ashbury

Yeah, sounds like agent-speak to me. "My client is I am grudgingly accepting thrilled to join the Twins. My client I could have taken 2 years for $16M total more guaranteed money but preferred to try again next off-season join a team on the upswing." Which... is fine.

The cost is the modest salary, plus the loss of a draft pick. If he performs well, we can give a qualifying offer and more or less get the pick back; if he doesn't, then we don't. Of course, after this off-season's experience, the draft pick maybe should be considered permanently gone; giving the QO may mean having him for another year.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/twins-closing-in-on-deal-with-lance-lynn.html "According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the Twins are “closing in” on a deal with Lance Lynn. In a separate tweet, Heyman notes that the deal is expected to be for one year. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the deal will be worth more than $10MM." Updated a very few minutes later to... The Twins have agreed to terms on a one-year, $12MM deal with right-hander Lance Lynn, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Morosi also notes that the total value of the deal could increase to $14MM if Lynn achieves certain performance bonuses. An earlier tweet from Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported that the Twins were “closing in” on a deal with Lance Lynn (Heyman later noted that the deal was expected to be for one year), while Morosi himself reported in a separate tweet that the deal would be worth more than $10MM. The deal makes Lynn the latest victim of a slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to those they were expected to receive. More to come…

Okay, but you kind of omitted the other part of my post concerning breaking pitches, which I am more curious about. You can't combat launch angle with just fastballs, so which off-speed pitches should become more prominent? Might the knuckleball be poised for yet another comeback?

Completely off-topic, but for some reason your quip reminds me of this: many years ago a hitting coach gave our youngest son, whose fear of getting hit by pitched balls in Little League had become crippling, this advice on what to do when a pitch is coming right at you: defend yourself by hitting it with the bat. / it didn't help and my lad didn't sign up for future seasons.

Haven't adopted a prospect before? Don't hang back! It's really not that hard. It probably takes me an hour or so to set up a page the way I like it (but then I'm too picky, and you might be quicker), and then a few minutes per week to post updates of the player's performance. Here are a few tips on getting started. First, of course, read a few existing prospect pages, and decide what layout and writing style you would like to follow. Most adopters tend toward a straight journalistic style, rather than try to deeply analyze the player's ability or to forecast his future. We're just fans and we don't have to try to be something we're not. Begin your page by going to the Adopt A Prospect 2018 forum and click "Start New Topic" at the top - this will begin the thread that is all about your player. The pattern here is to use the initial post in your thread to introduce the player, and then you'll post response comments as the season progresses, to record the player's on-field results or off-field news. Choose as a title "Player Name - 2018". Most prospect pages start with basic information: age, height, weight, handedness, birthplace, schools, how acquired. The sources I use are Baseball-Reference.com and the player search tool at mlb.com. In fact, I bookmark these player pages, because I will be using them throughout the season. If I find discrepancies in information between the two, I do a little extra google searching - or for instance I just assume that the taller/heavier number is correct since players are sometimes still growing, not to mention that weight isn't a static number during a season anyway. Photos aren't mandatory but they do add some visual appeal to the page. (See how boring this page looks?) Probably I don't need to explain about using Google Image Search. One photo is sufficient, but additional ones can be fun if they add something, for instance an action shot to go with a portrait-style closeup. Give a paragraph or two recapping the player's career to date. A few adopters invest time researching for personal tidbits, through browser searches mostly, but a perfectly good player page can be constructed with just the on-field information gleaned from the above player links. It is better to not simply recite a ton of stats, since you can provide a link to those stats pages and let the reader go see - pick out some highlights if you want to, or characterize the performance from year to year. Write what you would like to read, and you'll probably hit the right balance. If you have an interesting reason for choosing the player, by all means share it with your readers. Before the season, you may not be certain which Twins affiliate your player will be on. So try to write in a way that your first page won't look out of date as soon as the season starts. The posts you make later on can provide time-dependent information. OK, so once the season starts, how can you find out how your player is doing? Again, I use the player page at baseball-reference.com as my starting point. On it (make sure you're on the Minor League page for the player, if he has any major league experience), click on the "Minors Game Logs & Splits" link, which will take you to a page listing each game the player has appeared in this season. Click on the Date of one of these games, and it will take you to the Milb.com box score. Not only can you peruse the box score, but if you click on "Log" on the box score page, it will take you to a play-by-play log that lets you figure out virtually anything about what your player did. But wait - there's more! Click on the Recap link, and you will get one or more stories about the game. You can also click the Highlights link and see if anything in there is interesting regarding your player. For starting pitchers, I try to post an update soon after each start. For other pitchers and for position players, weekly works out well - but if something big happens, like a two-HR night, by all means disrupt the pattern and post the breaking news! On that b-r.com Game Logs page, you can also scroll down to find some "splits", season statistics regarding lefty-righty matchups and home-road splits and so forth. Additionally, the page allows you to click a starting date and an ending date for a range of games in the logs section, so that you can for instance say "Joe Shlabotnik hit an astounding .235 and scored two runs during the week of June 10, by far the best performance of his career." (Make sure to click on a place on each line that isn't a web link, for instance the "Rk" column.) The local newspaper, for either team in the game, will often have online stories about the game, giving perhaps an interesting nugget or two for you to use. I have used these: Rochester: https://www.democratandchronicle.com/ Chattanooga: http://www.timesfreepress.com/ Ft Myers: https://www.news-press.com/ Cedar Rapids: http://www.thegazette.com/ Elizabethton: https://www.elizabethton.com/ In addition to game stories, sometimes if you search your player's name at these newspaper sites you will locate a human-interest story about your player that you can share with your readers - that's a staple of newspaper content during the season. Or, you can periodically do a broad browser search on your player's name, just to see what recent news might be out there on the World Wide Web. Some of the above newspapers provide an email address for their beat reporter for the team (and in a minor league town, there will be only one). Once or twice, when my player hasn't played in a few days, I have reached out that way to ask what's up, and have gotten a nice reply with the needed information. Again, it all depends on how much time you want to invest. During the season, your player may have an article or other interesting information posted on TD. Feel free to cross-reference in both directions - provide the link in your prospect page, and also go to that article and post a comment pointing back to your prospect page. There's also usually nothing wrong with politely posting a link to your TD prospect page in a comment page on some other site that mentions your player, if you believe their readership would have an interest specifically in your player. And finally, depending on your interest, you can follow your player via social media. The b-r.com player page often lists a Twitter handle. By following it, you may learn some things as the season goes along that you can share. Possibly you can communicate with the player this way and even get a burning question answered now and then (please use good judgement if doing this). The Twins have a social media page at http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/fan_forum/social_media/index.jsp?c_id=min That's about it. Check back on this page now and then, as I may think of other tips I have temporarily forgotten. And by all means, PM me with any additional suggestions you may have!

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. From the pitcher's perspective, isn't a rising fastball the antidote to the attempt by the batter for a higher launch angle? Wouldn't that, and perhaps a trend toward more 9-3 breaking pitches rather than the 12-6 variety, negate a lot of hitters' success? The short-term result would be more of the Three True Outcomes style of ball, but batters would then respond accordingly.

Hughes has more than 10 years' service time, which is above the threshold where he can't be sent to AAA without his permission - I forget what that threshold is, seven years or so.. He probably doesn't have minor league options remaining anyway. My question of whether it has been stated that his salary is the reason for favoritism is probably unfair, after I thought about it, since a FO won't state such a thing directly. The reporter/columnist could be offering his own analysis, or might be a conduit for something the FO wanted to have out there. Sanchez is a different matter than other guys on guaranteed contracts - adding Sanchez definitely costs new money while someone like Mejia's salary is pretty much a given. I just don't think it's a certainty what role the salary has - but roster decisions come down to other things such as the necessity to either have the player be on the 25-man or else be removed entirely. There's a correlation because the guys with high salaries usually have the most constraints on what you can do with them - it still doesn't mean money is the motivating factor. (Maybe.)

Has anything been stated or is it just an assumption? Because an equal assumption is the lack of an easy way to send him to AAA could also be what gives him precedence in early-season planning over a younger player with minor league options.

I could look, but I doubt I'll find any post that demands you like him. Still, I'll offer a point that I don't think was brought up recently, that his recent manager had rave reviews about Rodney's work ethic - tremendous was the word he used, I think. That, plus my understanding better about the silly hat thing, has me approaching the season with an open mind. I'm still not sure I'll be able to sit through many of his innings, though.

Someone who looked at his final 3 starts of the season and concluded, "whoops, never mind about some mythical corner having been turned"?

I believe this is just exceedingly long-sighted and good. If the owners feel there is a problem, negotiate at the next CBA bargaining session. Meanwhile, pay more attention to the spirit of the current agreement than to the letter of it. If we were in a recessionary economic environment, where ownership was currently shouldering more of the burden of risk, I'd probably feel a little differently. But in any economic environment, the players always shoulder a lot of risk. One of my guiding principles: "He is no fool who loses what he cannot keep, to gain what he cannot lose."

Almost always, when heads of state meet it's because the details of the agreement have already been hammered out by the necessary people. So a backtracking of the announcement would, for me, be just another instance of the rookie mistakes that I expected from an administration trying to tout their lack of Washington insider-ness. Still, wait and see.

I've modified the title to be simply "Go sign Arrieta", and if Dave can clarify what the CC: was supposed to impart, maybe we'll try a further reworking. I took out the word "Twins" because the phrasing did look to me like an active rumor being out there.

I don't think that's how a negotiation goes, unless I am misunderstanding you greatly. I want Lance Lynn. I think he's worth a 2-year contract, and a third-year option based on performance numbers would sit well too. For more than that term, though, he becomes more trouble (to the front office, and their planning) than he is worth. If it takes a 15-year guarantee because some other team is currently offering 14, let them have him and then they can deal with the aftermath. If it takes a 15-year guarantee because he has turned this into a test of wills, he can sit, as far as I am concerned. I have the same position even if the guarantee is 3. Actual dollar values, I'm a little more flexible about. But if $25M this year is what it takes for Lynn, probably that limits me as a GM more than I want. I could use that money to take on an expiring contract at the trade deadline for instance. With it being a buyer's market, I see nothing wrong with trolling for value, and find out which fish nibbles at the smaller bait. That's because there is always a great deal of uncertainty. You don't actually know what the player's view is. In a soft market, Falvine has come away with LoMo and Addison Reed (AdRe?). In a seller's market, their approach might have come away empty.

I doubt the front office under-values the roster slot. But they probably view as another desirable outcome, Hughes rounding into shape and contributing strongly during a contending season, using that slot. I don't share their optimism, but they have info I don't have, so my pessimism is merely that.

Agreed. I still keep coming back to the phrase my Econ 101 prof used: "markets will clear".

Ima stick my neck out and guess Ehire would volunteer too.

Well, the subject line gave fair warning... so I guess I won't ask for those 40 seconds back. / I did click Like, after all

The announcement holds no sway for me. But the results of any May meeting? ... I do have an open mind. Even as a non-supporter for Trump, I see him swinging for the fences on this issue, and if he connects then he deserves credit. I do have my doubts that he achieves anything except a return to the status when he took office. I don't know why I didn't think of a Russian angle to this before it was mentioned here. That does mean scrutiny of any positive outcome is needed.

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/9b/9b4c5146e6cd2feeaa2067cb08cd0987076663267b84f939f51e29e2b966bdd4.jpg

They aren't interchangeable. Escobar, when healthy, has a better than average bat for a middle infielder. His glove is so-so. Adrianza has a better rep on defense, but I have my doubts he would hit well enough if given regular duty. Either one can fill in defensively, in the outfield. I forget if one has been tabbed as an emergency catcher. On one hand, management could "pick their poison". Conversely, the two can coexist on a roster, and contribute, if no other needs are pressing.

There are pitchers who have more pitches per plate appearance, and seem to do just fine. Corey Knebel of the Brewers threw 4.40, whereas Rodney threw 4.22 and the league average there was 3.80 - but his ERA was 1.78 and his WHIP and BABIP and so forth were decent looking despite a lot of walks. I don't especially care for the kind of pitcher who just kind of slops it up there and hopes to get batters to swing because of a funky motion (my impression of Rodney over the years, though I don't know anything about Knebel), but maybe I will grow to like Rodney.

Boston Globe published an article looking at the various causes of the free agency situation. It's behind a partial paywall, in case you read more than a few Globe articles online: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/03/09/here-why-baseball-free-agents-had-such-bad-offseason/4wm4rQEmb1yQVQQ9pFxggL/story.html I didn't spot anything major that hadn't already been discussed here, but it's a good overview that covers many angles. The Twins' Derek Falvey is quoted at one point. In it, is one assertion that "the most productive players are in their early- and mid-20s". I took a look on b-r.com at the top 20 WAR position players and pitchers in 2017, and found that among those batters, the median age was indeed 26.7, but with pitchers it was 29. I imagine there are studies that delve into the matter more deeply than this quick measure, but it does suggest looking at starting pitchers differently than position players for this kind of analysis. (The next paragraph in the article reduces the scope of discussion to batters, so maybe a slight editing was missed.)

You left out the best part of your story: your dad named his next cats "Beer" and "Whiskey".