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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    With all the strides in sabrmetrics, I am surprised that I've never seen a companion number to the ERA, namely the variance. The ERA is a mean, and the variance would measure how far from the mean the individual games went away from that. A pitcher who gave up 5 runs in 9 full innings every game would have an ERA of 5.00, but so would a pitcher who gave up 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 7, 9*. But the first guy would have a variance of 0, while the second would have a variance of 2 - buncha calculations involving squares and square roots, not tough but I'll spare ya. Of course pitchers don't go 9, so the calculation would need to be slightly more involved, but I digress. The variance wouldn't tell you one was better, but would answer the question everyone wants to ask about consistency. I suppose I want a guy with an ERA above 5 to be INconsistent with a high variance, while I want the guy with an ERA below 3 to be CONsistent with a low one. Then there's Skew and Kurtosis, but now I am well out of my depth. * Anybody who runs to Wikipedia to check on this will find that I stole the numerical example for convenience, and to make sure I didn't make a silly math mistake.
  2. ashbury
    The best way to keep a secret is to let no one know you have one.
  3. ashbury
    Sorry in particular to see Mastro go. Seems like a good guy. My first Adopt-A-Prospect lad at TD. Marginal bat when all's said and done, so it had to happen. I enjoyed a catch he made in Pawtucket a few weeks ago. Third out of the inning, and he was enjoying some praise from Walker as he approached their dugout. I was close enough to yell "nice route, Mastro", and he looked up and nodded acknowledgement. The little pleasures. Unlike the published anecdote from 2012 Spring Training, about keeping the 360's in CF to a minimum, he got on his horse and made a bee line for where the ball was headed to the left-CF warning track. Very good route indeed. He has some chops out there.
  4. ashbury
    Mastroianni, per mlbtraderumors.com.
  5. ashbury
    I assume though that insurance kicks in, so the team may still get some salary relief out of this.
  6. ashbury
    I might be the only person on the planet who didn't think "assassination" when I heard Trump's comment. I was thinking "armed general insurrection". Call me a generous soul.
  7. ashbury
    With that swing he can come play on my Slo-Pitch team anytime.
  8. ashbury
    Well, the Schaumburg Boomers are banging his door down, so he's got that goin' for him which is nice. http://static.deathandtaxesmag.com/uploads/2011/06/Dalai-Lama-FEAT-230x154.jpg
  9. ashbury
    Your question answers itself, as you went on to acknowledge. So then you have to look elsewhere. IMO the only explanation for installing him at 2B at AAA is that the team sees him as better than a utility infielder because of the bat, and only a second baseman in the majors if he's to be a regular. So they want to both get him completely comfortable there, and assure themselves that he's ready. Next step (now) is to give him an extended look in the majors. If no red flags develop, the new GM will trade Dozier in the off-season. This past trade deadline was too soon, by this timeline. So for 2016 Polanco and Dozier must co-exist; you can't sit Dozier unless you want to diminish his trade value. Utility infielder is fine for a rookie, anyway.
  10. ashbury
    Ichiro achieves a major milestone, 3 comments here. ARod gets released retires, everyone loses their minds. http://i3.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/013/052/schemer.PNG
  11. ashbury
    Yay Molitor?
  12. ashbury
    You're giving me goosebumps all over again!
  13. ashbury
    What do you mean, "your people"?
  14. ashbury
    I'm not quite sure what to make out of this.
  15. ashbury
    I heard his sister was a thespian in high school, too. His brother was one as well.
  16. ashbury
    "Adequate" on defense in baseball terms usually means "on days he's not DHing".
  17. ashbury
    Feeling a little embarrassed that I did that to you, you should just ignore it. / yswidt, right?
  18. ashbury
    I doubt that. McHugh would probably balk or something, if he really were asleep.
  19. ashbury
    Three hits in the inning, including a double. Aren't we supposed to have a run?
  20. ashbury
    Funny. But please don't start sniping at one another.
  21. ashbury
    #nevertrump to be replaced by #neverheardofthisguy
  22. ashbury
    "Do you have an extra fish?" My new motto.
  23. ashbury
    You kind of just defined what a black swan event is. Imagine Hillary passing out during the middle of a campaign event and extrapolate from there.
  24. ashbury
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Instead of using a secondary source, go to the primary. Nate Silver's site offers three forecasts. Now-cast: if the election were held today. Uses the latest polls. This shows 90+% for Hillary at the moment and is probably what your article was looking at. It's already swung back a couple ticks toward Trump. It's always going to be the most volatile one, and thus the most "newsworthy". Polls-only: uses previous polls as well as the current to try to sort out temporary bumps from the underlying poll trends. This shows 83% for Hillary. Polls-plus: uses the above, plus economic and other trends. This shows 75% for Hillary. I'm pretty sure the latter is the one Silver considers his definitive forecast. "If the election were held today" is close to meaningless for a prediction, since it is not being held today. All are strong for Hillary, but the 75% one includes an approximately 15% chance of some black swan event throwing things Trump's way. I'm not ready to say anything's in the bag in August.
  25. ashbury
    What he needs is the .500 and .369 BABIPs he was enjoying in 2015 and 2016 at AAA.
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