This could be part of why lineup construction has very little correlation with scoring runs. 1. Your leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to lead off once per game. 2. If he hits a home run, your 2, 3, and 4 hitters are less likely to hit into a double play. 3. If he hits a home run, you've already got one on the board when your "big knockers" come up- a bird in the hand vs. two in the bush. 4. He gets more at-bats than anyone.