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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Straight white (non-Hispanic or Latino) males make up, what, 30% of the US population these days? Just by probability (assuming qualified candidates are uniformly distributed, yes?), it would be only 50-50 (70% times 70%) that neither half of a ticket would be that, and under 10% (30% times 30%) that both would be. The days of Romney-Ryan or Trump-Pence tickets as a default way of operating are gone. Oh wait, they're not, apparently.
  2. ashbury
    The mane looks a little different, however.
  3. ashbury
    I wonder if this is what it would be like if RandBall's Stu started a game thread.
  4. ashbury
    Just to be clear, I don't think the study got into value judgements of "overweight" or not. That's a medical decision to make, and BMI no doubt is one of several factors going into that. If the league as a whole skews to high BMI, that probably only highlights that BMI alone is not a strong indicator of health or fitness. Muscle weighs more than fat, yadda yadda yadda. This study used BMI as one of several metrics, and it happened to be one that turned out to have a positive correlation to the particular injury. But, if (say) having tree-trunk thighs is somehow causing a throwing mechanical issue that manifests in the elbow, it's worth knowing, value judgements aside. Everybody knows that pitching is greatly about the legs, but perhaps there is the risk of having too much of a good thing. (That's not a conclusion the study drew, I'm just throwing it out there as the kind of thing that I imagine teams will look at.) Come to think of it, a certain third-baseman of our acquaintance has muscular thighs, and he managed to blow out his elbow a few seasons ago. Just sayin'. (OTOH Alex Kirilloff had elbow surgery, and his build is more normal.)
  5. ashbury
    FWIW b-r.com lists both as growing up within a few miles of each other in the suburbs north of LA, so it's very possible there's a family/social connection.
  6. ashbury
    Impossible to process.
  7. ashbury
    Not the kind they were said to be throwing in Portland, you wouldn't. Bad way to get extra calcium into your diet.
  8. ashbury
  9. ashbury
    If only someone would take the time to track these things... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=schoojo01&year=2019&t=b#all_bases Bases empty: OPS .724 Men on: OPS .795 Just 4 of his 13 HR have been solo. I'm sure it's possible to pick apart his performance. His BA with RISP is only .194 for example. But, compare him with RISP to, say, Nelson Cruz - in 74 such PA he has accumulated 23 RBI, while Cruz has 25 RBI in 73 PA even sporting a BA above .300 - hard to see a lot of daylight between these two batters in terms of getting the runners home.
  10. ashbury
  11. ashbury
    Different meme, but yeah.
  12. ashbury
    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/critter-fritter/
  13. ashbury
    I agree that it's hard, and I'm not fully versed in the distinctions among the stats out there, but I'd have to say that modern defensive stats seem to like our 2019 Twins a lot. "Elite" as in "absolute best in the league," no. Houston seems to be that. But top 3 or 4 in the AL? Probably. Have a look at the baseball-reference selection of metrics - Defensive Efficiency, Total Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved - and all of them put the Twins in a good light. Fielding percentage is about the last way I would evaluate any team, for two or three independent but big reasons. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2019-standard-fielding.shtml I also agree with DocBauer about the eye test. I think it's more reliable in small sample than equivalent samples for batting and pitching, for the simple reason that the batter and pitcher are both trying to outdo the other while the batted ball is not nearly so cussed. You still want a good-size sample, to get a sense for bad hops and so forth, but you're less likely to get completely fooled about talent, and the ability to translate that into plays made.
  14. ashbury
    What the track record is, unfortunately, is inconsistency. Some games, he just doesn't bring his good stuff to the mound. I'm sure it's a mystery to his coaches - it's got to be a mystery to him too. It has to be frustrating to stand there on the mound in that situation, seemingly like one of those bad dreams where you are naked in public. Still, in terms of trust for the player, it is what it is. He's a long way from earning it.
  15. ashbury
    The crack moderation team took no chances and ran Google Translate, just to be safe. BTW: 同意する。
  16. ashbury
    The part of the city inside the ballpark gates suit me just fine.
  17. ashbury
    I had half a beer for dinner with my burger, so I'm not going to try to defend my post.
  18. ashbury
    Fair enough. Bid, but try not to win, is a strategy.
  19. ashbury
    With regard to accuracy, I don't see enough examples to rule out cherry-picking. Did they evaluate the recent Encarnacion trade, for instance? I'll speculate that what it accurately reflects is the state of the art with respect to amateur analytics. That's not nothing. It's also not gospel.
  20. ashbury
    I did a few minutes of web-surfing and didn't turn up anything. Without an official announcement, I choose to assume (speculate) it's some infraction of team rules, as opposed to anything mandated by the leagues. Missing the team bus twice in a month, for instance, or tardy to team meetings enough times to draw the next level of action. I would read little into it for the long term - the organization might just be taking a tougher stance on certain rules, making an example of players here and there. Again, pure speculation.
  21. ashbury
    I'll take Things I Did Not Expect To Hear Said Of The Twins in 2019 Versus Any Team Whatsoever, for $400, Alex.
  22. ashbury
    They will trade for hitters, whether or not we choose to participate. Question is whether you want to have one of those pitchers such as Bauer, when Cleveland obtains those hitters, or some other team have him while we locate someone else.
  23. ashbury
    I have placed a tangent on body mass and UCL tears in a separate thread: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/33772-statistical-study-on-ucl-tears/
  24. ashbury
    A statistical result like that is usually only the beginning. It points toward interesting questions revolving around "why". Whether or not BMI is a flawed metric for being "unhealthy", it's a concrete metric for an aspect of "size". The correlation the study found was strong, but that just opens the door for specifying a better metric for the various factors that go into "size" and how they could be a cause for this-or-that outcome. Re-doing the study for shoulder injuries (DL/IL time, etc) might also be illuminating. If UCL correlates in a way rotator cuffs don't, wouldn't that be interesting? Chris Sale and Alex Meyer have shoulder troubles, Micheal Pineda has UCL ... one can go back and forth with anecdotal evidence, which is why the structure of a statistical analysis should be better. I'd be surprised if teams weren't already on top of this, but it was interesting to see it come from someone so far outside the mainstream. Part of the point is that the data is out there, so that even a bright high-schooler with good mentoring can tackle it. So, why* haven't I? Anyway, this prospect fits a profile that used to be considered a better risk because of a sturdy build, and perhaps that opinion will abruptly shift. For all I know, the Twins were able to sign him in 2017 because other teams were already 2 years ahead of them in this bit of analytical insight (assuming it is solid). * Skillz
  25. ashbury
    Probably that football-score game has potential in our Fun With Numbers thread?
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