TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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The Scariest Spot on the Twins’ Depth Chart
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Cody has made a great point with SS being our biggest weakness. None of us expects Brooks Lee to ever be anything more than an average MLB SS. No organization should be willing to accept a situation like this. In fact, many people are already speculating that Lee will move off of SS in the very near future. True, we have young prospects like Culpepper and Houston and an excellent chance to end up with the prize of the amateur draft next year in Roch Cholowsky, the SS from UCLA. But the goal should be improving the position for the short term and let the long term solutions (Culpepper, Houston, maybe Cholowsky) sort themselves out in a year or two. My plan would be to offer the D-Backs Bailey Ober (20.4 value in BBTV) for Jordan Lawler (19.4 value). Lawler was once the top rated player in the D-Backs system. He's a SS who can also play 3B and 2B. He's hit extremely well in AAA but has not when given a chance at the major league level. But he has less than 100 AB's in the last 2 seasons. Quite simply, his star has fallen in Arizona and he's buried behind Geraldo Perdomo at SS. Perdomo is just 26 years old and last year posted an .851 OPS to go along with a stellar glove. Perdomo isn't moving aside for anyone. The other player blocking Lawler is All Star 2B Ketel Marte. The D-Backs need pitching, and now they will be losing Zac Gallen from their rotation on top of being deficient in SP in 2025. They may be open to an Ober for Lawler trade. Lawler is 23 years old (Lee is 24). Their fielding percentages at SS are very close (Lawler .977 Lee .974) but Lawler has much greater range. In my opinion, Lawler would be an excellent gamble to take. He's shown all he can at AAA and hit the heck out of the ball. He's more athletic than Lee but has positional flexibility at 2B & 3B for when Culpepper, Houston and hopefully Roch Cholowsky would play their way into the mix.- 36 replies
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3 Recently DFAd Players Minnesota Twins Should Pursue
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the Twins should be trading for a younger 1B with the strategy of solving the Black Hole we've had there for years. My target would be Tristan Casas of the Red Sox. That said, if Nate Lowe could be signed for 2 years at $6-$7 million per year that would at least stabilize the position and allow for others to either emerge from our minor league system or someone like Lewis "grow" into the position. Lowe has also won a Gold Glove at 1B. He's an actual living, breathing 1B. Guys like Wallner or Larnach will never really be a 1B. And imagine how many runs they would allow to score because they couldn't come up with a throw in the dirt. 1B isn't just for guys that can't run anymore. Rod Carew could still run, and he became a pretty good 1B. Multiple time Gold Glove 1B with the Dodgers-Wes Parker had excellent speed and on-base ability, but no power. And the current example of an excellent 1B who can still run and who saves his team multiple runs by coming up with bad throws is Freddy Freeman. I think there are a sizable number of guys who post on TD that have no idea how BAD an experiment at 1B would go with Wallner and Lanach, each of which have NO IDEA how to play 1B.- 50 replies
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- dauri moreta
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Well, this is certainly a nice development for a Saturday morning !!! I'm always surprised when players suffer injuries and miss games during the season (not just 10-20 games, but a number more significant) that they don't latch onto a Caribbean Winter League team and just get some AB's or innings pitched. After seeing the contingent the Twins sent to the AFL, I've got to believe the competition and atmosphere of the Dominican Winter League is far superior. Not only did E-Rod stay healthy, but the sentence that caught my eye was how he was hitting the ball hard to ALL fields. I think it's why he posted a .292 average. Pull-side power is great, but being able to hit the ball where it's pitched, use the entire field and not fall into the "pull everything for power" hole is a key development for any hitter. Especially a young one. E-Rod is 22 years old. If he plays well in spring training and if Larnach is indeed traded (which I fervently hope he is) it opens an opportunity for E-Rod to play in the majors sooner, rather than later. The other aspect of his game that encourages me is that he's always been a good defender. The sooner the Twins get Larnach and Wallner out of the corner OF spots and players like E-Rod and Jenkins out there, the Twins will take a big step forward defensively, and if there is a Ryan or Ober trade, that should bring back players that are also good defensive players, whether that's in the IF, OF or behind the plate. There are many things that have made the Cleveland Guardian Indians the most consistently good team in the A.L. Central. Good SP and a lights out BP for sure, but they are not just the best defensive team in the A.L. Central, but consistently one of the best in all of baseball. Kwan, Ramirez, Gimenez when he was on the team were all Gold Glove winners. The Twins need to get back to being a GOOD defensive team. And better corner OF play would help a LOT.
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The only reason I can see for tendering Larnach is that they have a trade in place with someone. DJL44 mentioned at the top of the comments that Spencer Steer is a possible trade candidate with the Reds. Larnach could see quite a nice bump in his hitting and power production hitting in Cincinnati. The Reds could use some LH hitting. Steer would be a great one-for-one trade if that's the case. He would step right in at 1B and allow the Twins to say "farewell" to Eddie Julien. He would also give the Twins a decent RH hitter in their lineup. Steer fits the idea of good defense, speed and athleticism and positional versatility the Twins are supposedly embracing now. Clemens makes sense as a LH hitting platoon/utility player but Julien has no future with the Twins. But maybe I'm giving this FO waaay too much credit if they've already got a Larnach for Steer deal agreed to in principle. There were plenty of guys that could have been removed from the 40-man roster. It's a shame the Twins won't at least have the option to consider someone for the Rule 5 draft.
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- ryan jeffers
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So is he being tendered a contract with the idea that the team he's being traded to has approved this?
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- trevor larnach
- ryan jeffers
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Twins Add Catching Depth with Early Offseason Swap
TopGunn#22 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
We will have plenty of time to nitpick possible trades involving Ryan, Lopez, Wallner, Ober, (maybe Larnach) and yes, even Ryan Jeffers. We gave up on a pint-sized middle IF who the Twins have a myriad of guys in their system they like better. We added a potential backup catcher that has flashed some power in the minor leagues who by all accounts is a capable defensive catcher. At $1.8 million, some are thinking he's an extravagance for a backup catcher. Not compared to $10 million per season for the last 3 years !!! (Vasquez). I am not expecting this guy to be the 2nd coming of Earl Battey. But Tim Laudner ? Possibly. We added depth to a position where the system's best prospects are 2-3 years away. That's a WIN as far as I'm concerned. Olivar hasn't even made it to AAA yet. Cardenas is the better prospect and at least he's in AAA but with Tait and Jimenez at least a ways away, I'm OK with this move. And I'd also suggest that this move in no way lessens the possibility that Jeffers could still be moved in a trade. Especially if the Twins have a young, current or soon to be major league catcher on their trade wish-list this winter. -
I would have swapped Keaschall out for Wallner. I know the sample size is small, but Keaschall certainly looks like a foundational piece going forward. Buxton is the Wild Card in this list. If he wants out, it will be hard to mollify him and keep him in the fold. They will never get anything close to value for a Superstar caliber player at $15 million per year. Teams like Atlanta, Philly or the Dodgers would look at that as a drop in the bucket. However, I agree with the idea that WHAT we get back in a trade involving Ryan or Lopez could meet with Buxton's approval. Ryan and Lopez are certainly both high possibility trade candidates. I trade Ryan NOW with his value at a high level and try to bring a solid major leaguer back. Jarren Duran even up? Duran would be a top of the order hitter providing excellent defense and baserunning (and Buxton Insurance). So how about a trade of Ryan 52.7 and Jeffers 12.7 (65.4 Total) to the Red Sox for Duran 49.5, Tristan Casas 13.5 and Connor Wong 2.4 (65.4 Total). Wong takes over as the primary backstop (he hit .280 with an OPS of .758 while catching 106 games in 2024). Noah Cardenas can back him up. Duran upgrades the OF defense tremendously and Casas moves in as the 1B with 30-HR potential. Or how about: Ryan and Jeffers (65.4 Total) for Wilyer Abreu 26.2, Tristan Casas 13.5 Wong, 2.4 and one of either Payton Tolle LH SP 22.7, Kristian Campbell 24.2 (2B/CF) or Franklin Arias 22.1 (SS). Accepting Abreu instead of Duran allows for the addition of either Tolle, Campbell or Arias. The Red Sox do this because it gives them an All Star #2 SP behind Crochet and a catching tandem if Jeffers/Narvaez. The Twins do it because Jeffers would be gone after this season and Ryan no longer fits their window with young SP's knocking on the door for opportunities. Abreu is a Gold Glove OF who alongside Buxton improves the OF defense immensely and who has 30-HR potential. Casas is your 1B and Wong your primary Catcher. The extra player the Twins get comes down to a young, promising LH SP in Tolle who could also allow the Twins the opportunity to trade another SP (possibly Ober). Campbell gives the Twins a 2B/CF candidate if they want Keaschall to play some 1B and/or LF. Arias is a talented 21 year old SS who is blocked by Trevor Story and Marcello Meyer. I'm trading Matt Wallner this off season. Getting Duran or Abreu with Jenkins, Em-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez on the way makes trading Wallner a lock. I'd look at Seattle for Harry Ford (#2 catcher candidate in 0226, future #1 Catcher) or use Wallner for either one of the White Sox young Catchers, OR, Jefferson Quero of the Brewers (stuck behind William Contreras). So let's imagine the Twins trade Ryan and Jeffers to the Red Sox for Abreu. Casas, Wong and Payton Tolle and they trade Wallner to the White Sox for Edgar Quero. The Twins lineup could look like this: C E. Quero/Wong 1B Casas 2B Keaschall SS Brooks Lee (Culpepper) 3B Lewis RF Abreu CF Buxton LF Roden (Em-Rod/Walker Jenkins) DH Rotating Players. Admittedly, LF is not ideal but Roden could surprise. There is also the possibility of an Ober treade either this winter or at the deadline adding talent. Rotation: Lopez, Bradley, (Ober)? Tolle, SWR, Matthews, Abel, possibly Prielipp. This lineup is younger, more athletic and much better defensively, especially if Culpepper progresses and takes the job from Lee. The payroll also falls giving the Twins the space to add a proven closer like Ryan Helsley to anchor the BP at $10 million. This type of off season plan would allow the team a chance, however slim, to compete in the A.L. Central while building a promising future with a future lineup with Abreu, Casas, Edgar Quero, Keaschall, Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Em-Rod and MAYBE Roch Cholowsy!! With a young rotation full of potential led by a sage veteran.
- 23 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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I would have swapped Keaschall out for Wallner. I know the sample size is small, but Keaschall certainly looks like a foundational piece going forward. Buxton is the Wild Card in this list. If he wants out, it will be hard to mollify him and keep him in the fold. They will never get anything close to value for a Superstar caliber player at $15 million per year. Teams like Atlanta, Philly or the Dodgers would look at that as a drop in the bucket. However, I agree with the idea that WHAT we get back in a trade involving Ryan or Lopez could meet with Buxton's approval. Ryan and Lopez are certainly both high possibility trade candidates. I trade Ryan NOW with his value at a high level and try to bring a solid major leaguer back. Jarren Duran even up? Duran would be a top of the order hitter providing excellent defense and baserunning (and Buxton Insurance). So how about a trade of Ryan 52.7 and Jeffers 12.7 (65.4 Total) to the Red Sox for Duran 49.5, Tristan Casas 13.5 and Connor Wong 2.4 (65.4 Total). Wong takes over as the primary backstop (he hit .280 with an OPS of .758 while catching 106 games in 2024). Noah Cardenas can back him up. Duran upgrades the OF defense tremendously and Casas moves in as the 1B with 30-HR potential. Or how about: Ryan and Jeffers (65.4 Total) for Wilyer Abreu 26.2, Tristan Casas 13.5 Wong, 2.4 and one of either Payton Tolle LH SP 22.7, Kristian Campbell 24.2 (2B/CF) or Franklin Arias 22.1 (SS). Accepting Abreu instead of Duran allows for the addition of either Tolle, Campbell or Arias. The Red Sox do this because it gives them an All Star #2 SP behind Crochet and a catching tandem if Jeffers/Narvaez. The Twins do it because Jeffers would be gone after this season and Ryan no longer fits their window with young SP's knocking on the door for opportunities. Abreu is a Gold Glove OF who alongside Buxton improves the OF defense immensely and who has 30-HR potential. Casas is your 1B and Wong your primary Catcher. The extra player the Twins get comes down to a young, promising LH SP in Tolle who could also allow the Twins the opportunity to trade another SP (possibly Ober). Campbell gives the Twins a 2B/CF candidate if they want Keaschall to play some 1B and/or LF. Arias is a talented 21 year old SS who is blocked by Trevor Story and Marcello Meyer. I'm trading Matt Wallner this off season. Getting Duran or Abreu with Jenkins, Em-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez on the way makes trading Wallner a lock. I'd look at Seattle for Harry Ford (#2 catcher candidate in 0226, future #1 Catcher) or use Wallner for either one of the White Sox young Catchers, OR, Jefferson Quero of the Brewers (stuck behind William Contreras). So let's imagine the Twins trade Ryan and Jeffers to the Red Sox for Abreu. Casas, Wong and Payton Tolle and they trade Wallner to the White Sox for Edgar Quero. The Twins lineup could look like this: C E. Quero/Wong 1B Casas 2B Keaschall SS Brooks Lee (Culpepper) 3B Lewis RF Abreu CF Buxton LF Em-Rod/Walker Jenkins DH Rotating Players. Admittedly, LF is not ideal as I see Em-Rod and Jenkins as Mid-May additions. I could see a trade of Ober filling LF. Rotation: Lopez, Bradley, (Ober)? Tolle, SWR, Matthews, Abel, possibly Prielipp. This lineup is younger, more athletic and much better defensively, especially if Culpepper progresses and takes the job from Lee. The payroll also falls giving the Twins the space to add a proven closer like Ryan Helsley to anchor the BP at $10 million. This type of off season plan would allow the team a chance, however slim, to compete in the A.L. Central while building a promising future with a future lineup with Abreu, Casas, Edgar Quero, Keaschall, Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Em-Rod and MAYBE Roch Cholowsy!! With a young rotation full of potential led by a sage veteran.
- 23 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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Larnach doesn't really have a future with the Twins. Not with the young guns coming up and the acquisitions of Roden and Outman last deadline. Both Roden and Outman are much better defensive OF than Larnach. Roden has the potential to be a solid hitter as well. Outman at least hit 23 HR's one year for Dodgers. There WOULD be value in letting Larnach go for nothing IF...IF...the Pohlad family and Falvey decided to reinvest the $5 million saved on an area of need for the team. The Twins have no Closer on the roster at this point. Nobody who even comes close. Camilo Doval has closing experience. The Yankees may not bring him back, His price tag seems to be in the $6 million dollar range. Would the Yankees be interested in a dead pull, LH hitter in their stadium? They have in the past. Maybe Larnach just isn't what they're looking for. But if I was the Twins GM I'd have already spoken to the Yankees about a possible trade of Larnach for Doval. If there's interest, GREAT ! If not, I search elsewhere. It's hard to be a Twins fan because there are zero indications there will be anything done to improve the team this off season. Especially with stories coming out how Clemens and Julien are being counted on for major contributions in 2026. We're all in the dark when it comes to the Twins. But most of us know losing Larnach won't really hurt too bad.
- 62 replies
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- trevor larnach
- ryan jeffers
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From the list, I think I like the potential of Beck the most. I like that his command is near elite and the plus fastball/plus slider combo is the stuff of bullpen stalwarts. I also agree that we have at least FIVE spots on our current 40-man roster that could easily be upgraded. There is a lot of talent in minor league baseball that gets overlooked or wasted. I'm anxious to see the "position player" Rule 5 candidates, because if there is a talented Catcher or 1B, (maybe even a SS even though Culpepper is close) I'd be open to selecting TWO Rule 5 players...Beck and a hitter. We are clearly deficient in 1B talent at the major league level and minor leagues as well. We have a potentially decent Catcher in Noah Cardenas but I'd like to learn more about Creed Willems as well.
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- peter heubeck
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I think Detroit will do everything they CAN to extend Skubal. But sometimes it's just not meant to be. As a comparison, consider Johan Santana. I think the Twins desperately wanted to keep Santana, but the reality was that there was such a bigger salary waiting in free agency that it just wasn't realistic for the Twins to keep him at that price point. On top of that, pitchers are notoriously "breakable." The Twins were forced to trade Santana to the Mets for a package of prospects. None of them really worked out. But it was either trade Santana and have something to show for it, or let him walk and get nothing. Santana only lasted 3 seasons for the Mets, who weathered that storm the best they could, but could you imagine the Twins trying to do that in 2008? With Joe Mauer's big payday around the corner? Both Detroit and Pittsburg are in the same boat. They each have the BEST pitcher in their league and it's almost impossible to determine which one is better. But in the economic landscape MLB is in right now, there are definite "Haves" and "Have Nots." I see the Pirates backed up against the same wall as the Tigers. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Giants or Mets would appear to be where both Skubal and Skenes will someday end up. The difference between Pittsburg, Detroit and Minnesota is that the Pirates and Tigers MUST come up with better trades than the Twins did for Santana. And the risk to the Tigers or Pirates if they agree to a $500 million dollar contract with either of their star pitchers and they suffer an injury that causes their Ace to miss a season or worse, end a career is a financial hole that a Pittsburg or Detroit can't dig out of. To a Dodgers or Yankees, with the resources they have, they could find a way to mitigate the damage. Not so for Pittsburg and Detroit. It's an unpleasant reality to the economic landscape in MLB that will either be addressed before the 2027 season or left unresolved in some version of the status quo for the future.
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rdehring, on Baseball Trade Values I was just scrolling through a number of proposed trades and stumbled across a 3-team trade that involved the Twins, Padres and and one other team I cannot remember, but the Twins were trading Ryan (52.7) and receiving Mason Miller (44.6) the young flamethrowing Closer who was traded by the Athletics to the Padres as San Diego was trying to catch the Dodgers last year. There was one other player that the Twins got but I can't remember who and from what team. Miller would be a big time Closer that would anchor a re-made Twins BP.
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All of this uncertainty lies at the feet of a hated ownership family that consistently fumbles public relations with their fanbase like Brent McClanahan at the goal line in the Super Bowl vs the Raiders. And it's hard to take ANYTHING Falvey says seriously. He talks of "wanting to figure out ways of adding talent to the group" yet he also talks about Cody Clemens as the likely starting 1B and a key role for Eddie Julien in the coming season. Clemens is a 29 year old journeyman who had a career year with HR's last year that in all likelihood will not repeat in 2026 of ever again. Julien has been a horrible hitter for 2 consecutive years and is a major defensive liability wherever he plays. These guys are NOT realistic building blocks. With all the young SP talent the Twins have promoted from their system (Matthews, SWR, Festa, Ober) and recently acquired (Bradley, Abel, Rojas) It seems to me very likely that at least ONE of Ryan, Lopez or Ober gets traded. Especially with Connor Prielipp probably coming in 2026 and Dasan Hill looking like a future big leaguer. Ober still has some reasonably decent value. If I could trade him for a young hitter that would help the lineup, I'd prefer to do that and keep Ryan and Lopez in the rotation. I think guys like SWR, Matthews, Bradley and Abel could certainly replace Ober going forward. Ober's BBTV is 20.4. That could presumably get the Twins White Sox Catcher Edgar Quero (17.8) or the Mets 3B/1B/DH Mark Vientos (19.8) or the Red Sox 1B/DH Tristan Casas (13.5) plus another prospect). Each of those hitters would fill a hole in the Twins 2026 lineup, so it's clear Ober could bring something of value back. I've stated numerous times that if I had to trade either Ryan or Lopez, my choice would be Ryan. His current BBTV is 52.7. Lopez is at 16.5. Ryan and Lopez are very close in age. Their pitching stats and metrics are very similar as well. The thing that separates them so greatly isn't talent, it's COST. With a 2026 roster that looks to have around half the players earning $1 million or less, the Twins don't need to trim the $21.7 million they are paying Pablo. Ryan offers the much greater return for either a good major league bat, solid prospects, or some kind of combination of both depending on if the deal is bigger than just a Ryan for Jarren Duran swap. I read a story about how the Red Sox appear to be cooling on a Joe Ryan trade as the Twins are asking for just too much in return (according to "Baseball Insiders"). To me, that's an obvious "planted" rumor from the Red Sox front office trying to pressure Falvey to sell low on Ryan. Of course the Twins should be asking for a King's Ransom for a pitcher of Ryan's talent and affordable salary and future control. The Red Sox are desperate to compete next year but know they are at a clear disadvantage unless they add at least one and probably TWO excellent SP's to slot #2 & #3 behind Garrett Crochet. The Yankees and Blue Jays have better pitching than they do. They could just "buy" one of those pitchers on the FA market and trade to add the other. I'm not buying the idea that Boston is cooling on Joe Ryan at all.
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Cody Clemens had a nice year last season but he's really nothing more than a 29-year old journeyman who had a career year. He's at best, a Utility-Type player. For Falvey to say this is ridiculous, even if he has no intention of Clemens being the everyday 1B and has some other plan in mind. Actually, it shows that Falvey doesn't really have a SERIOUS plan. So I call him out as a fraud and I cast the same aspersions onto our least liked "family" in Minnesota for employing him and expecting even casual fans to accept the drivel that is shoveled to this fan base on a regular basis. This year, the Pohlad's and Falvey will be able to hear the wind blow at Target Field because nobody will be there.
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I would think exactly the opposite. Both pitchers are quite similar statistically. And they are both close in age. The huge difference is in what each is making for a salary and as a result, Joe Ryan would bring back a much better player package. The $21.7 million Lopez is making in 2026 is actually a tremendous bargain for a pitcher of his caliber. With so many minimum salaries scattered throughout the Twins roster, the highest salary doesn’t need to be moved. You go for the bigger return in talent Joe Ryan brings back.
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Twins and Orioles match up for trade????
TopGunn#22 replied to SteveLV's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It could. Ryan is valued at 47.0 while Basallo is valued at 58.4 so theoretically, the Twins would need to add Kendry Rojas (10.2) or some other similar value to make it work on the BBTV model. However, BBTV is not the be all-end all, just a guide of sorts. The Twins clearly won the Pablo Lopez-Luis Arraez trade purely based on "value." But Arraez went on to win a couple batting titles for Miami, so the Marlins didn't LOSE the trade, it worked out well for BOTH teams. Ryan is a more finished product. An All Star pitcher. Basallo didn't bomb in his MLB debut last year but he didn't exactly SHINE either. His power potential is tremendous and he plays 2 positions the Twins desperately need some young talent at...C & 1B. As desperate as the Orioles are for a solid SP, they may not want to give Basallo up for anything. Trading power potential like that in today's baseball where POWER can forgive a multitude of strikeouts is hard for teams to do. It's like the Twins considering trading Matt Wallner. There is risk involved. But when the NEED of the team is so acute, as in the Orioles need for an All Star SP, or as I have pointed out in other posts, with the Twins trading Wallner for a young, Major League catcher (Teel, Quero, Ford) giving up that prodigious power to be able to fill a gaping hole in the lineup or rotation may be too tempting to walk away from. -
If you use BBTV as the baseline for defining "value" (this takes production, skill, age and contract into consideration) Buxton is valued at 19.0. Wallner on the other hand is valued at 22.5. In comparison, Martin is a 2.0, Gabe Gonzalez is 8.2, Roden 10.6, Larnach 1.3, E-Rod 24.1 and Walker Jenkins 53.3. Larnach at 1.3 and someone like Pierson Ohl 2.2 would be worth a Camilo Doval 3.5 type of relief pitcher if the Yankees thought Larnach could MASH in Yankee stadium and the salary of Doval was in the ballpark of Larnach. But that's a lot of "if's." The OF with the highest trade value who probably SHOULD be traded is Wallner at 22.5. Wallner, straight up for young Catchers like Kyle Teel (21.4) Edgar Quero (14.6) or Harry Ford (12.5) would be an overpay on the Twins part, with Quero and Ford requiring additional compensation. Teel straight up works. Would I be willing to gamble trading Wallner's tremendous power for a young, everyday backstop? ABSOLUTELY. Would the White Sox or Mariners be interested in this kind of deal? But Falvey won't know unless he aggressively pursues it. The theme of this article isn't so much that the Twins are loaded with OF on the major league roster. It's that the guys on the roster have some kind of value that could be capitalized on because Jenkins, E-Rod, and Gabe Gonzalez are coming, sooner rather than later. And that Roden, Martin and Outman while not initially showing much on offense are each FAR superior defensively than Wallner & Larnach. The disquieting development in this conversation is that Byron Buxton's name has seeped into the discussion. At $15 million per year Buxton is the BEST bargain in all of baseball !! That his frustration with ownership and the FO has reached the point that he may request a trade is a crushing blow to the fan-base that has already taken enough body blows. Trading Buxton would be the knockout punch to Twins fans. Far more than trading Joe Ryan.
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- byron buxton
- matt wallner
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TopGunn#22’s 2026 Payroll Blueprint:
TopGunn#22 replied to TopGunn#22's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Nuts, none of my roster changes stuck despite "saving" it multiple times. Not sure why that happened when I tried to POST it. -
I really like the Ober for Lawler trade. The D-Backs absolutely need SP and Ober would be a bargain for them. The Twins could absolutely use an upgrade at SS over Lee. This would not necessarily be giving up on Lee. He could still play 2B and/or 3B or be a 5th IF who plays 2B/3B/SS somewhat regularly. I especially like the "upside" on Lawler. To me it's worth the gamble, even with Culpepper and Marek Houston in the system and the possibility of getting Roch Cholowsky with the #1 pick. My only suggestion: With the money you are under budget, upgrade one of those $3 million dollar RP's to Ryan Helsley for $12 million. This way, you have a true "Closer" to anchor your BP. When I posted my roster, none of my acquisitions that I typed in stuck, despite "saving" them every time I made a change. Not sure why that happened. I still have guys like Eddie Julien listed...AAAHHHRRGGGHHH !!
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I will make 4 trades this off season and one major and one minor FA signing. First FA: Sign Ryan Helsley to be the Closer to a $12 million dollar deal. I'd go 2-years $24 million for stability if I could. The other signing is also for the BP: Caleb Thielbar for $2.6 million. Trades: Joe Ryan to the Red Sox straight up for Jarren Duran. Ryan BBTV of 47.0 and Duran 49.5 is close enough to even. Red Sox have too many quality OF and need a #2 SP. Duran and Keaschall form a great top of the order as Buxton settles in at the #3 hole. Twins trade Matt Wallner 22.5 to the White Sox for Catcher Edgar Quero 14.6 and RP Jordan Leasure 7.8 (22.4 Total). Leasure Closed some games for the White Sox. Quero steps in as our #1 Catcher. Twins trade Ryan Jeffers 8.1 to the Rays for 1B/DH Yandy Diaz 7.2. Rays throw in a lottery pick Class A player. Twins trade Baily Ober 20.4 and Andrew Morris 4.2 to the Mets for 3B/1B/DH Mark Vientos 11.6 and young SP Jonah Tong 12.6. Twins send 24.6 in value to Mets and receive 24.2 in value back. The lineup and defense are much better, especially in the OF and behind the plate. The pitching staff retains Pablo because he's a bargain at $21.7 million and he's someone the young SP's can learn from. The big risk I'm taking is in such a young staff, but the young guns need innings. Guys like Prielipp and Abel don't really belong in the BP but I want them up with the big club, learning how to pitch in the majors. They are primarily long men who can step into the rotation if one of the other pitchers falter. The key to the BP is signing Ryan Helsley who gives the team a legit Closer. I think he'll return to form in a big way in 2026. Leasure provides closing experience and Thielbar (or Coulombe) provides a veteran Lefty with a proven track record. I believe with Quero handling the bulk of the catching Noah Cardenas is ready to take over as a twice a week backup. The defense is good. The bat...we'll see. Outman and Roden are getting the first opportunity but Walker Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez are breathing down their necks. Vientos provides 30-HR potential and the ability to play 3B/1B/DH. His power replaces whatever power Wallner may have supplied (and then some). I'm still $10 million under budget so I've got some leeway...OR, Carlos Correa eats that up. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: James Outman ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($4.70M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Edouard Julien ($0.80M) Backup C: Mickey Gasper ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.60M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) RP: Justin Topa ($2.00M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Pierson Ohl ($0.80M) RP: Travis Adams ($0.80M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Marco Raya ($0.80M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 28.50% under budget
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I will make 4 trades this off season and one major and one minor FA signing. First FA: Sign Ryan Helsley to be the Closer to a $12 million dollar deal. I'd go 2-years $24 million for stability if I could. The other signing is also for the BP: Caleb Thielbar for $2.6 million. Trades: Joe Ryan to the Red Sox straight up for Jarren Duran. Ryan BBTV of 47.0 and Duran 49.5 is close enough to even. Red Sox have too many quality OF and need a #2 SP. Duran and Keaschall form a great top of the order as Buxton settles in at the #3 hole. Twins trade Matt Wallner 22.5 to the White Sox for Catcher Edgar Quero 14.6 and RP Jordan Leasure 7.8 (22.4 Total). Leasure Closed some games for the White Sox. Quero steps in as our #1 Catcher. Twins trade Ryan Jeffers 8.1 to the Rays for 1B/DH Yandy Diaz 7.2. Rays throw in a lottery pick Class A player. Twins trade Baily Ober 20.4 and Andrew Morris 4.2 to the Mets for 3B/1B/DH Mark Vientos 11.6 and young SP Jonah Tong 12.6. Twins send 24.6 in value to Mets and receive 24.2 in value back. The lineup and defense are much better, especially in the OF and behind the plate. The pitching staff retains Pablo because he's a bargain at $21.7 million and he's someone the young SP's can learn from. The big risk I'm taking is in such a young staff, but the young guns need innings. Guys like Prielipp and Abel don't really belong in the BP but I want them up with the big club, learning how to pitch in the majors. They are primarily long men who can step into the rotation if one of the other pitchers falter. The key to the BP is signing Ryan Helsley who gives the team a legit Closer. I think he'll return to form in a big way in 2026. Leasure provides closing experience and Thielbar (or Coulombe) provides a veteran Lefty with a proven track record. I believe with Quero handling the bulk of the catching Noah Cardenas is ready to take over as a twice a week backup. The defense is good. The bat...we'll see. Outman and Roden are getting the first opportunity but Walker Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez are breathing down their necks. Vientos provides 30-HR potential and the ability to play 3B/1B/DH. His power replaces whatever power Wallner may have supplied (and then some). I'm still $10 million under budget so I've got some leeway...OR, Carlos Correa eats that up. C: Edgar Quero ($0.80M) 1B: Yandy Diaz ($12.00M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Jarren Duran ($7.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) DH: Mark Vientos ($0.80M) 4th OF: James Outman ($0.80M) Utility: Cody Clemens ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Backup C: Noah Cardenas ($0.80M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP3: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) SP4: Taj Bradley ($0.80M) SP5: Jonah Tong ($0.80M) RP: Ryan Helsley ($12.00M) RP: Mitch Abel ($0.80M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.60M) RP: David Festa ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Jordan Leasure ($0.80M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) Payroll is 18.64% under budget
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Despite sending what looks like a JV team in talent to the AFL, the 5 players mentioned are what constitutes the backbone of the Twins farm system. I agree with the assessment of Mick Abel. The kid has great stuff, but to take that next step he must consistently COMMAND that stuff. His final start of 2025 was VERY encouraging. Jenkins is the jewel of our system and he really looks the part. It will be interesting to see how the Twins handle him in 2026. Obviously if he struggles at all in spring training and at St. Paul they will show the utmost patience and he wouldn't debut until 2027. But if he impresses in spring training and carries that over into St. Paul into May, what would his timeline become? June 1st? July 1st? or immediately after the All Star Game? E-Rod is very possibly the "better version" of Matt Wallner. Better speed and better defense. As good, if not better plate discipline. While E-Rod will never hit for a high average, he may be able to hit for a better average while maintaining the ability to pile up walks. Maybe E-Rod won't be as pull happy as Wallner as well. They are certainly similar in their hitting profile (basically 3 outcomes guys). But it is speed and especially defense where E-Rod really separates himself from Wallner. Culpepper's defense this last season showed he's capable of playing a better SS than Brooks Lee. I don't think there is anybody in the Twins system that can play a better SS than Marek Houston. Houston needs to continue to show offensive growth. But his defense is legitimately ELITE. Culpepper's ability to stick at SS but still provide high level versatility at 3B & 2B could really speed his path to the Twins MLB roster. Tait is simply the "Catcher of the Future." No matter what is done with Jeffers and how well Jimenez develops on the same track as Tait or even if the Twins trade for a young, MLB Catcher like Edgar Quero of the White Sox, Tait will certainly be in the mix. It's interesting to note that out of all the trades the Twins made at last year's deadline, the Twins FO seems to have made a solid deal for Jhoan Duran. The potential is there for the Twins to at least break even with the Phillies or possibly even win the deal when it's all said and done.
- 31 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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And he would have been a LHH compliment to the RHH Jeffers. On top of that, he came out of OUR system. We should know him better than the Reds. It made sense the Twins should have had him on their radar, but this has always been what frustrates me about the Falvey regime/era...they are always "reactive." They never seem to be "proactive." To the typical or even die hard Twins fan they seem to be caught off guard at times "Hey, did you hear Rortvedt was released?" "No, why would the Dodgers do that? He played quite a bit for them when Will Smith battled some injuries, should we give him a call?" "No...looks like the Reds already snapped him up." Hey, let's check on our guys in the AFL...I guess Mendez is tearing it up!!!" "Yeah, that was week one. He left Arizona and is taking some personal time to deal with something." Wait...What !?!?!?" I'm with you Riverbrian, I'm going to assume they have a plan and we will just have to wait and see how it unfolds. But I'm not very confident.
- 27 replies
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- victor caratini
- christian vazquez
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For an organization that reportedly has one of the top farm systems in MLB, this looks like an absolutely underwhelming group. Mendez had that good initial week but I hope everything is O.K. for the young man and his personal situation can get sorted out. Winokur is an interesting prospect, but I'm surprised he's still playing SS. With Culpepper and Marek Houston in the system and DeBarge winning a minor league Gold Glove, it's probably time for Winokur to just concentrate on playing OF and to focus primarily on his hitting. He's got a nice power/speed combo, but hitting .191 with a .582 OPS is going to get him the wrong kind of attention. Billy Amick was a masher in college at Tennessee. It's just deflating to look at an .037 batting average in the AFL. None of the pitchers we sent can throw strikes consistently. Boadas has a good arm, with lively "stuff" so at least there's that.
- 9 replies
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- miguelangel boadas
- brandon winokur
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I was thinking Rortvedt was a distinct possibility. Looks like the Reds took care of that.
- 27 replies
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- victor caratini
- christian vazquez
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