TopGunn#22

I have no doubt the kid has some talent. But how "talented" he is has to be tempered with the fact he was dominating kids 2-3 years younger. I'm reminded of the kid named Danny Almonte, a LH pitcher in the Little League World Series years ago from (I think) the Bronx. He absolutely dominated 11 and 12 year olds and it looked like the Bronx was going to cruise to the Championship until it was discovered that he was 14 years old. I'm not aware of what happened to his baseball career after his fame in the Little League World Series. And I agree with Ace Wrigley, these kids have "handlers" from the moment they show any kind of talent. It's quite possible he was strong armed, heavily influenced, (whatever you want to call it) by the adults who "handled" him. But, in the end, "talent is talent." Maybe this will work out for the Twins and the kid as well.

Thumbs up for Doc Bauer on his reasoned rant on the 40-man roster. Great points. I want to return to the Wallner vs. Casas argument. They are very similar. Neither one is "clearly" better than the other at anything, with one HUGE difference...Casas, can at least play an acceptable 1B. Wallner will never be a 1B. Wallner has accumulated 826 MLB AB's. Casas 816. Wallner has struck out 314 times, Casas 253 (in 10 fewer AB's). Advantage: Casas. Wallner has 51 career HR's. Casas 46. Slight advantage: Wallner. Wallner will be 28 years old on December 12th. Casas will be 26 years old about a month later. Advantage: Casas. And Casas can actually play 1B. He's not a Gold Glove candidate and never will be. I'm predicting with confidence that Wallner never plays an inning at 1B. Do the Twins have a glaring need at 1B? YES. Do the Twins have an amazing glut of LH hitting OF? YES. With all due respect to those that think Wallner is the better hitter. No. Better player? No. Better fit on the current Twins MLB roster and 40-man? No. Casas has had a couple of freak injuries these last 2 years, but his 2023 season displayed his potential. He's also hit more HR's in a single season than Wallner has to date (23). Having BOTH on the team and in the same lineup would be a disaster. Having one, who is 2 years younger and can play 1B would be a desired outcome. The Twins are VERY weak at Catcher. Jeffers is a poor defensive catcher and an above average hitter. For the sake of pitching staffs worldwide, I say a better defensive catcher is better for the TEAM. With Jeffers being represented by Scott Boras he's never signing an extension with the Twins. The thought of an extension is DOA. Maybe the Twins trade Jeffers (12.7 BBTV) to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (13.5). Red Sox get a catcher to pair with Narvaez and the Twins get a 1B for the now and the future. It also opens up the possibility of trading Ryan (52.7) to the Red Sox for an All Star OF like Jarren Duran (49.5) or a promising SS (who could also play 3B) Marcello Meyer (51.2) in a one-for-one swap for Ryan. Or, if you want to go full rebuild, you could look at the Mets for a blockbuster trade of Ryan 52.7 and SWR 12.3 (65.0 Total Value) for Nolan McLean 39.2, Mark Vientos 19.8 and Lefty SP David Peterson 8.6 (Total Value of 67.2). I'd throw in Julien (2.6) as a deal clincher. The Twins add Mclean and Peterson (who is on a very favorable 2026 contract of $7.6 million before hitting FA for 2027). Rotation is Lopez, McLean, Peterson, Bradley, Matthews and Abel (listed 6 because you'll need at least that). They could still trade Wallner 22.5 (and should) for a Catcher (Edgar Quero 17.8, Harry Ford 21.0 or Jefferson Quero (20.8). If Wallner is as good as some here on TD think he is, the catching rich teams we would offer him to should jump at the chance to add a LH Power Bat. Let's just say we acquire Edgar Quero from the CWS for Wallner in a one-for-one trade for the sake of argument. You see what the rotation looks like. Here's the 2026 lineup. C Quero/Williams 1B Casas 2B Keaschall 3B Lewis SS Lee/Culpepper LF A. Martin/E-Rod CF Buxton RF Roden/Jenkins DH Vientos (who can also play 3B/1B). There are 3 guys with 25- 30 HR power and Royce Lewis makes a 4th. The OF defense is much better. The IF defense has the potential to be better, and the catching defense is MUCH better (Quero is an EXCELLENT catcher). At this point the BP is a HUGE question mark. I would go against current Twins FO attitude toward the BP and sign Ryan Helsley to a 2-year $32 million dollar contract ($16 per) to have an established Closer and add a LH like Coulombe or Thielbar at an affordable price and fill out the pen with Topa, Funderburk, Festa, Ohl, Klein, Raya and Prielipp. This doesn't make the Twins the favorite to win the division. Far from it. But it would re-order the talent on the team far better than currently aligned. It would give the Twins an excellent replacement for Ryan (Mclean) while still retaining Lopez to head the rotation. It adds 2 semi-young power bats (Vientos 27 and Casas 26) and it allows for Jenkins and Em-Rod to ascend to the major league roster. It established a "Catcher for the Now and Future" in Quero giving Tait and Jimenez ample time to develop. Are there flaws in my plan? Certainly. But these are moves that could take place without having to fret over what the budget would be. The biggest stretch being signing Helsley for 2 years at $16 million per year. But clearing Ryan and Jeffers allows for that. I know of one particular TD poster who will rebel at the idea the Mets would give up McLean in a deal to acquire Ryan. We differ on our opinion, but if the Twins don't ask, they will never "get." Some sort of deal could be worked to sub Tong 24.0 in place of Mclean 39.2 but that's 15.2 more points of value the Mets would have to make up. Would that mean Jett Williams or Brandon Sproat in place of David Peterson ?? Probably. I apologize for the long post and that it took me this long to comment on a very interesting topic. With all I've said above, I'll offer one more take on the 2026 rotation and lineup. Simplify everything by switching out the Mets Joe Ryan trade and make a Red Sox trade adding Jarren Duran to our OF/lineup or Marcello Meyer. I would go for Duran. That way, if Buxton demands a trade, I've got an All Star CF. I also don't block Culpepper, Marek Houston or hopefully Roch Cholowsky from SS and I give Brooks Lee at least until June 1st next year to prove he can be a MLB SS and hitter.

I agree that extending Jeffers makes a lot of sense, but I'm going to take an opposing view...because when was the last time Falvey has done something that made sense?? I could also argue that a viable plan would be to cut some of the dead weight from our current 40-man roster and select catcher Daniel Susac the Athletics #11 prospect in the Rule 5 Draft. He's just completed a season in AAA and hit .274/.349/.483. He did this in a hitters park, but still very respectable numbers. With Jeffers value at a solid 12.7 (BBTV) one could make an effective argument with only the 2026 season of control remaining and a Lockout/Strike looming for 2027, the time to trade him is NOW, and go with a Susac/Jackson tandem with Noah Cardenas at AAA for depth. What would Falvey add in a trade involving Jeffers? Possibly someone like Tristan Casas to dig us out of the Black Hole of a possible Clemens/Julien 1B in 2026? Possibly packaged with Joe Ryan to ensure a bigger haul from the Mets? Or with Bailey Ober (20.4) in a package? With Falvey, we have little confidence but the chance is there for a deal that HELPS the Twins. A lot is made about Jeffers offensive ability as a catcher. But he ranks 18th in MLB for catchers. That's middle of the pack to me. Defense is his biggest shortcoming and both Susac and Jackson appear to be much better "catchers." So while an extension "seems" like a good idea, I'm leaning toward a smart Rule 5 selection like Susac and going with Susac/Jackson for 2026 and monitoring the development of Cardenas, Tait and Jimenez (and even Olivar).

A sobering but very astute article Cody. We all would love to see the Twins have a competitive season in a division that year after year is win-able. Unfortunately, we are all stuck in purgatory with the same ownership and same FO. They fired the manager and most of his coaching staff is gone, which was a move that needed to happen. But their actions will speak louder than any words and I have very little confidence for 2026. I will take solace in the hope that Buxton is not traded and stays healthy. If he's healthy, he will produce and be entertaining. That Keaschall will continue to progress and have a healthy season. This Lewis will be 2nd half of 2023 Lewis, and that some of our anxiously awaited prospects (Jenkins, E-Rod, Prielipp and Culpepper) eventually make it to the majors and give us hope for a future Twins team. Along with that, no matter who remains from the rotation, I will hope (all we really have is hope) that Matthews, Bradley, SWR and Abel take big enough steps forward that we can actually believe we could have a solid future rotation and that Festa has a smooth transition to the bullpen and eventually earns our Closer role (as there is currently NO ONE who possesses the talent to do so on the roster). Yup...I'm an addict. And I'm addicted to HOPIUM.

Culpepper is generating a lot of Buzz, and it is earned and understandable. He will almost certainly be a Minnesota Twin at some point next year. Amick came from a very high profile college program that got him a lot of exposure in the College World Series. I think his wrist injury hampered him terribly over the last half of the season and especially in the AFL. I would give him an INCOMPLETE. But he needs to really show something this season. I like that he's getting reps at 1B and that his defense at 3B is showing marked improvement. Dasan Hill is and always has been the guy that sticks out to me. I loved watching video of him when we first picked him. A lanky, 6:4 lefty SP with a smooth delivery. And now it appears his fastball is hitting 99 and his sweeper has shown tremendous improvement. As always, command and control are the keys, but he looks to me to be a guy that could jump a couple levels next year. A true "HIT" on a talented southpaw High School pitcher.

Cody has made a great point with SS being our biggest weakness. None of us expects Brooks Lee to ever be anything more than an average MLB SS. No organization should be willing to accept a situation like this. In fact, many people are already speculating that Lee will move off of SS in the very near future. True, we have young prospects like Culpepper and Houston and an excellent chance to end up with the prize of the amateur draft next year in Roch Cholowsky, the SS from UCLA. But the goal should be improving the position for the short term and let the long term solutions (Culpepper, Houston, maybe Cholowsky) sort themselves out in a year or two. My plan would be to offer the D-Backs Bailey Ober (20.4 value in BBTV) for Jordan Lawler (19.4 value). Lawler was once the top rated player in the D-Backs system. He's a SS who can also play 3B and 2B. He's hit extremely well in AAA but has not when given a chance at the major league level. But he has less than 100 AB's in the last 2 seasons. Quite simply, his star has fallen in Arizona and he's buried behind Geraldo Perdomo at SS. Perdomo is just 26 years old and last year posted an .851 OPS to go along with a stellar glove. Perdomo isn't moving aside for anyone. The other player blocking Lawler is All Star 2B Ketel Marte. The D-Backs need pitching, and now they will be losing Zac Gallen from their rotation on top of being deficient in SP in 2025. They may be open to an Ober for Lawler trade. Lawler is 23 years old (Lee is 24). Their fielding percentages at SS are very close (Lawler .977 Lee .974) but Lawler has much greater range. In my opinion, Lawler would be an excellent gamble to take. He's shown all he can at AAA and hit the heck out of the ball. He's more athletic than Lee but has positional flexibility at 2B & 3B for when Culpepper, Houston and hopefully Roch Cholowsky would play their way into the mix.

I think the Twins should be trading for a younger 1B with the strategy of solving the Black Hole we've had there for years. My target would be Tristan Casas of the Red Sox. That said, if Nate Lowe could be signed for 2 years at $6-$7 million per year that would at least stabilize the position and allow for others to either emerge from our minor league system or someone like Lewis "grow" into the position. Lowe has also won a Gold Glove at 1B. He's an actual living, breathing 1B. Guys like Wallner or Larnach will never really be a 1B. And imagine how many runs they would allow to score because they couldn't come up with a throw in the dirt. 1B isn't just for guys that can't run anymore. Rod Carew could still run, and he became a pretty good 1B. Multiple time Gold Glove 1B with the Dodgers-Wes Parker had excellent speed and on-base ability, but no power. And the current example of an excellent 1B who can still run and who saves his team multiple runs by coming up with bad throws is Freddy Freeman. I think there are a sizable number of guys who post on TD that have no idea how BAD an experiment at 1B would go with Wallner and Lanach, each of which have NO IDEA how to play 1B.

Well, this is certainly a nice development for a Saturday morning !!! I'm always surprised when players suffer injuries and miss games during the season (not just 10-20 games, but a number more significant) that they don't latch onto a Caribbean Winter League team and just get some AB's or innings pitched. After seeing the contingent the Twins sent to the AFL, I've got to believe the competition and atmosphere of the Dominican Winter League is far superior. Not only did E-Rod stay healthy, but the sentence that caught my eye was how he was hitting the ball hard to ALL fields. I think it's why he posted a .292 average. Pull-side power is great, but being able to hit the ball where it's pitched, use the entire field and not fall into the "pull everything for power" hole is a key development for any hitter. Especially a young one. E-Rod is 22 years old. If he plays well in spring training and if Larnach is indeed traded (which I fervently hope he is) it opens an opportunity for E-Rod to play in the majors sooner, rather than later. The other aspect of his game that encourages me is that he's always been a good defender. The sooner the Twins get Larnach and Wallner out of the corner OF spots and players like E-Rod and Jenkins out there, the Twins will take a big step forward defensively, and if there is a Ryan or Ober trade, that should bring back players that are also good defensive players, whether that's in the IF, OF or behind the plate. There are many things that have made the Cleveland Guardian Indians the most consistently good team in the A.L. Central. Good SP and a lights out BP for sure, but they are not just the best defensive team in the A.L. Central, but consistently one of the best in all of baseball. Kwan, Ramirez, Gimenez when he was on the team were all Gold Glove winners. The Twins need to get back to being a GOOD defensive team. And better corner OF play would help a LOT.

The only reason I can see for tendering Larnach is that they have a trade in place with someone. DJL44 mentioned at the top of the comments that Spencer Steer is a possible trade candidate with the Reds. Larnach could see quite a nice bump in his hitting and power production hitting in Cincinnati. The Reds could use some LH hitting. Steer would be a great one-for-one trade if that's the case. He would step right in at 1B and allow the Twins to say "farewell" to Eddie Julien. He would also give the Twins a decent RH hitter in their lineup. Steer fits the idea of good defense, speed and athleticism and positional versatility the Twins are supposedly embracing now. Clemens makes sense as a LH hitting platoon/utility player but Julien has no future with the Twins. But maybe I'm giving this FO waaay too much credit if they've already got a Larnach for Steer deal agreed to in principle. There were plenty of guys that could have been removed from the 40-man roster. It's a shame the Twins won't at least have the option to consider someone for the Rule 5 draft.

So is he being tendered a contract with the idea that the team he's being traded to has approved this?

We will have plenty of time to nitpick possible trades involving Ryan, Lopez, Wallner, Ober, (maybe Larnach) and yes, even Ryan Jeffers. We gave up on a pint-sized middle IF who the Twins have a myriad of guys in their system they like better. We added a potential backup catcher that has flashed some power in the minor leagues who by all accounts is a capable defensive catcher. At $1.8 million, some are thinking he's an extravagance for a backup catcher. Not compared to $10 million per season for the last 3 years !!! (Vasquez). I am not expecting this guy to be the 2nd coming of Earl Battey. But Tim Laudner ? Possibly. We added depth to a position where the system's best prospects are 2-3 years away. That's a WIN as far as I'm concerned. Olivar hasn't even made it to AAA yet. Cardenas is the better prospect and at least he's in AAA but with Tait and Jimenez at least a ways away, I'm OK with this move. And I'd also suggest that this move in no way lessens the possibility that Jeffers could still be moved in a trade. Especially if the Twins have a young, current or soon to be major league catcher on their trade wish-list this winter.

I would have swapped Keaschall out for Wallner. I know the sample size is small, but Keaschall certainly looks like a foundational piece going forward. Buxton is the Wild Card in this list. If he wants out, it will be hard to mollify him and keep him in the fold. They will never get anything close to value for a Superstar caliber player at $15 million per year. Teams like Atlanta, Philly or the Dodgers would look at that as a drop in the bucket. However, I agree with the idea that WHAT we get back in a trade involving Ryan or Lopez could meet with Buxton's approval. Ryan and Lopez are certainly both high possibility trade candidates. I trade Ryan NOW with his value at a high level and try to bring a solid major leaguer back. Jarren Duran even up? Duran would be a top of the order hitter providing excellent defense and baserunning (and Buxton Insurance). So how about a trade of Ryan 52.7 and Jeffers 12.7 (65.4 Total) to the Red Sox for Duran 49.5, Tristan Casas 13.5 and Connor Wong 2.4 (65.4 Total). Wong takes over as the primary backstop (he hit .280 with an OPS of .758 while catching 106 games in 2024). Noah Cardenas can back him up. Duran upgrades the OF defense tremendously and Casas moves in as the 1B with 30-HR potential. Or how about: Ryan and Jeffers (65.4 Total) for Wilyer Abreu 26.2, Tristan Casas 13.5 Wong, 2.4 and one of either Payton Tolle LH SP 22.7, Kristian Campbell 24.2 (2B/CF) or Franklin Arias 22.1 (SS). Accepting Abreu instead of Duran allows for the addition of either Tolle, Campbell or Arias. The Red Sox do this because it gives them an All Star #2 SP behind Crochet and a catching tandem if Jeffers/Narvaez. The Twins do it because Jeffers would be gone after this season and Ryan no longer fits their window with young SP's knocking on the door for opportunities. Abreu is a Gold Glove OF who alongside Buxton improves the OF defense immensely and who has 30-HR potential. Casas is your 1B and Wong your primary Catcher. The extra player the Twins get comes down to a young, promising LH SP in Tolle who could also allow the Twins the opportunity to trade another SP (possibly Ober). Campbell gives the Twins a 2B/CF candidate if they want Keaschall to play some 1B and/or LF. Arias is a talented 21 year old SS who is blocked by Trevor Story and Marcello Meyer. I'm trading Matt Wallner this off season. Getting Duran or Abreu with Jenkins, Em-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez on the way makes trading Wallner a lock. I'd look at Seattle for Harry Ford (#2 catcher candidate in 0226, future #1 Catcher) or use Wallner for either one of the White Sox young Catchers, OR, Jefferson Quero of the Brewers (stuck behind William Contreras). So let's imagine the Twins trade Ryan and Jeffers to the Red Sox for Abreu. Casas, Wong and Payton Tolle and they trade Wallner to the White Sox for Edgar Quero. The Twins lineup could look like this: C E. Quero/Wong 1B Casas 2B Keaschall SS Brooks Lee (Culpepper) 3B Lewis RF Abreu CF Buxton LF Roden (Em-Rod/Walker Jenkins) DH Rotating Players. Admittedly, LF is not ideal but Roden could surprise. There is also the possibility of an Ober treade either this winter or at the deadline adding talent. Rotation: Lopez, Bradley, (Ober)? Tolle, SWR, Matthews, Abel, possibly Prielipp. This lineup is younger, more athletic and much better defensively, especially if Culpepper progresses and takes the job from Lee. The payroll also falls giving the Twins the space to add a proven closer like Ryan Helsley to anchor the BP at $10 million. This type of off season plan would allow the team a chance, however slim, to compete in the A.L. Central while building a promising future with a future lineup with Abreu, Casas, Edgar Quero, Keaschall, Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Em-Rod and MAYBE Roch Cholowsy!! With a young rotation full of potential led by a sage veteran.

I would have swapped Keaschall out for Wallner. I know the sample size is small, but Keaschall certainly looks like a foundational piece going forward. Buxton is the Wild Card in this list. If he wants out, it will be hard to mollify him and keep him in the fold. They will never get anything close to value for a Superstar caliber player at $15 million per year. Teams like Atlanta, Philly or the Dodgers would look at that as a drop in the bucket. However, I agree with the idea that WHAT we get back in a trade involving Ryan or Lopez could meet with Buxton's approval. Ryan and Lopez are certainly both high possibility trade candidates. I trade Ryan NOW with his value at a high level and try to bring a solid major leaguer back. Jarren Duran even up? Duran would be a top of the order hitter providing excellent defense and baserunning (and Buxton Insurance). So how about a trade of Ryan 52.7 and Jeffers 12.7 (65.4 Total) to the Red Sox for Duran 49.5, Tristan Casas 13.5 and Connor Wong 2.4 (65.4 Total). Wong takes over as the primary backstop (he hit .280 with an OPS of .758 while catching 106 games in 2024). Noah Cardenas can back him up. Duran upgrades the OF defense tremendously and Casas moves in as the 1B with 30-HR potential. Or how about: Ryan and Jeffers (65.4 Total) for Wilyer Abreu 26.2, Tristan Casas 13.5 Wong, 2.4 and one of either Payton Tolle LH SP 22.7, Kristian Campbell 24.2 (2B/CF) or Franklin Arias 22.1 (SS). Accepting Abreu instead of Duran allows for the addition of either Tolle, Campbell or Arias. The Red Sox do this because it gives them an All Star #2 SP behind Crochet and a catching tandem if Jeffers/Narvaez. The Twins do it because Jeffers would be gone after this season and Ryan no longer fits their window with young SP's knocking on the door for opportunities. Abreu is a Gold Glove OF who alongside Buxton improves the OF defense immensely and who has 30-HR potential. Casas is your 1B and Wong your primary Catcher. The extra player the Twins get comes down to a young, promising LH SP in Tolle who could also allow the Twins the opportunity to trade another SP (possibly Ober). Campbell gives the Twins a 2B/CF candidate if they want Keaschall to play some 1B and/or LF. Arias is a talented 21 year old SS who is blocked by Trevor Story and Marcello Meyer. I'm trading Matt Wallner this off season. Getting Duran or Abreu with Jenkins, Em-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez on the way makes trading Wallner a lock. I'd look at Seattle for Harry Ford (#2 catcher candidate in 0226, future #1 Catcher) or use Wallner for either one of the White Sox young Catchers, OR, Jefferson Quero of the Brewers (stuck behind William Contreras). So let's imagine the Twins trade Ryan and Jeffers to the Red Sox for Abreu. Casas, Wong and Payton Tolle and they trade Wallner to the White Sox for Edgar Quero. The Twins lineup could look like this: C E. Quero/Wong 1B Casas 2B Keaschall SS Brooks Lee (Culpepper) 3B Lewis RF Abreu CF Buxton LF Em-Rod/Walker Jenkins DH Rotating Players. Admittedly, LF is not ideal as I see Em-Rod and Jenkins as Mid-May additions. I could see a trade of Ober filling LF. Rotation: Lopez, Bradley, (Ober)? Tolle, SWR, Matthews, Abel, possibly Prielipp. This lineup is younger, more athletic and much better defensively, especially if Culpepper progresses and takes the job from Lee. The payroll also falls giving the Twins the space to add a proven closer like Ryan Helsley to anchor the BP at $10 million. This type of off season plan would allow the team a chance, however slim, to compete in the A.L. Central while building a promising future with a future lineup with Abreu, Casas, Edgar Quero, Keaschall, Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Em-Rod and MAYBE Roch Cholowsy!! With a young rotation full of potential led by a sage veteran.

Larnach doesn't really have a future with the Twins. Not with the young guns coming up and the acquisitions of Roden and Outman last deadline. Both Roden and Outman are much better defensive OF than Larnach. Roden has the potential to be a solid hitter as well. Outman at least hit 23 HR's one year for Dodgers. There WOULD be value in letting Larnach go for nothing IF...IF...the Pohlad family and Falvey decided to reinvest the $5 million saved on an area of need for the team. The Twins have no Closer on the roster at this point. Nobody who even comes close. Camilo Doval has closing experience. The Yankees may not bring him back, His price tag seems to be in the $6 million dollar range. Would the Yankees be interested in a dead pull, LH hitter in their stadium? They have in the past. Maybe Larnach just isn't what they're looking for. But if I was the Twins GM I'd have already spoken to the Yankees about a possible trade of Larnach for Doval. If there's interest, GREAT ! If not, I search elsewhere. It's hard to be a Twins fan because there are zero indications there will be anything done to improve the team this off season. Especially with stories coming out how Clemens and Julien are being counted on for major contributions in 2026. We're all in the dark when it comes to the Twins. But most of us know losing Larnach won't really hurt too bad.

From the list, I think I like the potential of Beck the most. I like that his command is near elite and the plus fastball/plus slider combo is the stuff of bullpen stalwarts. I also agree that we have at least FIVE spots on our current 40-man roster that could easily be upgraded. There is a lot of talent in minor league baseball that gets overlooked or wasted. I'm anxious to see the "position player" Rule 5 candidates, because if there is a talented Catcher or 1B, (maybe even a SS even though Culpepper is close) I'd be open to selecting TWO Rule 5 players...Beck and a hitter. We are clearly deficient in 1B talent at the major league level and minor leagues as well. We have a potentially decent Catcher in Noah Cardenas but I'd like to learn more about Creed Willems as well.

I think Detroit will do everything they CAN to extend Skubal. But sometimes it's just not meant to be. As a comparison, consider Johan Santana. I think the Twins desperately wanted to keep Santana, but the reality was that there was such a bigger salary waiting in free agency that it just wasn't realistic for the Twins to keep him at that price point. On top of that, pitchers are notoriously "breakable." The Twins were forced to trade Santana to the Mets for a package of prospects. None of them really worked out. But it was either trade Santana and have something to show for it, or let him walk and get nothing. Santana only lasted 3 seasons for the Mets, who weathered that storm the best they could, but could you imagine the Twins trying to do that in 2008? With Joe Mauer's big payday around the corner? Both Detroit and Pittsburg are in the same boat. They each have the BEST pitcher in their league and it's almost impossible to determine which one is better. But in the economic landscape MLB is in right now, there are definite "Haves" and "Have Nots." I see the Pirates backed up against the same wall as the Tigers. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Giants or Mets would appear to be where both Skubal and Skenes will someday end up. The difference between Pittsburg, Detroit and Minnesota is that the Pirates and Tigers MUST come up with better trades than the Twins did for Santana. And the risk to the Tigers or Pirates if they agree to a $500 million dollar contract with either of their star pitchers and they suffer an injury that causes their Ace to miss a season or worse, end a career is a financial hole that a Pittsburg or Detroit can't dig out of. To a Dodgers or Yankees, with the resources they have, they could find a way to mitigate the damage. Not so for Pittsburg and Detroit. It's an unpleasant reality to the economic landscape in MLB that will either be addressed before the 2027 season or left unresolved in some version of the status quo for the future.

rdehring, on Baseball Trade Values I was just scrolling through a number of proposed trades and stumbled across a 3-team trade that involved the Twins, Padres and and one other team I cannot remember, but the Twins were trading Ryan (52.7) and receiving Mason Miller (44.6) the young flamethrowing Closer who was traded by the Athletics to the Padres as San Diego was trying to catch the Dodgers last year. There was one other player that the Twins got but I can't remember who and from what team. Miller would be a big time Closer that would anchor a re-made Twins BP.

All of this uncertainty lies at the feet of a hated ownership family that consistently fumbles public relations with their fanbase like Brent McClanahan at the goal line in the Super Bowl vs the Raiders. And it's hard to take ANYTHING Falvey says seriously. He talks of "wanting to figure out ways of adding talent to the group" yet he also talks about Cody Clemens as the likely starting 1B and a key role for Eddie Julien in the coming season. Clemens is a 29 year old journeyman who had a career year with HR's last year that in all likelihood will not repeat in 2026 of ever again. Julien has been a horrible hitter for 2 consecutive years and is a major defensive liability wherever he plays. These guys are NOT realistic building blocks. With all the young SP talent the Twins have promoted from their system (Matthews, SWR, Festa, Ober) and recently acquired (Bradley, Abel, Rojas) It seems to me very likely that at least ONE of Ryan, Lopez or Ober gets traded. Especially with Connor Prielipp probably coming in 2026 and Dasan Hill looking like a future big leaguer. Ober still has some reasonably decent value. If I could trade him for a young hitter that would help the lineup, I'd prefer to do that and keep Ryan and Lopez in the rotation. I think guys like SWR, Matthews, Bradley and Abel could certainly replace Ober going forward. Ober's BBTV is 20.4. That could presumably get the Twins White Sox Catcher Edgar Quero (17.8) or the Mets 3B/1B/DH Mark Vientos (19.8) or the Red Sox 1B/DH Tristan Casas (13.5) plus another prospect). Each of those hitters would fill a hole in the Twins 2026 lineup, so it's clear Ober could bring something of value back. I've stated numerous times that if I had to trade either Ryan or Lopez, my choice would be Ryan. His current BBTV is 52.7. Lopez is at 16.5. Ryan and Lopez are very close in age. Their pitching stats and metrics are very similar as well. The thing that separates them so greatly isn't talent, it's COST. With a 2026 roster that looks to have around half the players earning $1 million or less, the Twins don't need to trim the $21.7 million they are paying Pablo. Ryan offers the much greater return for either a good major league bat, solid prospects, or some kind of combination of both depending on if the deal is bigger than just a Ryan for Jarren Duran swap. I read a story about how the Red Sox appear to be cooling on a Joe Ryan trade as the Twins are asking for just too much in return (according to "Baseball Insiders"). To me, that's an obvious "planted" rumor from the Red Sox front office trying to pressure Falvey to sell low on Ryan. Of course the Twins should be asking for a King's Ransom for a pitcher of Ryan's talent and affordable salary and future control. The Red Sox are desperate to compete next year but know they are at a clear disadvantage unless they add at least one and probably TWO excellent SP's to slot #2 & #3 behind Garrett Crochet. The Yankees and Blue Jays have better pitching than they do. They could just "buy" one of those pitchers on the FA market and trade to add the other. I'm not buying the idea that Boston is cooling on Joe Ryan at all.

Cody Clemens had a nice year last season but he's really nothing more than a 29-year old journeyman who had a career year. He's at best, a Utility-Type player. For Falvey to say this is ridiculous, even if he has no intention of Clemens being the everyday 1B and has some other plan in mind. Actually, it shows that Falvey doesn't really have a SERIOUS plan. So I call him out as a fraud and I cast the same aspersions onto our least liked "family" in Minnesota for employing him and expecting even casual fans to accept the drivel that is shoveled to this fan base on a regular basis. This year, the Pohlad's and Falvey will be able to hear the wind blow at Target Field because nobody will be there.

I would think exactly the opposite. Both pitchers are quite similar statistically. And they are both close in age. The huge difference is in what each is making for a salary and as a result, Joe Ryan would bring back a much better player package. The $21.7 million Lopez is making in 2026 is actually a tremendous bargain for a pitcher of his caliber. With so many minimum salaries scattered throughout the Twins roster, the highest salary doesn’t need to be moved. You go for the bigger return in talent Joe Ryan brings back.

It could. Ryan is valued at 47.0 while Basallo is valued at 58.4 so theoretically, the Twins would need to add Kendry Rojas (10.2) or some other similar value to make it work on the BBTV model. However, BBTV is not the be all-end all, just a guide of sorts. The Twins clearly won the Pablo Lopez-Luis Arraez trade purely based on "value." But Arraez went on to win a couple batting titles for Miami, so the Marlins didn't LOSE the trade, it worked out well for BOTH teams. Ryan is a more finished product. An All Star pitcher. Basallo didn't bomb in his MLB debut last year but he didn't exactly SHINE either. His power potential is tremendous and he plays 2 positions the Twins desperately need some young talent at...C & 1B. As desperate as the Orioles are for a solid SP, they may not want to give Basallo up for anything. Trading power potential like that in today's baseball where POWER can forgive a multitude of strikeouts is hard for teams to do. It's like the Twins considering trading Matt Wallner. There is risk involved. But when the NEED of the team is so acute, as in the Orioles need for an All Star SP, or as I have pointed out in other posts, with the Twins trading Wallner for a young, Major League catcher (Teel, Quero, Ford) giving up that prodigious power to be able to fill a gaping hole in the lineup or rotation may be too tempting to walk away from.

If you use BBTV as the baseline for defining "value" (this takes production, skill, age and contract into consideration) Buxton is valued at 19.0. Wallner on the other hand is valued at 22.5. In comparison, Martin is a 2.0, Gabe Gonzalez is 8.2, Roden 10.6, Larnach 1.3, E-Rod 24.1 and Walker Jenkins 53.3. Larnach at 1.3 and someone like Pierson Ohl 2.2 would be worth a Camilo Doval 3.5 type of relief pitcher if the Yankees thought Larnach could MASH in Yankee stadium and the salary of Doval was in the ballpark of Larnach. But that's a lot of "if's." The OF with the highest trade value who probably SHOULD be traded is Wallner at 22.5. Wallner, straight up for young Catchers like Kyle Teel (21.4) Edgar Quero (14.6) or Harry Ford (12.5) would be an overpay on the Twins part, with Quero and Ford requiring additional compensation. Teel straight up works. Would I be willing to gamble trading Wallner's tremendous power for a young, everyday backstop? ABSOLUTELY. Would the White Sox or Mariners be interested in this kind of deal? But Falvey won't know unless he aggressively pursues it. The theme of this article isn't so much that the Twins are loaded with OF on the major league roster. It's that the guys on the roster have some kind of value that could be capitalized on because Jenkins, E-Rod, and Gabe Gonzalez are coming, sooner rather than later. And that Roden, Martin and Outman while not initially showing much on offense are each FAR superior defensively than Wallner & Larnach. The disquieting development in this conversation is that Byron Buxton's name has seeped into the discussion. At $15 million per year Buxton is the BEST bargain in all of baseball !! That his frustration with ownership and the FO has reached the point that he may request a trade is a crushing blow to the fan-base that has already taken enough body blows. Trading Buxton would be the knockout punch to Twins fans. Far more than trading Joe Ryan.

Nuts, none of my roster changes stuck despite "saving" it multiple times. Not sure why that happened when I tried to POST it.

I really like the Ober for Lawler trade. The D-Backs absolutely need SP and Ober would be a bargain for them. The Twins could absolutely use an upgrade at SS over Lee. This would not necessarily be giving up on Lee. He could still play 2B and/or 3B or be a 5th IF who plays 2B/3B/SS somewhat regularly. I especially like the "upside" on Lawler. To me it's worth the gamble, even with Culpepper and Marek Houston in the system and the possibility of getting Roch Cholowsky with the #1 pick. My only suggestion: With the money you are under budget, upgrade one of those $3 million dollar RP's to Ryan Helsley for $12 million. This way, you have a true "Closer" to anchor your BP. When I posted my roster, none of my acquisitions that I typed in stuck, despite "saving" them every time I made a change. Not sure why that happened. I still have guys like Eddie Julien listed...AAAHHHRRGGGHHH !!

I will make 4 trades this off season and one major and one minor FA signing. First FA: Sign Ryan Helsley to be the Closer to a $12 million dollar deal. I'd go 2-years $24 million for stability if I could. The other signing is also for the BP: Caleb Thielbar for $2.6 million. Trades: Joe Ryan to the Red Sox straight up for Jarren Duran. Ryan BBTV of 47.0 and Duran 49.5 is close enough to even. Red Sox have too many quality OF and need a #2 SP. Duran and Keaschall form a great top of the order as Buxton settles in at the #3 hole. Twins trade Matt Wallner 22.5 to the White Sox for Catcher Edgar Quero 14.6 and RP Jordan Leasure 7.8 (22.4 Total). Leasure Closed some games for the White Sox. Quero steps in as our #1 Catcher. Twins trade Ryan Jeffers 8.1 to the Rays for 1B/DH Yandy Diaz 7.2. Rays throw in a lottery pick Class A player. Twins trade Baily Ober 20.4 and Andrew Morris 4.2 to the Mets for 3B/1B/DH Mark Vientos 11.6 and young SP Jonah Tong 12.6. Twins send 24.6 in value to Mets and receive 24.2 in value back. The lineup and defense are much better, especially in the OF and behind the plate. The pitching staff retains Pablo because he's a bargain at $21.7 million and he's someone the young SP's can learn from. The big risk I'm taking is in such a young staff, but the young guns need innings. Guys like Prielipp and Abel don't really belong in the BP but I want them up with the big club, learning how to pitch in the majors. They are primarily long men who can step into the rotation if one of the other pitchers falter. The key to the BP is signing Ryan Helsley who gives the team a legit Closer. I think he'll return to form in a big way in 2026. Leasure provides closing experience and Thielbar (or Coulombe) provides a veteran Lefty with a proven track record. I believe with Quero handling the bulk of the catching Noah Cardenas is ready to take over as a twice a week backup. The defense is good. The bat...we'll see. Outman and Roden are getting the first opportunity but Walker Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe Gonzalez are breathing down their necks. Vientos provides 30-HR potential and the ability to play 3B/1B/DH. His power replaces whatever power Wallner may have supplied (and then some). I'm still $10 million under budget so I've got some leeway...OR, Carlos Correa eats that up. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: James Outman ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($4.70M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Edouard Julien ($0.80M) Backup C: Mickey Gasper ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.60M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) RP: Justin Topa ($2.00M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Pierson Ohl ($0.80M) RP: Travis Adams ($0.80M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Marco Raya ($0.80M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 28.50% under budget