ashbury

Is "perfect contact" a skill that can be repeated and retained from season to season, or is it something akin to BABIP in that it fluctuates and usually regresses to a mean that is similar to other players?

Obviously if the team's analytics group tags a potential draftee as having a serious shot at a Hall of Fame career (only a couple of guys per year wind up actually achieving that of course), you have to take him at #3. If either of the two shortstops falls to the Twins, the choice is probably simple. I understand the argument about a position player having an impact every game while a good starter only contributes in 32 games or thereabouts. Still, if you look at Batters Faced, the league leading pitchers generally are up in the 800s, while the position players rack up Plate Appearances in the 700s. Those pitchers have more opportunity to affect outcomes at the plate over a full season than the batters do. A good batter has a chance to contribute something every game (and the best ones do something good nearly every game), but the impact is necessarily watered down by the other 8 players in the batting order. On the other hand a stud pitcher, if you are lucky enough to acquire one, can pretty much dictate the outcome for the 7 innings he pitches, 32 times a season. All that said, a look at the tippy-top leaders in WAR generally have higher values among hitters than pitchers. The developers of the various versions of WAR were presumably careful to balance their calculations so that pitching and hitting (plus fielding) are faithfully represented. Tangentially I want to add - a topic you didn't include in your video - the perceived risk of injury to pitchers, making a position player a safer pick at the top. I hope that's not seen as a strawman, because I point to the debilitating effects on Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis as the immediate counterargument. The position player that worries me in this calculation is the Catcher. And if form holds, it will be a catcher that the Twins will have to weigh against choosing a pitcher. Many position players play upwards of 155 games a season, but catchers generally don't. Behind the plate, they simply have less opportunity to rack up WAR, even when WAR includes their defensive contribution. Yes, the best-hitting catchers are in the lineup on their nominal day off - as DH, or maybe at a corner position where the arm is an asset. But then, you don't have the option to sign a full-time DH like Nelson Cruz because that free agent will simply refuse. Cruz was a fantastic bargain because you didn't have to pay anything for his glove. There's a reason why negative defensive value is assigned to a DH when computing WAR - it cuts down on your roster flexibility. Now, Cal Raleigh goes and makes a liar out of me by racking up 7.2 b-WAR last season. But Will Smith was second among catchers at 4.4 and nobody else cracked 4. The previous season William Contreras and Raleigh were at 5.0 and 4.6 respectively. If you believe at all in WAR as a rough guide to a player's value, catchers are a pretty big risk at the top of the draft, in terms of opportunity cost. I say this in full knowledge that I would have missed out on a Hall of Fame career from Joe Mauer with my draft philosophy. I'd take one of the shortstops but I would take Flora instead of Lackey.

Simkin Tribute Sports : Good stuff. The atmosphere seems very similar to spring training. Except you don't have major leaguers staying behind on an away date and batting leadoff every inning through the fourth.

This represents a break from tradition. I was expecting to learn of the signings of Bad Radke and Kent Hitt.

Zero F's given! Zero! Ah ah ah ah ah!

Bryce Harper won the MVP in 2021 playing 141 games and racking up 599 PA. Byron could miss a handful of games the rest of the way and still surpass that threshold. Is he a good bet? No. But his availability this season so far hasn't ruled anything out.

I especially liked how the Angels didn't respond by phone or text to this certified Insider. Maybe he should have consulted his rolodex and mailed them a letter. 😁

You're buying in mid-June. That's great. Who's selling? Especially reliable pitching, for cash?

I thought it was impossible to change anyone's mind at TD, but look at you, you proved me wrong!

Zero guarantee that the "sure thing" veteran, whether by trade or by free agency, continues to perform at his customary high level, either. Every transaction amounts to each front office placing bets, rather than acquiring commodities.

I feel as if this is just a cheap ploy for extra Likes.

I feel as if this is just a cheap ploy for extra Likes.

"No, Mister Bond. I expect you to strike out."

Pick a Lane? I pick Kyle Lane, because Tyler Lane has a less distinguished resume.

The gambling industry should move to the top floors of their buildings, to avoid this outcome to their real estate holdings.

Chattanooga and Pensacola too, just for old times sake.

Broadcasters in the low minors usually don't have a color analyst so they have to keep talking to avoid too much dead air. Maybe that? A tendency to say something, anything?

One of the best-known little known facts out there, in fact!

The facial hair makes him the next Fidel Castro. Is that his ceiling, or his floor, as a prospect? I don't know that.

I'd like to think in terms of packaging one or two decent prospects plus Jeffers, to try for someone like those who the Twins FO values highly. But maybe that comes from me playing too much OOTP. 😁

Sharing the presumed chuckle with others who may not have majored in Interstellar Studies, via this link.

Seems to me he overlaps uncomfortably with Austin Martin. Both are 2B washouts at this point, corner outfield candidates (CF in emergency only), right-handed batters, putting up bad numbers this season against RHP. I'm not sure there is room on the roster for two on the short side of an outfield platoon. Neither one provides enough pop with the bat to be an asset at first base or DH, either.