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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Perkins and Burton are very moveable parts. To an extent due to inexpensive contracts next year so are Doumit and Willingham. Mauer is immovable by contract. Even with that, only 2 players on a 40 man roster is not a hindrance to moving players. Every thing else on the roster is young and cheap. Might not be great player, but cheap in terms of contracts.
  2. old nurse
    The cheap guys are all moveable for the price paid for them. Not a block on mobility. They can sign/acquire whatever they want and just dfa what hey don't want without a loss.
  3. old nurse
    And if the Twins re-signed the players listed above, not have signed Willingham and Doumit they would have been better off? Carroll's and Mourneau's production with the other players would push the team to the promised land this last month? That is an interesting take on what is wrong.
  4. old nurse
    What the study could have proved is outside of being in the top 20 rankings are meaningless in terms of assessing talent. There are players like Nick Blackburn who have a good year in the high minors and make it in at the bottom of the list. Ranking are also based on perceived potential, not actual output. Toolsy outfielders can get ranked without ever being great at any level. Prospect ranking as a metric is sort of wins for a pitcher. It might mean something but not necessarily a good measure of talent
  5. old nurse
    Lohse signed initially with St Louis as a 1 year bargain basement free agent. In 2011 the Cards signed a scrappy utility player from the Twins for a minimal wage. St Louis can get a good player to sign a one year contract. The Twins can't do that. It is not the same situation
  6. old nurse
    In theory they want the Twins to sign free agents. By making it a theory it absolves them from the reality of the situation of external factors like free choice of the players and large market money.
  7. old nurse
    International free agents are free agents again once any contract they sigh is done. There are no arb years. They did their time.
  8. old nurse
    Bean counters know their beans. They see other teams that were losing eventually lost fans. When the teams got good, the fans still have not come back.
  9. old nurse
    If the team were to sign free agents this year, go after at least two with qualifing offers. They would only cost a 2 and 3 round pick. If they are switching leagues it gives them a little time to adjust.
  10. old nurse
    Did not say that the Twins should not sign quality free agents. Never have said that. My definition of quality is higher than some others around here. I recall someone pretty adamant about wanting to sign a CF. The claim was he would be an upgrade. He hit .200 for the team that claimed him. Much better than .192, but Hicks had a better OPS. I guess he was signed to be flipped. That player ended up DFA again. If they sign someone I would prefer that they not be mediocre or a smidge above average. The post I responded to you asked about the average age for a free agent. I gave you the average age from the position players that were not signed to minor league deals. That is well older than your posted age for prime players. The number of players under 30 is small. To get a quality player in their prime through free agency would be rare. The team, and fans, should anticipate decline. When it happens later, great. If the decline is sooner deal with it. Each individual player is going to be different and you won't know. Werth is having a career year at 34. A year younger, Pujols doesn't look so good. Another bad year and you can say he is in decline.
  11. old nurse
    You must have misread my post. I said you can think of the money they got from Carroll as the money they pay for minor league free agents. An example of a minor league free agent was Brandon Boggs. That is what you were told in the Carroll thread. I don't really remember anybody outright buying a significant minor league prospect. Well, way back when maybe the Yankees from the KC Athletics.
  12. old nurse
    For a position player last year, the average age was 33. According to the graphs cited by Thyrlos, that would be the age the decline is in full force. With exceptions like Torrii Hunter at the delayed significant decline, the data would look normalized. There were 8 free agents under 30, 3 of those being non tendered by their previous club.
  13. old nurse
    Or you are stuck with a bunch of mediocre players because you can't get rid of them.
  14. old nurse
    When they sign a couple of minor league free agents think of the cash they got from Carroll as paying for them. There that way they got 2 players for Carroll
  15. old nurse
    Please show me where you derived such an idea? I have no idea how other clubs operate. I have no idea where the clubs get their statistical information from. I would assume it comes from the mlb office for official stats and the clubs plug those spreadsheets into their computers to print the numbers they want to look at. I have never said clubs hire statisticians. You said that. Any article that has ever mentioned the player development people into statistics, there isn't a one of them with a statistics degree. I hope the entire Twins front office are avid golfers taking lessons from a professional instructor in hopes that one of them can see the benefits of some of the technology and has brought in on board.
  16. old nurse
    Don't think it is a joke. Ryan must not like what he was getting out of his 5th outfielder
  17. old nurse
    Trackman measures ball speed, location and spin http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/trackman/Rob%20Ristagno.pdf
  18. old nurse
    Essentially the guy failed his physical. The team and the agent reached an agreement on a different contract. Somehow the Twins were supposed to know that the guy failed his physical to offer a better contract??
  19. old nurse
    That would only be helpful if you could run prospects through some sort of combine to utilize the technology to identify players. To detect potential injuries you would have to run someone through an MRI that works with movement. That technology to my knowledge does not exist. The greatest potential for obtaining the best players is still through the draft and international signing. Nobody has shown a system of advanced metrics works in identifying those players. Trackmaster to me is best in developing your scouting book on what pitch players hit and where it goes. I think the information would be easily downloaded into your computer.
  20. old nurse
    Ghost of homerdome?
  21. old nurse
    Are there any statistics relevant to movement and outcome in terms of production on the playing field?
  22. old nurse
    Given the math, strikeouts are less likely to improve the ERA as limiting walks and strikeouts. Baseball prospectus on a 20 year study found the r2 value to be .25. Strikeouts important, yes. More definitive when you get above a K% of 20. Finding those pitchers is a little difficult.
  23. old nurse
    Goins doesn't really have to do much from a maintaining database standpoint as information from games would be fed into a computer through statistics from a variety of sources. Anything specialized from a scout would be fed in through a spreadsheet like Excell. IT to write the programs is the IT department.
  24. old nurse
    If every player on the Twins was having a good year would the Twins be contending? The veterans playing like it was the second best years of their careers. Hicks hitting like it was spring training, the second year players stepping up not backwards. Diamond and Worely not regressing but improving? Pelphrey pitching like 2010 in the last 2/3 of the season. Could you see the Twins being contenders? That would be everything going right. Not likely but if it did Ryan's statement is accurate.
  25. old nurse
    to quote you .do people expect paragrahps in every post? No one has ever written an article documenting the old school approach either. No one really knows what steps the Twins take in selecting and scouting players. The department of statistics collection could be in the hands of the scouting department. That would make some team's statistic departments smaller. If they are considered part of scouting, that would make the stats department smaller. The biggest friend is the computer. The pitch monitoring systems like pitch f/x are technology, not metrics. They give you the same data the scout would with a radar gun and eyes. The new technology is probably more accurate. It is not known how much the Twins use this data. I do not know but there had to be some reason for Ryan to come up with the comments he did. Specifically about Correia pitching better than his numbers and the saw something in Worhley they could improve to make his numbers better. I could only assume it meant they liked something in how the ball moves when they throw it that in their model could lead to better success for the pitchers. Any of the advanced metrics are all calculations off from the basics of the game. Don't you think a good GM would inherently know that a pitcher that walks few, strikes out many and doesn't give up home runs might be better than his ERA indicates?
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