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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Note to self: a reliever's low velocity a few weeks into Spring Training may or may not mean anything.
  2. ashbury
    There appears to be a hitch in your swing.
  3. ashbury
    This being a known problem with Spring stats, it's maybe not too surprising that somebody has tried to do something about it. 2021 Spring stats are being kept at baseball-reference.com, and in that site's basic display they show a column called "OppQual", which as the name suggests is a measure of the average quality of the opposition (MLB, AAA, AA, etc) in a batter's plate appearances. To my surprise, the Turtle's opposition quality is exceeded only by Simmons (who has only 6 PA so far) - if there's any padding, it's not of his stats.
  4. ashbury
    I want much more than one, but one is the obvious starting point.
  5. ashbury
    If I hadn't seen the news reports elsewhere, I might have assumed this meant a really thorough round of flossing. Not just the particles of meat - that sprig of parsley placed on the steak by the fancy restaurants can really stick between the teeth! (Not to make light of what was described as a root canal. Poor guy.)
  6. ashbury
    That first video = 10 minutes of happiness
  7. ashbury
    "Throw strikes but don't give him anything good to hit." I think that strategy has been around a while. This was a nice drill-down on the basic notion.
  8. ashbury
    This article makes a great argument why the Twins would jump at this deal.
  9. ashbury
    Artificial? It's oh-so-real. Target Field has less seating capacity than did the Metrodome and Metropolitan Stadium, by design. Is that artificial? Are you outraged by the scalping opportunities it must have introduced? You and I get outbid because our economy has a lot of wealthy people. Free market, baby.
  10. ashbury
    Shut Duffey down and get him checked out medically, then ease him back into throwing drills until the velocity is where it needs to be. This has the earmarks of trying to pitch through pain (*cough*SamDyson*cough*), and it's gone on long enough.
  11. ashbury
    My understanding was that Castillo would have been available ONLY in a package with one or two of their big contracts that have negative trade value. It's hard to imagine the package of prospects necessary to interest the Reds in dealing Castillo alone.
  12. ashbury
    I asked because by now it the whole topic is a sabrmetric chestnut (not just the leadoff spot), and yet not even a last-place team with a lame-duck manager has said "nothing to lose, let's stack the batting order by OPS, see if there's anything to it." The notion that you give your best hitters the most PAs doesn't seem controversial, and yet so often you see a mediocre guy batting second because of his "bat control." (If the bat control is so good, why isn't he hitting .400?) Batting Cruz lead-off could have negative impact on clubhouse chemistry, I suppose, if he took the attitude "I'm a power hitter, I want men on base in front of me, no offense intended to you #8 and #9 guys." He, and other great hitters, are only human and the manager has to consider their professional pride.
  13. ashbury
    What's the closest example you can think of to a team having done this?
  14. ashbury
    Yeah, Randballs Stu, you need to step up your game a notch. You got beat by Reality. Next time go big or go home!
  15. ashbury
    Kenneth Tuss? For an editor I would have gone with Mark Tupp, or Adeline Moore. And Kyle Garlick's parents should have named him Eureka, instead.
  16. ashbury
    I echo the question about Royce Lewis. I thought his hit tool was considered near-elite.
  17. ashbury
  18. ashbury
    "Railing and bars... that's where the ushers come in." Nice private entrance. I gotta get a job as an usher!
  19. ashbury
    Pretty sure both are scaled to have 100 be league average. wRC+ on fangraphs is park-adjusted, as is OPS+ on b-r.com. WAR is the only commonly-used metric I can recall that contains a defensive component. On b-r.com their offense component to WAR even contains the defensive position adjustment, which for some purposes may be useful but usually I find a nuisance.
  20. ashbury
    OPS doesn't have strong mathematical underpinnings - in addition to the matter of scale that you raised, it adds ratios with different denominators, which is definitely ad hoc at best. And yet.... every time I look for significant daylight between OPS and WRC, I don't find very much. In the case of Simmons, (baseball-reference) OPS+ and (fangraphs) WRC+ track for him as follows: 2013 90 91 2014 75 71 2015 84 81 2016 91 90 2017 102 102 2018 108 106 2019 78 79 2020 95 98 Even if one stat is more sound than the other, the difference isn't enough to sway me from using the one that is derived a little more simply, at least for everyday thinking.
  21. ashbury
    Yes. Charlie Barnes and Devin Smeltzer. b-r.com Cut them.
  22. ashbury
    I won't defend Kepler's BA, but he's willing to take a walk, which is amplified when no one is on base. And there's nothing wrong with a leadoff guy driving himself in with one swing. He's not ideal in the leadoff role and I hope Arraez earns the choice, but Max is underrated.
  23. ashbury
    Finding Matt Wisler 2.0 doesn't excite me. Matt Wisler 1.0 was so impressive they let him go. Each 40-man spot is valuable, so you want there to be a payoff from filling it. The payoff from Wisler barely recouped the investment of time and resources. It wasn't a failure, but it's not a shining example of exceeding the competition either. Every team tries "projects" like this every year, so I'm not down on the process. I just want the standards for excellence to be a little higher.
  24. ashbury
    There is a recursive effect involved, too. So forget I said anything.
  25. ashbury
    I'm not sure we have anything resembling an oversupply, relative to other teams.
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