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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Nor Sandy Koufax. Nor Walter Johnson. Oh wait, Johnson is probably still under the reserve clause if we want him. As for Nelson Cruz, he's been enough above-average, even in the demanding role of DH, that I'd be entirely happy to risk a one-year contract in the $10M range to ensure not missing out on another such season if he proves to be still capable. I'm a cheapskate at heart and would not lightly throw away close to 10% of my team's annual budget for salary, but I also want above average performance relative to the competition at every slot in the lineup I can get.
  2. ashbury
    No arbitration estimate to my knowledge was as low as $8.0M. This helps confirm what we thought, that although Eddie has playing value as a left fielder, he had negative trade value when the Twins finally let him go. If this were not a pandemic year, it would for me be evidence that the arbitration system needs to be reworked in some manner. I think the intent is that the final year of arbitration eligibility should produce salaries near or just below market value. Rosario's not the only one this has happened to in this off-season. Hopefully this will self-correct in the coming couple of years. It's not good for the game for teams to have financial incentive to cut ties with popular and good players.
  3. ashbury
    If it was possible to simply decide one day to be able to deal with breaking pitches in the dirt, more players would do so. (No, I haven't scouted Cavaco in person or on video, it's just my guess. Also it's my hope - if he is instead swinging through quality fastballs, the problem is worse.)
  4. ashbury
    Depends on how much of a dropoff you have, by not having the best DH possible day in and day out - that could be a differential of .100 in OPS, or more. Of course, at his age, there is no guarantee Nelson Cruz will remain that guy anymore - or maybe one of the corner-position youngsters is ready to close that gap. I'd be inclined to pay Cruz's salary to find out, though.
  5. ashbury
    From the MLBTR article: "Notably, Yamamoto’s 2019 season ended with an IL placement due to a forearm strain. In 2020, his already modest 91.5 mph average fastball dropped to just 89.8 mph. He didn’t spend any time on the injured list in 2020, but it’s certainly plausible that there were physical reasons for his drop in velocity and his abrupt downturn in production." What's the correlation between forearm strains and TJS? That plus the drop in velo suggests we'd just be buying into surgery. Ordinarily I'd be OK with a minor league signing, but maybe not if there are significant hidden medical expenses. I don't have any insight into how surgery is paid in MLB, though.
  6. ashbury
    Middle infielders typically get more fielding chances than outfielders.
  7. ashbury
    I suspect more than a few people's homes have been lost already, from taking this view.
  8. ashbury
    Darren's tweet confirms that Rocco should be able to keep the egos in check and make this work.
  9. ashbury
    We have 2B too well covered. And while I usually favor trading from oversupply, not when it's the younger and still good talent that will depart. Wong's not ancient, but now is officially on the wrong side of 30. I wouldn't be sad to have Kolten Wong on my team. It's just that signing him seems... inefficient, I guess, as it requires additional steps.
  10. ashbury
    "Twins scout B. Sanders attends the free agent showcase shortly before the signing."
  11. ashbury
    What HAPPens next? A season of puns are next, apparently.
  12. ashbury
  13. ashbury
    Tie. If I had Kirilloff and was offered Lewis in trade? Probably I say no. If I had Lewis and was offered Kirilloff? Probably no.
  14. ashbury
    I don't do many hawt taeks but I won't deny I'm a contrarian with regard to Ozuna. Up and down years, with a BABIP close to .400 in 2020, leads me to forecast him more like an .800 OPS, which is about where Steady Eddie has sat for the last several years. I see Ozuna's bat in the same class as Rosario's, not Cruz's (historically). I don't think either Ozuna or Rosario has a well regarded defensive game - Atlanta thought so highly of Marcell's LF prowess that they DHed him 39 games out of 60 when given the one-season opportunity for that lineup slot. Ozuna for me is the anti-Cruz. With him you'll be paying in part for something you don't want to have to use, and what you do want isn't quite what it's cracked up to be. When talking about veterans, pure DH is a much better use of money. I was OK with trying to trade Eddie and then letting him go (he'd be an expensive fourth OF), but I believe whoever gets him will both use him similarly and wind up with fewer regrets.
  15. ashbury
    Non-tendering Eddie Rosario and then signing essentially the same player in Marcell Ozuna for a greater sum over a longer commitment would be a pretty bad look.
  16. ashbury
    Dysentery? Luxury. Back in my day they would have made fun of me if I didn't contract Bubonic Plague at minimum.
  17. ashbury
    Happ has given up 8 grand slam home runs in his career. Each of these was with the bases loaded. Not very clutch in that situation, if you ask me!
  18. ashbury
    No longer will we be Happless in the postseason! He could be an asset. The context, of what else is done in the off-season, will determine whether to say "meh" or "good." It's the kind of signing a cellar-dweller might make while waiting for the next wave of prospects to arrive; or it could be a signing a contender makes to solidify the roster.
  19. ashbury
    Nice to know they were finalists. Guess they're the Miss Congeniality of this off-season.
  20. ashbury
    I've never understood the value of a mutual option. How often does it turn into a second year of play? Seems like at the end of the first year, one side or the other will feel the salary is out of whack.
  21. ashbury
    Also Odo? You had him higher in your ranking than those two. The need to include the descriptor "healthy" in front of Odorizzi's name is why I've been lukewarm on giving him the contract he wants. I like him, a lot, and I think in particular he's a bulldog when on the mound. But the inability to get more than 5+ innings out of his 100-pitch allotment tempers my enthusiasm, and I just have this sense that he's always going to be juggling one nagging ailment or another for the rest of his career. I don't share your fascination with Profar. The risk with bringing in Simmons for SS is clubhouse chemistry, if Polanco and/or Arraez feel slighted by being bumped down in the defensive hierarchy, even in favor of someone with impeccable defensive chops. It wouldn't make Polanco a bad person, and the FO has a better insight on that than any of us outsiders do, but it still wouldn't be with 100% certainty. It's the move I would favor, absent that risk, and even with the risk it's something I would take to Rocco and say, "earn your salary, make this work."
  22. ashbury
    i'Ll fReAk OuT iF i WaNt tO !!!!1!
  23. ashbury
    I believe Marquez is signed through 2023 with a team option for a fourth season, all at highly reasonable salaries if he performs to expectations raised here.
  24. ashbury
    Marquez is one of the top 20 most desired players in all of baseball - prospects and veterans alike - if you trust baseballtradevalues.com's general methodology. It would require both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff just to make a break-even trade from the Rockies POV. And with Marquez having 4 years of team control they might not see a purpose to a break-even trade if they think they can contend again in 2022 - they might think about Lewis, Kirilloff and Arraez, maaaaaybe. Interesting article explaining why Marquez is so coveted by literally 28 other teams besides ours and the one who has him. But IMO it's a non-starter (no pun intended) as a trade idea.
  25. ashbury
    From a well-known newspaper columnist this morning: Oh wait, my bad. The columnist is Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe and he was talking about the Red Sox. Didn't know where else to put this amusing parallel.
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