old nurse
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Everything posted by old nurse
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About the best Cuban player comparison I could find was Ramirez with the White Sox. They are about the same age. Rameriz looks like he he did not spend time in the minors. Took a couple years to adjust, had two great years, and to better than average years. I don't think Ramirez spent time away from the game. There have other younger shortstops come over and had to spend some time in the minors. Ramirez for 2012 signed a 4/32 deal. So, if you think you have another Ramirez, you have a great deal. If Guerrero turns into Chip Hale, you went bust. The Twins could have given him a similar dollar contract with the money mostly bonus so it came off this year's budget. I don't think the Twins operate that way. For a 30 mil contract you get 2-3 years of the 7-10 best free agent. That would be a little safer method. They could have done both,(sign a Cuban and a free agent) they could do both twice. Have to wait and see what happens. People are upset because they hope that this guy could be a Puig/Cespedes kind of bat. They might not think it could turn into Urrutia's bat and position.
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The post that I responded to by Thyrlos referred to Arcia and Hicks in his post as a super 2 eligible players, which they are not this off season. He stated the rest were replacement level players. As such, my interpretation would be he does not think much of Pinto and Gibson and I would hope that he would expand on why he thought they were replacement level players.
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You hold out no hopes for Pinto and Gibson being good major league players?
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Why were you under the impression that the team could not sign international free agents because the team is bad. I recall no posts to that effect. If the conversation morphed then you cannot be complaining about statements made about elite players holding true to good players. How many good players, elite players and international free agents have been signed over the last 5 years? 100, 150? Depends on who is doing the ranking. Willingham was one of the players listed. Passan and ESPN had him ranked in the mid 20s when they ranked free agents. Passan had Guthrie 32, espn was higher. The 150 number when you include any international players might be low. The odds then are slim for a team with a long losing history to sign even good free agents. Your research proved it. Not saying not to try, just temper the expectations. 13 out of how many?
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sigh. Never said that they shouldn't or couldn't sign good players, just not the elite ones that will get you over the top when you stink. Still, to be competitive you need to have players capable of playing at an elite level. You need a pitcher who even though may be average can come up with the good game. The last few years the pitchers labeled not elite but good have not shown that.
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And having merely good pitchers does nothing for winning in the post season.
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It has been an ongoing discussion. It is part of the ongoing Grienke or Sanchez would have signed here if the Twins offered the most money.
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The actual comment made last winter was elite free agents don't go to teams with multiple 90 loss seasons. Elite, not good. Multiple 90 loss seasons not one. If you are going to use me as an example at least get my position correct. As for what you call a good major league player. Are you trying to say you would build a rotation with Guthrie as your ace? Guthrie has what recent numbers to even say number 3 starter on a good rotation? The half year he spent in KC? Soler has accomplished something as a major league player to even be called a good major league player? Heath Bell was coming off a down season in 2011. His 2012 season proved 2012 wasn't a fluke. His value was so great Miami received a low level prospect for him.
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Miami had 1 90 loss season before these guys signed, prior to that they had a string of mediocre seasons. They had a core of a strong pitching staff. Hardly the same situations as the Twins. Edwin Jackson, 2 years of free agency, was it only the Cubs offering him a long term contract? He had 2 different years to get a deal. If Jackson were the kind of player you would build around, why was he traded so frequently? Please find me the quote that Greinke said that he would sign with whoever pays him the most before he signed his contract. The statement was made after he signed . Considering his actions to get out of KC, I believe that statement about as much as a Ryan Braun statement. Actions speak louder than words. You need a core of something to attract a top flight player.
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It is how Eangraphs calculates it, it is what people quoted. Like any metric devised, it is not perfect. Having a bad year when they calculate WAR from what you are being paid raises the value per WAR. If you are paid like you were projected to be a 4 WAR player and put forth 1.2, the price per WAR goes up. If you have a 7 million dollar contract and have a negative WAR, the price per WAR goes up.
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The valuation of how much each WAR is is based on what a free agent gets in contract. Their belief is that only a free agent is true market price for talent. "In general, we can say that the market price of a win is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year." From the site. So, if many of the free agents are having bad first year with the tram, that would drive the $/WAR up. See Dempster,, Hamilton, BJ Upton among those driving up the cost per WAR.
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So then you don't believe that Fangraphs is not correct in that Correia and Pelfrey are pitching to better value than their contracts? I do not know what Ryan was thinking when he hired these players. I can guess, and it is only a meaningless guess, that coming off from a season where the entire pitching staff blew up he was hoping to find a starter that would last the season at a mostly quality start level. I said nothing about the two in response to your post. My bad also in that I should have said the Talent Acquisition Team, not scouts as I really have no idea in total who works for the front office.
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The Twins are supposed to have scouts smart enough to recommend to not sign "upside" players that fail. Gauging upside is what they are paid to do. You may see upside in a player based on what they did in years past. The scouts don't see the player making those pitches enough anymore. Why sign them?
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Fangraphs only uses the contracts of free agents signed this year to determine what is player value. Any players signed to an extension are not put into the value computations. Many large contracts are not performing well this year so your value goes up. Remember also I said the problem was he got a second year, not dollar per year.
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The middle of the pile sucked, too. If you think you can get a player in search of a championship to the Twins with no other additions, then it is pointless to discuss why they did not sign a top level pitcher.
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So far this season in both leagues there are 132 pitchers that have pitched at least 100 innings. Good is a relative term. If Pelfrey is bad, that leaves 65-70 pitchers for 30 teams to call good. It is all relative. Would you call Chris Tillman of the Orioles a good pitcher? Statistics alone doesn't make the pitcher good or bad. If Pelf is bad pitcher using WAR and FIP, then Tillman is one very lucky pitcher as he is currently with a worse WAR and FIP.
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Ryan gets no credit for knowing what he was doing in picking through the bottom half of the pile. He overpaid on Correia with a 2 year contract.
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Read Shane's post. Pelfrey is a middle of the pack pitcher this year even factoring in the poor start. So if he is a not good pitcher, how does he end up a middle of the pack pitcher statistic wise? I guess I should have phrased it that way so you would understand what i was asking, not how WAR is calculated. Until someone comes up with something better FIP and WAR is what you have to compare players, dislike or like, it is what is there. It is better than comparing win totals. It is also ironic that Fangraphs states that FIP is better a measuring future performance that measuring the current one yet uses it in their calculations to reflect what kind of season the player is having.
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With a very poor first half of the season, how does fangraphs have him currently at 1.6 wins above replacement?
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Last 10 games an ERA slightly under 4 with a FIP fairly close to that number. He has 4-5 more starts this year. If that performance level continues to the end of the year I could understand Ryan trying to re-sign him. Depends on a lot of different things. if Ryan wants him. He is not a fastball at the knees kind of pitcher. There are still 4 spots open after the pitcher that is signed. What does Ryan think of the in house options? What else can he sign? At the end of the season it should be a better picture.
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There are no players with contracts hindering them from adding an infielder, right fielder or pitcher. In that sense there are no old immovable players. On the axis of old immovaable players versus young cheap players that can get you players, the Twins are not even on it. You have Mauer that you can't move, Correia, Doumit and Willingham not likely moveable at this time, Burton, Perkins, Arcia, Pinto, Florimon, and Dozier that you would get a return for. Plouffe, and the rest of the relievers you could get a low level prospect for. The problem is they aren't considered young except for Arcia and Pinto.
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Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
old nurse replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In theory you would be correct. That would make an assumption that the players you could sign to a 1-2 year contract were better than the ones you played. You can't find that. -
Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates
old nurse replied to howeda7's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice duck of my question. No, saving money has not helped the Twins return to contention. Neither would have keeping the players let go. -
Isn't DFA moving them? There isn't a contract to pay. There isn't an obligation.
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Isn't expendable moveable? If you consider age of a rookie according to a Times article I read a while ago is 24. The Twins would have very few rookies at that age as they have had very few exception young players so their ages would be a little older.