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Everything posted by ashbury
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Wallner might be a conundrum too difficult for standard logic using normal axioms to figure out.
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Sounds like a fine application of False Equivalence, combined with Ipse DIxit. I'm just grateful the site censor didn't flag me for "poopyhead".
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Even if it can't, it could serve to put the umpiring crew on notice, for future instances. This instance, though, appears to be where Shelton saw only the pitcher's late tap to the cap but not the initial one; if I've got that sequence right then no particular good is coming out of that one.
- 42 replies
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The Michael A Taylor trade continues to pay dividends to the Twins!
- 36 replies
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- taj bradley
- matt wallner
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Will Tristan Gray Take (Part of) Brooks Lee's Job?
ashbury replied to rstuedem945's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
They gave me a ride like that on my last day. It went around quite a bit faster, eventually the duct tape binding my wrists to it lost its grip, and I was on my way! As for Gray, there's probably a reason 3 other franchises never gave him a lot of opportunity. So unless we think the Twins' talent evaluators have spotted something those others missed.... -
I dunno. He didn't strike out. In addition to the walk and the dinger, he put the ball in play 3 times.
- 5 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- john brebbia
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Any other predictions you'd like to share, oh great Swami? I need to decide about whether to buy Apple stock around 2004, for example.
- 37 replies
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- 2025 trade deadline
- griffin jax
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My Physics professor back in college often referred to Proof by Intimidation, but I'm not sure if you're smart enough to see why it's the best Fallacy.
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Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
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Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
Tristan Gray. Secret weapon now deployed. -
Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
And here we go! BELL!!!! -
Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
Great scoop, Jimmy Olsen! -
Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
Okay, top of 9th, 7 to tie, 8 to take the lead for our shutdown closer. -
Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
3 run lead? Yeah, for this crew. -
Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
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Twins (Ryan) vs Royals (Cameron); 4/1/26, 6:40 pm CDT
ashbury replied to C-Gangster's topic in Archived Game Threads
No way: Wallner challenges and loses AGAIN? -
Do you wish to lodge a complaint about it? I strongly object if you do.
- 22 replies
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- tanner schobel
- orlando arcia
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Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
ashbury replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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I started to be snarky and post this to a particular thread that was annoying me. But I thought twice, and will post it here, in a vacuum. What's The Best Logical Fallacy? A famous Logic professor told me the Appeal to Authority Fallacy is the best. Anyone who doesn't say the Ad Hominem Fallacy is best is a poopyhead. Argument from Repetition Fallacy is the best. Repetition. Argument from. Best. Begging the Question Fallacy is the best because it is superior to all others. Cherry Picking Fallacy is the best; this message is all you need, to see that. Circular Argument Fallacy is best because nothing is better than an argument that is circular. Either the False Dilemma Fallacy, or pure evil, is best, ergo False Dilemma. Everyone is saying the Bandwagon Fallacy is best, so it must be. False Equivalence Fallacy is no worse than any other and therefore is the best. Have you or have you not stopped using the best: the Loaded Question Fallacy? I bet double my last bet the next one will say the Gambler's Fallacy is best. I just heard about the Recency Bias Fallacy. It's gotta be the best one ever. I mistyped another fallacy, so Hasty Generalization Fallacy is the best. I used to think Stockholm Syndrome Fallacy wasn't best but I'm warming up to it. I've had success with Proof by Example Fallacy as the best. This is Exhibit A. If Affirming the Consequent Fallacy is the best, then I wrote this. And I did. If the Slippery Slope Fallacy isn't the best, pretty soon we'll have anarchy. If you loved me you'd let me call the Emotional Appeal Fallacy the best. It can't be a best list if you leave out the No True Scotsman Fallacy. It's your job to prove the Burden of Proof Fallacy ISN'T the best. Not mine. Super geniuses Dunning & Kruger invented the best Fallacy, Overconfidence Bias. The Appeal to Nature Fallacy is best - it's only natural. The Black and White Fallacy is either the best, or else all logic is wrong. The Ipse Dixit Fallacy is best, full stop, case closed. The Red Herring Fallacy is the best because, oh look, a squirrel! The Straw Man Fallacy is the best because my opponent intends to outlaw it. The Sunk Cost Fallacy is best and it's too late to pick a different one anyway. The Survivorship Fallacy is best because it saved my life. The long-neglected Appeal to Pity Fallacy is the one to support as best. To deny Moral Equivalence Fallacy as the best is just like robbing a bank. The Tautology Fallacy is best. When outlawed only outlaws will have Tautologies.
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Twins Fall to Bottom of The Athletic’s Hope-O-Meter
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
We're on the same page. I was about to add, "Twins fans go to the ballpark to be entertained. Red Sox fans go to the ballpark to have fun. It's subtle, but there's a difference." A semi-quantitative metric for me: how often does the Jumbotron need to exhort the crowd to "clap-clap-clap"? I don't know specific numbers for most places but I can tell you the answer at Fenway; zero. And, as you note, the steps needed to correct this in MSP amount to marketing, not baseball acumen, and will take a long time even if done seriously. You don't turn an ocean liner around on a dime. (I know where I'd start: pay a few shills to yell "Let's Go Twi-ins" and similar cheers at appropriate moments during the game. There was some of that, organically, at the Toronto series in October '23. The name "Pablo" featured prominently that one game - what a muffed opportunity in the months afterward.) -
The Twins' Struggles Against Southpaws Aren't a Mirage
ashbury replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd start the analysis at the team level: RHP vs RHB: .721 OPS, 2298 PA RHP vs LHB: .694, 2064 LHP vs RHB: .738, 1262 LHP vs LHB: .611, 435 So at a macro level, our lefty batters were putrid against lefty pitchers, but they faced them so infrequently that it didn't drag down the overall numbers by much. Rocco might call this vindication for the platooning strategy. (In truth most MLB teams had a relative handful of L-L matchups last season, the Twins only a little bit off the norm.) The problem is that those lefty mashers didn't mash when facing right-handed pitching either. The hitters standing on that side of the plate didn't hit anybody, left or right. Which hitters from the left side got the least benefit against RHP? Brooks Lee is way up there, as you note, and the problem wasn't solely his .643 OPS but that the 349 plate appearances he consumed doing it was second on the team in these "favorable" matchups, meaning that the weighted effect on the team was magnified. But it was a team effort: Outman, Gasper, Julien, Keirsey, Roden, every one of those that the team rolled out there trying to do damage against righthanders did WORSE than Lee's anemic showing, and they combined for 400 PA. Ahead of Lee, Willi Castro was marginally better at .703 while he was here, but that's still below the majors average of .743 for the prized matchup. Our bat-first outfielders Larnach and Wallner were a rather "meh" .759 and .771 respectively. Only Cody Klemens with .797 acquitted himself since he allegedly brings some defense to his game as well. (And second-prize winner in the James Outman Lookalike Contest, Ryan Fitzgerald, logged .828 in very short duty.) There were problems elsewhere in the lineup, but the single biggest place to try for improvement is the "simple" art of finding guys from the left side who can clobber right handed pitchers - we were 28th of 30.- 12 replies
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- josh bell
- victor caratini
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Twins Fall to Bottom of The Athletic’s Hope-O-Meter
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I think baseball as a whole, and the individual franchises within, need to take an "all of the above" approach to the health of the game, with regard to the dimensions you allude to. It's not some sleight of hand trick to try to boost attendance in ways that are separate from the efforts that go toward rings, things, and shiny wins. A truly healthy industry would allow for owners to receive profits even in a down year, while having incentive to gain larger profits when the season goes well. I don't begrudge even the Pohlads that. What I do begrudge is skimming off a profit even while the hometown fan base is feeling surly. Places like Boston* and St Louis and Milwaukee have traditionally punched above their weight class (in terms of market size) relative to powerhouses elsewhere in the majors, as "good baseball towns". Colorado looks like is working its way into that camp too. I can tell you that attending a game at Fenway is a lot of fun even in a season where the Sawx aren't legitimate contenders. I'm super curious now to attend a random game at Coors and see what it's like. Surely the Twins FO has contacts and connections to tell them the answers that I have to make a long road trip to learn. * Yes, Boston. They are the 7th ranked TV market in the US, but it's hard to place the fan experience that low - they're right up there with the truly huge markets - and I don't mean just at the ballpark but talking baseball with acquaintances there.

