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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    Is Gibson an average player? If you are going to make the argument he will get the average raise then he would have to be near the average player. Shelby Miller's raise was 10% last year. Miller has above average potential. It was not evident in 2016. Il certainly look forward to see how you can justify calling Gibson an average pitcher. While you do that consider Michael Wacha got a 400% raise. Odorizzi an 800%. McHugh a 700% Stroman 600% How many players will it take getting less than 100% raise for the average to get to 100% Any explanation of the math on how Gibson will get an 100% raise would be appreciated. It would take a lot of players to bring the average down to 100 % There were 156 filed last year. Most settled before a hearing. It would take over 90 players averaging 25% to get to the 100% number you stated. The other 60 would then have to average 100%
  2. old nurse
    There is no reason to think Gibson can get that much in arbitration.
  3. old nurse
    Pat Mahomes, Vic Abury Pete Filson, Jim Deshailes, PJ Walters, and Ricky Nolasco are among the many that are thankful for short memories.
  4. old nurse
    Kyle Gibson benefits from the sad fact that there is a dearth of pitching. The just under 3m a year contract is not money sucking. What he would get in arbitration is the question. Salazar for the Indians did not get much of a raise with way better numbers last year. Of the top of my head I can't think of a comparable to Gibson, hence Salazar's arb negotiation would lead me to believe Gibson will not get much of a raise. Much to the chagrin of many here, Gibson will actually be cheap enough to keep. Cheap enough to get a prospect for if Mejia, Mays and a prospect emerge during the season next year. Colon could also be back if he does not get to 244 and retires. Of course if they think Slegers can fill the role that Gibson plays, Gibson is gone. That role would be sinkerball pitcher that keeps you in a game and eats innings. On too many nights, Gibson had not done that. In a universe where there are only 84 pitchers who have pitched 120 major league innings this year Gibson would fit the criteria for second best starter as only Santana has pitched that many innings. By bwar, not even in the rotation
  5. old nurse
    You stated that Santana could cost a third round draft pick. The only way that happens is if Santana gets a qualifying offer.That would be likely. How many players get qualifying offers? Last year thee were about a dozen. If the Twins are giving up only the third round pick for Santana they either tanked so bad the rest of this season that they dropped past 10 teams and signed to QO free agents, or signed 3. The AAV of the contracts handed out to QO players was 18 million. IIRC the average length of contact was for 4 years. What is so hard for you to understand about that? Adding 3 contracts that would likely be closer to a 60 million a year addition is not going to happen. Yjay would be getting the payroll to the 140 million range. If Santana, and Dozier are traded, Escobar and Gibson are non tendered and Phil Hughes decides it is not worth trying to earn 26.2 million then there would be a chance. Realistically, that is not going to happen.
  6. old nurse
    The Twins have 70.4 million committed to contracts next year before any options or arbitration. That is Mauer, Santana, Hughes, Dozier, Castro and Park. Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Mejia, Buxton, Berrios, Polanco, Rodgers, Duffy, Hildenberger, Busenitz, Orourke and Vargas are pre arb and get about 550,000. That is 19 players, a few not likely to be with the club, Grossman, May, Adrianza, Pressly, Gibson, Escobar, Tonkin and Gimmenz are the Arb eligible. Depending on the initial discussions, play of some in September half of those will be back. Unless they decide to keep both Escobar and Gibson that is a likely payroll around 80 million. The team is not going to go nuts with long term contracts. The non return on the Nolasco and Hughes contracts. The history of declining return on the Mauer and Morneau extensions as well as the Hughes, Suzuki, Pelfrey extensions should make the Pohlads fairly shy of long term deals for older players. The team will sign one. Signing 3 as the OP thinks is likely out of the question. Twins Revenue is not as Forbes says. From 2011 to last year the team lost a million paid attendance, They have decreased revenue per fan from $53 to 43. Despite this 70 million drop in revenue, the Twins gained in estimated revenue by 40 million. Something does not add up.
  7. old nurse
    Negativity sells. Look at any thread that starts with a rip on something versus a positive spin one. The negativity goes on and on, the positive threads draw few responses. Management and established players are the first target. Players that are fringe are the third target.
  8. old nurse
    Fantasy baseball. Only 9 position players have accumulated 25 war from 2012-2016 season. Hicks is not that good.
  9. old nurse
    You are assuming the local cities own the team. There may be a few, but the teams are generally owned by someone, not the community.
  10. old nurse
    I was not aware that there were nothing but sellouts at minor league parks to need better stadiums. The cost of a minor league player is directly proportional to the value they bring to the parent club. The minor league players that can make a lot of money are the AAAA player. There is a reason they bounce from organization to organization.
  11. old nurse
    PGE Park was renovated for soccer so there was no longer a baseball stadium.
  12. old nurse
    The thought that the Twins would sign 3 players who would cost a draft choice makes your article one of wishful thinking rather than one of analysis That would mean the Twins are signing 3 of the top dozen players. Last year they averaged 18 million a season. The Twins are not going to have a 130 million payroll. Mauer and Hughes contracts are not going anywhere. That leaves Santana's 13 million contract. For 5 million more you are not going to gain much.
  13. old nurse
    If you are going to probably give up a first round pick it should be for a four year player. A bat first player 20/m player is not the solution. The money would be better spent elsewhere. A closer and a set up pitcher. Starter and something else.
  14. old nurse
    Players having moments is about as weak of an argument as there can be. The Twins history is littered with players having moments. Pedro Munoz if you need at least one name. Buxton being rushed. His AAA stats say not. This well could be Hicks outlier season. Time will tell.
  15. old nurse
    The whole thread is based on a strawman argument. It makes the assumption that whatever Hicks learned in New York he would have learned here. Years of non production here is the basis for the idea he wasn't learning here.
  16. old nurse
    Pass on a 4 year contract for Santana.
  17. old nurse
    Baseball's merchandise revenues are pooled. Retail markups are not. The team store keeps the markup on what is sold. If the local fan wants to but a Yankee product they will go elsewhere and the team store makes little money on a product in the clearance bin.
  18. old nurse
    The retailer makes the money. They would sell Lynx jerseys if they thought the merchandise would sell.
  19. old nurse
    Cherrypick the year year out of the career
  20. old nurse
    Gonsalves has not had an easy time against AAA hitters. Blame it on small sample size
  21. old nurse
    Yeah, I knew that gut there was a different thought that could get people upset Pitchers with an ERA of 3 and under at AAA who have appeared in the majors this year Ryan Pressly Michael Tonkin Dilon Gee Kyle Gibson Alex Wimmers Tim Melville Nik Turley Drew Ruckinski Dietrich Enns as well as the good news of Busenitz, Hildenberger, and somebody named Berrios People can all ooh and aah over minor league stats, but it really does not project to major league stats. In developing Romero and Gonsalves does it really benefit them developmental wise to come up and throw in game batting practice? The ability to steal a game was there for Turley, Melville, Enns and Jorge. It worked once, but not twice for Jorge. Has Jorge come back and dominated at AA? Done worse? Continued to be both bad and awesome? Risk/reward for the development of a pitcher.
  22. old nurse
    Risk/reward for using up an option year on Gonsalves or Romero. There is no risk on using up the option years an the players they have used.
  23. old nurse
    They traded 2 impending free agents. Wilson is arb eligible. If he remained a closer and got closer money his trade could be about saving money. Had they traded Kinsler you could say they were dumping money. The issue would be definitive if there was a market for him. There have been quotes about not adding further payroll. I don't think Avila can withstand another bad contract is more the issue than anything with that type of statement. Sanchez has been a money drain. Victor Martinez is becoming one. Zimmerman has been one. and Cabrera will be paid for a lot of past deeds for a long time. There are expensive contracts any team would love to shed.
  24. old nurse
    The process of using one tiny bit of information to make a decision is a flawed one. You are correct on the leverage. I should have been using win expectancy numbers.
  25. old nurse
    Statistics from those who spent a lot of time working on them say it was a low leverage situation. You are free do to the work that shows them wrong. In the Tigers game the percentages paid off because of an inconsistent bullpen. Multi factor analysis. The Tigers might not do the same in another situation. You can point out a specific instance but not the general trends. As the next day pointed out, switching from Boshers did not provide a better result. Molitor did as you said. No change in the results.
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