old nurse
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Everything posted by old nurse
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Greinke said why he signed with the Dodger was they offered the most money. He never stated he would go to the team that offered the most money. There is a big difference. The offers were either Texas or the Dodgers. That is why he picked the Dodgers over Texas. Context is a little bit important here. Football players have a far shorter window to make money in with usually nothing guaranteed. That makes for a far different decision making process. Multiple basketball players take less money to be on winning teams. Their window to make money is similar to baseball. They talk of winning rings and championships, not the money.
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600 PA at the major league level. For that time he is league average iso and babip, way above league average in strikeouts. He would be an average hitter if he could only make contact with the ball when pitched. Why doesn't he make contact? Mechanical error? Not quite fast enough?
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The Twins don't use advanced metrics
old nurse replied to Monkeypaws's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Three of the Cardinals criteria for a player there really isn't a metric for. Work ethic, character and mechanics. from jay's article When you start thinking about things like the aging curve -- that is something I think 20, 30 years ago when players were signing contracts, they were signing contracts for what they accomplished -- now people are signing contracts for what you expect them to do. Do you think that would explain Ryan's distaste for long term free agent contracts? The GM has been in charge since 2007. The article touts his use of stats in assessing the draft candidates. They say they prefer college players. Since the new GM took over they have only had 2 impact players come through the draft, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller ( a HS prospect). Their best prospect is a player they signed when he was 16. Metrics are important, but they are not the answer. Even the GM will tell you that. They have their own statistics. They did not share what they do. No one can point to an article to what the Twins do or don't do statistics wise -
Again, better guess yes, any reliability, no.
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What is the point of arguing which method is accurate when none really are? My point all along.
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What was the correlation coefficient? It can still be more accurate but a coefficient that is still low.
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Are Pitching Projections Better Than ERA Estimators? | FanGraphs Baseball
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SIERRA had a .48 correlation, still closer to zero than 1
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The correlation of fip to the next year's ERA was .42 in comparing 2011 fip to 2012 pitching. If that is all the better correlation you need to say something is related, fine. .42 is closer to 0 than 1.
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What actions did he do last off season would indicate that he was not rebuilding. He traded for prospects. What talent he added was stopgap at best.
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So when 18 of the worst ERAs in MLB for qualified starting pitchers all have FIP lower than their ERAs they are just unfortunate pitchers? FIP may be predictive, but it took three years to come true in the case of Sanchez.
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If he wasn't going to be signed for next year maybe he wanted to rehab at home rathr than Fort Meyers. Other pitchers of note being released, is Volquez worth a look? never mind, the Dodgers signed him
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Pirates still interested in Justin Morneau
old nurse replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Backup catchers seem to be valuable, look at the trade for Buck. -
There is a gamble anytime you sigh a free agent. In the penny ante game, Ryan did ok. When he went to the big stakes table, we do not know what happened other than he didn't get to play. It is not giving him a pass, it is not criticizing when I have no information. To fault Ryan on the negotiation process with the cream of the crop free agents would mean I would have to see some indication they were interested in coming here.
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Pirates still interested in Justin Morneau
old nurse replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Byrd and Buck are having career years, playing well above league average. Morneau is not. Look towards the bottom of someone's prospect list for a ceiling of back of rotation starter and maybe the Twins could have him for Morneau. -
Sanchez is having the best year of his career by far. You can't predict that sort of thing. Your conviction that Sanchez would have signed here if only the Twins offered the most money is what it is. The claim was Coreia and Pelphrey were pitching better than most of the less than 50 million dollar pitchers signed the last two years, not better than average.Feldman, Kazmir, Hernandez, Guthrie, Iwakuma, and Liriano would be the better pitchers by ERA. Haren is getting there. So his claim is true. Doesn't make the pair average pitchers either. Ryan went into the dumpster and got the better trash. Nobody is calling him a genius for it. A little credit for picking the better of the worst, a demerit for picking the wrong former Skeeter.
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Article: Kernels Profile: Pitcher Hudson Boyd
old nurse replied to Steven Buhr's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
a couple of sites said 90-93 or low 90s -
Listen, Doumit is not the problem. He's a great guy to have at C and DH 3-4 times a week." It really shouldn't be a problem, that is pretty clear
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What it takes to get a number one type pitcher would be it's own thread.
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Thank you for your work. A while back I looked at pitchers who had an average WAR of 16 for 4 years. Over that last 25 years there was about 100 of them. With the exception of the injury for extended period of time pitchers, the age at when they fell below a 3 was generally about 34. Once they declined they didn't come back except the known PED users. The injured pitchers had a spotty record.
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There are other players shuttled back and forth to the minors that the only thing limiting their play at the major league level is themselves. If Collabello or Parmelee produced at a major league level, they could have paid Morneau to go away for a less than C level prospect that is better than their numbers?
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Some actual proof of your claim would be nice. What then does anybody on this board complain about the Twins not signing free agents. If it is as you say that players start declining at 31 why bother signing a declining player?
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There really won't be a rebuild until you can identify a number one starter for the team.
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Advocating Eduardo Escobar with a career OPS of .600? I wished I could belive you were joking.
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Say Guerrero was viewed as an average of 2 war per year player for the term of his contract. The 5 mil per WAR would make him a bargain at the 7/40 numbers posted various places that it is said that he is seeking. A 3 WAR would mean he would be in the top 10 of shortstops in baseball. To be a 3 WAR he would have to probably OPS over .800 if his fielding isn't great.