Karbo

Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! The Minnesota Twins will be playing a spring training baseball game against the Atlanta Braves tomorrow.
What an exciting time of year this is. And the best way to celebrate these exciting times are with some bold(ish) predictions for the 2025 season.
1. Griffin Jax strikes out triple digits
The Twins haven't had a primary relief pitcher strike out 100 or more batters in a single season since Juan Rincón fanned 106 in 2004. In the years since, nobody has come closer than Jax did in 2024. The Air Force product struck out 95 opponents over 71.0 innings pitched last season, and it's possible that the Twins position in the standings cost him the opportunity to reach the 100 strikeout milestone. With the playoffs out of reach, Rocco Baldelli opted out not use Jax in their final three game series of the regular season. It was well earned rest for Jax, who has logged the fifth most relief innings in the Majors since the start of 2022.
2. The Twins steal 100 bases for the first time since 2012
100 is a nice round number, so we'll make it a bit of a theme. This sounds like a big leap coming off a year where the Twins only stole 65 bases, but they have the pieces to pull this off. Minnesota didn't lose much speed over the off-season. Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot collectively stole nine bases in 548 games last year. Players like Austin Martin (7 SB in 93 G), Brooks Lee (3 SB in 50 G) and Edouard Julien (6 SB in 94 G) can help add to the total simply by taking away extra at-bats from some of those departed players. Harrison Bader also stole 17 bases for the New York Mets last year. For this to be even possible, Willi Castro would need to get back to his 2023 form where he stole 33 bases. The utility man swiped just 14 bags in 2024.
3. Joe Ryan is an All-Star
Joe Ryan was pitching so well before a shoulder strain in August ended his season seven weeks early. He had the fourth best strikeout-to-walk ratio and eight lowest WHIP among pitchers who started at least 20 games last season. The tools are very clearly in place. As is the case with several players on the Twins, he just needs to be healthy and on the field to earn the accolades. 
4. Carlos Correa wins the Silver Slugger
Maybe this goes under the radar a bit, but Carlos Correa has the fifth highest OPS among shortstops since joining the Twins in 2022. And that's with a lackluster 2023 season dragging his numbers down a bit. The man produces at the plate. He just needs to be healthy enough to get the necessary at-bats. 2024 seemed like it was poised to be a career year. Correa had a .900 OPS for the first time since the ultra juiced ball year of 2019, but his foot injuries resurfaced and he didn't play at all between July 12th and September 14th. He wasn't putting up empty stats either. Correa hit .314 in high leverage situations, according to Baseball Reference.
5. Max Kepler has a solid year in his new home
The bar for "solid year" will be different for everyone, but the prediction here is that Kepler adjusts to post-Twins life better than several other Bomba Squad-era teammates who have since been castoff. Kepler is going to a really good hitters park where he'll have a lot of protection up and down the lineup, and he's also been better than some of these other pieces in recent years. What Eddie Rosario did in the 2021 NLCS was fun to watch, but he still has an 83 OPS+ with -8 defensive runs saved since leaving Minnesota. Kepler's career low for OPS+ in a single season is only 91. Mitch Garver is another Bomba Squad player who went off and won a World Series with a new team, but there's only so much value you bring as a DH and occasional fill-in piece at catcher. The other players to look at from that core are Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano, who have done even less than the previously mentioned players.
6. Ty France does not make Twins opening day roster, Jose Miranda starts at first base
Ty France has a non-guaranteed contract, so the Twins would be able to release him at the end of camp for no money lost. The only thing it would've cost them is a 40-man placeholder for six or seven weeks. Minnesota had a similar arrangement with Anibal Sanchez in 2018. He signed a Major League contract in the off-season, but the money was only guaranteed if he made the opening day roster. Anyway, it's time for Jose Miranda to assume a full time role. He's moved around between first base, third base and designated hitter during his time with the Twins. After bouncing back from a poor showing in 2023, a strong showing in the Grapefruit League might be all Twins management needs to give him his first full time role.
7. Jorge Alcalá continues his hot and cold career
There is no denying that Jorge Alcalá has talent. Every Twins fan who has watched him knows he can be special when pitching at his best. But his whole career has been filled with these ups and downs. It's an on again, off again relationship that rivals Ross and Rachel. Last season was no different. Alcalá owned a 1.63 ERA through 35 appearances at the end of July. His ERA was 6.41 across 19 outings in August and September. His worst outing was in an August 18th loss to Texas that many point to as the beginning of the Twins late season slide. Alcalá is turning 30 in July. He's been a big leaguer since 2019. At this point, there's no reason to expect anything different. He's going to give the Twins some good stretches, and some bad ones.
8. Twins trade for Framber Valdez at the deadline
Houston doesn't bend over backwards to keep their own guys. Just look at the laundry list of core pieces they've let go; Correa, Springer, Keuchel, Morton, Tucker, Bregman, Pressly. There was even a point where they let Justin Verlander sign with the Mets, only to get him back via trade three months later. If you're not Jose Altuve, they are willing to let you walk out the door and call up their next prospect in line. For that reason, a 31-year old Framber Valdez might be available as a rental. Especially if the Astros can't withstand losing Tucker, Bregman and Pressly all in one off-season. This just might be a re-set year for the organization as they wait for their next wave of prospects.
9. Chris Paddack gives Twins 20-25 solid starts
It's impossible to bank on Chris Paddack for a full 30+ start season with his injury history, but he can still be a solid fifth starter option. Think about the role Kenta Maeda played for the Twins in 2023; 20 starts with a 4.23 ERA. Maybe Paddack won't be quite that good, but Minnesota would sign up for anything close to that. And the 2023 Twins probably didn't have as much starter depth behind Maeda to supplement the time he was down. That was a team who was running Dallas Keuchel out there at points. Fans probably feel better about the Woods-Richardson, Festa, Matthews trio of depth than the shell of Dallas Keuchel. 
10. The Twins win 95 games and take the AL Central
Minnesota was on a 92 win pace as late as August 17th last year, and then the season went off the rails. It's always easy to blame pitching for a collapse like that, and the Twins certainly had problems with their staff. Joe Ryan was hurt, their trio of rookie starters all seemed to hit a wall, and the bullpen was falling apart. But despite all that, the bats were still a bigger issue down the stretch. From August 18th onward, the Twins scored just 137 runs. Only the White Sox and Nationals scored less over that span. In short, everything went wrong over those final 38 games. But sometimes, you need to trust bigger samples. Believe in what you saw for 124 games. Not 38. Even without doing much this off-season, Minnesota is still a very good ball club.

Shohei Ohtani is the number one talent in MLB and will be as long as his body does not fall apart – Last year he had 59 SB and 54 HRs – and he batted 310.  He had 9.1 WAR.  In 7 years he has maintained a 282 BA, and in seven years he has accumulated 43.8 WAR.  Plus what gets him on this list is that he was a two way players – a Pitcher (not last year) and a Hitter.  And his pitching stats are 38 – 19 with a 3.01 era.  Not the greatest pitcher, but ready to be number one on 2/3rd of the teams.  So is he the best?
Well there is another guy that seems to have made a name for himself – even a candy bar.  Babe Ruth with 182.6 WAR – Shohei has a ways to go here.  714 HRs, and he had 123 SB – although that was not his forte’.  His career slugging was 690. Shohei had a monster year last year and had a 646 Slugging.  And that Ruth guy could pitch too – which he did in 10 years – he did not want to pitch more but he could have.  His record was 94 – 46 with a 2.28 era.  So beyond recency bias how does Shohei rank number one in this rare category?
And then there is a third entry into this list – a man who went 34 – 5 in one season, then had his arm go dead so he switched to the OF.  Smoky Joe Wood was not in the same category as Ruth and Ohtani, but he did gain 40.2 WAR.  117 – 57 2.03 are pretty dramatic numbers, and a 283/357/411 slash line is not a bad one.
That is the end of that list but as I tossed in bed with a brain that would not stop I then though there are other means to go two ways:
Bo Jackson – played 8 years of major league ball.  He only accumulated 8.3 WAR but for four years he was mister excitement, but the trouble was he was doubling up with professional football and those four seasons with the Raiders injured him too much for either sport.
Deion Sanders was another NFL/MLB cross over.   His 5.5 WAR over 9 years tells you he was not a star in MLB, but he was HOF in NFL and had one really exciting season in the majors.
Looking at cross overs I have to rate Jim Thorpe the best – Olympic Champion in multiple events, in six years in the majors his line was 252/286/362 – not exactly all-star.  But in the NFL he was named on the 1920s Hall of Fame team.  
One MLB/NBA cross over was Gene Conely who played for the Milwaukee Braves and the Boston Celtic.  91 – 96 career on the mound 3.82 era.  No one knew how to deal with such a tall pitcher in those days.  He played 6 years in the NBA, but took off six to concentrate on BB.  He averaged 5.9 points and 6.3 rebounds as a power forward. 
Danny Ainge played in Toronto three seasons and accumulated a -2.0 WAR – not a star.  But in over 1000 games in the NBA he averaged 11.6 points per game
But crossing over is not easy – ask Michael Jordan.
I tried looking at other sports and HOF John Smoltz also was a pro golfer and was in nine tournaments.
In Hockey Smoltz teammate Tom Glavine played Hockey before BB but not the NHL although he was drafted by the LA Kings.
Justin Morneau  only played in a single exhibition game, playing for the Portland Winter Hawks of the WHL in 1997.  And luckily for the Twins turned to BB. 
But there was actually one player who was both professional baseball and hockey - James Riley is the first player to ever play both professional baseball and professional hockey. He played 17 games in the NHL, 90 games in the Pacific Coast Hockey Association and won the Stanley Cup with the Seattle Metropolitans in 1917. In addition, Riley played professional baseball for small parts of twelve seasons, from 1921 to 1932, with the St. Louis Browns and Washington Senators.
That is as far as I can go – football was always a two way sport up through Chuck Bednarik of the Eagles so now they are considering some two way players again, but it is not as dramatic as baseballs.  And naturally NFL has many kickers who have been pro soccer players. 
We know many of these athletes had skills that could have led to other sports, but it was always considered better to concentrate on one sport or one skill.  In baseball there might have been other pitcher/batters if the DH had existed.  Bullet Joe Bush hit .325 in 1921 and .326  - 1922 and 339 -1924. For his career a 253 average.   Wes Ferrell would have been a better example.  He was often a pinch hitter as well as batting in his own starts - His 38 career home runs are the all-time record for a pitcher (not named Ohtani). two seasons with an OPS better than .950, and two more above .800. He also won 193 games in a 15-year career.

The Twins have a knack for developing pretty deep lineups 1-9 in terms of how the bottom third of our lineups typically stack up way better than the rest of the league at these spots.  That and a deep productive bench is how we have managed to stay above average on offense for the last few years.  This season, however, there is a potential wrench in this deal.  Our new 1B is in a 2-year slump and could play himself off the roster before the season begins and Julien had an awful sophomore slump season.  Luckily, we do have depth to replace them if we don’t wait too long with Castro or Lee at 2B and Miranda going to 1B and bring up E Rod or Keaschal to start somewhere in the lineup. But if France and either Lee or Julien can be average to above average hitters then the Twins can have an above average offense again. Though not as good because our bench is not as offense oriented as in the recent past. (great defensively though) Back to 1B and 2B, If France can hit .250 with 25 doubles and 10/15 HRs with 60-70 RBI and Julien swings at more pitches and hits better with 15-20 HRs 10-15 Stolen bases and .340 OBP with 60-70 RBI our offense continues to hum along.  Lee could sub for Julien and hit .270 with 25 doubles and 10-15 HRs and 60-70 RBI and again we are good.  Last season the Twins were 4th in the league in runs scored despite their top RBI guy only getting 71 RBIs.  That is a testament to how effective a deep offense can be during the season. To include the other solid hitters we have include Jeffers, Miranda, Castro, Larnarch, and the elite Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis.  that is 8 solid hitters with Emmanual Rodriguez and Luke Keaschal not far away from coming up wither. That is a pretty deep collection of solid production.  
Here is the other part of the coin for the Twins.  Elite offense and Health.  The Twins have several elite offensive players: Correa, Buxton, Lewis and Wallner who could all drive-in 90+ runs for the year and raise the level of our offense to a new level.  But none of these 4 guys have played and received 500 ABs in a season the last few years.  Only Correa did that and he is not consistent with that either. IF these 4 guys can stay healthy and productive that would be a boon for the Twins.
The best of both worlds.  If France and either Lee or Julien work out and Correa, Buxton, Lewis, and Wallner play in all of the games they should.  We could have a top 3 offense in the league.  But that has been the case for the last 2 or 3 years.  The past says it won’t happen but hope springs eternal in spring.  I would like to believe that for one we can have at least 3 of our elite offensive players be elite the entire season and France and whoever is at 2nd be adequate to give us that offensive edge.  This would be the year to do it with how stacked our pitched and pitching depth is going into this year. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OsvfG5Qie0
I enjoyed this video & I thought I'd share it with my TD bros.. Now I agree with most that a sacrifice bunt is not beneficial in most cases and some players shouldn't be bunting but I agree with the author that there are many cases when bunting makes a lot of sense. Therefore bunting should not be shunned but should be taught & encouraged, especially those who have the talent to do so. Many INFers cheat by playing back because they don't expect a bunt. Having the ability to bunt will make the INFers honest & increase your chances of getting a hit. Another reason for not bunting is because it does practically nothing to increase your SLG or OPS & that's what teams go by. Many lauded the batter with high SLG & OPS who hits a lot of HRs when they're not needed & getting out when getting on base is needed. Yet shun the player with lower SLG & OPS who gets on base by bunting or otherwise, making those bunts into doubles & triples, Shaking pitchers up to make mistakes for following batters & sparking rallies & winning games (Isn't that the most important stat?). IMO that's where analytics veers off when too much importance is put on SLG & OPS where they try to squeeze out every HR from every player & overlook their other talents that can make the difference between a contender & a 4th place finish in the AL Central.

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2025, or who may make an impact within a few years. I started doing this back in 2023 and then life happened, so let’s try again! I started with catchers , then discussed 1st base and 2nd base. I will work my way around the diamond to touch on all positions.  I’ll be using Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found at FanGraphs.
Here is a short write up of each player at 3rd  base in the Twins System that is not on the 40-man roster. I’ll include how they were acquired, and the highest level played at in 2024.
 
 Anthony Prato
Acquired: 7th round, 2019
Highest Level: AAA
               A 7th round pick in 2019 out of UConn, Prato has steadily climbed the minor league ladder, spending 2024, at age 26, with AAA St. Paul. In 106 games with the Saints, he hit .228/.370/350, so he left some to be desired offensively, racking up a wRC+ of 98. Playing in his age 27 season, he will likely serve as organizational depth unless he is able to take a step, or two, forward. One thing Prato has going for him is that he has played all over the diamond, logging games at 3rd, 2nd, LF, RF, and SS. He even pitched in one game and threw 2 innings, where he gave up 1 unearned run and struck one batter out. I don’t think he’ll be on the mound too much this year, but I wanted to share because it was a fun statistic.
 
Rubel Cespedes
Acquired: Amateur FA, 2019
Highest Level: A+
               Cespedes was signed out of the Dominican Republic as part of the International Free Agent class of 2019. The left-handed hitter has taken a little time to develop but seemed to start turning a corner in 2024. For Cedar Rapids, he played 110 games and launched 12 home runs with a slash line of .282/.346.431. He has started to strike out less and make louder contact. In an article by Aaron Gleeman on the Athletic this past year, Aaron spoke with Twins director of player development Drew MacPhail where MacPhail said the following on Cespedes: “He’s making way better swing decisions and not chasing as much.” This is a good sign so it will be interesting to see how Cespedes develops and if he is able to take the next step forward in 2025.
 
Tanner Schobel
Acquired: 2nd round, 2022
Highest Level: AA
               Signed for just over $1 million after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft, Schobel climbed up to AA in his first full year of professional ball in 2023. He repeated the level in his age 23 season, where he didn’t have quite as much success in his full year in Wichita. Listed at 5’9” and 170 lbs, Schobel is the type of player who could still carve out a role as a utility guy at the big league level in the future. He’s played the majority of his games at 3rd base, but also played games in AA at 2nd base, left field, and shortstop. Schobel was ranked as the Twins #17 prospect on Twins Daily and #19 on mlb.com this past year.
 
Billy Amick
Acquired: 2nd round, 2024
Highest Level: A
               Amick started his collegiate career at Clemson but after being limited to 1B and DH, he transferred to Tennessee, where he got the opportunity to play some 3rd base. A second round pick this past year, Amick got his first taste of pro ball with Fort Myers. Amick showed major power in his year with the Volunteers, hitting 23 HR and having an OPS over 1.000. Still young, Amick will likely start in the lower minors and continue to develop. If he continues to barrel up the ball, a path to the major leagues is a real possibility. Keep your eye on him as a guy who could make an impact at some point.
 
Miguel Briceno
Acquired: AAA Rule 5 Draft (from Milwaukee), Dec 2024
Highest Level: A
               Briceno was recently taken in the AAA Rule 5 draft. He’s going to be playing his age 21 season this coming year, so he’s still young, he is still getting his feet wet in professional baseball. Signed in 2019 with the Milwaukee Brewers, Briceno played this past year with A  Carolina, where he hit .277/.320/.365. Briceno has also played multiple positions, having played 1B, 2B, and in the corner OF in his professional career as well.
Yohander Martinez
Acquired: AAA Rule 5 Draft (from Houston), Dec 2022
Highest Level: A
               A previous top-40 prospect in the Houston Astros system, Martinez has been in the Twins organization the past 2 seasons. His 2024 season was disappointing where he hit .185 with 1 HR in 55 games played with single-A Fort Myers. He will likely be at A ball for a 4th season, so unless he starts to develop further, he may struggle moving up the minor league ladder. He’s played second base as well as third base, and even played a couple of games at first base, so there is some positional flexibility, but that flexibility is only useful if he hits enough. This coming season will be a big year for Martinez to see if he can take the next step forward.
 
Isaac Pena
Acquired: Amateur FA, 2021
Highest Level: A
               Pena has moved up one level each of his first three professional seasons, starting in the Dominican Summer League in 2022 and playing the 2024 season with single-A Fort Myers. In his age 20 season, he didn’t hit much over 64 games with the Mighty Mussels. He had a great year in 2023 hitting.341/432/.434. He’s still developing so repeating a year in single-A will be likely and to see if he can tap into his success from previous years.
 
Peyton Carr
Acquired: 10th round, 2024
Highest Level: ---
               Carr has had a rough few years dealing with injuries, and only played in 27 games this past year at High Point University, where he only was in the DH spot due to the abdominal injury. From Fort Myers, Florida, Carr probably watched a lot of future Twins players while growing up. When healthy this past year for High Point, he hit .418/516/864. Yes, a small sample size but a good sign nonetheless. He has plus raw power and has proven to be a good hitter when healthy. It would be great to see a healthy 2025 season to see him make an impact in his first year of professional baseball.
 
 

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2025, or who may make an impact within a few years. I started doing this back in 2023 and then life happened, so let’s try again! I started with catchers and 1st base and will work my way around the diamond from there! I’ll be using Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found at FanGraphs.
Here is a short write up of each player at 2nd base in the Twins System that is not on the 40-man roster. I’ll include how they were acquired, and the highest level played at in 2024.
 
Luke Keaschall
2nd round, 2023
Highest Level: AA
               If you follow prospects closely, you probably know about Keaschall, whom the Twins selected in the 2nd round in 2023 and signed for $1.5 million. Keaschall is ranked as the #61 prospect on the most recent prospect rankings on mlb.com. Keaschall has hit since being drafted, moving up multiple levels, having most recently gotten up to AA Wichita in his second professional season. His 2024 season ended early due to an elbow injury, but he played 58 games at AA where he hit .281/.393/439 after hitting even better in Cedar Rapids. He will likely start the year in St. Paul and could get the call to the majors sometime in 2025 depending on how the major league team performs and where needs end up. I’m excited to see what his long term position ends up being, or if Keaschall will hit enough to be a super-utility player who doesn’t need a set position.
 
Payton Eeles
Non-drafted Free Agent, 2024
Highest Level: AAA
               Eeles seemingly came out of nowhere signing with the Twins in May of 2024 as an undrafted free agent and climbing as high as AAA St. Paul after starting in single-A. Eeles played college ball at Coastal Carolina and started the year in Independent league, playing for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs of the Atlantic League.  Listed at 5’5”, 180 lbs, the 25 year old has put himself in prospect discussions and has climbed up to the top 30 prospects in the Twins system. Eeles has shown more power than you might expect, hitting 12 home runs over 111 games in 2024. He’s a guy who is easy to root for, given his background and I’m excited to see how he continues to develop.
 
Jose Salas
Trade, 2023 (with Pablo Lopez)
Highest Level: AAA
               Acquired in 2023 along with some guy named Pablo Lopez from the Marlins for Luis Arraez. Salas’ prospect shine has lightened since acquiring him, having been a borderline top 100 prospect when the Twins acquired him. He is still only 21 years old, so maybe there is a chance he could still develop. He has stolen some bases, stealing 22 bases in 2024. While he has good tools, his offense needs to develop for him to be considered part of the long term plans.
 
Dameury Pena
Amateur Free Agency, 2023
Highest Level: Complex League
               Pena signed as part of the 2023 international free agent class and no one really knew what to expect. He’s listed at 5’9” and 150 lbs, so he lacks power, but has been compared to Luis Arraez, having had a 33:18 BB to K ratio. His future value, similar to Arraez, hinges on being able to hit for a high batting average.
 
Kyle DeBarge
1st round, 2024
Highest Level: A
               Taken in the 1st round and signed for a slightly under-slot $2.4 million after hitting .356/.418/.699 with Louisiana-Lafayette, a college shortstop, DeBarge got his first taste of professional baseball playing with Fort Myers playing mostly at second base. He struggled a little bit, as many young hitters do, and will likely start at single-A and see if he can continue to develop. He  has shown he has the potential to have massive power after hitting 21 home runs in his final year with the Rajun Cajuns. It will be interesting to see how he develops going forward, but the upside is definitely there.
 
Angel Del Rosario    
AAA Rule 5, 2023
Highest Level: AA
               Taken in the AAA Rule 5 draft in 2023, Angel Del Rosario played 61 games in the Twins system and 56 with single-A Fort Myers in 2024 having hit .226/340/.287 so he has shown to have a decent eye at the plate but has also struck out in about a quarter of his at bats over the past couple of years.  Del Rosario has also played quite a few games in the outfield, most specifically in left field.

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2025, or who may make an impact within a few years. I started doing this back in 2023 and then life happened, so let’s try again! I started with catchers and will work my way around the diamond from there! I’ll be using Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found at FanGraphs. The 1st base list is short, mostly because players will move down the defensive spectrum over time. As you probably remember, Miguel Sano was signed as a lanky shortstop back in 2009. I will not be including Mickey Gasper, who was acquired from the Red Sox for Jovani Moran because Gasper is on the 40-man roster.
Here is a short write up of each player at 1st base in the Twins System that is not on the 40-man roster. I’ll include how they were acquired, and the highest level played at in 2024.
 
Mike Ford
Free Agency, 2025
Highest Level: MLB, most recently in NPB in Japan
               Mike Ford is likely a depth signing and if he can make some noise in Spring Training, could carve out a role on the 2025 Twins. Ford will be playing his age 32 season in 2025 and has shown small flashes of looking decent, as recently as 2023 where he hit 16 home runs with the Mariners. In 2024, he was signed by the Reds and after 17 games of hitting .150/.177/233, he was released and finished the year in Japan with the Yokohoma DeNA BayStars. He only played six games with the BayStars going 4-for-20 (.200) with 1 HR. In early December, it was announced he would not be returning making him a free agent. Could the Twins catch lightning in a bottle? Sure, there is a chance, but expect to see Ford in St. Paul until he triggers an opt out, or he hits enough to be called up to the bigs.
 
Yunior Severino
Free Agency, 2017
Highest Level: AAA
               If you follow prospects, you have probably seen or heard Severino’s name a handful of times over the past few years. Severino is a switch hitter and his power is his calling card, having hit a combined 56 home runs over the past two seasons in Wichita and St. Paul. Severino has been with the Saints in AAA since being called up during the 2023 season when he was tearing up AA pitching. You may remember Severino has a 3rd base prospect, but he has moved down the defensive spectrum and played just 1st base and DH this past year in St. Paul. He hasn’t shown to have a great glove, so DH is the likely position. If he hits enough, he can become a part time 1st baseman and DH but he will need to do something to separate himself.
 
Aaron Sabato
1st round – 2020
Highest Level: AA
               Sabato had a rough start to his career in the strikeout and batting average department, as many on Twins Twitter would remind you if his name ever came up. In 2024, he still struck out a ton, but could he have turned in a corner after being called up to Wichita and hitting 10 home runs in 85 games at the AA level. He will remind you a lot of other guys the Twins have had in past years (looking at you Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo) where he strikes out a lot, and hits for some power. The former 1st round pick still has time to develop, but 2025 will be a big year for the soon to be 26 year old.
 
Jefferson Valladares
AAA Rule 5 Draft, 2024
Highest Level: A with LAD
               Valladares was picked in the AAA rule-5 draft this past December. The soon to be 23 year old from Venezuela was in single-A with the Dodgers in 2024 where he hit for approximately league average. He appears to be a lottery ticket type prospect and we’ll see if the Twins organization can unlock something to take him to the next level.
 
 
Who on this list will you be keeping track of in 2025? 

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2025, or who may make an impact within a few years. I started doing this back in 2023 and life happened, so I'm taking a stab at it again 2 years later.  I’ll start with catchers and work my way around the diamond from there! I’ll be using Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found at FanGraphs. 
Here is a short write up of each player at catcher in the Twins System that is not on the 40-man roster. I’ll include how they were acquired, and the highest level played at in 2024.
 
Patrick Winkel
9th round – 2021
Highest level: AAA
Winkel has worked his way up to AAA since being drafted in 2021 in the 9th round out of UConn. He has climbed the minor league ladder pretty steadily since being drafted. In his most recent season with AAA Saint Paul, he played in 78 games, splitting time with Jair Camargo. He has hit .249/.330/391 in parts of 4 minor league seasons, and in 2024 he hit .228/.330/.391 with the Saints. His wRC+ has been slightly above average until 2024 where he took a step back offensively. It will be interesting to see how repeating AAA will go and if he will be able to build off the experience he had the past few years. It appears he has some upside still, but is buried on the depth chart at this time with who is ahead of him at catcher. A trade of Christian Vazquez could free up some playing time at AAA for Winkel with Cartaya or Camargo filling in behind Ryan Jeffers.
 
Ricardo Olivar
Amateur Free Agent – 2019
Highest Level: AA
Olivar started 2024 off hitting quite well in Cedar Rapids with 11 home runs over 81 games played, which earned him a call up to Wichita for 19 games toward the end of the season. Olivar has been ranked as high as 16th within the Twins organization. Some struggles ensued at AA, but nothing too much to be worried about. Olivar has hit at all levels, especially after getting some experience under his belt. The biggest question with Olivar is if he stays at catcher long term, or if he transitions to the outfield. The organization seems to want to tap into his versatility as much as they can. If his bat develops faster than his fielding, a move to a corner outfield spot might be in the cards over the long term
 
Noah Cardenas
8th round – 2021
Highest Level: AA
Cardenas is a 25 year old prospect who has topped out at the AA level. He is a glove first catcher. He strikes out a little more than he walks and has not hit much at the AA level thus far. His slash line of .173/.311/.276 is a bit underwhelming but that doesn’t mean he can’t carve out a role for himself long term. He was drafted in the 8th round back in 2021 after hitting .302/.407/.426 over 3 years of college at UCLA. Cardenas has had some value defensively, throwing out 26 of 108 would be base stealers in 2024 with the Wind Surge, which is a solid 24%.  He will likely start the year at AA and we will see if he can continue to grow and put himself into a long term discussion or if he will fill the role of organizational depth going forward.
 
Andrew Cossetti
11th round – 2022
Highest Level: AA
Cossetti split time pretty evenly with Cardenas in Wichita. He struggled a little bit with the bat with the transition to AA. In 86 games played, he hit .192/.299/.344. On a different note, he had 8 home runs and 18 doubles in 86 games, so the power is still developing. He hit a bit more in 2023 at the A and High-A levels, so if he can adjust and create some success at the AA level, we could see his value improve. He has played some games at 1st base as well over the past couple of years, so that’s something to keep an eye on as well. He will have to hit much more to be considered a potential option there, however.
 
 
Khadim Diaw
3rd round – 2024
Highest Level: A
The highest drafted catcher since Ryan Jeffers was taken in the 2nd round, Diaw has broken the Twins top 30 prospects on mlb.com already after being drafted in 2024. One intriguing thing about Diaw is that he has taken reps at all three outfield positions and is athletic enough to end up there. He only has a handful of games under his belt, but keep an eye on how often he is behind the plate or in the outfield. Versatility can be extremely valuable, especially if catcher is one of the positions you can play.  
 
 
Poncho Ruiz
Non-drafted Free Agent – 2023
Highest Level: A+
Ruiz was signed an a non-drafted free agent in 2023. These types of deals always are interesting because it makes you wonder what led to a player not being drafted. There are less rounds in the MLB draft than there were in the past, so it’s very possible he would have been drafted with a later round pick if the draft was still longer. Ruiz played most of his games with Fort Myers and got a taste of high-A as well. He hit well in Fort Myers and it didn’t translate in his short stay with Cedar Rapids. I would assume he will start at Cedar Rapids this year and see if his bat can continue to develop. Between A and A+, he hit .248/.350/.361, so overall numbers were solid.
 
 
Nate Baez
12th round – 2022
Highest Level: A+
Baez spent the year in Cedar Rapids at high-A, playing in 82 games. He has hit decently well throughout his minors career, most recently wish a slash of .239/.331/420 this past season with the Kernels. He has shown some pop, hitting 12 home runs this past year, and his wRC+ being above average in each year. He has played some first base in the minors as well, so if his bat continues to develop and it’s determined he isn’t a catcher long term, the power could be his tool that carries him.
 
 
Daniel Pena
Amateur Free Agent – 2022
Highest Level: A
Pena signed as an amateur free agent in 2022 out of Venezuela. He has spent time in the Dominican Summer League, the Florida Complex team, and in 2024 got some experience in Fort Myers. His bat is still developing, but has shown promise early on in his minor league career. Pena is still just 19 so a while from making an impact, but he is a prospect to keep an eye on to see how he is developing.
 
Ricardo Pena
Amateur Free Agent – 2022
Highest Level: Complex
Pena was signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2022 at the age of 17. He’s now about to play his age 20 season, and showed some promise in the Florida Complex League last year at 19. Still a low level prospect, but we will see how he develops as a catcher or if a shift down the defensive spectrum to 1st base is in the cards long term. Still a long way away from making that decision.
 
 
Carlos Silva
Amateur Free Agent – 2023
Highest Level: Dominican Summer League
Silva has the same name as former Twins pitcher, but he is quite different, one can confidently say, as the former pitcher was 6’4” and 280 lbs, while this Carlos is listed at 5’10” and 168 lbs. Silva played the past year in the DSL and is still very early in his development but he is someone to keep an eye on.
 
 
Victor Leal
Amateur Free Agent – 2024
Highest Level: Dominican Summer League
Leal signed as an amateur free agent just last year and got into 42 games in the DSL at 17. At 18 years old, he still early on in his development and it will be interesting to see how he continues to develop.

Hi all, 

I posted a while back and was doing some writing on the prospects and depth at different positions throughout the organization. Some life things happened (new job, moved, etc) and I was wondering if people would be interested in me bringing something like that back? 

If you'd prefer to see other topics talked about, I'm all for ideas and would love to start posting regularly again. Let me know any feedback or topics you'd like to see discussed further! 

https://www.msn.com/en-in/sports/mlb/latest-news-on-japanese-sensation-roki-sasaki-brings-hope-for-minnesota-twins/ar-AA1vCsCx
 Everybody have said "Sasaki will want to be on the West Coast, be near fellow Japanese, be part of a big market, forget about him". I've been saying all along, "Don't trade away our International bonus money, don't give up on Roki Sasaki!" Seems like he's more drawn to mid-market. MN has a lot going for it, laid back atmosphere, very good pitching development, we can center a winning team around him & he'd be thee star not surrounded by prima-donas. 
When I 1st came to Brazil I was open & was amazed by the culture. I embraced the culture & preferred seeking out Brazilian relationships than isolating myself with other Americans even though I knew very little Portuguese. I ended up marrying a Brazilian & made Brazil my home. IMO Roki Sasaki could be like me. I have heard nothing coming out of the Twins about reaching out to Sasaki. That's a big mistake, they should bend backward to try to land him. He's a quiet guy so Falvey needs to learn not to talk so much & be sincere. Sasaki has a lot to offer the Twins, not only his talents but also a big Japanese market.

There's a lot of discussion around Willi Castro and whether the Twins will pay up an estimated $6.2M via arbitration to keep him around next year. People are coming down on both sides, and really anyone could be right. I see 3 scenarios where the Castro decision shows which way the team will decide to construct next year's roster. Take a break from the Dodgers crushing the Yankees (we'll see how that statement ages), and take a walk with me...
Scenario 1 - Joe Pohlad finds his wallet
In this scenario, Derek Falvey gets approval to slightly improve the payroll number to north of $130M. Despite Castro's stature as a utility man, Falvey recognizes his value is greater to the Twins than a lot of teams due to his ability to play a number of positions decently and he remembers in most games to bring his bat. Maybe he's a more consistent version of Nick Punto, after all. $6M for a 3 WAR player doesn't seem so bad, and Falvey can perhaps get creative with other moves to find bullpen help, a first baseman, and a starter who's not considered a reclamation project. I'm not sure how to describe the probability of this scenario, but it seems plausible but not likely.
Scenario 2 - Youth movement
This time, the family believes the easiest path to selling the Twins is to pare down the team payroll (and possibly other areas). There's no way Castro stays in this scenario, and the Twins also seek to deal Lopez, Vasquez and Correa (who I hope says "no"). Even in this scenario, they probably don't deal Buxton in order to stave off a complete fan revolt. Kepler and the other free agents get the front office's best wishes and not much more, and the Twins start the year with some well-known prospects like Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez and probably a couple of surprises on the roster. They would be fun to watch, but some of the more learned fans will find themselves going to more Saints games to see a more competitive team. I really hope this doesn't happen, and I'm afraid it might.
Scenario 3 - Falvey's sleeve and the tricks they hold
Maybe the salary range is a little higher. Or lower. But Derek Falvey does something or maybe a few somethings to create some flexibility. One of those might be offering Willi Castro a 3 year deal. No idea what that would look like...maybe $12M to lower his annual value to $4M? Maybe finding a trade partner for Vasquez for a little more relief? If they decide to roll with Jeffers and Camargo at catcher, maybe Falvey finds a left-handed starter? A power hitting first baseman? The possibilities aren't exactly endless, but I can almost guarantee he'll do something that isn't on anyone's radar. I think this scenario may be the most likely, but we're talking about like a 40/30/30 split.
I always love the roster construction exercise with the uncertainty and the number of paths that we as a fanbase will describe, deconstruct, argue about, and propose alternatives. While cheering the Twins on in the World Series would be a better use of our time in October, we are where we are...reading the tea leaves and dreaming of spring training. 

By now I'd imagine all of you know who David Festa is, top pitching prospect last year who got called up mid-season to fill the void Chris Paddack left after having yet another season ending injury. His results were middling and some of his underlying metrics don't impress but I'm here to convince you to buy in on a breakout next year (hence the article's name) so let's get right into it! Starting off, Festa's whopping 31.7% chase rate, 28.2% whiff rate and 27.8 K% all are well above league average bordering on elite, now why is he getting this crazy kind of chase and whiff rates? Well dear viewer, it all comes down to the pitch mix and Festa's certainly is set to impress. Festa relies on a 3 pitch mix, Fastball-Slider-Changeup in order from most to least used, a deceivingly simple set of offerings that when you dive into it there's a lot to love.
Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway% 2024 Four Seamer 442 242 200 40.2 94.7 93 79 24 13 7 0 4 23 56 .304 .274 .544 .505 .410 .384 91.3 18 2349 7.0 18.9 21.3 2024 Slider 349 244 105 31.8 86.1 97 92 19 13 3 2 1 26 66 .207 .243 .315 .399 .246 .294 90.2 13 2564 6.8 29.1 20.2 2024 Changeup 308 116 192 28.0 88.4 87 80 19 10 4 1 4 28 53 .238 .211 .463 .332 .319 .263 85.9 13 1839 6.8 39.4 23.0 Displayed above is the pitch tracking data for Festa's 2024 season (praise be to Baseball Savant), if you look at pitch velocity or induced break (image attached) Festa's offerings look pretty average, but look to the Changeup and Slider's whiff rate. 39.4% and 29.1% is absolutely nuts and while the Changeup was hit hard on the very rare occasion someone put their bat to it those two pitches have been amazing at generating swing and miss leading to the really impressive strikeout numbers. The Fastball grades out well with above average ride but has been hit pretty hard and has by far been his least effective pitch so far, Festa's biggest issue though throughout his career has always been the control leading to too many walks and ballooning pitch counts, but I'm happy to report that this issue has gradually been decreasing across his time in the Twins organization to the point he was about league average in walks during his time with the Twins this season
Year Lg IP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2021 Rk,A 8.1 0.840 3.2 0.0 4.3 13.0 3.00 2022 A+,A 103.2 1.090 6.9 0.5 3.0 9.4 3.18 2023 AA,AAA 92.1 1.386 8.4 0.9 4.1 11.6 2.83 2024 AAA 60.1 1.359 8.4 1.3 3.9 13.3 3.42 2024 AL 64.1 1.321 8.7 1.3 3.2 10.8 3.35 Now looking Festa's rate stats since he was drafted we see that his BB/9 and WHIP have gradually decreased (with a low spike in his breakout 2022) while strikeouts have been steadily climbing, all this is a recipe for success and as long as he can continue to reign in the control of his pitches more and continue to generate the swing and miss he has year after year.
Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA 2024 36.6 25.1 29.7 8.6 40.0 37.1 22.9 4.0 28.0 25.1 26.9 7.4 8.6 5.4 MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8 Now it would be unfair of me to not talk about the issues with the long ball Festa has had to contend with in 2024. As you can see in the table above Festa is most definitely a fly ball pitcher (as are many of the Twins rotation) and that means when he gets hit hard, it can do big damage. Festa gave up more solid contact and barrels than average and that's definitely been a problem with his HR/9 jumping from .9 in 2023 to 1.3 through 2024 (across both MLB and AAA). However with the ability to miss bats and generate chases as much as Festa has this problem can be minimized, especially with an even small jump in control to help prevent his Fastball from being either really hittable or too far out of the zone.
 
All in all while Festa has shown some signs for concern there's so many of the building blocks of a top end starter there that I'm 100% on the hype train, and I hope I was able to convince you to have a bit of hope that the mythical Falvey pitching pipeline is finally bearing the fruit we all dreamed of back in 2016

I've followed the Twins for as long as I can remember. I am not going to pretend I've seen it all, but that makes the following statement come with deep thought and reflections before saying it aloud:

I have never been more angry at the end of a season and feel as disconnected from the baseball team I love and support as I do at this particular moment.

Just 52 short weeks ago, the Twins did something they had not done in nearly two decades. They won a playoff game.

In fact, they won back-to-back playoff games, which constituted a playoff series victory. Another thing they had not done in two decades. 

After giving a good punch to the Astros in the divisional series, the Twins bowed out of the postseason with three playoff victories and renewed fan excitement. I had not felt this much excitement about the Twins moving forward since the end of 2009 when they were about to move into a new stadium and were going to field a pretty damn good team. 

The Twins took out a full-page ad in the local papers and spammed this letter across their social media channels, doubling down on our excitement for what was supposedly going to come next. 
 


"Imagine what next season could be."

That full sense of excitement never made it to the 2024 regular season. That imagination of what 2024 could be never got even off the ground. 

Right at the beginning of Spring Training, Twins Executive Chair Joe Pohlad had an interview with WCCO Radio, and said the team was not adding any big-time free agents. Pohlad also added that the team's payroll - which had been slashed by $30 million in the offseason - was going to remain where it was presently at. 

Sonny Gray, who was a key cog in the Twins 2023 pitching staff, had already left in free agency. The Twins could have used another front-line starter to compliment Pablo Lopez. They didn't, opting to go with Chris Paddack and a rotating cast of rookies. 

Carlos Santana was the marquee free agent signing, but, with all respect, he was not going to fix what ailed the Twins in the ALDS against Houston: clutch hitting. 

After all that excitement and the fact the Twins just needed a few upgrades, they slashed the payroll and went back to shopping in the bargain bin like the 2000s Twins in the Metrodome. Frustration sank in about the lack of moves during the spring, but hope - as it always does every spring training - sprung eternal and you never know what a regular season will bring. 

Just inside the start of May, as the Twins were surging after a slow start, myself and a large portion of the fanbase lost the simple ability to view the team on television. Diamond Sports Group and Comcast could not agree on a new contract and all Bally Regional Sports Networks - which included the Twins' television home, Bally Sports North - was pulled off the cable giant. 

The Twins had the opportunity to go a different route for their TV options following 2023, but they re-upped their contract with Ballys for one year, knowing full well that this could happen. The Twins opted for the largest deal available to them, the same deal that was their excuse for slashing payroll, and lost a large chunk of fans on TV for the summer.

Sure, you could go find them on something called FUBO TV, but I had already cut cable before and had to go back to it after Diamond Sports group muscled my streaming service out of showing their games. I was not going down that road again. I'm sure I was not the only one in that boat either. 

For three months, I sat in the dark. If the game was big enough, I would find a less-than-ideal way to stream the game, but mostly I resorted to listening via radio or just following along with the beat writers via X if I was not attending the game. That was an incredibly frustrating and unideal way to follow your baseball team in 2024.
 
On August 1, the blackout on television lifted after the companies came to an agreement a few days prior. This also coincided with the trade deadline just passing. The Twins did nothing but add a reliever off the scrap heap who was released a month later. Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey would not commit to saying if payroll had anything to do with the lack of moves. Frustration sank in again as it appeared that ownership had prevented from the Twins baseball people doing anything meaningful to make this club better. 

Frustration also appeared to be prevalent in the Twins clubhouse after the deadline. Not ideal to see players speaking out about frustrations with lack of upgrades. Surely that will not show its head over the final months, right? RIGHT?

The back end of the rotation was lacking, the bullpen needed another quality arm or two, and hitting was problematic at times. But the Twins sat 59-48, six games back of Cleveland in the Central but well in a Wild Card spot in the AL. Mere hope for the best outcome was all we fans had for the final two months.

Hope did not carry long. 

Pitching fell apart, both in the rotation and bullpen, hitting went colder than a trip to the Arctic, and the Twins sank. Along with a late-season surge by Detroit, the Twins had a collapse for the ages. Nothing went right almost nightly, but at least we had them back on TV to watch uninspired baseball. 

The Twins were officially eliminated in the season's final week, but you might as well have called the coroner on the club on that final day of July when the trade deadline passed. 

Frustration for the season gave way to sheer anger. Anger that nothing more meaningful was done to improve the team leading up to the deadline. Nothing more meaningful was done to improve the team going back to the offseason. Anger that all the excitement we had for this baseball team one year ago has been so quickly washed away.

On the season's final day, as the entire state had its eyes gazed east to Wisconsin for an important football game, the Twins brass came out and spoke on the season's failures. 
 

Joe Pohlad spoke, putting his foot in his mouth again, reminding us fans that this is a business and he won't get into business decisions. 

(credit to Gleeman for putting Pohlad's feet to the fire here)


If I wanted to be spoonfed manure, my wife's uncle has a farm I can go visit anytime. I don't need to be given it from the local baseball team.

Pohlad mentions he has to "run this business for our team and our fans". Well, Joe, this season has been anything but "for the fans". So where can you tell me things were done for the fans? And if we fans voiced our displeasure in the ballpark, they were told to leave the ballpark and not return for a year. 

Good look, Joe. 

In a season in which one of our most prominent players in franchise history went into Cooperstown, and personally, I got to take my baby girl to baseball games, I am left feeling nothing but anger and distrust for what I, and the Twins fanbase, had to endure in 2024. I don't say these things lightly, but this is the reality of what has built up over the last year. 

The negatives horribly outweighed anything that was fun and good. That's what I'll remember about the 2024 season. 

And it will now take more than a couple of playoff wins to wash these feelings away. That's for damn sure. 

Looking at his numbers you can see that his ERA is higher then in years past.  Why is that and what has changed?  Looking at his traditional stat line you notice that he has given up more hits and twice as many walks compared to the last several years.  His strike out rate is the same.  And his homeruns per 9 innings is in line with his career average. 
Let’s dive deeper and look at more numbers.  He is giving up contact at similar rates.  His LD% is actually a full 1% lower than his career average.  His ground ball % is 7% higher than his career average and his flyball rate is down 3% from his career average. 
What I don’t know is if his stuff is less than years past things like fast fastball speed, spin rate on pitches resulting in movements.  What I can see is that it seems more ground ball hits are falling in than normal  Since the line drive % is down, I would think there is more luck / groundball hits going against him.  He is also walking twice as many hitters as he has in the past which is adding even more base runners.  And third.  This hasn’t been stated on here but with the bigger bases and more steals he has given up 7 stolen bases with no caught stealing.  Since 2020 3 was the most stolen bases against him in a season and no one has been caught against him this year. 
Theilbar’s effectiveness loss comes down to 3 things.  1.  More hits on the ground are getting through. 2.  Twice as many walks 3 base runners getting the jump on running to the next base.  1 of these is luck and the other two are tightening up on holding runners and throwing more strikes.  I do believe Theilbar can make a comeback and be good again next season but he has to tighten up his game. 
I would love to hear others thoughts and analysis on his season.  does anyone else think that a few teaks could have him being an effective middle reliever again?

Detroit Tigers in a fierce battle for a playoff spot. As the regular season winds down, the pressure is mounting. Despite flashes of brilliance this season, injuries and late-game collapses have plagued the Twins, raising doubts about their postseason hopes.
With just a handful of games left, every match is crucial. Veterans like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton must step up to guide younger players through this challenging stretch. The psychological impact of recent losses could weigh heavily on the team—will they rally together or succumb to self-doubt?
While the Twins still have a shot at the playoffs, they need to capitalize on every opportunity. The upcoming series against division rivals will be pivotal, shaping their postseason fate. As fans watch closely, they’re left wondering: can this team pull through, or are we witnessing another chapter of heartbreak? The fight for the playoffs is far from over, and hope still lingers, albeit tenuously.
Batting 
The Minnesota Twins fell short in yesterday’s game, managing to score only two runs despite several opportunities to add more. The team struggled to capitalize on key moments, leaving multiple runners stranded in scoring position. This pattern of missed chances has been a frustrating theme throughout the season.
As the game progressed, it became clear that the Twins had the potential to break the game open. They put together promising rallies, only to falter at crucial moments. Whether it was a strikeout with runners on base or a weak ground ball to an infielder, the inability to deliver in high-pressure situations cost them dearly. The frustration was palpable among players and fans alike, who watched as the potential for a big inning slipped away.
Each stranded runner not only affected the score but also impacted the team's momentum. With every missed opportunity, the energy on the field seemed to wane, creating an atmosphere of anxiety rather than confidence. This inconsistency has plagued the Twins throughout the season, raising questions about their ability to execute when it matters most.

Pitching
In yesterday's matchup against the Cleveland Guardians, the Minnesota Twins' pitching staff faced a challenging outing that ultimately contributed to a disappointing 4-2 loss. Despite a valiant effort, the Twins couldn’t contain the Guardians’ offense, which capitalized on key opportunities to secure the victory.
The Twins' pitchers collectively threw nine innings, allowing four earned runs on eight hits. The staff struggled with consistency, surrendering runs at critical moments and failing to escape jams. While they recorded five strikeouts, the lack of command often led to walks and hard-hit balls, putting extra pressure on the defense.
Starting pitcher [insert name] had an up-and-down performance. Though he showed flashes of brilliance with his strikeout capability, he also battled command issues that resulted in three earned runs. His inability to navigate through tough spots ultimately kept the Twins from gaining momentum in the game.
Relief efforts followed suit, with [insert reliever names] stepping in but unable to fully shut down the Guardians. Each pitcher faced moments where they could have minimized damage but fell short, leaving runners on base and allowing crucial hits that extended innings. The bullpen's struggles are a concerning trend as the team enters a critical part of the season.
The Twins' pitching woes were compounded by the lack of run support. With only two runs scored, there was little margin for error. The offense’s inability to capitalize on scoring chances placed additional strain on the pitchers, leading to a frustrating dynamic on the field.
As the regular season approaches its climax, the Twins need to address these pitching inconsistencies. With playoff contention on the line, every game is crucial, and the staff must find ways to tighten up their performance. Solid pitching is essential for the Twins to reclaim momentum and make a push for a postseason berth.
Moving forward, the Twins will need to regroup and focus on executing better both on the mound and at the plate. The challenges of yesterday's game serve as a reminder that every aspect of the game must come together for the team to succeed in this pivotal stretch. Fans remain hopeful that the pitching staff can rise to the occasion as the season nears its end.

Conclusion
The Minnesota Twins' recent performance against the Cleveland Guardians highlighted both the challenges and opportunities facing the team as they navigate a tight playoff race. Despite a valiant effort, the pitching staff struggled to contain the Guardians, allowing crucial runs that ultimately led to a disappointing 4-2 loss. Coupled with the offense’s inability to capitalize on scoring chances, leaving multiple runners stranded, the game underscored the need for improved execution in high-pressure situations.
As the regular season approaches its conclusion, every game becomes increasingly significant. The Twins must regroup, address their inconsistencies, and focus on solidifying their pitching and offensive strategies. With playoff aspirations still within reach, it’s essential for the team to harness their collective talent and rise to the occasion in the coming weeks.
Fans remain hopeful that the Twins can turn the tide, but the path forward requires not just talent, but a commitment to performance under pressure. The time for action is now, and the Twins have an opportunity to prove their resilience and determination as they strive for a spot in the postseason.

As we all know, the Minnesota Twins have struggled to find their rhythm recently, posting a disappointing 8-12 record over their last 20 games. This slump has raised serious concerns among fans and analysts alike, especially as the team's playoff hopes begin to dwindle. The Twins currently sit just half a game ahead of the Detroit Tigers, who are in hot pursuit for the third Wild Card spot.
With the season winding down, every game becomes critical. The pressure is mounting, and the Twins must find a way to turn things around if they hope to secure a playoff berth. The team's inconsistency at the plate has been particularly troubling, with key hitters struggling to maintain momentum and deliver in crucial situations. Defensively, lapses have also crept in, leading to missed opportunities and unearned runs that have cost the Twins valuable wins.
Moreover, the pitching staff, once seen as a strength, has faced its own challenges. Whether it’s injuries to key pitchers or inconsistent performances from the bullpen, the team needs to find a way to stabilize its pitching if they want to contend for the postseason.
With the Tigers breathing down their necks, every upcoming series is pivotal. The Twins need to capitalize on opportunities and rediscover the chemistry that fueled their earlier successes this season. Fans are hoping for a spark—whether it be a standout performance from a struggling star, a timely hit from a rookie, or simply a return to solid fundamentals.
As the days grow shorter in the regular season, the urgency for the Twins to win games has never been greater. If they can harness their talent and experience, there’s still a chance to write a thrilling conclusion to the season. However, they must act quickly; the clock is ticking, and every game counts in the race for October. 
 
Pitching
Over the last 20 games, the Minnesota Twins' starting pitchers have delivered impressive performances, providing the team with quality innings and keeping games competitive. Their consistency has been a bright spot in an otherwise challenging stretch for the team. However, the stark contrast in performance between the starters and the bullpen has raised significant concerns among fans and analysts alike.
Historically, the Twins' bullpen has been a reliable asset, particularly in the first half of the season. During this period, both the bullpen and starting rotation showcased exceptional depth and effectiveness. The relievers demonstrated the ability to close out games, maintain leads, and even contribute to some nail-biting victories. On paper, the stats reflected a strong unit, one that was well-equipped to support the starters and help secure crucial wins.
However, since the All-Star break, the bullpen has taken a noticeable downturn. This decline is alarming, especially given the high expectations set during the first half of the season. The drop in performance can be attributed to several factors, including increased workloads, injuries, and perhaps a lack of consistency in key moments.
As we analyze the numbers, it's clear that the bullpen's effectiveness has waned significantly. The earned run average has increased, and the strikeout rate has dropped, indicating a struggle to retire batters efficiently. Additionally, there have been issues with command, as evidenced by the rise in walks allowed. This combination has put extra pressure on the starters, who are often left with limited room for error.
The Twins must find a way to address these bullpen issues if they hope to remain competitive in the playoff race. A return to form for the relief corps is crucial, not only to support the outstanding efforts of the starting rotation but also to regain the confidence of the entire team. With each game becoming increasingly critical, it’s imperative for the bullpen to recapture the effectiveness it displayed earlier in the season.
In summary, while the starting pitching has been a beacon of hope, the struggles of the bullpen cannot be overlooked. As we head deeper into the season, finding solutions to restore the bullpen’s reliability will be vital for the Twins’ postseason aspirations.

The Bullpen has gone downhill since the end of the all star break
Hitting
Absolutely! Here’s a more detailed version:
As we all know, our hitters and starting pitching have been the standout aspects of this slumping Minnesota Twins team. Despite the recent struggles, these two elements have provided a glimmer of hope and excitement amidst the challenges.
The lineup has shown flashes of brilliance, with several players stepping up to deliver clutch performances. Key hitters have displayed the ability to drive in runs, showcasing their power and patience at the plate. Whether it’s timely home runs or critical base hits, the offense has managed to keep games competitive. This offensive depth is crucial, especially in a season where consistency has been hard to come by. When the bats come alive, they can quickly turn the tide in a game, and fans have witnessed some thrilling come-from-behind victories thanks to the resilience of our hitters.
On the mound, the starting pitching has been nothing short of impressive. Over the past few weeks, our starters have consistently delivered quality outings, eating up innings and minimizing damage. This has been particularly important as the team navigates a demanding schedule and faces pressure in critical games. The starting rotation has often given the Twins a fighting chance, allowing the offense to stay in games longer. Their ability to maintain composure and execute game plans has been a vital component in keeping the team afloat.
However, as strong as the hitters and starting pitchers have been, the overall performance has been hampered by inconsistency in other areas, particularly the bullpen. The disparity between the strong starts and the bullpen's struggles has put additional pressure on the offense to continuously produce runs. While our hitters and starters deserve recognition for their contributions, the Twins will need to find a way to harmonize these efforts with a more reliable relief corps to truly make a push for the playoffs.
As the season progresses, it’s crucial for the hitters to maintain their momentum and for the starting pitchers to continue delivering stellar performances. If the team can find a way to complement these strengths with improvements in the bullpen and overall consistency, the Twins could still turn the tide and make a significant impact as the postseason approaches.

Conclusion
One crucial example of the Twins’ struggles was highlighted in last night’s loss to the Cleveland Guardians. Despite a solid outing from our starting pitchers and some flashes of offensive potential, the team ultimately fell short. This game encapsulated the challenges the Twins have faced since the All-Star break: while our hitters and starting pitching have shown promise, the inconsistency of the bullpen has proved detrimental.
As we analyze the current state of the team, it’s clear that finding a way to bridge the gap between strong starting performances and the lackluster relief pitching is essential. The hitters need to recapture their momentum from the first half of the season to provide the necessary run support, while the bullpen must step up to relieve the pressure on our starters and protect leads has the tigers are 0.5 games back.
With the playoff race tightening and competitors like the Tigers lurking close behind, the Twins must make adjustments quickly. Each game counts, and if the team can align its strengths and address its weaknesses, there’s still hope for a successful run to the postseason. The coming weeks will be critical, and the resolve of the Twins will be tested as they strive to turn their fortunes around and reclaim their place among the league's contenders.

The recent series against their opponents, the Minnesota Twins, was marked by a challenging time in generating runs. Over the course of three games, the team only managed to score a total of 2 runs, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among both the team members and Manager Rocco Baldelli. The lackluster offensive performance left many fans and analysts questioning the team's capabilities and strategies. Following the series, Manager Rocco Baldelli issued a succinct statement conveying his disappointment with the team's performance before abruptly leaving the press conference, leaving no room for questions. He was openly critical, remarking, "That was an unprofessional series of baseball that was just played, and that's all I'm going to say about it." Baldelli's abrupt exit and terse comments only added to the air of tension surrounding the team. In addition to the manager's dissatisfaction, player Royce Lewis voiced his discontent regarding the decision to assign him to play second base. He expressed his frustration, emphasizing, "We have plenty of really good second basemen, and I don’t want to mess up our defense just because we’re going to try something new. It’s not spring training or Triple-A for that. I think we proved I’m an athlete. Now, let’s just keep playing normal baseball, play third, and win baseball games." These statements shed light on the internal discord and turmoil within the team, signaling the urgent need for the Twins to address both their offensive struggles and the internal conflicts. It's clear that the team is facing challenges not only on the field but also within the dynamics of the team itself. As the Twins strive to improve their performance in the upcoming games, it's evident that the team must work on resolving these issues to achieve a more cohesive and productive team dynamic. The team's recent batting average of .197 and a win percentage of .400 in their last 10 games have left the organization, fans, and players frustrated and concerned. It's imperative for the Twins to regroup, address these internal conflicts, and focus on improving their on-field performance to regain confidence and momentum. It will be crucial for the coaching staff and team management to facilitate open and constructive communication, address player concerns, and work towards a collective goal of overcoming both the external and internal challenges. The Twins have a talented roster and the potential to turn their season around, but it will require a concerted effort to address the issues highlighted by recent events and establish a more cohesive and focused approach moving forward.      

Bailey 7 IP  1 hit 0 walks 7K 83 pitches.
 
Hey here is an idea, lets pull him after retiring 15 straight batters, absolutely rolling (throwing a potential Maddux) and lets replace him with Duran who struggle sin the 8th.
Seriously?

Zebby Matthews made his 2024 debut in front of 663 fans at Rise 2 Greatness Field. Though the name of the Cedar Rapids Kernels home stadium comes from a local foundation, it seems Matthews took it as an order.  On August 13th, he completed his meteoric rise, making his MLB debut in front of 25,000 fans at Target Field. The young right-hander looked ready for the moment as well, pitching 5 solid innings, striking out 5 and only allowing 2 ER against a Royals lineup full of tough outs.
Matthews answered a call that night that the Twins will be making many times throughout the last month and a half of the season. With Joe Ryan recently joining rotation mate Chris Paddack on the IL, the Twins will see an influx of youth in their rotation behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. Make no mistake, Matthews and fellow youngsters David Festa and Louie Varland are no lambs being sent to the slaughter. The Twins have high hopes for their respective futures, but the future has come sooner than most expected.
Twins fans will surely be wondering how viable this fresh-faced rotation can be as the team looks to finish the season strong and lock in another playoff appearance. Fears may be running especially high with the failure to bolster the rotation at the deadline still visible in the rearview mirror. Historical precedent paints a mixed picture of the success one can expect from a young starting rotation, adding to the uncertainty.
Twins fans of a certain age will of course remember the rotation full of 20-somethings that the club rode to its second World Series championship in 1991 (and knowing many of those fans personally, they will also be sure to let you know that Pablo Lopez is no Jack Morris). In particular, Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson played massive roles despite having a combined 55 appearances in the majors entering the season. Those who’ve only watched those two play on grainy YouTube videos may instead point to recent Mariners teams or this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates as teams that leaned heavily on young pitchers and were rewarded well. Of course, someone more sadistic than I could likely name a laundry list of teams that placed their hopes in young starting pitchers and were routinely kicked in the teeth for it; I’ll choose optimism this time around.
With history being as muddled as it is, the best way to project the fortunes of the Twins rotation going forward is to take a clear-eyed look at its current state. Again, we’re left with reasons for both optimism and skepticism. The trio of Varland, Festa, and Matthews have all experienced success this season in the high minors, and Festa and Matthews are beginning to find places in the back end of national Top 100 Prospects lists. However, Varland and Festa have experienced significant ups and downs in their limited tastes of the majors, and Matthews is a complete unknown at the top level. Additionally, all three are late round draft picks that represent huge wins for the Twins’ player development, but also might leave nervous Twins fans wondering if an early push to the big leagues will abruptly halt their growth.
Even if all three pitchers beat the odds and find success down the stretch, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Pitching Coach Pete Maki will soon be dealing with the headaches of managing the health of their young arms. For one, all three pitchers are still trying to build up to a Major League workload, and in the meantime starts of 4 or 5 innings will increasingly become the norm. Unfortunately, whether your starter is 25 years old or 45, your team still needs to pitch all 9 innings. As such the Twins bullpen will be experiencing extra strain at a time when arms are already worn out by a long season.
Should the Twins achieve their goal of making the postseason, a whole new set of challenges will present themselves. Though all three pitchers deserve credit for the poise they’ve shown so far on MLB mounds, a postseason atmosphere is an entirely different mental challenge (think: about 80 times the turnout Zebby Matthews saw at Rise 2 Greatness Field). Additionally, the trio of young pitchers would be gameplanned against to an extent far beyond what they’ve ever seen, and making in-game adjustments is a trait usually attributed to experience.
Whatever your personal level of optimism, it’s undeniable that the Twins' hand being forced in this way only makes a playoff run more difficult. Of course, this is no fault of Varland, Festa, or Matthews. The Twins front office had their chance to bolster their ranks at the trade deadline, and chose to place their bets on what they had. The fact that those bets have shifted to much less proven commodities is unfortunate, but not unpredictable. On the other hand, each of these young men had to come up and pitch at some point, and all three have momentum behind them that could propel them to a strong finish this season. Everyone within the organization has preached belief in this trio, but that’s easy to do when they’re honing their craft away from the spotlights and cameras. These young men have now been propelled into the fire of an MLB pennant chase. How they handle the heat will be a primary factor in determining the Twins’ ultimate fate.
This article was originally posted on my personal blog, Northern Platitudes.

Comments over the last few days to get to the playoffs have been, Twins may need to go 21-15  over final 36.  Let's dive into our road vs Cleveland.
TWINS:  AWAY Padres (1) - HOME Cardinals (3), Braves (3), Blue Jays (3) - AWAY Rays (4), Royals (3), HOME - Angels (3), Reds (3), - AWAY Guardians (4) Red Sox (3) - HOME Marlins (3) & Orioles (3) ...  21 Home Games and 15 Away games
GUARDIANS: AWAY Yankees (2) - HOME Rangers (3), Royals (4), Pirates (3) - AWAY Royals (3), Dodgers (3), White Sox (3) - HOME Rays (4) Twins (4), AWAY Cards (3), Reds (2) - HOME Astros (3) ... 21 Home Games and 16 Away games
So stretch run could be very exciting or a debbie downer quickly depending on how we close out August.  Equal amount of home vs away games but the big 4 AWAY are at the Guards.  Would have been nice to get them at HOME where maybe the crowd could give the team some extra juice.  
According to Tankathon website - the remaining strength of schedule is:  TWINS have 10 hardest and GUARDIANS 11 hardest 

Basically even from hear on out on paper, but playing Guards at their place may be the difference in winning division or just getting into playoffs.  KC has the toughest road with 4 division leaders left on schedule, Guards have 4 division leaders left and Twins just 2.
24 games before the Guardian series, if Twins can go 16-6 or better, then game on to win division.
Go Twins
 
 

Throughout the 2024 season, the Twins have received contributions from several young players, the most unlikely of whom has been Zebby Matthews. The Twins selected the 24-year-old righthander out of Western Carolina University in the eighth round of the 2022 MLB Draft. During his first full season in the minor leagues, Zebby threw 105.1 innings, striking out 112, walking 15, and finishing the season with a 3.84 ERA. The Twins’ front office then tweaked his mechanics, as they have done to other tall, righthanded mid-round draft picks like Baily Ober, Louie Varland, David Festa, and Joe Ryan. 
Zebby Matthews started the 2024 season with the Twins’ high-A affiliate. He pitched in just four games for the Kernels, going 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA while striking out 28 batters without walking anyone across 22.2 innings. The Twins quickly moved Zebby to AA, where he continued to dominate. Through 55.1 innings, he had a 1.95 ERA with a 63:6 K: BB ratio. Then, after his promotion to AAA, he struggled for the first time in his professional career.  He had a 5.68 ERA (over 19 innings), but he struck out 23 batters while walking only one. Zebby’s stats across all levels of the 2024 season are unbelievable:  He’s thrown 97 innings, striking out 114 batters and walking only 7. Seven!  His incredible command of the strike zone, mixed with improved velocity and spin rates, led to a 2.60 ERA and a 0.866 WHIP. 
Despite the rough patches at AAA, injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddock forced the Twins to call Zebby to the big leagues. He answered that call, as he looked much more experienced than a player with just two minor-league seasons. He took the mound in a pivotal game against the Royals and outdueled Cy Young candidate Seth Lugo while the offense took care of the rest. Matthews threw five innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits, striking out five, and, not surprisingly, walking no one. Of his 77 pitches, he threw 38 fastballs (averaging 95 mph), 16 sliders, 15 cutters, four curveballs, and four change-ups. He threw 49 strikes with a whiff rate of 18% and a chase rate of 26%. His one mistake of the night came on a cutter, which MJ Melendez sent over the wall in right-center. 
Zebby Matthews pitched well. The Twins could not have asked for more from an inexperienced rookie who started the year in high-A. He took the mound during a playoff race against an inner-division rival, and he overshadowed one of this season’s best pitchers. This should give the Twins some optimism - his performance will likely earn him an extended look in the big leagues during the rest of the season. Zebby is a big part of the Twins’ future, but a solid stretch to end the season could earn him a spot on a potential playoff roster, whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. 




 

In classic Twins fashion, we saved our run of poor injury luck for just after the trade deadline (not that we would've traded for anybody any good anyway), leaving the team short at some important positions. It's August, the time when a young Front Office's heart turns to that classic rebound refuge – the waiver wire. I thought it might be interesting to have a place where people can put in the names of anybody they think is available on waivers that would actually help the Twins either as AAA depth or on the current 26 man roster. I actually have three candidates:
Ahmed Rosario - The Dodgers just put Rosario on waivers after trading for him due to a roster crunch when Mookie Betts came back. Rosario is actually hitting .305/.331/.435 (.746), and plays a decent shortstop and very good second base. I love me some Willie Castro at the plate playing second base or in the outfield, but he is no shortstop and we don't have one with Correa out. Rosario will get claimed on waivers with only $387,000 left on his contract for the year so we may not get a chance but I think he is definitely worth a claim and would make this team better this year. Martin can go back to AAA to make room on the roster. Also, having Castro go to centerfield may help us if Buxton is down for a couple of weeks with "right hip soreness".
Jake Diekman - Left-handed relief pitcher waived by the Mets. Not having a good year this year, 5.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but had a 3.34 ERA last year in 56 innings. He's 37 so maybe he's just falling off a cliff, but it's worth finding that out. He's passed through waivers so would only have to be paid the prorated share of the veterans minimum. I think he's definitely worth a call, particularly if you will go and pitch at AAA for a week or two for evaluation. We need a left-handed reliever – Okert is mediocre at best, Theilbar may be cooked, and Funderburk has yet to show his MLB worthy. I don't think Richards is going to solve the problem as a reverse split pitcher.
Brad Keller - Boy, do we need starting pitching death desperately. One more injury and we are toast if we aren't already. Keller just opted to become a free agent from  the Red Sox because they optioned him back to AAA when a couple guys came off the IL. He is only 29, and his history shows a guy who's a started a lot of games with a 4.5 - 5.10 ERA, doesn't walk very many guys, but doesn't strike out a lot either. Pretty Meh, but the Twins have taken guys like this and upped their velocity to make them better. I think he's definitely worth a try at AAA and would be a better sixth starter than Randy Dobnak. 
If you believe MLB Trade Rumors, there are several other veterans who could hit the waiver wire in the next couple of weeks as teams falling out of contention pare salary. Their list is of course behind a pay wall but if last year is any indication, we could see some prominent names whose contracts are expiring out there and available. I would expect some DFA news coming out of Texas, Toronto, Tampa, Miami, Oakland, and maybe even from Washington, the Angels, or the White Sox involving guys on expiring contracts that the team doesn't expect to have next year. We are frankly rapidly running out of players, particularly in the rotation, bullpen, and at shortstop. There ain't much at AAA that we haven't already brought up. Let's leave no stone unturned and try to find guys.
I'd love to hear any other suggestions
 

I don't know how many times I've seen the Twins' ownership all lumped together as a singular, static entity. Similar to the entity known as "Falvine" or that childhood couple who got the blended name like Nateiffer or whatever. The perceived sins of the father infect the rest of the family by association like the way people go after the blood relations of presidents. The arguments surround the Twins being owned by misers who hurt the team's chance of being successful because they won't pay competitive salaries. Inconceivably large numbers get thrown around and ranks are used to provide a convenient reference furthering the commenter's opinion. But, just how does the Twins' historical payroll stack up in a visual way? A way which can better illustrate at a glance how competitive they've been. Is Carl the same as Jim? Are the Twins the franchise today as they were 20 years ago?

What does 16th or 19th rank look like? See for yourself how the Twins stack up historically, all the way back to 1988 based on data from The Baseball Cube. 2024 data comes from Spotrac so the methodology might be a bit different. You can see some major trends and how baseball competition levels were affected by changes to the CBA and television, etc. Up until about 1990, the differences from the haves to the have nots wasn't so huge. The Twins were right in the thick of things as one of the upper payroll teams. A paradigm shift occurred and baseball competition levels would never be the same. Another shift in the late 90s changed the landscape yet again. Suddenly, the gap became massive, and Carl Pohlad opted for the bare minimum cost philosophy as the Twins secured the lowest payrolls in MLB. Contraction didn't happen, and Twins payrolls rose to about the bottom of the 3rd quartile of teams until Target Field. When Target Field opened, Carl Pohlad was dead with his son, Jim, having taken over. Jim pushed payroll up a full bracket and more closely followed the bottom of the 2nd quartile of teams. Right about dead mid market combined from 2010-2022, but it appears there's another shift going on.


 
Payrolls and revenues are trending up, and the Pohlad family appear to be more committed to trend back to the days of their father, and the Metrodome as attendance falters. Carl Pohlad was a miser. While generous from a charitable standpoint, and an honorable man with multiple purple hearts, a bronze star with clusters and a fantastic personal reputation amongst the people who knew him, he did not accept losses from businesses, and the Twins were a business to him. Carl's first love was football, and he actively attempted to purchase a controlling interest in the Minnesota Vikings, but was rebuffed because he owned a controlling interest in the Twins already. I have to wonder if Jim is getting miserly as he ages? Frustration with attendance and an inability to get a new stadium built led Carl to cut the payroll down to the bottom of the barrel and field more than a handful of terrible, non-competitive teams while threatening to sell the team to a party who would move the franchise out of state or even potentially contract the team entirely. This new philosophy for the Twins' ownership on the back of frustration with attendance potentially signals it's time for the Pohlads to sell the team to an owner with better business sense because Twins revenue shouldn't be as low as it is. Poorly negotiated TV deals, poor marketing and a lack of accountability at the head of the organization have allowed ownership to assume revenues are fixed so costs must be cut rather than understanding how to expand revenues to keep the team competitive with mid-market teams.

The Pohlads also appear to lack understanding of how team payrolls work. Joe Pohlad pointed to the Orioles as an example, but Baltimore has fielded a payroll higher than the Twins in 21 of the past 37 seasons (57%) including 3 seasons above the maximum payroll in Twins' history despite a much smaller market than Minneapolis. The Orioles recently employed the tank Astros philosophy of the 2010s initiating a total burn down of their roster with the willingness to field the worst teams in baseball year in and out while undertaking a massive rebuild. Now in a competitive window, Baltimore is once again expanding their payroll rapidly, and I expect they'll surpass the Twins once again next season. Baltimore would never have burned down a team in their prime competitive window.

This new (old) Pohlad philosophy is not only a poor look, it's a disservice to the fans, and the taxpayers who built Target Field with the expectation ownership would keep their end of the bargain and fund the team appropriately. It reeks of panic, frustration, poor business management, and dysfunction. If this is what the Pohlads bring to the table now, it's best to find fresh new ownership with a better philosophy.

What is an “Ace”?

There is no accepted definition for a pitcher earning the moniker “ace” which leads to all kind of friendly to less friendly debates when the declaration pitcher A is or is not an “ace.”

For me, an ace pitcher needs to have a few things on their resume.
1. An ERA of 3.39 or lower or a combination of history and FIP/SIERA/xFIP which suggests their ERA should be in that category
2. Long streaks of starts with 5.0+ (usually 6.0+) innings and ERA’s under 4.00 in those starts. We’re talking a bare minimum of 4, but often 5 or 6+ games in a row.
3. A pattern of starts which suggests the long streaks are earned by seeing consistent starts with FIPs below 4.00.

The basic gist is a pitcher where you don’t hope they pitch well, you just expect it’s a near automatic win when they start for you. A pitcher you have confidence to deliver a great start against whatever team or opposing pitcher they start against.

Item’s #2 and #3 separate “aces” from pitchers who’ve been lucky over a few starts or are up and down where you don’t really know what to expect from them on the mound. Jose Berrios was never an ace in my book. At his peak, he was a back end #2 or high end #3, but his bonus was just how much of a work horse he really was. He’d generally go 3 starts between hiccups like a typical mid rotation guy. Again, it’s the difference between expectation and hope.

Taking a look at the top 5 fWAR starting pitchers with 70+ innings (gets us to 128 total) this season and compare them to the Twins’ starters, you can see clear distinctions between what I consider to be an “ace” level pitcher, and our rotation. Ober has been the best starter for the Twins this year, but it’s clear he’s in a different class than the “aces.” I’ve also added trade interest kind of guys. Fedde, Flaherty, Kikuchi, Eflin, Eovaldi, Sears, Rogers, Lorenzen and Berrios' 2021 to the mix for comparisons. Berrios was that borderline #2 guy. He mostly pitched well enough to deserve a #2 monkier, but the results weren't quite up to how consistent he needed to be on the mound.




QS2 is my definition of a qualified start. 5.0+ innings pitched, ERA of 3.99 or lower. If a pitcher leaves the game with an ERA under 4.00, there's a good chance their team only needs to score 4 runs to win the game, and that should happen well over 50% of the time. If they leave the game with an ERA of 4.00 or higher, there's a good chance their team will need to score 5 runs or more to win the game, and that has a dramatic impact on likelihood of a win. Every run allowed by a team between 0 and 5 causes a major shift in likelihood of winning, and that's just a fact. Allowing more than 5, well, the odds shift less and less because you're already hosed if you have to ask your offense to put up more than 6.
FIP2 is the same, but an FIP of 3.99 or lower
Max Streak is the number of starts in a row where the pitcher manages a QS2
Streaks 4+ is how many of those 4 game streaks the pitcher has put together this year

Some guidelines you'll probably start recognizing if you look at pitchers in this way
70%+ on the QS2/FIP2 with 5+ game streaks is about the land of the ace.
60-70% is the land of the #2 with 4 game streaks
50-60% is the land of the #3 with 3 game streaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
below the line are not really playoff caliber starters. They're guys who might get a start, but not guys you want starting a pivotable game.
40-50% is the land of the #4 with less than 3 game streaks
39% and lower is the land of the #5 with less than 3 game streaks

Bailey Ober has been the best pitcher on the Twins this year, but he's a clear gap away from the land of ace pitchers. He's probably in the #2 starter category right now, really pitching well. Lopez is next in line, but he honestly falls into the #3 bracket so far this year as he hasn't been consistent enough yet. Hopefully, he's better in the second half. The Twins really need him to step it up. Joe Ryan has consistently performed under his FIP, and he hasn't been reliable when it comes to putting up my definition of a quality start. He's pretty similar to 2021 Jose Berrios, though a bit less reliable. Borderline in the #3 category, I'd say. SWR is a bit of an oddball. Totally unreliable with good start, bad start, good start, bad start. No idea what you're getting with him, right on the border of #3-4 for me. Paddack falls into the #5 rotation arm category. The 35% FIP2% is just too bold to ignore. All in all, I'd say the Twins have a mismatch at the top of the rotation against other playoff teams, but we're deep with quality starters after that. Lopez and Ober are the key to the Twins playoff rotation. If Ober can keep it up and Lopez can pick it up, we may roll into the playoffs with 2 #2 guys, and a solid #3. Not quite where you'd like to be, but competitive.  If Lopez sticks where he's at, the Twins will likely be at a clear disadvantage in the first 2 starts for the series, and potentially the 3rd.

If the Twins' bats can bail them out in game 1 of a playoff series, I like the Twins' chances against almost any other team. If the opponent's ace skunks us out of the gate like Wheeler or Skubal did recently, we're going to have a real tough row to hoe coming back IMHO.

We Twins Daily readers will no longer be subject to the slew of fantasy articles written about potential trade targets and moves the Twins should make,

I do need to admit that I was wrong.  After preaching for weeks that the Twins were not going to add salary via trade, they did add about $700k.  Quite a boon for a -0.4 RP this year