LastOnePicked

I think you misunderstood my point, or I didn't make it well. A team like the Twins absolutely has to build and succeed through drafting and building a core. The issue is that this core - the players who are currently in this organization - are either a) not likely to be reliable due to injury concerns or b) not anywhere close to elite. Where is this farm system ranked at this point? 20th? 25th? Which pitchers project to be top-of-the-rotation starters? Which internally-ranked arms project to throw 150-200 quality innings per year? How about position players? Who projects to be a 30-40 HR hitter? Who can seriously contend for a batting title? Who looks like they've got Gold Glove range? Who can steal 25-30 bases in a season? The answer to all of these questions is this: no one. While there have been some promising seasons and some compelling minor league storylines, this team can't hold a candle to the talent that is acquired and developed by the big boys of baseball. And not even to the dregs who have used the last few years to rebuild. So what are we even doing here? Why are we even asking this FO to stay? They've been touted as a supremely intelligent group with the ability to build a sustainable pitching pipeline PLUS augment that staff with veteran reclamation projects that can rebound and anchor the rotation and pen. None of this has happened, and there are no signs to indicate that it ever will. It's sad and it's frustrating, but this team is going to have to take a few steps back into the cellar before it can take confident steps towards a title. And it's going to have to involve a new FO and new voices in the dugout. And the longer we wait, the harder its going to get to keep fans on board. In fact, that may already be too late.

I don't hate to say it at all. I want this team to win a World Series. There is no path forward to that goal with this core, this coaching staff and/or this FO. If anything, last year was the time to begin a rebuild and we're already a year off schedule. I'm drafting a blog post on this exact issue.

First of all, the Twins didn't do nearly enough to bolster the rotation. Gray worked out reasonably well, yes. Relying on the likes of Bundy and Archer was ridiculous, and ignoring the bullpen was a serious, and costly, mistake. It seems like the FO just assumed that the pitching pipeline was ready to fill in all of the gaps. That was maybe the biggest problem for this team, and it ultimately wasted a good year from Correa. But you also raise good points about the core position players, They were counted on, and they couldn't get it done. But should they have been counted on? Kepler has been a hot mess for three years. Sano hasn't shown an ability to adapt or stay fit. Arraez and Polanco have consistent nagging injuries. We don't even need to say anything about Byron Buxton and his tragic injury history. Yes, the FO saw the instability offered by Donaldson and Garver and made adjustments, but relying on the core that they kept to produce another division title was a questionable call at best. That's really my biggest concern going forward: the Twins are just putting too much weight on injury-prone players. The established core mentioned above are going to be another year older and even more prone to injury. The "new" core of Lewis, Kirilloff, Jeffers and Larnach are just starting their careers with exactly the same concerns, if not much worse. You probably don't get an all-star shortstop out of a player with repeatedly torn ACLs, or an all-star slugging LF with a history of chronic wrist pain. And the Twins need all-stars - they need an elite player somewhere on the field. Once Correa leaves, the only position on this team featuring an elite-caliber player will be the platoon/bench CF. Oof. At some point, this team is going to have to admit that it can't get to a title with this core. Yes, it's sad and maybe even represents some bad luck, but this team is so much closer to being the Tigers than the Yankees. If that doesn't suggest it's time for a total coaching and roster rebuild, I don't know what does.

"the Twins would be silly not to make Lewis a central part of their plan. With a central locker location in the clubhouse." I get exactly what you're saying here, but there is a danger in building a clubhouse around a player with serious injury concerns. I think we've seen this play out already with Buxton and how much his repeated injuries deflate the team's morale. And, according to an article one of the TD folks shared at the time of his OF incident, the rates of ACL re-tears after two tears already is ... not encouraging. I love Royce Lewis. I feel sick inside about what's happened in his career. He deserves better. Long-suffering Twins fans deserve better. I hate even acknowledging this, but there is actually a chance he won't ever play baseball at this level again, and if he does he likely won't be at full speed, The Twins really need to start building around a more reliable, durable core. Here's hoping he bucks the odds, and that Twins fans finally get their next generation all-star.

I'm sorry, but you're saying there are credible studies that validate the concept of "luck"? You're pulling my leg, right? Let's not get carried away with the idea that the 2022 Twins are a huge improvement of the 2021 Twins. They may end only one game better, record-wise, and at least the 2021 Twins could beat a team like the Astros. I try to think about baseball the way I want to see Twins leadership think. And from that perspective, I would NEVER, EVER hand over my team's fate to the concept of "luck." You have to fight with whatever tools/skills you have to make your own luck.

I appreciate the thoughtful response, but I couldn't possibly disagree more vehemently with this statement. A winning mentality makes its own luck, or it makes change when it falls short. I mean, isn't it funny how only the "lucky" teams seem to prioritize their depth, build a strong bullpen, can hit with RISP, and don't stick with a failing closer? I think luck has stunningly little to do with where the Twins now find themselves.

I'm confused - didn't we have this exact same conversation at the end of last season? What exactly do we expect to see change? We know who these folks are, and we clearly see their results. I don't think those results warrant another year of futility. If we fans don't push aggressively for change NOW - at the very least a new manager + pitching and hitting coaches - I fear we'd be making the same exact mistake as sticking with Colome or Pagan. Yes, there was past success with both, but the results now are pretty clearly damaging the team's chances at winning.

First, Cleveland continues to churn out reliable starters, despite the fact that they've been a winning organization for a while now. So yes, the Twins continue to fall far short of their example. Second, it's not so much the run differential, it's also the durability. Cleveland's young staff has remained largely healthy. Ours has not. That's what I think people are referring to when they say the pipeline is busted. You don't praise a pitching staff for promise, and there's not much to be excited about when an Ober or a Winder arrive and can only make 10-12 starts a year.

I've really been trying to pin down what's wrong with this club in terms of culture, and your reply helped trigger some additional thoughts, so thank you. I'll have to find the citation, but basically there was a research project a few years back that tried to explore the relationship between mentoring messages and student success on math tests. If I remember correctly, the project drew from a pool of students who had approximately the same strong math aptitude scores. They divided the pool into two groups and separated them: Group A were essentially told that they were average students, and if they worked harder than anyone, they could improve and actually become great at math. Group B were told that they were already high achievers at math, and that all they had to do was simply maintain their excellence. When tested at the end of the year, Group A outscored Group B by a large margin. That's not surprising. What is surprising is that when it came time to take optional tests - to test their learning along the way - almost every student in Group A took optional tests. Almost no students in Group B did. Rocco is very good at supportive messages. He's kind, and he sees the best in his players. Sadly, I think that's maybe part of the problem. I don't think he understands how to instill a sense of urgency and hunger in his players. He's stuck in 2019 thinking - that this is still a 100-win team. What he doesn't understand is that the 2019 team really wasn't all that good, and the playoffs proved it.

Except usually in a rebuild you gain top prospects, not lose them. If only the rebuild had started already.

Fair. But I'm sure people thought this about Jayce Tingler in San Diego, too. Epic collapses usually require a shake-up. And it seems to be paying off for the Padres.

Even if they had originally planned to do so, I don't believe the FO can possibly bring back Baldelli after this complete faceplant finish. I know a lot of folks here on TD think his job is safe, but I don't think you can watch the way this team has carried itself and keep him on. I'm not even sure he wants the job anymore at this point. Time for a change in the dugout. All new coaching staff in 2023.

Lewis absolutely cannot be counted on if and when he returns. Two ACL tears can't help but have a major impact on his career as an infielder. If he can provide anything, that's wonderful, but no one should count on him as a regular SS going forward. Lee and Miller likely won't be ready in 2023 either. This club will be just so much farther from contention without Correa, and they were clearly far away even with him. 2023 has to be the start of a true rebuild, so take your lumps with Palacios, let Lewis recover, let Lee develop and see if there's a low-cost SS to be found, either in free agency or through a waiver claim.

I sometimes get the feeling that Twins fans do more work to bolster this team than the FO. It's an interesting thought experiment, though. Trades for Lopez, Mahle, etc. wouldn't have happened, but perhaps Gray, Correa, Kepler, Polanco and/or Arraez would have been dealt for good prospects. Doubtful that the team would have rallied in August/September the way they did in April/May, but the vibe of a second straight losing year would have been buffered by the strengthened farm system and the sense that a rebuild was well underway. Come to think of it, I prefer your alternate reality scenario. The vibe would have been different, yes.

Correct. He's a competitor, and there are no other fighters here. The Twins need to develop top talent and a culture of winning. Put the money from Correa's contract into an organization-wide rebuild. Don't just sign Astros' former stars - become the next Astros.

Out of all of the terrible things that have happened this season, this sentence stands out as the worst. And it's not that you're wrong, either. Ugh, what a sign of a dismal franchise, when Jake Cave seems worth keeping.

First, I loved the response. I think it's a thoughtful take and a lot more generous and hopeful than my own. But, I really think I'd caution anyone who feels good about these options going forward. Two are veterans with MAJOR injury questions marks (Maeda, Mahle). Two are promising young starters with MAJOR injury question marks (Ober, Winder). Two are completely unproven commodities (Sands, SWR). And two are #3-#4 starters at best on a playoff-caliber team (Gray, Ryan). That's not what I'd call a lot of options that the team can bank on for 2023, no. And beyond those we mentioned, there are virtually no top arms waiting in the wings in the minors. Add to that, this will be a club with a brand new pitching coach with no relationships with the players on which to build. So, pessimism is warranted. And it may not even be an issue of them all experiencing injuries in 2023. This just isn't a team that can stack up against the competition. There are no elite players at any position, with the exception of our platoon CF, who is also injury prone. I stand by my argument: the time for a total system rebuild is now.

Good article. I understand where you're coming from here, and you're probably right about the team's "failure to capitalize." But I wonder if there wasn't a bigger problem beneath all this: delusional thinking. Bringing in Correa was the kind of "go big or go home" deal that we Twins fans have been begging for for years. However, putting him behind a starting staff of one established #2-#3 starter, two very iffy reclamation projects, one promising homer-prone rookie and another promising young starter with a significant history of injuries was questionable at best. Then, trading away your best reliever just before the season started for a starting pitcher with chronic arm problems and a closer who destroyed his team's playoff chances the year before was borderline insanity. Yes, Rogers did ultimately decline, but Paddack was almost instantly injured and Pagan - well, we all know exactly what happened there. No one should have been surprised. Added to that, the team put its emphasis on a resurgent Buxton as the team leader, and at first that looked like it would pay off beautifully. Sadly, reality couldn't be denied. Injuries take their toll on a body, and Buxton's season was derailed again, just as it has been, and just as it always will be. The reality was that this was a last place team that didn't have the pieces at SP, RP, C, DH and CF to compete in 2022. The delusional thinking was that the team could simply sign a top SS and a few bargain SPs and get right back into contention. Falvey and Levine put too much stock in their ability to build a pitching staff and relief corps. It's good they believe in themselves on this front, but seemingly no one else who follows baseball shares their confidence. The FO should have seen these many question marks. They should have realized that the previous window of contention had closed. It would have been disappointing, but they should have committed to a rebuilding process, using 2022 as an audition for young arms and rookie talent. Instead, they weakened the farm system in the offseason and at the deadline, likely prolonging any chance at a return to contention. The disappointing end of 2022 could have marked the end of Year 2 of a rebuild, with a surging farm system and a better idea of whom to keep and whom to trade. Instead, the work of righting the ship for this club still has yet to begin. Reality is painful sometimes. Anyone who thinks this team has a shot at contending in 2023 likely has a lot more pain ahead.

Maybe the real lesson out of this whole deal is this: be like the As or Reds. Admit when it's time to rebuild, unload likely-to-bust arms at peak trade value, and try to speed up the return to contention.

I'm thinking you missed the general point of the article (winning playoff games should be an absolute imperative for this club), but I'll run with what you might think is a knock on me. Yes, all I care about is the Twins winning the World Series. I wish more Twins fans, players and personnel felt the same. If you don't set ambitious goals, you'll never meet them.

I've seen this argument a few times, but where is this line of thinking coming from? I don't see anything that indicates that 2023 is a part of some plan for winning. No Correa. Injured prospects. Depleted farm system. Buxton likely having already given his best on the field. Busted pitching pipeline. This FO has shown absolutely no ability to sign impact starters or relievers. What am I missing about this strange focus on the FO's mysterious "plan" for 2023?

With respect, no. It has been 18 years since the Twins last playoff victory. If anything, expectations have become perennially too low for this club.

"the Twins are running a myriad of deals in order to get fans out to the ballpark on a dime." Sadly, that would still be about nine cents of an overpay for the quality of this club. But thanks for passing on the deals! ?

You compliment me, and yet your reply articulates the Twins management issues far better than anything I wrote in my blog post. Excellent points. Thank you.

The changes this team needs have to be intentional, though, and I don't see the will to change here. I don't even think the organization feels it needs to change. That's the problem.