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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Would not argue against that they have entertainment value and give people something to talk about. That pretty much sums up what projections do.
  2. old nurse
    If at the end of the year, as you say, you have to figure out why they were off they have no reliability. From a statistical projection they are useless.
  3. old nurse
    Curiosity here. I wonder why with no reliability and no validity do people with a purported understanding of statistics bother with these projections
  4. old nurse
    Randy Bass comes to mind when I see the A B Walker lovefest. I really can't think of any other near comparables to Walker.
  5. old nurse
    All jobs should be a living wage with a little less going to the top. Baseball mirrors life.
  6. old nurse
    To be in a phd program at Cornell is equivalent to being a first round draft pick in baseball, therefore the PHD student earns less as they did not get a million dollar signing bonus.
  7. old nurse
    Roenecke only pitched for the Twins in 2013, Deduno was done by the middle of 14. Swarzak was long relief, Duensing was lefty, a role Tonkin can't fill. None of Tonkin's win probability numbers look very good. On the other hand he was a late round draft pick. C+ and on the fringe of prospect ratings. Tonkin really has exceeded expectations. The problem is effectiveness. The Twins covet effective at what you do. Tonkin has not been that.
  8. old nurse
    A career era+ of 85 and a FIP over 4 will get other people chances. Also never mind that when some of your list were pitching, Tonkin had just progressed to AA
  9. old nurse
    The comment was a jab at Parker. The actual benefit of pitch framing is debatable as there was one study showing that it was not consistently called by inning nor pitch count and by score of the game. Somebody with too much time and no life could replicate that study again.
  10. old nurse
    I read once that BABIP normalizes out for a pitcher in about 1000 innings. Hopefully your bad pitcher never gets to that. On the other hand, a league average pitcher for BABIP can have terrible results, Kevin Correa. or be very good like Shields. Porcello got a 4/82 contract with a career BABIP of .317
  11. old nurse
    Vargas still has one option left as reported different places. Arcia has 853 PA at the MLB level. It should give the team a good idea where the problems lie for Arcia with a bat. There should be more than enough AB in the spring to get an idea where Arcia is at. Quentin probably will need all of ST and a little time in AAA to get back, if he does. The only report I have seen is that he says his knees feel better. That really is not terribly encouraging. On a team that had only 2 players OPS over .760, and one was a pitcher, there is a need for some power.
  12. old nurse
    Is it the catcher, Mauer or Suzuki, or the pitcher Gibson . Mike Fast already had no life. If there still is doubt that it is the catcher's action that gets the call then the pitch framer wonks did not do a very good job of convincing people.
  13. old nurse
    I would think teams would look at performance rather than actual numbers. If your pitcher is working on pitches early in spring training more than working at outs, so is the other team's pitcher
  14. old nurse
    Nice deflection from the point I made. About the only value for this year to trading Plouffe this off season would be playing time for developing players. Arcia has been in the outfield for 1700 innings, -19.5 UZR for the career. For a reference point, Hunter was 0.3 last year. Vargas has not played the outfield when there was such notable fielders such as Chris Hermann and Chris Collabello out there. Polanco to the OF or 3b where he has not played or are you adding trade Dozier for middling prospects, too? Kepler had a career year last year, so did Edwardo Nunez. Is Kepler ready for prime time? Maybe by mid season. People here do not come out to see prospects and on the job training team. Look no further than the 2000 Twins or the Timberwolves once the novelty wore off.
  15. old nurse
    The Twins got 5 lottery tickets for Santana and are panned for the trade. The Twins got two lottery tickets for JJ Hardy and are panned for it. If Todd Frazier nets only 3 lottery tickets, the tickets Plouffe would return would be for the daily 3, a minimal prize.
  16. old nurse
    Pressly 101 games, Roeneke 68 games, Tonkin 60 games, Aaaron Thompson, 48 games, Tyler Robertson 42 games, Graham 36 games, O'Rourke 28 games, Hoey 26 games, Waldrop 24 games. Nope, the Twins never give a chance to the young pitcher
  17. old nurse
    Young played mostly OF for a 5 year stretch when he was Sano's age. League average OF by metrics is relying on the unproven. In terms of offense, if his woba stays the same Sano would be a top bat for a RF or any other position they would put him at. His bat, if it remains at the level of his rookie year, should overcome any defensive woes at any position except catcher.
  18. old nurse
    Heyward is 6-5 and 245. Nobody would say he is too big to be in the outfield. Matt Holiday is huge and in the field. Carlos Lee and Dimitri Young played the field as big bruisers. It can be done
  19. old nurse
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/erickro01.shtml
  20. old nurse
    Hitable low 90 fastball, Probable arsonist rather than fireman. See another thread for who the Twins tried last year at a million something or less last years. I would rather see Lester Oliveros.
  21. old nurse
    The rare late round, speed through the minors player will get missed by the ranking people. Prospect rankings gives some people something to talk about. It is an opinion. For that reason it has meaning. Not being ranked does not mean you are not a good player just as being ranked does not mean you will be a good player. at the major league level. Are they accurate in which player will have the best career? No. But that is not the point of these things
  22. old nurse
    Plantar facitis is such a career altering disease
  23. old nurse
    Yup, Stauffer should have never come north. The Twins do a lousy job of recognizing when a pitcher is injured and the player does not say anything. Stauffer isn't the first one, neither was Nolasco. By his history of injuries the guy is a crapshoot. When healthy he is a spot starter/long relief/mop pitcher. What would you expect from a low budget signing? JR Graham and one other young pitcher were going to be the inexperienced ones. Thompson got the other spot. When other pitchers got hurt, Pressly and Tonkin would be getting their chance. Stauffer, ironically was the one. For a one year deal for a relief pitcher for the 2015 season, only Belisle, and Frasor had decent years. A couple were better than mediocre, but not by much.
  24. old nurse
    Correct, 1.7 million in baseball is a lot of money to throw away. Evidently the Twins did not think from the previous 2 years of pitching that Tonkin or Pressly could match the modest achievements of Stauffer
  25. old nurse
    What is the Twin equivalent of Dickerson? Kepler? 2 fer with Rosario and Vargas?
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