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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    This is such a good observation that it deserves boldface. So many statistical conclusions we wish to draw depend on independence within the data, and when that independence is lacking then the conclusions are suspect and must be re-evaluated. The link I offer there goes off into the weeds, but perhaps the opening sentence contains enough to give the gist: "...update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available".
  2. ashbury
    You're the Rosterman. You tell us!
  3. ashbury
    He'd be on the bubble for a 40-man spot on my team, and I don't have a clear enough picture of who the alternatives are (once the chaff is gone from this year's roster). He seems to be too good to just give away, and coming off a season of injury, it truly is a dilemma. First choice is to try to find a spot for him, and second choice is to try to include him in a trade.
  4. ashbury
    Well sure. But if you have a weather forecast to look at and you find it hard to argue against the prediction of rain, if you ignore it you will still wind up wet.
  5. ashbury
  6. ashbury
    This explains why Justin Turner was heard complaining to an umpire after a called third strike, "why, ye dadgum sidewinder, ye just bushwacked me outta a day's wages right there. I oughta swoggle your dadburn horn, is what I ought - then you'd be hornswoggled just like me." Scott Bush, CEO of SABR, could not be reached for comment.
  7. ashbury
    Polanco is here for his bat. Someone roughly as good with the bat, plus is actually a better than average defensive SS? Maybe the cost would be too high but he's not a player I would simply dismiss as an upgrade.
  8. ashbury
    When it's a slider, knowing exactly what's coming may mean to just lay off it.
  9. ashbury
    Absent injuries, Polanco's bat is a plus in the middle infield, but at SS his arm is not. I wouldn't supplant him with a glove-only guy, but a plus-glove attached to an okay bat is a way to improve the roster. Won't be a cheap acquisition but shouldn't break the bank either.
  10. ashbury
    Romo - no. Avila - no. Platoon Garver/Jeffers, since Jeffers seemed to have no problem with RHP (indeed his 2019 showed a reverse platoon split as well), and acquire someone's AAAA catcher who has 1 option year remaining, instead of spending on Avila. Adrianza - no. Marwin - no no no. Clippard - yes. May - yes. Hill - yes if the terms are similar to this year's, plus a bump for his demonstrating a successful recovery in 2020, but no commitment to 2022. Odo - no. Sadly. I like him. I keep trying to convince myself it can be yes, but I foresee him remaining fragile physically, and essentially a 4-inning pitcher, which makes it as much about the 40-man spot as the money. Cruz - yes if the cost is similar to 2020 and is a one-year guarantee only. More than that, no, and again sadly, because he was the right signing two years ago.
  11. ashbury
    For me, sometimes Sid was a must-read, sometimes a hate-read, but never a don't-bother-to-read. In sportswriting that amounts to a big success. End of an era.
  12. ashbury
    If the plan is AAAA catchers to back up the duo of Jeffers/Garver, better have several of them. AAAA usually implies "out of minor league options" - that's the way it gets learned he's better than AAA but not quite good enough for the majors. When you need to bring one up for a while (10-day injury perhaps) and then send him back down, if he's any good he won't pass through waivers - some other team with a temporary need will grab him. The only ones you'll be able to hang on to, in this scenario, are the ones no one else wants either. They can suffice during a short crunch, but can't really be your Plan B if you can help it.
  13. ashbury
    That's nothing. Zack Littell threw 117 pitches without hitting the catcher's mitt even once!
  14. ashbury
    All three of these pitchers passed through one or more other organizations after us before reaching the Rays. Anderson was a trade to the Marlins, Curtiss was traded to the Angels, and Slegers was the only one plucked via DFA/waivers (by the Pirates). It stings to not get the benefit after mostly developing them, but these other teams (plus the Phils on Curtiss) whiffed similarly and, unless it's a fluke, the Rays do indeed seem to have some sort of secret sauce.
  15. ashbury
    Analytically speaking this is quite a terrible article but my gut still tells me it's comedy gold.
  16. ashbury
    Pay a visit to https://www.baseballtradevalues.com and experiment with their trade simulator using Twins and Pirates as the teams. Musgrove is a high-value guy and Eddie Rosario just isn't. Would you consider a Kepler-for-Musgrove trade instead?
  17. ashbury
    Well played.
  18. ashbury
    The ability to go 4 strong innings could be the next "market inefficiency", at least if you pair up such pitchers in an effective way plus you have other starters who do give you 6+ on their good days. Of course you can't pay such a guy $17M. I'm more concerned about Odo being able to give you 30+ starts in a season anymore. Roster spots (active roster, or 40-man) are precious. Someone who may need to beg off at the last moment but not bad enough to put on the IL could end up not worth the trouble. Got a bad feeling about Jake in that regard. And I don't mean he's not a gamer, in fact I think he is.
  19. ashbury
    I want with all my heart to disagree with you, and it is pretty clearly the case that his was a "down season" relative to 2019. But it could indeed be that Max had his career year at age 26. He wouldn't be the first or only to do that. I wish I was a better fundamental talent evaluator to feel confidence that he can return to 2019 levels on a reliable basis. (I feel old: Joe Charboneau turned 65 this year.)
  20. ashbury
    We already have a ton of corner talent on the roster or knocking on the door. A DH candidate probably won't play up the middle, so we'd be adding to the glut. Whatever premium you're paying a guy for his glove is wasted, on the days he's at DH. It's much more effective *and* salary-efficient to roster a full-time DH, if he is indeed a DH-caliber hitter. Signing Cruz was a great move. Like most, I'm leery of committing much in a second year of a new contract, so that could be a reason to move on. Or if the team has reason to expect a dropoff in production from Cruz, that would remove the reason to keep him. But replacing a bat of Cruz's value is hard. I go back and forth but right now I'm inclined to try hard to retain him.
  21. ashbury
    Many sports have the concept of a "tweener" - a basketball player with good skills who is too slow to play small-forward and not strong enough to play power-forward, for example. Wade has the misfortune of playing in a sport where they don't have the concept of a right-center fielder. He is just not fast enough to be an asset playing every day in CF, but he doesn't have the pop you expect in RF or LF. He's a tweener and it's not clear how a manager can use him to be a real-difference maker. I love OBP more than most, probably, but there's a limit.
  22. ashbury
    Teams usually hit more solo shots than with anyone on. But the Twins do seem to be extreme. Across the majors in 2020, 57.5% of home runs were with the bases empty; the Twins, as you say, were 68%. I don't know how to get a ranked list in b-r.com and I'm not going to invest the time to look at 29 more pages, just to confirm my guess that they're not simply bottom-10 but dead worst. An additional 9 dingers with someone on wouldn't all be grand slams; and not all those 9 would have been in situations where 1-3 additional runs would have made a difference. Still, it's been something I've worried about. Opposing pitchers are allowed to vary their strategy based on situations. When Brian Dozier hit 42, it bothered me that 30 of those were good for only 1 run (that's a marginally even more extreme 71%) - seemed clear to me that pitchers became less likely to make a mistake high and inside with him when the game really was on the line.
  23. ashbury
    Yes. Both have chronic conditions that flare up without warning - migraines (over-simplifying a bit) and calf tightness. I suppose the guaranteed contract for Donaldson is the deciding factor. But both players are concerning in roughly similar ways.
  24. ashbury
    I wrote the above before learning that Perranoski had passed away. Bad timing. Rest in peace, Ron - you had a lot more good days than the bad one I teased about - a LOT more.
  25. ashbury
    Renée Zellweger, who played such a pivotal role in this already-forgotten film, was born on April 25, 1969. Do you know what happened on that date in Twins history? Tom Hall, a 21-year old phenom working as a swingman in the pitching staff, absolutely stunk it up, coughing up a 1-0 lead with 4 earned runs in the bottom of the first against Chicago, capped by a home run by the illustrious Buddy Bradford. Billy Martin pitch hit for him in the top of the second, and they went on to lose 6-5, wasting a fine comeback when Ron Perranoski couldn't retire any of the four batters he faced in the ninth and got walked off. That's what this film means to me. Avoid.
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