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beckmt

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Everything posted by beckmt

  1. beckmt
    In my mind Michael and Melotakis are too low. It will be interesting to see who is ranked above them. One is a pitcher that will be here either next year or 2016 and one is a prospect to could replace Brian Dozier when traded.
  2. beckmt
    According to the Star Tribune tomorrow there is an interview with Terry Ryan saying he is in good health and expects to return if Jim Pohlad will have him. The Frank Wren firing some of you refer too, I see as having 2 reasons 1. 2 very bad expensive signings the will cost the Brave dearly over the next 3-5 years (uggla and Upton) 2 Communicaton issues with top Brave leaders(remember Braves president was there GM for the 1900's run and Bobby Cox and John Hart are very experienced leaders). That being said, I think Gardy should go for many of the reasons stated above, but do not think he will. Best chance is not to renew Anderson and see if Gardy follows him out the door.
  3. beckmt
    This is a problem I have commented on before. Twins are now faced with the issue of creating a buzz for the product. Let's look at reality. 1. Twins are unlikey to sign an ace pitcher. Too much money and too much risk(though the Twins payroll can probably afford it, but do not think they could sign either of the top two). 2. Change field staff(again unlikely, but maybe a good chance of creating a buzz) 3. Making a major trade (better way of getting a front line starter, depends on the price) (best target is Cinni). I expect 3 will have to happen because the first two will not. Lot's of risk, lots of gain.
  4. beckmt
    If you want an FA bullpen, look at Detroit if you guess wrong. Twins need to turnover some pen, but my guess is, it will the AAA guys coming up, not FA signings. Expect only one of Thielbar or Duensing to return, and Swarzak may be gone(too much money and too many other options). With Burton also gone that would leave 3 openings in the pen, so it is a guess as to who will be up. Would rather have the pitchers with stuff up here, but we are probably a year away from them, so I am guessing that the loser of the starter battle will be the long reliever and 2 of Thompson, Tonkin, Olivares, and Achter will be here. Pryor would have to have a lights out spring to make it, rest are long shots until about midseason. Expect bullpen to be a work in progress in 2015.
  5. beckmt
    I believe that either Latos or Leake could be had in trade as Cincinnati has too much salary committed and wants to shake up the ballclub(remember the bad Brandon Phillips contract they cannot unload). Maybe if the Twins could get an extension agreement in place a trade could be the correct thing to do(want Latos not sold on Leake). I am bringing this up to want the Twins to avoid overpaying average plus ballplayers whose back end of the contracts become an albatross to making a competitive club. Twins have about a 4 year window with no huge salary commitments outside of Mauer so it should be possible.
  6. beckmt
    May should be given a chance extending into next year, but he should not be granted a spot on the staff. Nolasco had some issues earlier this year that seem to have been resolved, so we are looking at a staff with 7-8 pitchers for 5 spots(not a bad thing for a change). Signing a outfielder would not be bad, but the crop of free agents is very weak this year. Would not want to overpay for one, so am OK with the current situation or to use Dozier to bring a decent outfielder(maybe one of the Dodger ones(Kemp or Either)) in return. Twins do not have payroll problems at this time so could swing something like this.
  7. beckmt
    I would have seen what I could get at the trade deadline this year. I would not deal Dozier just to deal him, but if I got an offer that was decent. Would be looking at major league starting pitching either ready or just about ready. Twins have Polanco, Micheal, Gordon and a few others in the pipeline and have Escobar and Santana up here to work with, so would not worry that much about a replacement. Atlanta and San Francisco among others were looking for a second baseman. It would have been possible to get a good return for him. Also Tampa Bay might have been a destination. If you wind up with too much starting pitching you can deal from that when the Twins are ready to contend(2016-2017). Oakland and Tampa Bay have been two clubs that have done well be selling high. We need to consider some of that model, though the Twins are not that small market of a team
  8. beckmt
    Still am of the opinion that Brian Dozier is Brandon Phillips type player. That is someone who will be way overpaid for too many years. My bet would be to maximize his trade value and get a good return for him, while the Twins have an excess of middle infielders on the way up in the system. I know it is a risk, but you cannot get quality without giving quality. Let some other team pay Brian more than he will be worth.
  9. beckmt
    Interesting, almost a discussion of why not to sign big ticket FA pitchers. Would be interesting to see how the short term deals have worked out. But the short term deals were much riskier. And some of those are like lottery tickets. Small risk, large payoff. Doubt the Twins will be players for starters this winter, but hope I am wrong. We shall see.
  10. beckmt
    Southern League would make a lot of sense, much better in April and May, much worse to play in June and later, but still better than being forced to the Texas league where stats resemble the Pacific Coast League(hitters are inflated and pitching is deflated). Would prefer the Twins stay in the Eastern league, just may not be possible.
  11. beckmt
    Royals are in a class by themselves on a bullpen. Twins bullpen in average, but too many short starts the last month are taxing. Feel that 3-4 of this pen will be back, do not know if the arms in Rochester or New Britian are any better than what is here. Only when Burdi, Zach Jones, and a few others arrive will this change. The one lefty reliever in New Britian is about the only stuff reliever we have at the upper levels. Tonkin and Oliveras are OK, but little better than what we have here.
  12. beckmt
    Do not think much will happen. If Anderson goes, so will Gardy as those 2 are joined at the hip. Would like to see one of the minor league managers given a shot, things could not be worse. It will be an interesting offseason.
  13. beckmt
    no worries about this year. Need better pitching to advance. That should start arriving next year. This year will just bring a better draft pick in the spring.
  14. beckmt
    Agree, but think neither Parmelee or Nunez will be here not year as Twins will only carry 13 players after April and neither player will be needed, with Santana and Escobar being the super subs. Best guess is that Parmelee will be the first player out.
  15. beckmt
    There are many different ways to make a team better. The Cupboard was very bare when Bill Smith was fired after trying to get Twins management to up the payroll to help bring it back. This offseason could be a make or break as far as the perception for 2015 and the number of season ticket holders willing to renew. It may be you will have to spend money to get the season ticket base to commit. Front line starting pitcher would be the first thing needed to be serious about 2015. More an issue of whether the owner will spend the money than how good TR is. Farm system is now rebuilt and Twins need to move forward or we will be waiting for 2016(this is what I expect).
  16. beckmt
    Not surprising at all. Gibson will follow, not his fault like Gardenhire very little talent on that team. Towers will probably go back to helping or running a minor league system, more in his talent area.
  17. beckmt
    Nice analysis, hope you keep this up as I enjoy reading it.
  18. beckmt
    I think it will be Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May, Milone to start with Pelfrey in the bullpen. I hope we see Meyer early in the year, but not counting on it. Expect we will see both Meyer and Berrios later in 2015, TR needs to move a starter to create the room for the pitchers coming up. Rest of the candidates are filler you can find anywhere for very little.
  19. beckmt
    Nice assessment, very close to what I feel will happen. I expect Schafer to still be here as the fourth outfielder, but there is no reason to keep Parmelee and Nunez. Some of the relief staff will also be changed(good bye to Burton and Deduno). I think if you want to spend big money, spend on a frontline pitcher, otherwise save the money until you see what holes need to be filled after next year(when you have a much better idea of which young players are working out. If you want to make a move package Dozier, Nolasco, and maybe more for a real front line pitcher. Otherwise take some low risk flyers on rebound/reclaim starting pitchers. If you can, deal some bullpen arms(you look to have plenty in Rochester to fill the gap).
  20. beckmt
    Do not know why Hicks has graded out so bad. Santana will have to get a pass as he is out of position. Hopefully some of the players get better over time. Or could this be a case of fitting the statistics to the ballclub.
  21. beckmt
    Remember every team has to have 1 All Star(rules may have changed). Do not know how much this changes your calculation.
  22. beckmt
    Interesting point about the injuries to pitchers, it seems like a lot of our better prospect pitchers are getting the injury bug. Some of this can be traced to high school/college were winning is extremely important and coaches tend to abuse pitchers to win. Some of this may require changes so young pitchers do not learn heavy stress pitches until at least the high school level. Would be interesting to compare the Twins prospect pitchers against other clubs. Hope someone is up to the task, would make interesting reading.
  23. beckmt
    Schafer is not a long term option, more like a 4th outfielder(for which he is almost a perfect fit). Thought outfield crop is very thin this year, so may be more like a trade choice.
  24. beckmt
    I think the trade route should be explored in the offseason. At the current rate Dozier is going to equal Brandon Phillips, a very good, but not great player. I think if you could bring back a decent starter or outfielder plus a prospect, you have to look at the deal. Clubs have holes and in the offseason you could find out what he is worth(that does not mean automatically trading him), but in the Twins current state you have to listen. Sano and Buxton will probably not be here until 2016 and Twins will probably not be competitive until 2017. By that time he will be getting expensive(check Brandon Phillips contract). Young cheap pieces should bring very decent returns.
  25. beckmt
    Believe the Twins leave Pinto in Rochester until the end of the season, then he will be up here and us fans will get a better idea of what the Twins think of him. Do not see where he would play as Vargas will get the majority of the DH ABs and you would have to catch him 3 times a week to have him play 4 times a week.
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