Seth Rosin made his major league debut with the Rangers on this date in 2014, pitching a scoreless ninth on Opening Day, striking out 2006 NL MVP Ryan Howard on three pitches for his first big-league K.
  6. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for March 30   
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    • Twins Trade Landreaux for Hatcher
    • Bob Casey Laid to Rest
    • Great Starting Pitching in 2019
    • Brainerd HS Grad Off to a Great Start
    March 30, 1981
    Twins Trade Landreaux for Hatcher
    The Twins traded Ken Landreaux to the Dodgers for Mickey Hatcher and a pair of prospects on this date in 1981. Calvin Griffith had acquired Landreaux and a trio of prospects from the Angels two years earlier in exchange for Rod Carew. 
    Landreaux made Twins history twice during the 1980 season. He compiled a Twins record 31-game hitting streak from April 23 to May 30. Then, on July 3, he tied the modern MLB record (since 1900) with three triples in a 10-3 home win over Texas. (Denard Span matched that record on June 29, 2010.)
    Hatcher made Twins history on April 28, 1985, going 4-for-5 in a 10-1 Twins win over Oakland at home in the Dome. He had gone 5-for-5 the previous day, giving him nine consecutive hits, tying the team record established by Tony Oliva in 1967. (Todd Walker matched the feat in 1998.)
    Hatcher, who had become a real fan-favorite, was released near the end of Spring Training 1987 when the Twins acquired Dan Gladden in a trade with San Francisco. 
    Hatcher signed with the Dodgers with whom he won a World Series ring in 1988, hitting .368 with two home runs in the four-games-to-one victory over the Oakland A’s.
    March 30, 2005
    Bob Casey Laid to Rest
    The inimitable Bob Casey was eulogized at St. Olaf Catholic Church in Minneapolis and laid to rest at Fort Snelling National Cemetery on this date in 2005 (age 79). 
    PFC Casey served in the U.S. Army Air Forces during World War II. Longtime public relations director Tom Mee—famously the first employee in Twins history—is also laid to rest at Fort Snelling.
    Tony Oliva, Kent Hrbek, Dan Gladden, Jack Morris, John Gordon, and Dave St. Peter served as pallbearers at Casey’s funeral. Others in attendance included fellow WWII veteran Carl Pohlad, Roy Smalley, Juan Berenguer, Tim Laudner, and Scott Leius. 

     
    March 30, 2019
    Twins Starters Start Out Hot
    After José Berríos struck out 10 on Opening Day, Jake Odorizzi struck out 11 over six innings, making Berríos and Odorizzi just the second duo in MLB history to record 10+ strikeouts in the first two games of the season. The first pair were Arizona’s Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in 2001.

     
    Unfortunately, the Twins fell to Cleveland 2-1. Odorozzi and Trevor Bauer allowed just one run each—both coming in the fourth inning—but Cleveland pushed a run across off reliever Blake Parker in the top of the ninth. Chaska native Brad Hand came in to secure the save for Cleveland in the bottom of the ninth, but not without some drama. He gave up a leadoff double to Byron Buxton and eventually loaded the bases before inducing a game-ending fly ball to shallow right field from C.J. Cron. 
    March 30, 2019
    Anderson Gets Off to Hot Start
    Two days after retiring the only batter he faced in his major league debut, 28-year-old Brainerd native Nick Anderson struck out all three batters he faced in the eighth inning of a 7-3 Marlins win on this date in 2019. 
    Worth noting that the Twins had Anderson in their system, but they traded him for infielder Brian Schales prior to the season. (No, I’ve never heard of him either.)  

     
  7. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for March 29   
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    • Happy Birthday, Mike Kingery and Billy Beane
    • Twins Acquire Veteran Pinch Hitter
    • Puckett Placed on DL
    March 29
    Happy Birthday, Mike Kingery
    Happy 63rd birthday to 1979 Atwater High School graduate Mike Kingery, born in Saint James, MN in 1961. When he was six months old, the Kingerys moved to Atwater where Mike’s father was proprietor of the Atwater Bowling Center.
    Kingery signed with the Royals as an amateur free agent on August 27, 1979. He made his major league debut in Kansas City on July 7, 1986 at age 25, going 2-for-4 in a 8-1 loss to the Orioles. He would go on to play 819 major league games over parts of 10 seasons with Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, Oakland, Colorado, and Pittsburgh.
    A career .268 hitter, Kingery’s best season by far came at age 33 in Colorado during the strike-shortened 1994 season when he hit .349 over 105 games. Interesting to note that the Rockies GM at the time was Lamberton, MN native and former Twins pitcher and front office executive Bob Gebhard, and the manager was 1987 World Series hero Don Baylor. (Dan Gladden was a Rockies scout from 1996 to 1998.)
    Curious how Kingery did against the Twins? He hit .290 in 24 career games versus the Minnesota, including a home run off Les Straker on July 29, 1987. That same season he hit two home runs off 1973 Highland Park High School graduate Jack Morris.
    Kingery and Blix Donnelly headlined the seven-member 2014 inaugural class of the West Central Baseball Hall of Fame in Willmar.
    A handful of years ago now, Mrs. Almanac and I swung into the Moose Lake Dairy Queen and noticed a poster for “The Kingery Family,” a travelling singing and ministry troupe. Turns out Mike and his wife Chris are parents of EIGHT children. In addition to his minstrel work, Mike Kingery operates the Solid Foundation Baseball School in Grove City, MN.
    March 29
    Happy Birthday, Billy Beane
    Happy 62nd birthday to 1980 Mets first-round draft pick and longtime A’s general manager Billy Beane. He came to the Twins as part of a January 1986 trade that sent Tim Teufel to the Mets.
    He had a heckuva game at Yankee Stadium on April 29, 1986. Entering the game with just three hits in 17 major league games dating back to 1984 (zero in his first four games with the Twins), Beane went 5-for-5 with a walk and his first career home run. (Twins lost 14-11.) Those five hits accounted for 7.6% of the just 66 hits Beane collected over parts of six major league seasons. He had fewer than five hits total in four of his six seasons.
    He was a September call-up in 1987 and came up clutch in his first MLB plate appearance of the season. He entered as a defensive replacement in right field in the top of the 11th of a 1-1 game against the Brewers on September 4. He came to the plate with two out and the bases loaded in the bottom of the 12th and connected for a walk-off single to center off Dan Plesac, driving in Gary Gaetti. (Plesac made his first of three-straight All-Star appearances that season.) The win gave the Twins a three-game lead over Oakland in the AL West.
    March 29, 1978
    Morales Acquired from Expos
    The Twins purchased the contract of José Morales from the Expos on this date in 1978. He had set a major league record with 25 pinch hits in 1976 (since broken). In his first season with the Twins, he led all DH’s with a .323 average and set a team record with 14 pinch hits (since broken by Chip Hale). His 36 pinch hits in a Twins uniform are fourth-most in team history.
    He tied Jerry Terrell‘s team record by grounding into three double plays on May 17, 1980.
    March 29, 1996
    Puckett Placed on DL 
    After doctors determined his blurry vision was caused by a partial blockage of a blood vessel in his right eye, the Twins placed Kirby Puckett on the 15-day disabled list for the first time in his career on this date in 1996.
    Please join the conservation in the comments section below.
    Keep in touch with the Twins Almanac on Twitter and Facebook. 
  8. Like
    Karbo reacted to BigJoeGun for a blog entry, Last minute preseason picks between my brother and I   
    Every year my brother and I make preseason picks just for fun just to see if we differ and who gets more right. Without further adieu:
    My brother’s picks:
    AL Division winners:
    Orioles 
    Twins
    Rangers
    Wildcards:
    Yankees
    Rays
    Astros
    NL Division winners:
    Braves
    Brewers
    Dodgers
    Wildcars:
    Reds
    Giants
    Diamondbacks
    League Champs
    Orioles
    Dodgers
    World Series victors:
    Dodgers
    My picks:
    Okay. Here's mine.
    AL  Division winners:
    Orioles 
    Twins
    Astros
    Wildcards
    Yankees
    Mariners
    Blue Jays
    NL Division winners:
    Braves
    Reds
    Dodgers
    Wildcards:
    Phillies
    Giants
    Diamondbacks
    League Champs
    Orioles
    Braves
    WS
    Braves
    Happy Opening Day everyone!
  9. Like
    Karbo reacted to Matt Johnson for a blog entry, The Twins Almanac for March 28   
    With the 2024 season starting today, I thought I'd start up the old Almanac blog again. You think I can keep this up every day all season long? Stay tuned!
    With no further ado, here it is—the Twins Almanac for March 28th:
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    • Some Unsettling News About Kirby
    • Berríos Historically Good on Opening Day
    • Brainerd Grad Makes MLB Debut
    March 28, 1996
    Puckett Wakes Up with Vision Problem
    36-year-old superstar Kirby Puckett appeared poised for a big year, hitting .344 in spring training, when on the last day of camp he woke up unable to see out of his right eye. He would be diagnosed with glaucoma and one day later placed on the 15-day disabled list (or injured list) for the first time in his career.
    Quoting directly from a New York Times article from March 31, 1996:
    “Kirby Puckett’s blurry vision is being caused by a partial blockage of a blood vessel in his right eye, and the Minnesota outfielder will miss the season opener, the Twins said Friday after placing him on the 15-day disabled list … retroactive to Thursday, making him eligible to return April 12. During that time, he will undergo treatment and will be able to work out with the club. Matt Lawton, who went 2 for 4 with a run batted in in Puckett’s place Friday, will start against the Tigers tomorrow.”
    Unfortunately, four surgeries did nothing to improve Puckett’s vision, and he officially retired on July 12.
    March 28, 2019
    Berríos’s Historically Good Opening Day Start
    José Berríos was historically good on Opening Day 2019, giving up just two hits and a walk while striking out 10 over 7.2 innings. He was the first pitcher in franchise history to pitch at least seven scoreless innings and strike out 10 on Opening Day since Walter Johnson did so in 1917. 
    Worth noting that Brainerd native Bullet Joe Bush took the loss for the Philadelphia Athletics in that 1917 game. And since we’re talking about 1917, Red Sox pitcher Babe Ruth beat the Yankees on Opening Day that year. 
    Taylor Rogers retired the final four batters, striking out three, to secure the 2-0 Twins win over Cleveland at Target Field. The Twins’ only runs came on a Marwin Gonázlez double off Corey Kluber in the seventh, knocking in Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron. (All three players were making their Twins debuts, providing plenty of optimism to start the season.) Chaska native Brad Hand came in to get the final out for Cleveland in the bottom of the eighth. 
     
    Berríos’s 10 Opening Day strikeouts set a new Twins record, breaking Brad Radke’s previous record of eight K’s over six innings in 1996 (Radke’s second season). 
    Berríos’s gem was the fourth Opening Day shutout in Twins history, and the first since Jim Perry’s complete-game shutout in Chicago in 1970.
    The second Opening Day shutout in Twins history was by Dean Chance in Washington in 1968, with the Twins’ two runs coming on Harmon Killebrew and Bob Allison home runs off Senators pitcher Camilo Pascual. 
    And the first Opening Day shutout came in the very first regular season game in Twins history, with Pedro Ramos spinning a three-hitter opposing Whitey Ford at Yankee Stadium in 1961. After Bob Allison put the Twins on the board with the first home run in team history leading off the top of the seventh, Ramos himself knocked Ford out of the game with a two-run single to center, driving in Earl Battey and Reno Bertoia en route to a 6-0 Twins win. 
    March 28, 2019
    Nick Anderson Makes MLB Debut
    Brainerd High School graduate Nick Anderson made his major league debut with the Marlins on this date in 2019, retiring the only batter he faced, stranding a runner on second to end the inning.
    Two days later, he came in and struck out all three batters he faced in the eighth inning of a 7-3 Marlins win over the Rockies. 
    Anderson was striking out batters at a pretty impressive rate right out of the gate, K’ing 27 of the first 51 batters he faced to begin his MLB career. (There were two home runs mixed in there.)

    Worth noting that the Twins had Anderson in their system, but they traded him for an infielder nobody has ever heard of prior to the 2019 season. 
    Anderson will be pitching out of the Kansas City Royals bullpen this season. 
    He is the third Brainerd alumnus to pitch in the majors, following three-time World Series Champion Bullet Joe Bush and Todd Revenig (0.00 MLB ERA). And of course Hall of Famer Charles Albert Bender was born near Brainerd in 1884. 
    Please join the conservation in the comments section below.
    Keep in touch with the Twins Almanac on Twitter and Facebook. 
  10. Like
    Karbo reacted to Tbrooker11 for a blog entry, ESPN 2024 Twins Projections   
    Let's take a look at what ESPN has the Twins Projected for stats wise. 
    Jeffers- 68-280, 39 R, 13 2B, 1 3B, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 32 BB, 87 K, 1 SB, .243/.331/.436
    Santana- 104-454, 58 R, 23 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 65 BB, 94 K, 2 SB, .229/.324/.416
    Julien- 123-494, 74 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 92 BB, 184 K, 12 SB, .249/.370/.407
    Correa- 137-516, 70 R, 28 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 61 BB, 116 K, 0 SB, .266/.345/.440
    Lewis- 128-450, 73 R, 19 2B, 0 3B, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 45 BB, 107 K, 10 SB, .284/.353/.513
    Wallner- 86-374, 55 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 59 BB, 150 K, 3 SB, .230/.356/.436
    Buxton- 86-377, 66 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 53 RBI, 39 BB, 121 K, 11 SB, .228/.308/.501
    Kepler- 110-439, 71 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 62 RBI, 49 BB, 103 K, 5 SB, .251/.330/.451
    Kirilloff- 109-415, 55 R, 20 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 39 BB, 113 K, 2 SB, .263/.338/.439
    Castro- 90-369, 58 R, 17 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 27 BB, 100 K, 25 SB, .244/.311/.379
    Margot- 92-339, 43 R, 22 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 47 RBI, 22 BB, 56 K, 9 SB, .271/.319/.392
    Farmer- 72-296, 36 R, 13 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 18 BB, 62 K, 2 SB, .243/.304/.375
    Vazquez- 66-280, 28 R, 13 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 20 BB, 57 K, 2 SB, .236/.287/.336
     
    Lopez- 14-8, 3.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 32 GS, 196 IP, 219 K, 54 BB
    Ryan- 11-7, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 30 GS, 166 IP, 196 K, 39 BB
    Ober- 11-8, 3.78 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30 GS, 169 IP, 170 K, 33 BB
    Paddack- 6-5, 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20 GS, 96 IP, 86 K, 21 BB
    Varland- 9-7, 3.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 26 GS, 142 IP, 156 K, 39 BB
     
    ESPN still has DeSclafani projected for 10 starts. They also have starts going to Canterino, Woods Richardson, Festa, and Boushley. These projections don't list Games for Batters. These numbers also seem similar to the CBS Sports projections, which seem a bit unrealistic compared to Fan Graphs. 
  11. Like
    Karbo reacted to BigJoeGun for a blog entry, Starting a new thing. Book reviews!   
    Hi everyone,
    Sorry I haven’t posted in a very long time. Everyone on here does such a good job covering the team I’ve been struggling with figuring out what could I possibly add that would be unique to the site. I haven’t found anyone on here who reviews books so that’s something I’m going to start doing. If there is someone on here who already does this I’m sorry for stealing your idea. 
    The first book I’m going to review is “Harmon Killebrew: Ultimate Slugger” by Steve Aschburner. Here’s my review:
    I thought this book was great! This is a great biography of the greatest slugger in Washington Senators/Minnesota Twins history. I thought the story of his life and career was really well done by this author. I especially loved the stories about Harmon off the field since I already knew about his playing career exploits. It made me really jealous of my wife who got to meet Harmon in real life before he passed away. Highly recommended.
    You can buy the book from Amazon here on Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Harmon-Killebrew-Ultimate-Steve-Aschburner/dp/1600787029/ref=mp_s_a_1_2?crid=3LJKIPBLX1FWA&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.1IWTgxRUrrDZSnHTyrIZNcu6C4cRlqcPI7E89o47yMHjCSanbmhj_emo84vsAVaNnhbWhJQ7O8Rhs0cqz5xlbsz6UQu4TI-dRKM6BzjJXTm8LCEhSpRbGsTjAt6_wMb5Q2tygs3oYP4fbN3PQXiMqABkUKPY5zaFdBz9Yyl6znvfZue8NpXQw0j0FwFHaYcqs3GMJSdv92_DC47NcoIMqg.FkQJ3fTkStl80fMIl2GR61DOqC5_mwMa-MYmBmHVNxA&dib_tag=se&keywords=harmon+killebrew&qid=1710444362&sprefix=%2Caps%2C332&sr=8-2
  12. Like
    Karbo reacted to LA Vikes Fan for a blog entry, Has Varland Won the 5th Starter Job? What Are the Options For DeSclafani?   
    Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance.
    Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think?
    Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?
  13. Like
    Karbo reacted to Doctor Gast for a blog entry, An "The Athletic" Article   
    I read an article from "The Athletic" that sparked a concern of mine about the health of today's pitchers. Below is the article you can read if you have a "The Athletic" subscription.
    https://theathletic.com/5325032/2024/03/08/elbow-injuries-mlb-pitchers/
    My concern is besides the extra stress that today's pitchers put on their arms with extra velo & spin, they are expected to pitch the same number of innings that those pitchers of yesteryear pitched. The article stressed reducing or even eliminating the pitches that put the most stress on the pitcher's arms. But there is no way you can put the genie back in the bottle, every year there are pitchers looking to find ways to add extra velo & spin so they can make it to the MLB & excel. A normal competitive pitcher wants to complete every game when he pitches but in today's scheme of things, that's impossible. So it's management's job to limit the pitcher (which the Twins are doing a good job, yet IMO could do a little bit better) and the fanbase not complaining for more innings putting more stress on the manager & pitcher. Ober wants to pitch 200 innings, Paddack wants to pitch 150 innings & DeSclafani wants to pitch a halfway normal innings. IMO all these expectations need to be tempered way back to protect the pitcher.
  14. Like
    Karbo reacted to Doctor Gast for a blog entry, So What Now?   
    When Pohlad dropped a bomb saying paraphrased "We aren't going after any $30MM/ yr. FA" & " We'll live where we're at". Many fans went berserk, I'm not taking sides if the Pohlads can afford to pay the money or not because I have no idea. But I do know we live in a much lower market than NY, LA & CHI. & can't compete with those teams in spending. But is spending big in FA the answer to being successful? NYY & NYM went big in FA last offseason, how did they do? Is FA the solution to all our problems? I think not. IMO FA is an inefficient way to take care of our needs with FA salaries skyrocketing every year. I'd like to look at 3 different teams that do not go big in FA yet are very productive.
    1st is Baltimore, They won the highly competitive AL East Division & are positioned to be a powerhouse for years to come. How did they do it? Much like HOU they tanked for many years & were able to get high draft picks & started to accumulate great prospects. 2nd is Tampa Bay. It's been a while since TB has had a really bad season so how have they done it? By accumulating prospects by trading off hyped players (especially SP) getting near to FA for promising young players & prospects. Another successful team that doesn't rely on FA is Atlanta. Like TB they like to trade but they trade to fortify a need & when they get a player they like to be around for a while they extend them. Can we emulate them?
    With the new anti-tanking lottery this is no longer a sure bet to build a great team, plus teams like PIT & CO have tanked for years & still are floundering. Maybe build a pitching pipeline like TB & CLE, which we have tried since Favey became GM. Many of our high-ceiling prospects never panned out & Ober (started out as mid-ceiling) is the highest of any of our prospects that have risen but we haven't been able to produce a rotation full of in-house high-level  SPs every year so we can trade them to fill weak spots in the team. Maybe we can be more proactive in trading to fill our needs and extend players like ATL? It should definitely help. 
    BAL, TB & ATL are all different but there are a couple of things that they do that are the same. They are great at player & team evaluation & development which separates them from their peers and make them successful year after year. These are areas that the Twins need to improve. CO has tanked for years & they like to throw money at their players but that doesn't do any good if they don't have good player & team evaluation & development. IMO stats like WAR favor sluggers, & any high-focus analytical team tends to focus on HRs & defense & baserunning are minimized. Drafting, developing, team & player evaluations are prioritized on HRs, the rest is ignored. Analytics are very important but we can't be lost in it.
    We been blessed with 3 high 1st round picks that were no brainers Lewis, Lee & Jenkins. Whenever we get a low 1st round draft pick we often select a big bat cOF/1B/DH (Rooker, Sabato, Larnach, & Caveco #13 was drafted as a SS but most likely will end up at 1B). I'm frustrated with the development of Wallner who has a lot of potential but it seems that all they focus on is for him to hit HRs. I'm frustrated with the development of our catchers. This priority affects us as far as our evaluation of our team needs & players' importance to the team where we hang onto players we could let go & let go of who we should keep.
    Team & player evaluation & development are very important but where ATL separates itself is that they use that evaluations to find holes in their team & then they go out & make trades that fills or upgrade in that area. We have also been fortunate with trades that fell into our laps like Lopez, Ryan, & Maeda. But once we improve our team & players evaluations of not only our team but also those teams that hold our missing pieces, I'd love to see us to be more proactive in making trades. There are so many opportunities out there once our eyes are open. The opportunities that were open early this season are pretty much closed but there'll be new opportunities & we need to be ready for them.
    I heard someone praise our FO that if Pohlad allocates X amount of dollars they will spend X amount of dollars. I can see what they are saying but I also see it as something very wasteful because if the Twins had an extra $11MM they could take another unrealistic risk on a Gallo-type that had no real need just because they had the money. Dreaming about picking up this high price FA or that high price FA isn't very feasible even before this Balley mess.
    The Chinese look at crises as an opportunity, these 2 words have the same root word. We have 2 choices stay the same & fall behind or change our priorities to be more realistic & to become more like ATL & become independent from free agency,  & become a better & more competitive team.
  15. Like
    Karbo reacted to Paul D for a blog entry, Is The Twins Salary Budget Reasonable?   
    Let’s Talk Salaries
    The Padres traded their “once in a lifetime” superstar to the Yankees for payroll relief. This in spite of drawing over 3.2M fans in 2023 (2nd in NL). The Padres 2023 payroll was $259M (per sportrac.com) and they didn’t make the playoffs. In looking forward, the Padres are currently paying Manny Machado $17M per year until 2025 and then it becomes $25M in 2026 and then $39M for the next 7 years. Fernando Tatis will make $11.7M in 2024, $20.7M in 2025 and 2026, $25.7M in 2027 and 2028, then $36.7M until 2034. Xander Bogaerts will earn $25.45M from 2024 until 2033. It is interesting to add to this horror show the fact that both Tatis and Bogaerts were signed to play shortstop and at this moment they are playing right field and 2nd base respectively. This financial model can best be explained by the saying used by Whimpy in Popeye cartoons when he said, “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today”.
    In the same boat are the Dodgers who this year signed Shohei Ohtani for 10 years at a total contract price of $700M. He will receive $2M in payroll each year until 2032 and then will be paid $68M for the next 10 years. They then signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 12 years and $325M (an average of $27M), but paying him $9.2M in 2024. And of course they traded for Tyler Glasnow and his $25M salary and quickly signed him to a lucrative contract extension. At some point, 10 years from now the Dodgers may have an extremely serious payroll problem.
    To the credit of the NY Mets, last year under Steve Cohen’s ownership they bought every toy they could find in the toy department. Half way through the year they figured out that buying the best players does not guarantee positive results. At the trade deadline they traded many of their big off season signings for prospects and this off season they decided to sit out the dance and work on improving their farm system. Sanity has visited the Mets.
    All of this brings me to the Twins. This past week Joe Pohlad made comments on local radio that seemed to hit the hometown fans the wrong way. He basically declared that the Twins would not be spending money to bringing in one of the high priced Boras Band of Five (now four). He did, however, leave some wiggle room for signing one of the lesser unsigned players who may come at a bargain rate and a short contract because of spring training already being underway.
    Being from southern New England and new to the Twins, I’m now reading many fans questioning the ownership’s commitment to putting together a team that can compete for a World Series ring. The term “Cheap Pohlad” is appearing often in comments on X (not going to say, formerly twitter), The Athletic and Twins Daily. The majority of fans believe that the team has a strong and youthful nucleus and that with the addition of a piece or two can compete for the championship. The inability of the front office to add the missing pieces is being blamed on team ownership and their frugal ways.
    To fill in my gaps in Twins history I thought that I should take a look at the team’s recent payroll and attendance figures so I can formulate my own opinion.
    The Correa Effect
     
    Year
    Payroll
    Prior Yr Attendance
    Attend. Yr
    2023
    $160M
    1,801,000
    2022
    2022
    $150M
    1,310,000
    2021
    2021
    $123M
    0
    2020
    2020
    $135M
    2,303,000
    2019
    2019
    $114M
    1,959,000
    2018
    2018
    $110M
    2,051,000
    2017
    2017
    $104M
    1,964,000
    2016
     
    2017 to 2019 was largely status quo. The attendance fluctuated by no more than 100,000 each year and the payroll showed inflationary increases. No huge surprises to their overall payroll plans.
    2020 showed an 18.4% increase based on a 17.6% increase in attendance. Unfortunately 2020 was the Covid season where spectators were not allowed in the ball park, but players still needed to be paid according to their contract terms. I don’t know if ownership was covered by business interruption insurance or if they were stuck with a year of normal expenses (less many game day expenses) with no attendance revenue.
    2021 - Probably as a reaction to the Covid season the payroll dropped by $12M for the 2021 season.
    2022 – I will call this the Correa Factor. The Twins had a unique opportunity to sign one of baseball’s elites to a 3 year/$105M contract. The contract contained opt outs after each year, so unless Correa was to experience a major injury (which should have been covered by insurance), it was a 1 year/$35M contract. This transaction was probably unforeseen, but the budget was increased by $27M to make it happen. Chances are that the payroll budget may have been reduced because the attendance for the 2021 season only reached 1,310,000, far lower than previous seasons.
    2023 – I will call this the Correa Factor II. There was probably little likelihood of Correa having a 2nd season with the Twins, but a funny thing happened, he fell back into their laps when the Giants and Mets were spooked by his physical. The Twins had an opportunity to take him back at a slightly lower rate and a reasonable 6 year term (with team options after that). They couldn’t reduce the budget after this signing so they ended up increasing the payroll from $150M to $160M. Attendance increased by 491,000, but still fell below the 2017-2019 norm.
    2024 – They have been operating with a payroll bloated by the Correa double signings, were losing $7-$8M in TV Revenue, attendance had not bounced back to earlier amounts, and they needed to “right size” the budget.
    I’ve used the term “right size” frequently in my career as a CFO. The term simply means to have the right number of employees (or payroll) for the amount of sales you are realizing. If your sales decrease from one year to the next you are probably going to look at a layoff or not replacing employees who leave. You match your loss of revenue with a reduction in expenses to keep your bottom line stable.
    After all of this background, the Twins are basically saying that after a payroll that has increased by opportunity, not additional revenues, that they need to bring it back to an amount that is consistent with the attendance (and TV revenue) they are generating. That largely brings them back to the 2017-2019 days.
    I think that their approach is fiscally reasonable and responsible. Let’s admit it, we were warned early in the off-season that this was going to be a reality. Last week it became cast in stone. However, let’s look at the bright side. There is still wiggle room for a spring training signing to round out the roster, just not one of the big boys.
    Cost Per Attendee
    To further evaluate the Twins position I decided to compare Payroll to Attendance. I did an analysis of the 2023 attendance for each team compared to their 2023 payroll. The team with the highest payroll for 2023 was the NY Mets and they were ranked 14th in total attendance. They ended up paying their players $137 for each person who attended a game. Second was the White Sox who had the 15th highest payroll but the 24th highest attendance. They ended up paying $108 for each person. The rest of the top 10 were the Yankees at $85, the Angels at $80, the Phillies at $80, the Marlins at $79, the Twins at $78, the Rangers at $77, the Padres at $76 and the Tigers at $76. The Twins ended up in 7th place among the 30 teams. The overall average was $68 for each fan attending. The team that spend the least on payroll compared to attendance were the Orioles at $31.
    Some teams can alleviate some of this high cost per attendee because of the ticket prices they charge. A cost to the Mets of $137 per person or the Yankees at $85 can be offset by having higher ticket prices than a team like the Twins or Marlins. It is possible that when this payroll cost per attendee is adjusted by average ticket price, that the Twins may climb up the ladder and be closer to the top ranking.
    My Summary or Conclusion (Finally)
    My hope for the Twins is that as the trade deadline approaches that we will be able to pickup a premium pitcher to round out our playoff roster. I have complete confidence in ownership that this will happen if the right player and the right deal comes along. They have already opened up for purse strings for Carlos Correa. Strong attendance will be very helpful.
    As far as how they handle financial management, I believe paring back payroll and not taking on another $30M per year plunge is perfectly understandable. Their 2023 attendance of 1,974,000 puts them right back to the 2017-2019 years when the team payroll was around $110M. With a $126M payroll for 2024 and a loss of $7M in broadcast fees, it seems like a reasonable budget. Hopefully attendance will increase and there will be a willingness to spend at the trade deadline for any missing pieces.
    I am not a Pohlad Family “fan boy”, but I feel that their approach is fiscally sound. While there are teams spending money like drunken sailors, the majority are still living within their means and looking at their front office to make personnel moves that will make a difference. Their standing as 7th when comparing payroll to attendance tells me that they are providing adequate funding to support the team. I can’t justify joining “Cheap Pohlad Club”.
  16. Like
    Karbo reacted to AidanAver for a blog entry, Let’s Re-Do the Twins’ Offseason   
    A lot has been said about the Twins’ offseason, especially regarding comments made by members of ownership and those in baseball operations about the payroll decreasing.
     Some frustration, on one hand, is warranted considering the optics that inevitably surround explicitly telling fans that payroll will decrease immediately after the most successful season in the past 20 years. However, with how the roster is constructed, spending a lot of money in free agency never seemed likely. The Twins have a lot of young talent under team control for a significant amount of time, including the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran just to name a few. Having that level of talent making pre-arbitration or arbitration one numbers is just naturally conducive to having a lower payroll, and it never made sense to spend for players to play positions that are already filled with those young talents. That being said, there is some room for spending during the 2024 offseason. So, let’s go back in time to November 2nd, 2023, and re-do the Twins’ Offseason.
    I am going to constrain myself to some rules for this thought exercise. The first rule is that I am going to be as realistic as possible so unfortunately, Shohei Ohtani: you are not a Twin. My second rule is that for any players that have already been signed, I will be using their real-world contracts here. For example, the San Francisco Giants signed outfielder Jorge Soler to a 3-year, $42 million contract. Therefore, if I were to sign him to the Twins, it would have to be for 3 years and $42 million. This, again, is to ensure as much realism as possible for my exercise. With that out of the way, let’s get started.
    1.   LHP Shōta Imanaga (4-Years, $53 Million)
         With Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both being free agents, the Twins have a need to fill in the rotation. In 2023, Sonny and Kenta contributed 6.8 fWAR to the team. Maeda’s 1.5 fWAR contribution can be replaced in-house by Chris Paddack’s full return to the rotation. FanGraphs’ projections system projects the 50th percentile outcome for Paddack’s 2024 to be worth about 2.1 fWAR. That still leaves 4.7 fWAR to be replaced. Another portion of that will be filled by the progression in the young careers of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as they (hopefully) have healthier and better seasons when they enter their 3rd full year of service time. That still leaves room to fill with an outside addition, because resigning Sonny Gray never made sense as Sonny Gray himself is unlikely to replicate his 2023 season and giving 2024 Sonny Gray 3 years and $75 million never made sense due to the very likely regression of the aging pitcher. This was made more apparent by the disparity between his expected 2023 ERA, which was calculated by Statcast using his batted ball data, falling at 3.66, and his actual 2.79 ERA. While trading for a starting pitcher with control makes the most sense, teams with starters to move like Milwaukee and Miami seem unlikely to move anyone.
         This brings us to Shōta Imanaga, the 30-year-old left-hander out of NPB’s Yokohama Baystars. The 5 '10 pitcher pitched to a 2.80 ERA in 148 IP while pitching to a 10.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in NPB action. He led World Baseball Classic pitchers in Stuff+, a measurement of the movement and velocity of pitchers. This was off the back of his 4-Seam Fastball that, while it sits in the low 90s, has nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break, meaning most batters swing under the pitch expecting it to drop more than it does. To compare, Joe Ryan’s fastball averages 17 inches of induced vertical break, helping him strike out an absurd 29.3% of his batters faced. Imanaga profiles to have a fastball with a very similar effect, while also having better control than Ryan does with his fastball. Imanaga backs up his fastball with a very versatile arsenal, common for Japanese pitchers. He also throws a sweeper, a traditional slider, a splitter, and throws in a curveball, cutter, and changeup for fun. The Japanese pitcher’s fastball-slider combo is something that the Twins have valued in their pitchers and would allow him to fit right into the Twins’ rotation. In real life, Imanaga signed with the Chicago Cubs for 4-years and $53 million with player options in 2026 and 2027 and a club option in 2028, bringing the total potential value of the deal to $80 million, something the Twins could afford, especially with the year-to-year flexibility this contract gives the player and team.
         Some would point to the Twins’ failure in previous NPB dealings such as Tsuyoshi Nishioka as a reason the Twins should be hesitant to sign NPB talent. However, pitchers transitioning from NPB to MLB have a much better track record than hitters such as Nishioka. The current Falvey-led front office is also radically different from the Terry Ryan-led regime that last gave contracts to NPB talent. Shōta Imanaga looks to be a very good starting pitcher in MLB and one that could absolutely contribute to the Minnesota Twins’ rotation.
    2.   1B Rhys Hoskins (2- Years, $34 million)
         Perhaps the Twins’ biggest holes throughout the 2023 season was their weaknesses against left-handed pitching and an inability to get consistent value out of their first basemen. The Twins hit a league average 100 WRC+ against LHP compared to a 111 WRC+ against RHP, ranked 5th in MLB. While Alex Kirilloff had a good 2023, he also showcased an inability to hit left-handed pitching, and his health remains a question. After missing most of 2023, Jose Miranda also needs to reestablish himself as a viable option for the Twins. A great way to kill both of those birds would be to sign the former Phillies’ first baseman: Rhys Hoskins. Though Hoskins missed all of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in Spring Training, he had a potent 2022 where he hit a .794 OPS (123 OPS+) with 30 home runs. Importantly, he had a .945 OPS (163 OPS+) in 174 PAs against left-handed hitting. While Hoskins’ defense is not very good, posting -6 Outs Above Average in 2022, however, 1B is the least significant defensive position. As long as whoever plays there can catch a seed from Carlos Correa, it’ll do.
         In real life, the slugger signed with the Milwaukee Brewers for two years and $34 million. The deal includes an opt-out after the first year, as well as a mutual option for a third year that would raise the total value to $48 million. A right-handed hitter was the Twins’ biggest need going into this offseason, and with that price and fit, Rhys Hoskins is likely the best option the Twins could have had.
         This is the one that gets to me personally; if Rhys had any interest in playing for the Twins with the same price and contract structure, that is a deal that the front office should absolutely have pounced on and one that the Twins could end up regretting.
    3.   What I’d Keep
         The Twins did work to improve the roster in real life, and there is plenty that I would replicate in this scenario. The Twins project to have one of the strongest bullpens in all of baseball for 2024, much of which is thanks to moves made this offseason.
         In this universe, I would replicate the Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon trades, Although these two were fan favorites, they unfortunately did not have guaranteed roles on the 2024 roster with the emergence of Edouard Julien and Willi Castro. The combined return of Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Steven Okert as well as borderline top-100 prospect Gabriel Gonzalez do enough to improve the bullpen, depth, and farm system to justify moving Polanco and Gordon to Seattle and Miami respectively.
         The other move I would replicate is the Jay Jackson signing. Jay Jackson is an intriguing arm with a plus slider and fastball. He was signed for 1 year and $1.3 million with a club option that can raise the total value to 2 years and $5.45 million. For that low of a price, there is very little that can happen that can cause the Twins to regret this move.
         As Rhys Hoskins is a Twin in this alternate universe, there is no role for Carlos Santana to be on the roster, so that deal won’t be replicated.
     
    For the first year in what feels like forever, the Twins came into the off-season looking very competitive and only requiring tweaks to the roster to be able to continue to compete. With the additions of Shōta Imanaga and Rhys Hoskins, the Twins could solidify themselves as powerhouses in the AL.
    That being said, the Twins real-life roster looks to be very good on the backs of Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton. So, even if this offseason was a frustrating one, enjoy this upcoming summer, as it looks to be one of the most fun ones in recent memory.
     
  17. Like
    Karbo reacted to jharaldson for a blog entry, What Ever Happened to 50% of Revenue for Payroll?   
    Joe Pohald recently stated that he and his family are “just trying to right-size our business.” when he was asked about the $120M payroll for 2024, which is ranked 20 out of the 30 teams.  When I think of the term “right-sizing”, I think of the promise that was made when we approved and funded the stadium for the Twins.  The promise that the Pohlad family made in an 08/13/2008 Star Tribune article called “TWIN CITIES SPORTS OWNERS: the pohlads, minnesota twins BAND OF BROTHERS EXTENDS A LEGACY”

    In another 2008 article Dave St. Peter stated:

    Are the Twins in the process of “right-sizing” their payroll of $120M to match revenue of $240M?  That is a laughable suggestion but let’s back that up with facts.  We know as a fact from the last collective bargaining agreement that all teams get $200 million in revenue sharing.  In addition, it is widely believed that the Twins are getting $40 million+ this year from BSN.  So, without lifting a finger, playing a game, or even having a second to lie to its fans the Twins are making enough revenue to make the 50% rule work for the current payroll.
    What might a team make beyond the revenue sharing and TV deal?  We can estimate that by looking at the Braves and see they made $528 million in 2023 due to their public disclosures as part of Liberty Media.  We also know that the Braves TV Deal is for $68 million a year so if you subtract that and the $200 million in revenue sharing you get $260 million in stadium, licensing, merchandise, etc… revenue.  With the Twin Cities metro area roughly being 60% the size of the Braves let’s assume that the Twins can only generate 60% of the same baseball revenue ($260*60%=$156 million).  The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll.  

    There is no other way to look at this other than a broken promise made to taxpayers and a money grab by some Nepo-babies.
     
  18. Like
    Karbo reacted to Doctor Gast for a blog entry, WAR! HAH! What is it good for?   
    WAR, what is it? I know it's wins above replacement but what does that mean? How do they come up with that? And what formula do they use? WAR is a stat that drives Fantasy Baseball &  analytical baseball; helps us evaluate individuals, teams & even determine HOF inductees. I've heard that most HOF voters often use total WAR to determine who to vote for unless they have some bias. But is WAR really the end-all means to evaluate a player's worth?
    Let's look at catching. Catchers often sacrifice themselves to benefit the team, put a lot of time into evaluating hitters, and getting to know their pitchers, there's a lot of intangibles in being a catcher that are not calculated into WAR. IMO catching is the most important defensive position in baseball. They're in every play, stabilize the rotation & command the defense. But they haven't been fairly represented in the HOF lately. Why is that? It's because WAR is the standard & what affects WAR is HRs, defense is minimized & the intangibles are not considered.
    Let me use a case in point, Yadier Molina. Yadi, you probably heard is a very good catcher but until you watch him play you can't really appreciate how elite he really is. Yet there are many that question his credentials of becoming a HOFer, because his WAR isn't high enough (his slugging % is not high enough although his BA is above average, especially for a catcher). Molina put in 19 yrs, all in STL catching every year. The lowest place they finished was once in 4th place yet they had a 89-79 record, during most of those years, STL made it to the postseason, won the NLC 4Xs going to the World Series 4Xs & winning the World Series 2Xs. Most of those years they were mainly considered a pitching/ defense type team. He won 9 GGs, 4 platnium gloves & 10 AS selections.
    Some headlines of the Cards downfall last season blamed "the breakdown of the rotation" others "lack of leadership" yet more " poor defense"  & "catching". I think they could all be summed up with "no Molina". Molina stabilized the rotation, he was a leader, he commanded the defense & had great defensive stats of CS% & picking off runners that digressed after he left. Willson Contreras was a top 10 catcher, the most consistant hitting catcher in MLB. But STL pitchers refused to pitch to him in the beginning, Not because he was a terrible pitch caller (he was probably average) or was terrible in handling the pitchers it was because he wasn't Yadi. Molina had an incredible feel for the game, he knew what was going on all time. He knew when to change up the pich calling, pick off runners, when a pitcher should come out etc.
    Joe Mauer deservingly was inducted into the HOF because he was the GOAT MLB hitting catcher, yet all MVP Mauer's years in MN, despite MN's greatest postseason SPs duo of Santana & Liriano, MVP Morneau, (CF)Hunter, Cuddyer plus others never had post season success. If I wasn't such a great fan of our honorable hometown hero Mauer & if I had choice between 15 years of Mauer (55.2 WAR) or 19 years of Molina (44.1 WAR), I'd pick Molina.
    Now I'm not here to start a Molina for HOF campaign. & most certainly not start an anti-Mauer platform (I strongly denounce that) this has nothing to do about either. I'm here to show how unfair WAR is to exclusively evalute a player. Where hitting HRs raises WAR means everything & SOs & defense means very little.
     
  19. Like
    Karbo reacted to Paul D for a blog entry, Budgeting in Baseball   
    I read today that a lot of fans are annoyed at the Twins ownership because they are unwilling to take on additional salaries in order to increase their chances of winning a World Series.
    As a retired CFO of a $14M business with 150 employees, I can vouch for the sanctity of an annual budget.
    Preparing a budget takes great knowledge of your business. You need individuals who can anticipate what the businesses expenses for the next year will be. That includes taking into consideration what the cost of utilities, insurance, employee healthcare, the raises you would like to give to your employees, hot dogs and beer and other inflationary increases will be.
    When you have created an expense budget (not including player costs), you should then work out your revenue budget. Here you will estimate what you believe are the expected revenues from ticket sales, concessions, TV revenue, etc. When creating these estimates it is important to budget conservatively. A good budget will contain income estimates that are attainable. Additionally your expenses should be budgeted accurately with extra funds built in just in case there are unexpected obligations.
    You will now have a revenue budget and an expense budget, still to come are your team’s salaries and benefits, and the organization’s profit goal. The basic format becomes:
    +Revenue
    -Expenses
    =Net Income
    -Player Compensation
    =Profit
    Now let’s throw in some numbers -
    $500,000,000 – Revenue
    -$300,000,000 – Expenses
    $200,000,000 – Net Income
    $ x,xxx,xxx – Player Compensation
    $ 50,000,000 – Budget Profit
    In order to balance out the budget Player Compensation would be $150,000,000.
    This is what the Twins administration will go through every year when determining how much money they should allocate for players salaries.
    What can change the player budget? A couple of things can happen: 1) ownership can decide that rather than having a return on their investment (profit) of $50,000,000, they will only expect $25,000,000. This can afford them an opportunity to allocate additional budget dollars to player salaries, or 2) they can review their original budget data and determine that some expenses may end up being greater or less than they had originally thought, this difference (which can be a plus or minus) can be used to add or subtract from player salaries, or 3) they can review the revenue budget and make changes to the player budget based on getting more or less than expected. A good example is getting less TV Revenue. A loss of $15,000,000 from Bally gets adjusted by lowering the player budget by the same $15,000,000. Of course it could happen that ticket sales are strong and halfway through the year they feel that ticket sales will be $10,000,000 over what they budgeted. In this case player salaries will have additional funds to use to make changes at the trade deadline.
    Naturally, as a fan, I would like an unlimited player salary budget. But as an accountant, I understand that a sound business is based on profitability. Businesses that consistently lose money will eventually run into financial difficulties. When this happens most fans will say, why doesn’t ownership throw in additional cash flow to help out the business. But the whole idea of owning a business is to make an annual profit and to built up the equity in the team so that one day in the future, you can sell the team for a nice profit.
    True most baseball teams are owned by people with significant personal wealth, but they are limited to how much they would be willing to lose of their wealth in order for the team to succeed.
    There are only so many Steve Cohen’s and George Steinbrenner’s and there are a lot of owners who need the team to be profitable in order for them to succeed.
    I think the Pohlad’s are wise to operate the Twins as a business and not a hobby and it is wise to hold the line on spending to what the business can afford.
    This is a very simple example is only meant as an aid to showing the complicated process of putting together an annual budget and how teams may determine what they can spend on players.
     
    I am not taking a side in discussions, only pointing out the importance of a business preparing a budget and trying to maintain financial sanity.
  20. Like
    Karbo reacted to AidanAver for a blog entry, Where In The World is Connor Prielipp?   
    The second pick for the Minnesota Twins in the 2022 draft was the left-handed flame thrower out of Alabama named Connor Prielipp. The Twin's Front Office was excited to be able to draft Prielipp 48th overall, and it showed with the Twins going over slot value and handing Prielipp a $1.825 million signing bonus. Since then, it appears that Connor Prielipp and his devastating fastball-slider mix have fallen off the face of the Earth, and so we must ask… Where in the world is Connor Prielipp? To answer this question, first, we must examine where Prielipp came from before he joined the Twins Organization.
    Prielipp arrived at the University of Alabama in 2020 after being ranked as the top left-handed pitcher and number two overall player out of the state of Wisconsin by Perfect Game USA. He backed up his highly touted prep status by becoming the first Freshman to pitch Opening Day for Alabama since Taylor Guilbeau started Opening Day for the Crimson Tide in 2012. Prielipp earned the win that day against my Northeastern Huskies, which was only the start of a magnificent Freshman campaign. Prielipp’s COVID shortened 2020 went to the tune of a 0.00 ERA in 21.0 IP across 4 starts. He struck out 35 batters compared to only 9 walks, and perhaps most impressively: gave up only 5 hits all year, leading to a 0.52 WHIP, lowest in the SEC among qualified pitchers. 
    After his incredible 2020, Prielipp was listed as the number 4 pitcher on Baseball America’s College top 150 list for the 2021 season, as well as being named a Preseason All-SEC team member, a First Team Preseason All-American by practically every major publication for college baseball, and was listed on the Golden Spikes Award Preseason Watch List by USA Baseball. The hype surrounding Prielipp extended beyond the realm of college baseball, as many MLB Draft evaluators pegged Prielipp as a potential 1st overall pick in a stacked 2022 draft class that included Jackson Holliday, Druw Jones, and fellow Twin and potential 1st overall pick Brooks Lee. Prielipp again earned the Opening Day nod for the Tide in 2021 and pitched 5 shutout innings against McNeese, picking up 8 strikeouts and only 1 walk in a 10-6 win over the Cowboys. Unfortunately, this is where the wheels begin to fall off for Prielipp’s journey. In Prielipp’s start against McNeese, it had turned out that he had suffered from an elbow injury. Prielipp took a two-month recovery to see if the elbow could heal on its own and returned to pitch one inning against Auburn. However, the break had not fully healed his elbow and Prielipp missed another month before making an appearance against LSU, which would end up being Prielipp’s final appearance in college baseball as he opted for Tommy John surgery which ended his 2021 and his 2022 seasons. 
    Connor Prielipp’s college career ended with an absurd 0.97 ERA, 15.1 K/9, and a 2.25 BB/9. Granted this is all with the caveat of only pitching 28 innings in his time at Tuscaloosa. However, his 95-mph fastball paired with his plus-plus slider still played, as he was able to prove himself in a post-surgery bullpen in front of MLB scouts before the 2022 MLB Draft. This bullpen and Prielipp’s prior pedigree convinced the Twins that the upside Prielipp had coming into 2021 was still there, leading to the Twins selecting Prielipp with the 48th pick in the 2022 Draft. 
    As is the norm with most drafted pitchers, Prielipp did not make an in-game appearance in pro ball in 2022, instead, the Twins were careful with him and his surgically repaired elbow, only allowing him to throw in the Instructional League. 
    Once Prielipp arrived at Spring Training in 2023, he once again blew the Twins staff away with his raw stuff. He showcased the same fastball and slider but also showed a low 80s changeup that he did not showcase often at Alabama. After impressing in the spring, Prielipp made his professional debut with High-A Cedar Rapids on April 9th, 2023, against Peoria. The Twins once again wanting to be careful with Prielipp’s arm limited him to a 4-inning outing in which he gave up 3 earned runs, struck out 3 batters, and walked another 2. After this start, the Twins placed Prielipp on the 7-Day IL with arm soreness and inflammation. At the time the Front Office played down any concerns that they might have had with this injury, believing that Prielipp’s arm would respond well to rest. After a month-long absence, Prielipp returned in June to make a rehab start with the FCL Twins. Prielipp’s rehab start lasted 2.2 innings in which he allowed 2 earned runs, struck out 4 batters, and walked 2. After his rehab start, Prielipp and the Twins made the decision to operate on his elbow yet again. On July 14th, 2023, Prielipp had an internal brace placed in his left elbow by Dr. Keith Meister. This can be perceived as good news as this is a less invasive procedure than traditional Tommy John, which usually requires a less intensive, albeit lengthy rehab. 
    Now that we know where Prielipp came from, where do we go from here? Prielipp projects to return from surgery this summer, yet, with less than 40 innings pitched in the last 4 years, it is difficult to project where Prielipp will go from here. However, MLB Pipeline has Prielipp ranked as the 7th prospect in the Twins Organization, and as the 3rd highest pitcher in the organization, ahead of arms like David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Matt Canterino. The reasoning for this is quite simple: Connor Prielipp’s slider is the best pitch the Twins have in their farm system. MLB Pipeline has it ranked as a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. The pitch’s sharp vertical movement paired with the ability to touch 90mph on it, and showing that he can throw it consistently for strikes means it is a lethal tool for the left-hander. Prielipp showed the Twins that the pitch was still there after his first operation both in pre-draft workouts and later in 2023 Spring Training. The key to Prielipp’s success is showing that the pitch is still there after his second operation. If Prielipp returns from his surgery and can use his slider as he was able to in the past, he could likely become a key cog for the Twins’ rotation plans.
    Prielipp looks to be ready for MLB action in around 2026, where he could be a monster out of the bullpen or a potential frontline starter. The Twins’ obvious priority is to get a healthy season of development from Prielipp, but it should not shock anyone if they decide to build Prielipp up as a starter as they currently are with another prospect with monster stuff and injury concerns: Matt Canterino. If all goes right for Prielipp in his rehab and development, the Twins could have another feather in their cap from their already very impressive 2022 pitching draft class. 
  21. Like
    Karbo reacted to Adam Neisen for a blog entry, Brock Stewart: The Data Behind His Success   
    From DFA’d to premier setup man in less than four years, Brock Stewart has one of the best stories in baseball and is poised to play a big role on the 2024 Twins. 
    In 2019, Stewart was DFA’d by the Dodgers before being picked up by the Blue Jays. Stewart only threw 21 innings with the Blue Jays but his time there was the worst of his career. He pitched to a 55 ERA+ along with a career low in K/9 at 6.6. Furthermore, his fastball sat at a middling 91 MPH. As a result, he was once again DFA’d. After a lost season in 2020 due to covid, Stewart looked to get back on the mound but was hit by a slew of elbow injuries and was sidelined for a year. Now as a 30 year old, he was running out of options to be able to keep pitching and he turned to Tread Athletics to give him another shot.
    Tread is a sports performance center located in North Carolina that specializes in using advanced data to highlight weaknesses and improve all aspects of a pitcher's game. While at Tread, Stewart focused on two things: change his slider to a sweeper and add a cutter to his repertoire. Within months of working at Tread, he hit a new best of 96 MPH on his fastball.
    Stewart was eventually signed to a minor league deal with the Twins after seeing his new pitch mix and mechanics he developed while at Tread. On April 27th 2023, Stewart made his Twins debut pitching two scoreless against the Royals. Stewart pitched only 27 innings in 2023 but they were dominant. He allowed only 2 earned runs and had a .65 ERA while striking out 12.7/9.
    When looking even deeper into some of his pitches, you can truly see his effectiveness. He throws his fastball the most out of any of his pitches at 39% and for good reason. Compared to his pre-Tread fastball, the average MPH has bumped over 6 MPH to 97.3. He is able to generate a high spin rate of 2600 which gives him a well above average Bauer Unit score of 26.76 (league average is 24). On top of his high spin rate, the spin efficiency is great as well at 82%. For comparison, an average MLB 2-seamer has a 2150 spin rate and a spin efficiency in the range of 75-100%. This means that Stewart has the spin profile of a 2-seamer with the spin rate of an electric 4-seamer. The result of this is a xwhiff+ score of 132, above the likes of dominant pitchers such as Spencer Strider and Alexis Diaz.
    The biggest focus during his time at Tread was the development of a new sweeper and it transformed his pitch mix. Prior to his injuries, Stewart was throwing a more traditional gyro slider which only generated 4.7 inches of horizontal movement. His sweeper that he showed off in 2023 has a whopping 15.6. Compared to his 2018 slider, the opponent’s xBA and hard hit% dropped off substantially when facing this sweeper. This pitch was developed as a more effective way to get righty batters out and it did just that. He threw the sweeper to righties 71% of the time and had a stuff+ score of 132 when facing same handed hitters.
    The final of his three main pitches is the cutter, another pitch he developed at tread. The cutter acts as a medium between the fastball and sweeper at an average of 93.3 MPH and 2.3 inches of horizontal movement but it is just as effective. Opponents batted a mere .071 against it and he had his highest put away% of 40% while using the cutter. Even the expected stats back up the dominance of the pitch with a xSLG of only .231.
    When looking at the 2024 Twins outlook, the bullpen is slated to be the biggest bright spot of the team and a full season of Brock Stewart is massive to the success of the pen overall. It may be easy to write off his 2023 season as something like a fluke due to the low innings count but all underlying numbers and pitch data suggest otherwise. 
    Finally, Stewart’s story shows the increasing prevalence and usefulness of advanced data and pitch tracking. Sports centers such as Tread and Driveline are becoming increasingly popular as it allows athletes to use data they normally wouldn’t be able to see to fully tap into their abilities. It also gives MLB teams further insight and aids them in making potentially multi-million dollar deals. Without them, the Twins would have never signed Brock Stewart who looks to be one of the biggest factors of a Twins team that is poised to run it back in the playoffs.
  22. Like
    Karbo reacted to Doc Munson for a blog entry, Twins best move?... sit and wait   
    We are at the point of the offseason, with the most romantic day of the year (Pitchers and Catchers reporting on the 14th), where BIG trades usually do not happen, teams are starting to find peace with their rosters. There are still a couple name starters out there, but I dont see the Twins singing a Montgomery or a Snell. The Twins are in a decent enough position where we do not have to make any rash moves, The Twins FO should definitely be plotting and laying groundwork, but never make a move until you have to. We do not need to secure a "playoff starter"  because it is not the playoffs.
    The Twins have the luxury of being in the AL Central. We do not have to constantly load up like the AL East teams. Look at the AL East... Boston will be horrid but the other 4 could all win the division, therefore they all have to make aggressive moves in advance. The AL West is a 2 team juggernaut with Houston and Texas. Seattle fancies themselves players but who knows.
    The Al Central?? not so much.  The White Sox are in full blown rebuild (again) mode. KC COULD eventually be good as they have some decent pieces but still not yet. Detroit and Cleveland? well they have some intriguing pieces each, but this is not the Yanks, Jays, Rays, and O's by any stretch.
    All of this is self evident. we do not need a "playoff starter" until the playoffs, and we should have a great chance at the division without an addition. Assuming Health for Correa, he will be much improved, Royce I do not see a regression. Buxton (I assume the NOT healthy, and we won without him last year, so even with him at replacement level we should be able to win again. We do not have to worry about the health of Kirilloff due to the addition of Santana who is rock solid, which means anything Kirilloff gives us (which could be significant if healthy) is just a plus. IF Wallner and Julien only show a SLIGHT regression, we still win the division with what we have.
    Why sacrifice the  young talent it will take to get the "playoff starter" until we know we are going to need one? BUT, lets be redy to pounce, and pounce early when the time is right.
    The time and the team could come early.
    Miami has the arms we want the trouble is after a WC appearance, they have the elusions of playoffs n their heads again which will not happen. Last year Philly started out HORRID!!! before coming on in the second half, that will not happen this year, they are a better team, Atlanta is Atlanta. Mets and Washington will both be nothing burgers, but Miami is pricing in perfection if they think they will be in the playoffs again. they are 3rd best at best n their division. which puts them  in WC chase again. Cinci and ST Luois are both better teams than them, the Dodgers are a gimmee, which means they are fighting with a tough Arizona team and a still stacked Padres team.
    How quickly could a white flag be raised in Miami? Well lets take a look at their  schedule out the gate. After gettign 7 against Pittsburgh and Angels to start the season they have 3 against STL, Yankees, 2 series with Atlanta, the Cubs, and Giants.  By Late May or Early June Miami coudl be in position to start looking at flipping some starters for young quality prospects. SO Why move now?  Sit and wait, lay the groundwork for a June or even Early July trade where we send some high quality prospects to Miami for a high quality, controllable "playoff starter" 
     
    Until then, simply carry on.
     
     
  23. Like
    Karbo reacted to stringer bell for a blog entry, More Thoughts--Super Bowl Edition   
    TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well.
    Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. 
    Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably.
    Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season. 
     
  24. Like
    Karbo reacted to NishiokaStan for a blog entry, The 2024 Fates of the "Forgotten Twins"   
    Baseball rosters are big. They are also constantly shuffling, and sometimes players can find themselves lost in this shuffle. At times this can be chalked up to their role as a journeyman, placeholder kind of player. They’re a warm body for two weeks until the guy they replaced comes back, then they slip into the void. Still sad, but unavoidable in this business. Other times though, players who were once thought to be building blocks with bright futures ahead of them can lose their footing and slip into the roster shuffle malaise.
    In 2023, three promising young Twins players experienced that slip. Jorge Alcala, once firmly in the late-inning mix of the bullpen, continued his multi-year battle with injuries. Nick Gordon tried to follow up an encouraging season, only to fracture his right shin in May and miss the rest of the year. Finally, perhaps most surprising was Jose Miranda, who turned from a shooting star in 2023 into a falling meteorite in 2024.
    With the Twins being a contending team on the upswing, competition for roster spots is bound to be fierce this season. Which of these three players will make the strongest argument for playing time and muster a role to impact the team in 2024? To find out, let’s delve a bit further into each of their cases.
    Jorge Alcala

    The potential is clear to see when watching Jorge Alcala. The 28-year-old righty mixes a mid-to-high 90s fastball with a power slider to produce a fiery pitcher’s cocktail. Unfortunately, Twins fans haven’t had much opportunity to see him in recent years. Injuries to his right elbow and forearm have conspired to limit him to 19 ⅔ innings the past two seasons.
    When healthy, Alcala has been effective, though perhaps a step away from a dominant force on the mound. Combining the shortened 2020 season with 2021, his only healthy full season in the majors, Alcala produced a 3.55 ERA in 83 ⅔ innings. His FIP, which tries to eliminate the influence of defensive quality from ERA, sits closer to 4.00 in that stretch. This is largely thanks to a penchant for strikeouts that is respectable, but a step below the standard that today’s late-inning relievers have set (88 Ks in that time). Additionally, Alcala’s pitch mix leaves him few answers for left-handed batters, who have managed an .803 OPS against him in his career.
    Entering 2024, the first question Alcala will have to answer is health. Should he finally be able to hold down a firm spot in the Twins bullpen again, the next question will be where that spot lies, especially with the recent major league additions of Josh Staumont and Jay Jackson. If he returns to his career norms, he will likely find himself behind the late-inning trio of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart. Alcala would be an asset in middle relief, however, and could keep the Twins in close games through the middle innings when starters are unable to pitch deep. All of this feels especially speculative until Alcala shakes his arm free of ailments.
    Nick Gordon

    Nick Gordon will have been racing to forget his 2023 season. The utilityman carried a putrid .185 OBP and .503 OPS into mid-May, before fracturing his shin and being shut down for the year. While last season was painful from beginning to end, he doesn’t need to look too far in the past for his bright spot. As the Twins floundered through 2022, Gordon found a spark of power in his bat that many in the game never saw coming. Through mechanical tweaks, he maximized the strength in his 6’0”, 160-pound frame and used it to produce a .427 slugging percentage and a .743 OPS, 11 percent better than the league average hitter.
    The makeover of his bat combined with his ability to play 2nd base and all over the outfield made Gordon a revelation in 2022. His willingness to take on those different positions revealed another of his strengths, one that has been consistent throughout Gordon’s career: his attitude. The former 5th overall pick did not follow a prodigy’s path to the major leagues. Through up-and-down seasons in the minors, Gordon battled gastrointestinal issues for years that made it hard to put on weight or even eat a sustainable diet. He also contracted Covid-19 during the 2020 season. Through it all he carried a smile and an infectiousness that his teammates adored, just as he did through last year’s trials. Just look back at the Twins highlights from 2023 and count the times you spot Gordon on the top step of the dugout, beaming his signature smile and waving his limbs around in unbridled joy. 
    It seems the energy he brings to the clubhouse will never be absent, and will always keep Twins players, staff, and fans firmly on his side. This year, it will be up to Gordon to rediscover his 2022 form that took him from clubhouse MVP to on-field contributor. If he can, he should find a utility role on the Twins bench at minimum, with some sustained starting time likely in the event of injuries. After he spent 2023 being his teammates’ biggest fan, Twins Territory is hoping they can once again celebrate Nick Gordon in 2024.
    Jose Miranda

    The tales of Nick Gordon and Jose Miranda share many similarities. Miranda grinded his way through the minors to earn his shot with the big league club, and when he got his first full-season look at the majors he exceeded expectations, finishing 2022 with a .268/.325/.426 line. He entered 2023 primed to build on his encouraging debut, but battled a shoulder injury as his numbers plummeted to the tune of a .566 OPS. A crucial difference: Miranda regained health in time to play in 39 games with the AAA St. Paul Saints, though this stretch did little to assuage concerns. Miranda was only able to muster a .686 OPS with just 3 HRs, a worrying reminder of his pre-2021 breakout profile, a slap hitter with little over-the-fence impact.
    Still, injuries can wreak all kinds of havoc, especially on young players. Optimism persists among Twins officials and fans that Miranda can be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Twins, even as their lineup becomes crowded with young talent. Even this year, a role seemed to exist for Miranda as the right-sided half of a 1B platoon with Alex Kiriloff, who carries injury concerns of his own.
    Then, it was announced that the Twins had signed veteran 1B Carlos Santana to a 1-year, $5.25 million dollar contract. Santana is a switch-hitter, but as he’s aged he has become a much better hitter from the right side. He is also a clear step-up from Miranda defensively, as last time Miranda was playing 1B in the majors he looked the part of someone still learning the intricacies (and some of the basics) of the position. Santana’s addition leaves Miranda firmly in St. Paul at the start of this year, and he will have to prove himself there while he waits for injuries or ineffectiveness to pave a path for his MLB redemption.
    Though the struggles of these three players may seem a bad omen, it actually stands as a good sign that all three must fight for their spots on the Twins roster. These are the kinds of battles that tend to take place at the edges of contending rosters, and they provide the level of accountability that pushes players to strive for continued improvement. It may not be entirely coincidence that all three of these players stumbled during the Twins’ transition from underachievers to contenders. Sometimes, losing seasons and lackluster rosters can breed complacency, even if the players don’t feel it setting in.
    As far as their likelihood of etching a role for themselves in the 2024 Twins roster, Nick Gordon feels like a smart bet due to his positional flexibility and clubhouse presence. Injuries to any one of Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro or Kyle Farmer could hand Gordon a significant role. A healthy Jorge Alcala also has a good chance of finding a role considering the team’s approach to bullpen construction that prioritizes depth and rotation. Finally, while it wouldn’t be crazy to see Jose Miranda in a Twins uniform this year, the presence of young stars (Royce Lewis, Kiriloff) and a supremely durable veteran (Santana) in front of him leaves him most likely to get comfortable at CHS Field this season.
  25. Like
    Karbo reacted to stringer bell for a blog entry, Thoughts as we round the bend towards Spring Training   
    Some thoughts from me--a contrarian old guy who has followed the Twins since they moved from Washington:
    Did you know? Playing the Immaculate Cube has educated and entertained me to a significant degree. I have tried to use as many Twins and ex-Twins as I can find in filling out the cube. Was there ever a guy who played for the Twins and hit 40 homers for the Reds? Yes, and if you knew this you are a trivia maven or cheat by using a baseball reference source. The answer is Wally Post. How about a Gold Glove winner from the Tigers--yeah we all knew it was Kenny Rogers. Silver Slugger on the Giants (Donny Barrels!). I've found some interesting fun facts in trying to fill in Twins on the grid.
    Lefty advantage: The Twins lean right with their pitching staff. Last year, left handed pitchers started exactly six games in the entire season, all by Dallas Keuchel. Left handers accounted for only 106 of 1451 innings pitched by the staff. I have seen several articles recently demonstrating the "lefty advantage" for both pitchers and hitters. The Twins seem to subscribe to the advantage for hitting, but not for their mound staff. I continue to believe that adding a left handed starter would be beneficial, perhaps beyond the numbers put up by the starter. Defensively, the edge for left handed throwing first baseman is something the Twins have traditionally not done despite obvious advantages. I don't think those advantages are adequately covered by defensive metrics, more on that later.
    Speaking of left handers and looking up former Twins, I believe people don't remember or didn't know what a good pitcher former Twin and native Minnesotan Jerry Koosman was. In comparing Kooz with another former Twin Hall of Famer, he had a far better career ERA and ERA+ than Jack Morris. He struck out more batters in basically the same amount of innings. Koosman won 222 games in his long career (Morris won 254). Koosman's career WAR was 53.7, better than Morris, Kirby Puckett or Tony Oliva.
    A left handed hitter in Twins history who was far better than I remembered was Don Mincher (I remembered Halsey Hall calling him "Minch in a pinch" because of his pinch hitting abilities).  Mincher had an OPS+ of over 100 in every full season and managed a lifetime OPS+ of 127, better than Kirby Puckett or Joe Mauer. 
    Misconceptions: I seen several posts saying that Kyle Farmer could platoon with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Farmer has played first base about as much as Christian Vázquez and obviously we don't want to see that much if at all. Farmer is a natural to get at-bats against left handed pitching in place of Edouard Julien. Further, I think Farmer's overall value has dropped to the Twins due to the personnel on the team. They have a replacement for Carlos Correa (Brooks Lee) in St. Paul and he's a top prospect. As a fill-in for a day or two, I think Willi Castro can play shortstop every bit as well as the 34-year-old Farmer. Farmer never has been regarded as fast, but is the epitome of the reliable guy who turns outs into outs, but he's range limited with only an okay arm. His fielding metrics last year were neutral at second and third, but substandard at shortstop. This really limits Farmer's value. I don't think there is another team that would consider him to be an everyday starter at shortstop, and that really hurts his trade value. He might be most valuable to the Twins in part due to his clubhouse presence.
    Nick Gordon has improved his chances to make the Twins out of Spring Training with the trade of Jorge Polanco. I'm skeptical of him helping the team this year because what he does comparatively well (hit right handed pitching) is already covered by Julien, Wallner and Willi Castro. Nick's brother was a really fast runner (won a stolen base crown) and people seem to think Gordon is also really fast. He's not, his sprint speed before his broken shinbone was 50th percentile. He's slower than Matt Wallner and the equal of Alex Kirilloff. Burners like Bubba Thompson and (a healthy) Byron Buxton are two-three feet per second faster. I credit Nick with making himself a viable major leaguer by becoming a capable outfielder while already on the Twins. Unfortunately, he is a utility guy who is really stretched playing shortstop and he's barely played the infield corners. 
    Defensive metrics: I remain suspicious of defensive metrics. First of all, I think rating defense in assigning WAR often misses the mark. Secondly, I think it is tough to measure. I don't think outfielder's throwing arms are properly credited, for example. A Matt Wallner or Michael Cuddyer can make up for not catching an occasional drive to the gap due to denying extra bases because of their strong throwing arms. Too often Defensive Runs saved doesn't justify with other measures such as range factor. Some measures reward lack of errors and "turning outs into outs" while others seem to reward making plays not expected. No system is foolproof and it seems to me that a reputation is rewarded long after the actual performance has slipped. There also isn't enough credit for versatile players that might play where they are stretched or unfamiliar like Nick Gordon or Willi Castro playing center field.
    Several more thoughts in this cluttered mind. Maybe I'll make another entry before Spring Training starts.
     
     
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