Hans Birkeland

Are in-game nuances the next big step in player development and evaluation? Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports I feel like baseball statistics are measured in half lives. Originally, the landscape of pitcher evaluation, for instance, started out so broad that we gave one pitcher per game credit for an entire win. Then we sliced that up into how many runs he gave up. Some guys were better at that metric but they didn’t pitch as long or as often, so we divided runs by innings pitched. That was fine but some guys who give up the same number of runs per nine innings seem a lot more susceptible to bad luck, so what if we cared about how many strikeouts a guy had? In fact, what if we had a stat that measured how good a pitcher was if you took luck completely out of it? Cool, but what about just having better pitches? What if we could measure effective velocity, horizontal and vertical break, and how the pitch path diverges from the expected path of a different pitch? And now we’re here. What the hell kind of halving can you do of Statcast data for pitches? You can’t. It’s over. Once hitters perfect using full VR bodysuits that can simulate facing a perfect sim of any pitcher, they’re done too. At some point, the margins of finding a competitive advantage in data become so small, that they just aren’t worth the effort, like we did with openers. I’ve advocated that the next market inefficiency in baseball was scouting player’s mental games, but it could also be found in evaluating a player not on his total performance, but in his ability in the different approaches he takes in game situations. A diversity in what a hitter or pitcher intends to do, sprinkled throughout a lineup, can make a team equal more than the sum of its parts. The most obvious example of this would be bunting. Many dinosaurs-turned-broadcasters lament the decline of the sacrifice bunt, or any bunt for that matter. Statistical models show that bunting is rarely, if ever, the prudent choice from a probability perspective. But some guys are better at it than others, and on a micro level that can be a huge advantage in a given game. What about the ability to hit the ball to a particular side of the field? Some guys can, and usually will do so with a man on second and no outs, in a game where one run may mean the difference. This wouldn’t seem like a huge thing, but imagine a team with thirteen guys that couldn’t control where they hit the ball, and another team where they all could. Who would be sweating more in the 10th inning with the Manfred-man in play? We talk a lot about pitchers who get strike one consistently, and we can measure that. But we can’t measure how a pitcher performs if, in his mind, he decides to challenge a hitter. We can’t measure if he is attempting to induce a ground ball, or a pop up (we can guess, though, as well as measuring the results). Unlike in pool, baseball does not require a shot to be called, so we have no way of knowing how well a pitch was executed toward a specific intention. How often do we see a pitcher throw a backup slider to a same-handed hitter only for them to swing through the pitch, because they anticipated the pitch not being so poorly thrown. And then there are the two-strike-approach hitters, who cut down their swing, sacrificing power for contact so as to avoid striking out. Would a team of those guys be better in the long run than a team of guys who only give their “A” swing on every pitch? My hypothesis, and it isn’t a controversial one, is that it is good to have a team with all sorts of different skillsets. While other teams are digging deeper into programming a pitcher’s arm with AI to always repeat perfect mechanics, a forward thinking front office could get a couple “gameplan guys” they could plug in to torment a particular pitcher. It's entirely possible a hitter could be at Mike Trout’s level as a hitter, roughly 75% better than average, and still be a liability in certain spots. Imagine the Angels in the bottom of the 10th inning with Trout at the plate. If we’re being honest, they might want a subpar hitter with good contact/bunting skills up in that situation. Because Trout will do what he’s done his entire career and look for a pitch to crush. But a line out to deep left field, for instance, would be a bad result in that situation, since the runner at second could not advance, and you only need one run. Whether Trout can bunt or not is irrelevant because that won’t be what he’s looking to do, because of some combination of ego and analytics. Hopefully the Twins are exploring this arena. I wrote about how important Jorge Polanco was to this lineup, and that follows the same vein of having some diversity of approach. Polanco can bunt, go the other way, steal a bag if he knows no one is expecting him to, and avoid striking out if the situation warrants it. Michael Taylor can bunt pretty well and that has proven impactful a handful of times already. Joe Ryan is pretty good pitching with a lead, and Caleb Thielbar is particularly effective when he enters in the middle of an inning. It cuts both ways, though. Jose Miranda has struggled to put the ball in the air; is that something he is conscious of? One advantage the Guardians have had in the past two seasons was a lineup chock-full of contact oriented hitters without the prestige or ego to use the same approach, especially in key situations. They didn’t execute all that well in their series against the Twins, all told, but the Twins certainly showed a lack of situational execution, and that made all the difference. View full article

Despite some late home runs that made it interesting and even briefly tied the game, the Twins fell to the Guardians due to a brutal stretch of infield defense and failing to build anything against rookie starter Logan Allen despite traffic on the base paths. Image courtesy of © David Richard / USA Today Box Score: Sonny Gray: 5 IP 4 H 3 ER 3 BB 6 SO (90 Pitches, 55 Strikes, 61%) Home Runs: Kepler (5), Correa (5) Bottom 3 WPA: Jorge Alcalá (-0.121), Byron Buxton (-0.121), Sonny Gray (-0.115) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Sonny Gray struggles with control but holds it together despite his defense. Coming off one of the finest months of his career, Gray was in command at the start, spotting his curveball, fastball, and two-seamer where he wanted and generally staying ahead of hitters. However, he completely lost control in the fourth inning, walking the unwalkable (and worst number two hitter in baseball) Amed Rosario and falling behind Jose Ramirez 3-0. Gray got Ramirez to hit a grounder, but Donovan Solano booted it, allowing Rosario to reach third. Josh Naylor then grounded to Miranda, who booted his third ball of the game, fell over, and allowed Ramirez to move up to third. Fighting his mechanics, Gray then allowed an RBI single to Josh Bell and walked Gabriel Arias and Myles Straw to force in another. How he retained his composure to finish the inning and pitch a scoreless fifth is a minor miracle. Logan T. Allen keeps Twins off balance, minimizes damage Gray’s counterpart consistently worked at a blistering pace with his fastball on the outside corner, getting a lot of weak contact early in counts. He allowed some traffic on the basepaths but made good pitches when he had to, throwing his fastball, cutter/sweeper, and change-up for strikes. If not for one Max Kepler, he likely would have worked six scoreless innings and left with a three-run lead. More Kepler Magic With the Twins lineup in a deep lull against Allen, Max Kepler followed an excuse-me single by Miranda by launching yet another home run, making the score 3-2 and justifying being in the lineup against a lefty. Baldelli tossed, Bremer takes his side Baldelli disputed the play, believing Ramirez was outside the base path as he averted Miranda’s tag. Announcer Dick Bremer voiced his support of Baldelli, despite it not being a reviewable call. Umpires usually don’t make that call for more egregious baserunning ventures. In this writer’s opinion, the argument was a hollow excuse for the fourth fielding mistake in two innings for the increasingly error-prone Miranda and Solano. If this trend continues, Willi Castro has to feel more secure in his status on the active roster, even as Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis get closer to returning to the team. Alcalá returns and looks back to form...mostly Jorge Alcalá returned from his brief banishment to Triple-A, pitching a scoreless sixth inning with two strikeouts. He showed improved command, throwing strikes with his slider and change-up. He got the first two outs of the seventh with little issue but tried to sneak a get-me-over slider by the homerless Steven Kwan, who deposited the pitch 402 feet to give Cleveland back the lead. What’s Next: Joe Ryan (5-0, 2.37 ERA) goes up against Cal Quantrill (1-2, 4.73 ERA) as the Twins go for a series win in Cleveland. Postgame Interviews: Bullpen Usage Chart: MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT López 0 15 0 16 10 0 41 Stewart 0 24 0 16 0 0 40 Pagán 0 0 18 20 0 0 38 Morán 0 0 9 15 0 12 36 Durán 0 0 0 16 18 0 34 Alcala 0 0 0 0 0 29 29 Jax 0 9 15 0 0 0 24 Rodriguez 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

The question of who goes down is real tricky. Because yes you want Farmer and Solano over Gordon but what about next year? DFA'ing a guy with upside and five years of control is real dumb. I think if you can't rotate phantom (or real) injuries you cut Solano and eat his 2M. Or MAYBE we run out a 12 man pitching staff for a while.

I think you go with the ol' fashioned phantom IL stint just to give a guy a rest. Maybe Taylor with his back?

I'm sure all sorts of variables are at play, mental and physical, but if Gallo is neutral in both positions and Kepler is great in right and neutral in center you maximize the defense with Gallo in center. Or maybe they could do some sort of rotation,

There isn't a perfect solution, but his potential is worth shuffling some players around. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports It sucks for everyone when prospects get called up late. They hit free agency in their thirties when in a lot of cases, their performance is already starting to diminish. They get paid less, and there is also less to enjoy in the fan experience when all you see of a guy’s peak career is his late twenties. Michael Cuddyer is a good example, as he did not become a full-time player until his age-27 season and his defense was atrocious by the time he hit free agency. You especially want to give a young player runway at a young age if they have any chance to be a transcendent talent, and Alex Kirilloff’s hitting ability has been described as such. That said, he is 25 and the sheen over him owes a lot to what is unknown about him. Trevor Larnach is a good counterpoint. He’s generally been playing well but we’ve seen the ups and downs of what he can do as a hitter. Pitchers have increasingly attacked him with offspeed and breaking pitches and he has had to make adjustments (though hadn’t he made that adjustment at the start of 2022?). The main point is, if Larnach can hit breaking stuff he will be a good to great hitter in the big leagues. For Kirilloff, we don’t even know what adjustments he will have to make to reach his uncertain, but probably high, ceiling. Does anyone remember how pitchers attack him? What bad hitting habits does he fall into when he’s healthy? Is he more of a .270/.310/.450 hitter due to an overly aggressive hitting approach? We have no idea. We have to find out. It’s too far into his career. As soon as he gets through a couple back-to-backs in Triple A, get him up here and get him in the lineup five times a week. That will require some lineup and defensive shuffling. With Byron Buxton continuing to require the DH slot, that means Joey Gallo needs to play center field. This isn’t conventional, and would result in worse defense in center, at least until Buxton returns to center field. It also would mean fewer at-bats, at least against righties, for Michael A. Taylor, who has been somewhat of a spark plug at the bottom of the lineup while contributing excellent center field defense. But Gallo hasn’t rated badly in center field in his career (zero outs above average, or OAA, in 58 career games), and Larnach deserves to continue his chance to prove himself. There are some strong opinions about what the Twins should do with their other starting outfielder, but cutting bait with Max Kepler right now would be incredibly unwise, for a couple reasons. One, Kepler is kind of hitting, especially since returning from his IL stint earlier in the month. His slugging percentage is up to .483 on the year after a two-hit showing in Saturday’s loss to the Royals. Second, the decline in defense going from Kepler to Gallo isn’t major, but it is significant. Kepler is one of the smoothest right fielders in Twins history, while Gallo is just really good. In terms of OAA, Kepler has been nineteen runs above average the past two years, while Gallo has been fairly neutral, albeit with a better throwing arm. Third, Kepler was kind of hitting last year before his toe injury. His line on June 1st was .260/.365/.440, and while it dipped before the injury occurred, his OPS was still above league average before he went on to post a .466 OPS while playing through a broken toe in August and September. If he’s a league-average hitter, that’s a three WAR player when you factor in his defense. With his club option for 2024, Kepler is basically under contract for two years, 18.5M. That is a tremendously valuable player, if even relatively healthy. The downside to letting Kepler keep starting in right field against righties would be if he gets hurt or falls off even further in performance. But if either of those things happen, the solution would be to install Taylor or Buxton back in center, and move Gallo to right. Problem solved. A much worse scenario would be to give up on Kepler and then see Kirilloff get hurt or not perform, resulting in a lot more Donovan Solano at first base. So let’s make it happen. Put Gallo in the middle of the field. It would be unfortunate for Michael A. Taylor, and a few more balls might fall in the gaps, but if Kepler, Gallo, and Larnach are going to remain among your top five or six hitters, you need to find a way to keep them in the lineup against righties. Moving Gallo to center also allows the team to gather the data they need to determine what Kirilloff (and Larnach) are going to be for them in this competitive window. Are they foundational pieces, platoon guys or trade bait? Of course injuries could solve every roster crunch the Twins face and then some. But while it's important to build depth in case of injury, it's also important to find out what kind of players you have. Fortunately for the Twins, the Texas Rangers found out Gallo could play center while trying to work in at-bats for Willie Calhoun and Nomar Mazara in 2019. Hopefully, every one of the Twins' young hitters end up with better careers than those one-tool journeymen, but there’s only one way to find out, and it could turn this team into an offensive juggernaut. View full article

A rare bout of wildness from Jhoan Duran costs the Twins a game they led in the eighth as Royals steal game three from the Twins, ending their nine game losing streak at Target Field. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Box Score SP: Bailey Ober 5.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 6 SO (88 pitches, 55 strikes 62.5%) Home Runs: Buxton (6) Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-0.311), Trevor Larnach (-.230), Joey Gallo and Jorge López (-0.180) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): Bailey Ober makes another solid cold weather start Called up to replace the injured Kenta Maeda, Ober started off the game by tying Bobby Witt Jr. up with a high-and-tight fastball, striking out in comical fashion. Not to be outdone, Sal Perez went down swinging on a slider two feet outside to finish the inning. Throughout the outing, his changeup was floating outside of the zone, or hanging in the top portion of the strike zone, leading to some hard contact from left handed batters. That eventually hurt him in the fifth when he gave up a hard single to Nicky Lopez for the Royal’s first run. He was lifted after a two-out single to another lefty, Nick Pratto in the fifth. The Royals are the worst offense in the league by runs scored, so it will be telling to see how Ober fares against a collection of better lefties. Max Kepler continues to show why he should be a part of the team’s plans Ignoring the pleas of one Aaron Gleeman, the Twins have held on to Max Kepler despite their plethora of promising left-handed corner bats. Kepler’s OPS is now solidly over .800 after adding two hits, a hit-by-pitch and a walk today, while continuing to play excellent defense in right field. If he remains healthy, a three WAR season seems quite attainable which suddenly makes his 8.5M salary look positively valuable. Let us not forget Kepler was a league average hitter in 2022 before attempting to play through a broken toe that tanked his season numbers, a fact conveniently forgotten by.. everyone? Royals’ starter Brad Keller faces his control demons, sort of wins Coming into play with a solid-looking 3.96 ERA, Keller quickly showed why his walk rate is over seventeen percent, walking Max Kepler to lead off the game. Kepler was erased on a Carlos Correa double play, though, and Keller began his hi-wire act from there, stranding runners in scoring position in the second and third before starting to unravel in the fourth when he walked two and unleashed a wild pitch that allowed Buxton to score the game’s first run. He ended up walking five on the night in addition to five hits and the aforementioned wild pitch, channeling a little Sam Deduno magic to avoid giving up any significant damage. Jorge Polanco stays hot but confusion leads to baserunning blunder Ahead in the count to the wild Keller, Polanco ripped a 3-1 fastball deep to the right field corner, where the ball landed on top of the wall’s edge, inconceivably bouncing back into play where a trotting Polanco was tagged out at second base. He then ripped a line drive (106.6 MPH) to right field with men on in the fifth, only for the suddenly ascendant Nick Pratto to make a great diving catch. Decision to have Jorge López face Salvador Perez in the eighth backfires Griffin Jax had thrown 15 pitches in the eighth inning, giving up just a walk to Bobby Witt Jr. Rocco Baldelli came and got him anyway, bringing in Jorge López to face noted Twin-killer Salvador Perez. After getting ahead 0-2 with high fastballs, López threw another high fastball that Perez got on top of, lining a single to center to tie the game. It is fair to question whether Jax may have been a better matchup given his elite slider paired with the fact that Perez got a hit off of López the night before. Buxton draws another walk, remains above league-average in walk rate Drawing his tenth walk in his 25th game would have been a preposterous stat for Buxton just a few years ago. Although he was known to have good strike zone control as a prospect, his actual walk rates were abysmal the first few years of his career, and plummeted to 1.5% during the 2020 season that also represented his power breakout. He is now over nine percent after walking 8.9% of the time last year (league average is 8.8%). Buxton’s timing still seems a little off this year despite his big home run in today’s game, but if he has added a modicum of selectivity to his game that should put the league on notice. What’s Next MLB ERA leader Sonny Gray (3-0, 0.62 ERA) wraps up the series facing Royals “ace” Brady Singer (2-2, 6.67 ERA) with the Twins hoping to avoid what would be a disappointing split with the bottom-feeding Royals. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Chart TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Durán 15 0 15 0 25 55 Thielbar 0 0 0 25 22 47 J López 10 0 0 20 16 46 Jax 0 0 0 16 15 31 Morán 0 0 29 0 0 29 Stewart 0 0 28 0 0 28 Pagán 0 10 0 0 0 10 Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

Let's list the reasons that make him so essential to this lineup right now. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Coming off of a brutal series loss to the lowly Washington Nationals, the Twins are in an odd predicament. They are pitching quite well, and were delivered two more excellent outings by Tyler Mahle and Bailey Ober in the Nats series. But they can’t hit themselves out of a paper bag, scoring two, four, and three runs against a team with nothing to play for. I mean, Patrick Corbin is still making starts for them, and even he didn’t look bad against the Twins’ hitters. They’re in need of a spark, and despite little fanfare, they got one in the return of Jorge Polanco, who had been sidelined by a knee injury he sustained last August. That is arguable based on Polanco’s 2022 results. He had a much lower batting average than usual at .236, and his defensive metrics weren’t great, either. He also had the highest strikeout percentage of his career, going down on strikes 21.4% of the time. That may have been part of a shift in approach, as he also walked a career high 14.4% of the time, while his isolated power numbers were in line with his career totals at 17.1%. So what’s so great about that? For starters, striking out 21.4% of the time is still better than league average, while a walk rate of 14.4% is elite. Two things the Twins are struggling with offensively are striking out way too much and hardly drawing any walks, ranking 24th in walks drawn, with the fifth most strikeouts in baseball. Maybe Polanco won’t be a savior for this lineup, but in terms of what he provides and what the team has been lacking, he is a perfect fit. On Sunday he proved that, going 3-4 with a game-tying home run and an opposite field single to score the team’s final run. All of this came from the right side of the plate, which has historically been his weaker side. His defense has been okay in the early going, with a bobble on a double-play ball and a ground ball under his glove on Saturday showing he still has rust to shake off. With Polanco, his performance goes as his health does. If he tries to play through something, both his power and his defense suffer, as evidenced last year when he fought through back and knee issues during the second half. Another guy who frequently tries to play through maladies that shouldn’t is Trevor Larnach, who was open about that tendency to the detriment of both his performance and his health. Much was made about how this year he made a concerted effort to tell the training staff what he was dealing with early. Hopefully Polanco is following that same gameplan, with his knee setback in spring training serving as a positive example. While the team’s public relations insisted there was no setback well into March, Polanco openly admitted there was. This choice, intentional or not, provided transparency to a fanbase that might have wondered why a player who had eight months to recover from an injury that didn’t require surgery, needed just a few extra weeks to prepare for the season without any setbacks. Now Polanco looks like he’s running well, at least from the eye test of seeing him run out ground balls. The knee may still be an underlying issue for him, and we have no way of knowing otherwise. But the early returns suggest the extra time in spring training and on his rehab assignment did him some good. As he has spent the better part of four seasons banged up to some degree, it is encouraging to see a player so determined to play through anything, take his time ramping up for the season and start contributing to the lineup right out of the gate. The other aspect of Polanco that makes him so valuable is his role in the Twins clubhouse. He is generally quiet and non-effusive, but nonetheless commands the respect of his teammates. He’s earned that by being the longest tenured Twin while having a warrior’s reputation on the field. He is without question one of the most important leaders on the team, and certainly a leader of the Spanish-speaking contingent, especially with the departures of Nelson Cruz, Jose Berrios, Luis Arraez, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela in recent years. That’s hard to quantify and even harder to confirm, but cohesive teams generally need one or more leaders who speak Spanish and one or more who speak English. The Twins are well represented in this regard with, in addition to Polanco, the hard-nosed and reserved Byron Buxton and the outspoken, bi-lingual Carlos Correa. Maybe having that trio in place will unlock some of the offense beyond what Polanco provides individually. Or maybe not. Clubhouse leadership can be over-emphasized, and perhaps I am guilty of falling into that trap. You can have the greatest clubhouse chemistry in the world but if all that means is you can score three runs off Patrick Corbin, maybe you’re lacking elsewhere. But leadership can also be under-emphasized, with our friends the Chicago White Sox serving as a good example. With a great lineup, great starters and a pretty good bullpen, why have they been so thoroughly mediocre the past thirteen months? Does Lance Lynn’s crotch-grabbing testosterone show wear thin when it comes with a Emilio Pagán-esque 1.6 HR/9? Was Jose Abreu holding that team together this whole time? How difficult has it been working with known jerk, distraction-heavy and below-average pitcher Mike Clevinger? Definitive answers won’t be available, but ask any current Twin about Polanco’s impact, and they will gush about his preparedness, seriousness, and the way he can impact the game in so many ways, whether by popping a homer from both sides of the plate, stealing a base, or making a tough throw from second base that appears to come from underneath his feet. His teammates believe in him, and as George Costanza once said, “It’s not a lie, if you believe it.” He isn’t perfect, and that is confirmed both by his 2018 PED suspension and his cursed flip to Luis Arraez in the 2020 playoffs. But with Arraez now gone, name me one Twin who you would rather have up with the game on the line. It won’t be the boom-or-bust Byron Buxton, or the jumpy double-play machine Jose Miranda. It could be Correa, but definitely not in April. It isn’t Trevor Larnach, who the book is out on regarding his ability to hit offspeed. Donovan Solano can really hit, but he isn’t selective. Joey Gallo has been good, but there’s also a 40% chance his at-bat ends in a strikeout. The answer is Polanco, the gold standard in reliability, clutch genetics, heart and soul. His injury issues may be chronic, he’s pushing 30, and he only has two team option years left on his contract, so his time in Minnesota may be drawing near. Let’s appreciate him while we can. View full article

The Twins came out flat against a talent-deprived Washington offense, allowing fourteen, mostly soft, hits and never truly getting back in the game. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Box Score SP: Pablo Lopez: 4 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 83 pitches (60 strikes, 37 strikes 72.2%) Home Runs: Buxton (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Lopez (-0.313), Jorge Polanco (-0.096), Max Kepler (-0.73) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs): Pablo López falls victim to the Washington Piranhas The first inning got off to an auspicious start, as López got ahead of the leadoff hitter 0-2 before running an inside fastball too far inside for a hit-by-pitch. The next hitter doubled which may have been the only real mistake López made in the inning. Joey Meneses then hit a grounder that Jose Miranda ranged far to his left but made an off balance throw to first, failing to record an out, although the runner at third would have scored regardless. A walk followed, then two dominating strikeouts. Side Note: The game time temperature at Target Field today was 35 degrees. Pablo Lopez's previous coldest first-pitch temperature was 56 degrees in Cleveland in 2019. López then threw one of his better sweepers that Christian Vázquez couldn’t handle, resulting in a wild pitch and a 2-0 deficit. López had good stuff and decent command, spotting his fastball up in the zone and his changeup below the zone. He did seem to make an adjustment following the lone walk, getting a visit from Pete Maki and challenging the National’s crop of underwhelming hitters. It did seem as though championship-winning manager Davey Martinez had the Nats ready to play, despite the dearth of talent on his roster. They dinked and dunked on a pitcher they were familiar with from López’s days in the NL East, selling out for contact and building a 4-0 lead by the second inning despite only one hard hit ball. The “death by a thousand paper cuts” attack continued in the fourth, with Victor Robles doubling off Michael A. Taylor’s glove and taking third because he assumed Taylor would struggle to make a good throw back to the infield. He was correct, and made that same assumption on a short fly ball to Taylor in the next at-bat, scoring the Nat’s fifth run. It begs the question of whether a more competent offense trying to get off more “A” swings may have been, ironically, easier to pitch to given Saturday’s weather. Lopez was removed after 83 pitches in what had to be one of the more frustrating outings of his career. Chad Kuhl doesn’t lose his cool, or the game Kuhl isn’t devoid of ability, as his complete game shutout against the Dodgers at Coors Field last summer may indicate. He threw plenty of sliders that the Twins didn’t do much damage off of, but overall lacked command, walking four and unleashing a wild pitch. He was worked hard and was not efficient, throwing 96 pitches while failing to complete four innings. The Nationals’ bullpen kept the lead intact, as Mason Thompson, Hobie Harris, Carl Edwards Jr. and Anthony Banda combined to allow just three additional runs over five and a third innings. Buxton continues to improve Byron Buxton was in an extended strikeout stretch following his collision at second base in the White Sox series. Things have turned around a bit since then, with Buxton entering the game not striking out in 14 straight plate appearances. Making a dedicated effort to avoid striking out, Byron Buxton continues to look better and better, drawing a walk in the first and crushing an inside fastball for a home run in the third. He just missed a pitch with two men on in the fourth, flying out to center to end the inning. Woods Richardson makes his 2023 debut Simeon Woods Richardson, called up to provide length after the Boston series depleted the back end of the bullpen, was sharp, hitting 93 MPH on his fastball and pairing it with an effective change-up. The questions with SWR have been, can he be effective in the lower 90’s after sitting in the mid-90’s with the fastball earlier in his minor league career, and is his changeup a plus pitch or just an average offering. His stuff looked good against the Nationals, but its hard to draw any definitive conclusions facing a team whose best hitter, Jeimer Candelario, was released by the Tigers over the offseason. The Nat’s highest upside hitter, CJ Abrams, delivered the big blow, waiting on a changeup down and in and golfing it for a three-run home run to put the game away in the seventh. Trying to stretch his outing out and complete the game, SWR was clearly gassed in the ninth, losing his command and allowing some hard contact, resulting in giving up the last two runs of the game. Joey Gallo hitting second Imagine this scenario playing out two months ago. No one who writes about the Twins was especially keen on the Gallo signing, but to Gallo’s and hitting coach David Popkins’ credit, he looks like the only force in the Twins lineup. Health may be a factor, as Gallo was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019 when he fractured his wrist, hitting for a .253 batting average and .986 OPS while playing the majority of his games in center-field. He followed with a terrible 2020 season, a wildly inconsistent 2021, and a brutal 2022 where he hit .160. Maybe the wrist injury changed his mechanics and Popkins helped him restore his 2019 form, or maybe Gallo is simply getting fat off of mediocre pitching thus far in 2023. Either way, his insertion into the two-hole is more than justified given the underperformance from all the other Twins hitters. He didn’t have his best day, going 0-4 with two strikeouts. Larnach averages 97.1 exit velocity against offspeed Trevor Larnach, much maligned for his inability to hit breaking/offspeed pitches, did quite well against them today, not recording a strikeout and posting exit velocities of 98.1 MPH against a Chad Kuhl slider in the second, 97.6 MPH against a Kuhl slider in the fourth, and hitting a two RBI single in the seventh at 95.3 MPH against a Hobie Harris split-changeup. Adjustments have been made, but it will be interesting to see if those hold against stiffer competition. What’s Next Bailey Ober will make his first start for the Twins this season on Sunday as the Twins try to prevent what would be an embarrassing home sweep against the Nationals. Ober will face off against Patrick Corbin (1-2, 6.30 ERA) whose contract pays him $24.4M this year and $35.4M next year. He has specialized in waking up dormant offenses the past few years, so we’ll see what the Twins can do. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Chart TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Woods Richardson 0 0 0 0 97 97 Moran 26 0 44 0 0 70 Jax 26 0 0 31 0 57 Headrick 0 47 0 0 3 50 Pagan 0 0 42 0 0 42 Thielbar 17 0 0 12 0 29 López 10 0 0 16 0 26 Durán 19 0 0 0 0 19 View full article

Oh dear, maybe you took too MANY salt tablets!

The Twins are leaving New York City with a 10-6 record and bad taste in their mouths after dropping the last two of what began as a promising series against their arch-rivals. They scored only one run combined on Saturday and Sunday, and never truly felt like they were a threat to win either game. So why on earth would I pen anything as ridiculous as the title of this story? Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports First of all, splitting a series at Yankee stadium has to be seen as a W for any American League team that operates in a city with normal zoning laws. Factor in the Twins .250 win percentage against the Yankees in the past quarter decade and you have yourself something resembling a miracle. The Twins’ unique struggles against the Yankees have been well documented, a tragic comedy for the East Coast to enjoy as they prepare to face “real teams” like the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Observe this pitious tweet from Jon Heyman last September: The Minnesota sports media market isn’t the poster child market for “acting like you’ve been there before.” Maybe that’s part of their issue against the Yankees and in the playoffs. I’ve had a few theories myself about those struggles, but the one I’ve settled on is that the Twins have historically forced a certain aesthetic involving hitting singles, going the other way, and pitching to contact. For decades starting in the 80s under Tom Kelly, they adhered to this philosophy, but as time went on it became less a commitment to “fundamentals” and more an excuse to spend less on payroll. We called it “The Twins Way™,” and it sucked. However, it can and has worked in the AL Central, where being above-average can win you a division; the Guardians proved that last year. Teams like the Yankees, however, who will always supplement their roster with in-their-prime free agents and big-ticket trade acquisitions, can exploit this. Accustomed to pitching against lineups that run eight to nine deep in the AL East, they are happy to pitch around the one or two stars the Twins employ and attack the Jason Tyners and Mark Contrerases of the world. Meanwhile, Twins pitchers, used to throwing in the zone and letting Detroit Tigers hitters get themselves out, are vexed when every pitch means something and just throwing strikes isn’t good enough. The other teams in the AL Central had various reasons for not experiencing the same fate against New York, but they mainly involve developing the kind of pitching (Mark Buehrle, Corey Kluber, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Shane Bieber, Chris Sale) that the Twins just haven’t (outside of one exception we all know and love): © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Hey. Chicago and Detroit have also spent significant money when their teams are in contention, while Cleveland has had the smartest front office in the division for decades. As for the Royals, they haven’t been great against the Yankees, either, but not remarkably so. That didn’t use to be the case, as they were getting bounced in the ALCS by New York three straight years in the late 70s, before sweeping New York in the 1980 ALCS. Confidence and lack thereof, is a thing, and it stacks when things don’t go well. In other words, there is a fine line between the psychological feeling of playing with house money, and feeling like “here we go again” as soon as anything goes wrong. All the Royals had to do, to go from the Yankees owning them, to just losing an appropriate amount owing to actually existing talent disparities, was win that one playoff series. Or maybe it was just one home run: Could it be that Carlos Correa’s double in the eighth on Friday will have the same effect? Maybe, but the Yankees are a good team, and will continue to be a good team. Rebuilds are unnecessary for them given their resources, so over time they will likely maintain winning records against most teams. The only other team in the American League to operate that way, the Red Sox, also have a strong record against the Twins the past few decades. The difference between winning 45% of the time against these big-spending teams, and 25% of the time, is simply turning the tables a bit, getting lucky, or making a statement. Put the pressure on them, and don’t fall into narratives. The Yankees play in a high pressure media market and when things go south, the heat gets turned up quickly. Heck they booed their beloved Aaron Judge in the playoffs last year as he delivered his worst nine-game stretch of the season. They have also built rosters pretty shoddily since their last World Series appearance and win in 2009, often being forced into portioning huge amounts of their payroll or prospect capital into players they “have to” keep, or that they “have to” trade for. Think of 31 year-old Judge signing for nine years and trading real prospects for the black hole that has become Frankie Montas. Carlos Rodon already feels like an albatross, similar to Jacoby Ellsbury. That leads to less spending elsewhere, resulting in roster spots for folks like Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and Aaron Hicks. The first two could have been signed by any team, and Hicks might be out of baseball if not for that unfortunate extension he signed five years ago. Last year the Twins were still less than serious, particularly after Chris Paddack and Bailey Ober went down with injuries. Relying on Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to provide stability to a rotation was an act of an unserious team, the sort of team that could get lucky and win the AL Central, only to get exposed in the playoffs, or to act as a willing victim for a Yankees team that loves to beat up on overmatched/over-the-hill pitching. Without the avalanche of injuries, it could have been different, and we saw signs that a seriousness was forming. Now, with the current hitting prospects they have in the upper minors, an elite closer, two lineup superstars, and their deepest, if not best, rotation since 1991, this Twins team is for real. Plus, it has the heliumized prospect capital (David Festa, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez) to make a huge move if needed at the deadline. If Pablo Lopez has truly taken his game to the next level, their ceiling goes even higher. That has been evident in this series, regardless of the Twins’ lack of hitting in the last two games. The Yankees averaged 3.25 runs per game; that’s beatable for a lineup that expects a functional Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco to return shortly. Now, winning the first game in this series in lopsided fashion was pretty fluky. Currently injured center-fielder Harrison Bader may have caught a few of the Twins doubles and ended the first inning before it spiraled, and the Yankees’ rookie starter was throwing high sinkers right into the Twins’ swing planes. He was also due for a clunker. The second game was more significant. The Yankees thought they had the game won, put in their “best” reliever and saw him give it up in the eighth. Yankees fans were already worried about Clay Holmes and his 5.81 ERA since last summer, and the Twins validated those concerns. This was also the game the Twins were punting; fill-in Louis Varland was starting against All-Star Nestor Cortes Jr. That’s how you end a narrative in baseball. Yankees fans were horrified on Sunday that if Gerrit Cole gave up a baserunner in the ninth, that Holmes would be brought in with the tying run on. Putting the fear on the other side is new. I’m not saying the Twins are a better team, or that the second two games of the series weren’t convincing wins for New York. As currently constructed, the Yankees have serious flaws in their lineup and pitching depth, but they’ll get healthier in their rotation, trade for a bat at the deadline, and almost certainly make the playoffs. They’ll be a real team come August. Real teams don’t always win playoff series, or even make the playoffs in some instances. There is a good chance one of the Rays, Blue Jays, Mariners or Yankees are on the outside looking in come October, despite the wealth of talent on their teams, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t good. It is without question that they each pose a real test to other good teams and stand a chance to win almost any game they play. Not only can the Twins now say the same, but they know when the Yankees come to town next week, nothing is assured. That may not end this curse, streak, or whatever you call it, but it’s certainly an improvement. View full article

The Twins winning streak came to an end on Saturday in New York. So did the Twins streak of starters completing five innings. And, there was plenty of controversy, and a Baldelli ejection to boot. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz, USA Today Box Score SP: Tyler Mahle: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 90 pitches, 53 strikes (58.9%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (-0.70), Eduoard Julien (-0.68) Jorge Alcalá (-0.37) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs): Can the Twins run of quality starting pitching continue? Tyler Mahle took the mound for the Twins and his stuff was good throughout his start, generating numerous swings and misses on his split changeup and fourteen whiffs total. His control was a little off however, missing with his fastball in the zone. His error in the second, misplaying a dribbler that allowed Franchy Cordero to reach, put a runner on base for Kyle Higashioka who pulverized an elevated fastball to put the Twins behind two zero. He continued to fall behind hitters and give up hard contact and after giving up a blistered double to Aaron Judge, it became apparent he would be the first Twins starter to fall short of completing five innings this year. It was a good run. Domingo German dominant, but suspicious Thought to represent the soft underbelly of the Yankees pitching staff along with Clarke Schmidt, German instead was sharp with his command, throwing riding fastballs up in the zone and pairing it with a sharp slider and changeup. He was perfect the first time through the order, striking out six. This aroused at least some suspicion from the umpires, who conferred before the start of the fourth regarding some sticky stuff on German's glove. German was allowed to stay after removing a substance, prompting Rocco Baldelli to protest and eventually be ejected from the game. Umpire James Hoye could be seen telling German, who previously was suspended for violating the league's domestic abuse policy, "I told you to wipe it off!" The league was supposed to be cracking down harder on the foreign substance issue this year, following the crackdown mid-2021 and then a gradual relaxation following. Hoye’s exclamation would seem to indicate that German was told to remove a substance but did not comply. His spin rate decreased significantly afterward. Conspiratorial baseball fans will note the Yankees being implicated for sign stealing during the Astros investigation, as well as sample balls from Yankees games being shown to have more bounce to them during the 2022 season, as compared to sample balls from other games. Boom or bust offense continues Twins hitters swung over German’s changeup and underneath his fastball all day. The hitters that chose to be aggressive were rolling over pitches and grounding out quickly, while the hitters that tried to work the count fell behind and let German dictate the at-bat. Whether that was due to some unlawful pitching aid or not, the Twins hitters were not in command of the game. Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda doubled in the seventh for the Twins’ first run, but Max Kepler grounded into an inning-ending double-play to end the threat. Morán shows improvement Taking over for Mahle in the fifth, Jovani Morán inherited runners on the corners and only one out. He induced a groundout to Cabrera, which Jose Miranda made a nice play on, nailing LeMahieu trying to score. Morán then got Cordero to tap out to end the threat. He then had a one two three sixth inning, although his control was wobbly, getting a few charitable strike three calls from the home plate umpire. Jorge Alcalá was a different story, however, following Morán for the seventh and hitting LeMahieu, walking Judge and allowing a sharp double on a middle-middle slider to Giancarlo Stanton which plated two more runs. He did settle down in his next inning outside of an Anthony Volpe single (and two stolen bases). What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.35 ERA) will look to continue his run of dominance, going up against Gerrit Cole (3-0, 1.40 ERA) in the series finale. Cole was very effective against the Twins last September, but they did pop five home runs against him at Target field last June. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Chart TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Alcalá 0 15 0 0 44 59 Durán 24 15 0 10 0 49 López 0 12 0 15 0 27 Morán 0 0 0 0 26 26 Sands 0 0 23 0 0 23 Jax 8 12 0 0 0 20 Pagán 0 0 0 12 0 12 Thielbar 4 0 0 0 0 4 View full article

The Twins got a strong start, and the bullpen came through as the Twins outslugged the defending champions on Saturday afternoon at Target Field. On Sunday, they'll look for the sweep. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The bats come alive and the pitching holds it together an impressive win over the Astros. Box Score: SP: Joe Ryan: 6 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10K (81 pitches, 53 strikes, 65.4%) Home Runs: Kyle Farmer (1), Byron Buxton (1) Top 3 WPA: Farmer (.222), Christian Vázquez (.176), Griffin Jax (.116) Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs): Joe Ryan's new secondary pitches vs. Defending Champs Coming off of an impressive six-inning, one-run start in Kansas City, Joe Ryan started out where he left off, relying heavily on his fastball the first time through the lineup, sitting 93-94 MPH and in good locations. After the Twins scored four runs in the second, Ryan started to lose a little velocity on his fastball and couldn’t throw his secondary pitches for strikes. After a long flyout by Jake Meyers to start the third, Ryan appeared to windmill his right arm before giving up sharp singles to Martin Maldonado and Chas McCormick. Alex Bregman spit on several non-competitive offspeed pitches before drawing a walk, and Yordan Alvarez teed off on the first fastball he saw, a 91 MPH fastball in the heart of the plate, leaving the yard at an absurd 116 MPH, tying the game at four. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== The next inning was a struggle, as well, but a struggling Houston lineup bailed him out. Jeremy Pena took five straight offspeed pitches and then struck out looking on an 89 MPH fastball below the zone. David Hensley then struck out on a better-looking 92 MPH fastball at the top of the zone, but Meyers then ripped a 104 MPH lineout to Gordon in left. Ryan’s velocity and command seemed to return after that, and he was able to throw his offspeed, particularly his split-change, for strike one. He finished with ten strikeouts and besides the home run to Alvarez, didn’t give up an inordinate amount of damage. Twin lefty mashers come through against right-handed Houston pitchers With Max Kepler and Joey Gallo unavailable due to injury, that meant starting assignments for Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer. Both were part of the initial rally against Garcia, with Farmer obliterating a change-up fading right into his swing path for a three-run home run. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Solano later walked against Garcia, and Farmer started the Twins sixth inning rally with an opposite-field double off of Seth Martinez. With Wallner now in the fold, it will be interesting to note if he sees much action with Solano and Farmer continuing to swing hot bats. Abreu strikes out on pitch clock violation The second inning started in odd fashion, with veteran Jose Abreu striking out due to a pitch clock violation. He didn’t argue the call, but the Houston bench did get warned for chirping in the sixth inning. For good measure, Ryan struck out Abreu in legitimate fashion twice more in his outing, saving his best-located fastballs for the long-time White Sox star. Buxton finally gets his home run After being stifled by some careful and effective pitching by Houston pitchers in tandem with Martin Maldonado, Buxton got a middle-middle fastball in the eighth and did not miss it, turning a nail-biter into a comfortable win against a tough team. Garcia struggles in second start with new windup Luis Garcia, whose elaborate windup was deemed illegal with MLB’s new rules, had an up-and-down outing against the Twins. After an uneventful first inning, he started giving up hard contact to the middle of the Twins lineup in the second. Nick Gordon and Donovan Solano ripped singles on cutters up in the zone, and Kyle Farmer launched a change-up for his big home run. After a Christian Vázquez walk, Michael A. Taylor and Buxton nearly hit home runs, Correa doubled and Larnach drove a cutter up the gut for a four-nothing lead. The Twins then got the first two men on in the 3rd, leading to the Astros bullpen getting warm, but from then it appeared that Martin Maldonado changed the game plan and focused on fastballs up and in to the Twins righties to pair with cutters and sliders away. Buxton in particular seemed to be looking for pitches out over the plate and struck out on hard stuff up and in. But the damage was done by that point and Garcia was done after four innings. Christian Vázquez with two big hits against his former team After looking lost at the plate during Friday’s home opener, Vázquez delivered run-scoring singles to left in the sixth and eighth innings, giving the Twins bullpen a lead they would not relinquish. Twins bullpen impresses As the bullpen hierarchy comes into clearer focus, it was Jorge López again getting the seventh inning, with Griffin Jax taking the eighth inning assignment. López was dominant in his frame, dotting the corners with hard stuff and striking out the side. Facing the 9-1-2 portion of Houston’s lineup, Jax took care of business, striking out Maldonado and Bregman on sliders to complete a perfect inning. Jovani Moran had some struggles in the ninth, including giving up a two-run home run for the second straight appearance. However, Jhoan Duran came on and needed just three pitches to end the game with a strikeout. TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Morán 15 0 0 0 20 35 Jax 0 9 0 13 12 34 Pagán 26 0 0 0 0 26 López 0 0 0 8 14 22 Durán 0 0 0 19 3 22 Thielbar 0 13 0 0 0 13 Sands 0 0 0 0 0 0 Alcalá 0 0 0 0 0 0 What’s Next: Tyler Mahle will make his second start of the year, facing the talented Hunter Brown as the series with the Astros wraps up. Postgame Interviews View full article

Let's look at the scenarios. Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports After a four-and-two start to the season, the Twins employ two lefty-swinging outfielders off to encouraging starts in Trevor Larnach and Joey Gallo. Nick Gordon and Max Kepler have had tougher starts and Kepler is already questionable to play with knee tendinitis. Meanwhile, the team has presumed lineup regulars Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff returning from injury, hopefully sometime during April. With the way the lineup has looked thus far, those additions are sorely needed. Both players returning in short order is no sure thing, but when they do, the Twins will have some serious roster decisions to make. Let’s run through some of the scenarios. Polanco and Kirilloff both return and Trevor Larnach has continued to hit On the surface, the return of a first and second baseman shouldn’t threaten the roster status of a corner outfielder, but it is widely believed that Kirilloff beginning the year on the IL is what opened a spot for Larnach to make the team, while Polanco’s delayed start opened a spot for Willi Castro. Castro figures to be the first to be sent down (he still has options) in any scenario. But if Larnach is still productive, especially in the cleanup spot, the team will have to decide among a bevy of important players as to who remove from the active roster. Larnach can be sent down, but the other outfield options are all post-arbitration veterans. Cutting bait on Gallo or Taylor this early would be foolish, so the choice is then between keeping Kirilloff at Triple-A to prove his health, sending Larnach down, or making a trade. One of Polanco or Kirilloff is ready to return, but the other isn’t Probably the most likely scenario, as Polanco’s injury has had eight months to heal and hasn’t (although he started a rehab assignment this week), while Kirilloff still isn’t feeling one hundred percent after having a bone shaved down. It sounded like Kirilloff is closer since he played in minor-league games in spring training, but now it’s Polanco on playing in the minors. If only one of the two can go, then Castro will depart. Both return with Larnach slumping Larnach is probably sent down in this scenario, and at age 26, things can get complicated, like they did in Texas with Will Calhoun. Calhoun, formerly a stud hitting prospect of the Rangers acquired in the Yu Darvish deal, had a similar situation play out last year when after 44 unproductive April at-bats he was sent to Triple-A. The 27-year-old asked for a trade which the Rangers had no incentive to act upon since he was only in his third year of team control. They eventually did trade Calhoun to the Giants who released him after nine plate appearances. He is currently in the Yankees minor league system with a good shot to contribute this year, given that luminaries Aaron Hicks and Franchy Cordero are the ones ahead of him on the depth chart. Larnach has a better recent track record, but Calhoun has had a twenty home run season in the majors, so if things go south, the Twins may feel they are better off with Matt Wallner on the active roster. Twins fans should certainly hope not, since Larnach has been the team’s best hitter in the early going. Polanco and Kirilloff return with an injury in the infield Polanco and Kirilloff would slide right in, provided the injury isn’t to Correa, and Gallo would move to the outfield with Castro going to Triple-A. If Gallo and Larnach are outproducing Kepler at that point, you would figure that Kepler would start to lose at-bats and be more of a bench piece. If Correa is the one hurt, Kyle Farmer would take his place, with Gordon losing the most at-bats. They return with an injury in the outfield If the injury is to Gallo, Kirilloff replaces him at first and Polanco takes over for Gordon and Farmer, who resume being valuable bench pieces. If the injury is to Kepler or one of the center fielders, Gallo slides in, leaving Kirilloff and Donovan Solano to man first. There are two injuries The old 2022 special. This would probably need to be the case if one wishes to see Edouard Julien before June. The tricky part about a team with a lot of veteran depth is that yes, injuries and underperformance are more easily managed, but if most everyone is available, it's tougher to find spots for your best prospects to get their feet wet, since vets need to be kept on the active roster. Looking ahead to the summer, imagine a scenario where three of Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Julien and Wallner are healthy and playing well. It would likely take three significant injuries for one of them to get a real shot, and while that's a good problem to have, it could pose an issue for Wallner in particular, who at 25 is older than the other prospects, and looking up at five players on the active roster who play outfield and hit left-handed as he does. Of those, only Gallo (and maybe Kepler, who has a team option) figures to not be a part of the team next year. The main takeaway here is that if everyone is available, this team has fourteen position players for thirteen spots. That is why it was presumed Larnach was the odd man out at the start of spring. But as we’ve seen over the first few games, the lineup figures to be a bigger question mark than the rotation and it looks very much as if Larnach is going to be needed if this team plans to contend. The old adage is that injuries have a way of sorting out these types of issues, but it's more complicated when there are five good-to-great minor-league hitting prospects knocking on the door. How the front office manages that potential logjam could have a big impact on whether the team contends for the entire Correa-Buxton window or if a few years from now we’re asking whether those two will waive their no-trade clauses. For now, the team likes its depth and it likes players with options. So don’t be horrified to see Kirilloff optioned to the minor leagues rather than joining the big league roster when and if he is ready. View full article