stringer bell
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Everything posted by stringer bell
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I guess having a .998 fielding percentage means that he catches what he gets to. I don't think it means much more than that. His defensive profile was considered pretty poor going into this season, but he's been very good at first base for the first half of the season. The subject of this thread has been rated a far better defender at first than France. -
Wallner hasn't been good since he returned from injury. His OBP is way down and the strikeouts are up. I think a case can be made to send him to St. Paul for a quick reset, although I think the better answer is patience. He's been particularly disappointing with runners on base and when the game is on the line. I understand there are ebbs and flows in a career and a season, but I'm wondering if it would be good for him mentally to start mashing at St. Paul. Totally agree on Clemens. He's hit with enough power and driven in enough key runs to be considered an asset despite the low OBP and high strikeouts. I don't think his leash should be too long, given his age, predigree and career to this point. He's versatile and an okay defender and could be somebody who finds himself rather late in his career.
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Kody Clemens has been the second most productive hitter for the Twins. Yes, it is rather a small sample size and his career and pedigree don't give us much confidence that he will sustain that production. I guess the most promising part of his profile is that his swing speed has gone from average to near elite and that could explain his power surge and could perhaps be a reason that he will continue to be well above average at the plate. Ty France has been subpar as a hitter over the course of this season and he's slumped noticeably in the past month or more. France has been a surprisingly good defender at first base and was the Twins' best hitter in clutch situations for the first third of the season. Clemens has definitely been the better player since he was acquired by the Twins and should be getting at-bats over France unless or until he turns into a pumpkin.
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Okay, so Wallner has driven in three runs outside of his homers. That is Joey Gallo territory. The homer by homer analysis does show he hasn't hit all his homers in garbage time, but IMHO only one was really significant and the Twins wound up losing that game. Adding on is nice, but I'd rather take a couple of two-run doubles in tie games than adding a solo when the Twins are up two or three.
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Okay, I'm not that big into advanced metrics, but I like to check Statcast and Fangraphs on occasion just to see what the metrics oriented sites see in certain players. 2025 Royce Lewis looks like an average player according to Statcast, maybe a little better than that, and he's a decent defender. Most of Royce's graphs are middling, with as much blue as there is red. I've long thought that Royce's throwing inconsistency made him a subpar third baseman, but he hasn't displayed that this year. Does that mean Lewis will turn around and look like the player he was in 2023 and early 2024? I doubt it, but I'm not ready to give up on him as either a hitter or fielder. I have thought Lee is the best fit of current players at third base, but his performance this year hasn't moved him into a core player tier.
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I don't really want to pile on, but I can't remember an important homer that Wallner has hit all year. His home runs have come when the game was pretty much decided most of the time. The fact that he has driven in only six runs outside of his homers is mind boggling to me.
- 58 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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On the position player side, the Twins have not suffered too much from injury. The biggest loss has been two months of Luke Keaschall, who almost certainly will come down to earth statistically after a very nice start. Underperformance by Wallner, Correa and Lewis (probably injury related) has been the most obvious factor in the subpar offensive performance. I would say that on balance Larnach, Lee, Jeffers and France have performed close to, but below expectations while Bader, Castro and especially Clemens and Buxton have done far better than expected. Having two of the worst hitters in baseball at their level of plate appearances (Vázquez and Keirsey Jr.) gives the coaching staff fewer options. In a long season, things tend to even out. Many of the guys who have performed below expectations have had stretches where they looked far better. I don't see much hope in St. Paul. Julien's overall numbers are about league average. McCusker has been Gallo-like at AAA since his demotion, Eeles and Martin might be better utility players than Keirsey, but I don't think they would move the needle much overall. With the injured pitchers on the mend--it looks like Zebby and Ober could make a start or two this month--and a so-far healthy bullpen, I think there's a path for the Twins to make the playoffs and having Ryan and Pablo dealing they could have a chance to make some noise. It would require good health and for most of the underperformers to regress to the mean. I don't know if the Twins should sell. The expiring contract guys are valuable to them but wouldn't bring back much and trading someone like Jax, Ryan or Durán would bring back plenty, but would put a hole in what is a team strength.
- 58 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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I'd add Wallner as a major disappointment. Agreed that the lack of productivity from these three is a big reason why the offense has not reached projections.
- 58 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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Wallner—not so much.
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Clemens’ hits have been consequential, much more so than Wallner for sure. Hard to know how long it will continue, but he deserves to keep in the lineup until he cools off.
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I don’t know if C-4 will be in the lineup, but otherwise there’s no reason to rest anyone.
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The unofficial first half ends today. Health is looking up with the three starting pitchers and Keaschall progressing and Lewis appearing to be running better. Three guys—Lewis, Correa and Wallner—need to step up. Lewis hasn’t recovered from a dreadful start and Correa and Wallner have been worse than their mediocre numbers. The Moose has ten homers and 16 RBI. How is that even possible? Over a full season that would project to 30 homers and 48 RBI. Suffice to say he hasn’t performed in key spots. Correa has been flat out bad in the biggest situations as well. Ty France has faded after a nice start. It looks like a platoon of France and ………Kody Clemens is and should be in play for now. Clemens has been a far more impactful bat than anyone has a right to expect.
- 48 replies
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- byron buxton
- willi castro
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The trend for the homestand has been W-W-L. They need to break the trend and head into the All-Star break at .500. Sim has been good and the back end of the BP is rested and ready.
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As encouraged as I allowed myself to be after Wednesday's game, I am equally discouraged after Thursday. The formula for this team to be a winner is, first and foremost, consistently good starting pitching, getting contributions from the entire lineup and having a stout bullpen. Due to injuries and the ineffectiveness of Paddack and Ober, the starting pitching isn't holding up its end. The lineup has been woefully inconsistent and the "front end" of the bullpen has been pretty leaky.
- 26 replies
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- chris paddack
- kody clemens
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I remember the young Tony O as having above-average speed, but not really a burner. Until Billy Martin got here, stolen bases were rare. Zoilo had one season with more than 20 steals ('65) and no other Twin was really close. Tovar and Carew stole lots of bases, but never got to 20 HRs.
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Nobody ever accused Bobby Bonds of using performance enhancing drugs.
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I don’t believe there has been a 30/30 guy in franchise history. Given good health in the second half, Buxton could make it.
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One thing I've noticed is that Rosario is stealing a bunch of bases. I thought he was another slow guy who could barely handle a corner outfield spot, but based on his base stealing, he must have decent wheels. Gonzalez and Culpepper both would be advancing two levels to get to St. Paul. Possible, but not likely IMHO. Their performance in Wichita has been as good or better than what they produced at Cedar Rapids.
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- kaelen culpepper
- gabriel gonzalez
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Not technically a steal of home folks. It was literally a fielder's choice getting Wallner in the rundown, but allowing Lewis to score. I'll beat this drum for a long time--the Twins are a slow team. Trying stuff like the delayed double steal or scoring from first on a double depend a bit on the element of surprise and the margin for error is tiny with slow runners. If the Twins continue to be hyper aggressive, they are going to run into a bunch of outs. It does help that Lewis is now running much better, but one guy moving from glacial speed to average doesn't change everything.
- 28 replies
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- david festa
- royce lewis
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The wins yesterday and today make me want to believe. Good pitching, some really good defense with a sprinkling of base running to add a couple more runs. PPM (Perkins, Plouffe, Morneau) were discussing the Twins chances of contending and one of them mentioned three guys--Wallner, Lewis and Correa--as the keys to rolling on offense. I certainly agree and there were hopeful signs from all three guys today. The Buxton injury today points out just how vital Buck has been for this team so far. While Bader is a fine center fielder, the way he hit today shows why he was available pretty cheap on the free agent market. It appears that Buxton's injury is not serious, but we probably won't know for a couple days how serious the injury turned out to be. On balance I've enjoyed the broadcasts for the three former Twins turned analysts. Each offers something to the broadcast and they all have a sense of humor and interesting perspective.
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- david festa
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I presume Cubs fans will be POed by giving the Twins two runs--when Swanson held the ball and allowed Jeffers to score and letting the Twins score on the delayed steal attempt.
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Durán is a different pitcher this year. Less velo, fewer strikeouts and way more ground balls. Oddly, he seems better this year than he was last year.
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I think Sabato needs to sustain what he's done so far this year for at least another month.
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I haven't seen the hit charts, but I can't recall Bader hitting many balls to the right side or fly balls for that matter. There's a lot of guys like that who hit almost all their grounders to the pull side. It's probably a better chance to just swing to hit the ball hard.
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Nice inning for Beef Stew.
