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beckmt

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Everything posted by beckmt

  1. beckmt

    The Grand "Re-Tool" Experiment

    beckmt commented on Tim's blog entry in Tim

    Interesting, but not the way I would go. You have ignored a couple of items. Shortly the Twins should know if they can extend Buxton/Berrios (have more hope for Buxton), Berrios you will have to meet his price (all it will take is one crazy team to do that). If you can extend neither then you have to go into rebuild (painful as it might be). Farm system is decent, you have many more pitchers than listed as possible (Sands, Vallimont, etc). Plus any top line prospects berrios and buxton bring in (and they should bring at least 1 each). Then you have to unload Donaldson(and retain a fair amount of money). At that point I might also move Kepler for more pitching and just hope to fill with either prospects or FA. Not impossible, depending on pitching we might be able to contend in 2023 or 2024 at the latest. If that fails you fire everyone and start over.
  2. beckmt
    I feel most of the posters here would not expect Berrios to sign for 5/100, so you had better trade him, if that is your take. Hopefully the FO knows the answer and is not guessing. Berrios is better than you think, and Twins have a horrible record at developing top pitching. You would then need 3 - 4 out of the top end of pitching class to fill the spots. Nice hope, but to me that is dreaming.
  3. beckmt
    $20 to $25 million is doable though the upper end is a little dicer. If Berrios wants ace money, he will not get it here > $ 30 a year. Once this is determined or whether Berrios will even sign here, the path forward will be clear
  4. beckmt
    Try to extend first if they do not want a reasonable extension, you have to trade them now. We don't know what the offseason will bring or even if a new CBA will be signed before a work stoppage in 2022. If you can not get it done, max value is now, because even small market teams can afford the contract for this year and next.
  5. beckmt
    He doesn't yank players for boneheaded plays, some like Rosario could not be fixed, but others need to learn the right way. Also it is some of the veterans who trying to fire this club up. Someone has to lead, he does not seem to.
  6. beckmt
    He is too nice and needs to go. We need a manager who can kick some butt, and holds players accountable. He does neither.
  7. beckmt
    If you go for a rebuild, then you have to admit the current regime is a failure. Don't think we are there yet. We still have to listen on Buxton and Berrios and if not extended must sell by this winter. Problem is the new CBA is an unknown which is likely to make buying clubs reluctant to give major prospects for this year of contention, if there is possibly a short season or no season next year. To me it depends on buxton and Berrios. If the FO does not know the status, they should be fired. Pohlad will probably need to approve the money to resign them, but this should be known at this time.
  8. beckmt
    IT will be interesting to see the quotes of the departing players. Most will say nothing, but there might be an outer or two
  9. beckmt
    Try any of the rookies, Winder would be my choice as first option. We have lots more.
  10. beckmt
    Yes, time to DFA Happ. It is time for the prospects, nothing to lost now.
  11. beckmt
    Get Winder up here, he can't be any worse than our group of starters!!
  12. beckmt
    Outside of Rogers and Berrios, I do not believe there is a long term pitcher left from the Ryan era (I know about Jax, just do not think he is any more that a 5th starter, long man now). All the next wave has come in the last 5 years most of it drafted in 2017, 2018. With the current injuries we will see how it works out, but you can never have enough pitching. Next two years will tell, if the pitching is still bad we will be looking at starting over.
  13. beckmt
    I understand the problem. You don't want to hand out 2 - 3 year contracts if the kids are going to be here next year. So you tread water and hope it works (it did not). The cupboard was bare when they were hired (or almost so), so a 5 year window is about right. They lost last year, so next year is 5 and we should start seeing pitchers arrive and some will make it and some will not. After next year we will know. We don't know if either Buxton or Berrios will sign a long term deal. If neither will, we will have to trade them, as the return of 0 or little will really put this franchise back. Still need to get the hardest thing to get, which is more possible front line pitching . End of next year of 2023 we will know if this FO is a success or you next to find the next FO to fix the problem
  14. beckmt
    I also see 5 - 6 to be protected. Though 5 seems to me the number most of us can agree on. Nice list. As stated above Moran is an interesting case. Do not know where he ranks. A few other pitchers doing well like Vallimont, what is his position and does he need to be protected. One grip I have with the FO is that they gave up on some pitchers too soon, and some of them are doing well. (Wells for example).
  15. beckmt
    Umpire found stuff on his glove between innings. We will see where this will go. Breaking: We Have Our First MLB Pitcher Substance Ejection (msn.com)
  16. beckmt
    I see this as depending on the Twins direction. If you can't extend Berrios or Buxton then this is the correct way to go. If you can then Rogers maybe should be extended to keep the window open. Great article though. Padres and Dodgers should both also be in the mix and both have top level farm systems.
  17. beckmt
    I think some of you are correct. I do not see 6/200 because of his health issues. I can see 6/150. If the Twins do not know what he wants the FO is much worse than reported. With his latest injury, it will be hard to get full value this summer (I know it sucks). If he wants more than 6/150 or close, I believe the Twins have to trade him this year, and go for the bigger rebuild. We do not know if their will be a season next year (full or shortened). The CBA is likely to undergo major changes. Either the QO could be removed or FA moved to after 4 years or 5. If the owners go that route, I would guess they would want a hard cap, that is not going to happen. So there is a lot of risk here. I would pay within reason, but don't know status or if reason is even a possibility.
  18. beckmt
    If you want to stay competitive, you have to pay both. If not (especially with Berrios), you are looking at best at 2023 and probably 2024. That is why money comes in, and that comes from the top.
  19. beckmt
    This is as much a Pohlad issue as the front office. We do not know budget or targets. Injuries have played a big part, but the path forward is very tricky. At this time they need another year or two until we can fully evaluate the pipeline (especially the pitching, which is supposed to be their strength). I feel we are on the path to being competitive year in and year out, which will be a nice change given the decade long dips, valleys and heights we are seeing now. Consider 2020 a lost year and they have had only 4 years to produce. A normal cycle would be 6 or 7 for a mid market team like the Twins. However if next year is more like this year, then you have issues. Big step will be will Pohlad give them the money to pay Buxton and Berrios and should they. That will determine the short term path of this franchise. If you pay one or both expectations rise, otherwise you are looking at 2023 at best or 2024 before we are fully competitive again, and that is only if the young pitching arrives. That will tell the tale.
  20. beckmt
    we have an owner with more resources than Cleveland, so this should not be an issue
  21. beckmt
    I hope Happ does not start either game this week, though I don't know who they could go with
  22. beckmt
    Two things you did not touch on 1. With the CBA issue will there be a full season next year. 2. With changes to the CBA expected (and I don't know how it will go down), do you dare to lose both Buxton and Berrios for little or no compensation? This is the elephant in the room for the FO. It is also why I expect there will be only low ball offers this year for 1 1/2 year FA's (unless you can find a bidding war).
  23. beckmt
    That could happen if the virtual office stays for some companies. It is what is driving the housing market in the Twin Cities and Duluth at this time.
  24. beckmt
    I think Miranda is more like mid 2022 or 2023 if he can make it. He needs to move to AAA and see how he handles it the second half of the season. Pitchers there have more variety of pitches including decent offspeed.
  25. beckmt
    Some of them like Refsnyder are nice stories, but probably not long for here. My concern is at bats for the core, unless you plan on Buxton not being here after July 31. Donaldson and Sano are almost non tradeable, and I would presume that if Pineda, Cruz and some others are traded, they would bring back at least a piece that would have to make the 40 man. The question is whether this is a retool or a rebuild. That will be decided by whether you can extend either Buxton or Berrios, if neither you are looking at a rebuild and prospects that could be further away, if you can resign 1 or both it is a retool, in which case for a lot of the players you are looking at lottery tickets, as only Pineda and maybe Robles or Cruz will bring a viable minor leaguer back that would have to be put on the 40 man. Lots of variables here, but see very few of the Twins starting position player outside of Cruz traded, unless Kepler will bring back more than you think. Again this assumes that Buxton and or Berrios is resigned. I feel Buxton is gone and Berrios may be unless the Twins overpay to keep him. But that is another thread.
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