Doctor Gast

"Alternatively, the Twins could lean more heavily on Jeffers as the primary catcher while using Camargo sparingly. This strategy would shift Jeffers into a role he has never held at the big-league level." Yes, in '22 after trading away Garver & Rortvedt, Jeffers was handed primary catching duties with Sanchez look to as mainly DH & emergency catcher. Jeffers crashed very quickly & not able to handle the physical demands, ended up on the IL. '23 He was declared postseason catcher & caught the whole postseason & didn't do very well. As a backup. In the shortened '20 he had a very good season. In '23 he had even better season. As a slightly more used in tandem. '21 he did very poorly & '24 he waned as the season dragged on. In summary, contrary to what Falvey wants us to believe, Jeffers isn't a primary catcher, he's better used as a backup. Twins need at least a starting catcher & the Twins cupboard is bare. As we should know FA catching is very expensive even for a backup catcher. We are wasting our time with Jeffers & soon he'll want as a Boras client a very hefty extension for a backup catcher. Jeffers isn't our future so trade him yesterday. Although his value has dropped considerably from last year, he's still worth something to help us land a future catcher. We'll end up losing terribly trying to trade Vazquez with a big Fire Sale sign on his back. We'll have to eat a good chunk of that money & then losing money trying to find an expensive inferior catcher in FA. To answer your question "Are the Twins ready to shake up the catching?" They shook things up in '22 & they haven't recovered from it. They have put a Band-Aid on it but now they want to rip it off. Ready or not they have to fix the problem they caused.

I was looking into Joey Bart (SF) last offseason. PIT picked him up for practically nothing. & he became their best catcher last season. I like Valenzuela much better than Camargo but I still don't trust him as a backup catcher. But I'd be open to picking him up & let him season a bit in AAA to work on his hitting. He has potential.

As I've said before, I'd prefer OFers with options than those who don't. I'm not totally against getting Canha IF we need a RH RF platoon, if we need a RH RF platoon we can't afford the big money he wants especially with a poorer '24. We can wait, so if we can pick him up for $3M I'd consider it.

Thanks Blyleven. I appreciate it. LH CFer is a premium. The more they develop Keirsey at the MLB level, the greater his value. Twins gain nothing letting him rot at AAA.

"As such, around this time a year ago, we were wondering if the Twins would add Keirsey to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. They didn't, and from accounts that Aaron Gleeman has shared on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it doesn't sound like they seriously considered it. (Paraphrasing: After multiple inquiries about the team's likelihood of adding Keirsey, a Twins official replied to AG, "Boy, you really like DaShawn Keirsey, huh?")" This kind of response & other actions, make me really doubt the Twins' player evaluations, that sometimes their decisions are more subjective than objective. My feeling in '23 with Castro was that he was ready to be sent down no matter what he did in spring training. Once down in MiLB he'd be forgotten. Fortunately for us injuries forced the Twins to take a chance on him. There were others that weren't so lucky. While they go out get losers like Gallo & Margot. In '23 Keirsey showed that he was our 2nd best CFer in the system behind Buxton, he also showed that he could hit upper minors pitchers, What more do you want from a CFer?! '24 was Keirsey's chance to show what he had before the likes of Emma & Jenkins would come on the scene. & like in '20, Keirsey was robbed of his pro development, '24 he was robbed of a valuable year of MLB development. What player evaluations revealed that Margot was close to the worth we paid for him (I wouldn't have taken him if he was given away) & deemed that Keirsey wasn't able to give us MLB CF performance or that he couldn't eventually hit MLB pitching which would be just icing on the cake. The acquisition of Margot was a big mistake! Margot blocked the role that Martin should have played & took the active spot from Keirsey & Martin had to try fill the CF spot that Margot was suppose to supply. The absence of Keirsey as the main CF sub & management determination of putting Julien at 2B which forced Correa & Santana to cover for him, to make him look passable. These decisions severely affected our defensive compacity especially when Correa wasn't around. We can't go wrong with investing in our MLB-ready in-house players especially when there is a need & a budget crunch, We lost 1 year of MLB development from Keirsey at CF, Varland in the BP, Martin in his role, Miranda & Kiriloff at 1B. We start '25, 1 year behind where we should have been as far as development performance while we finished in 4th place ahead of CWS in '24. So what did we gain? We gained nothing, we lost, & we lost bad! Usually it takes them awhile before they see their mistakes. If they make the same mistake again with Keirsey. it'll be unforgiveable.

Yes TOR was a great landing spot for one of our (LH) OFers in trade but again that ship has sailed. TOR has done a good job of restocking their OF with (LH) Ofers.

There is no big need to where we need to capitalize on trading Castro unless you to go big on a SP or pick up a promising young catcher. & even then we have many other players that we can easily get along w/o. Like Jeffers, Julien, Larnach & a score of prospects with G Gonzales heading the list. If we trade Castro we create a hole that is harder to fill. Castro isn't our starting CF or our starting SS or even our starting 2Bman, he's our utility player which adds valuable much-needed depth to all these premium positions. He gets to & makes plays on a temporary basis that many utility players can't. His flexibility is his greatest talent.

Rox seems like a good fit, many ex-Twins got a 2nd chance there & did well. I can see them signing him & he does well at Coors & then they trade him to a contender at the deadline for prospects. That seems to be their MO. MIA most certainly won't be interested because they are in a rebuild unless they get him dirt cheap & they could also flip him at the deadline for prospects.

IMO this is a strange article. On the one hand shows how an intelligent team like LAD values super-utility players like Castro & on the other hand how we can unload Castro to an intelligent team that values depth. Why can't we be that intelligent team that appreciates what Castro does for us & what a value he is? I agree with Fire D G, we don't have anyone who can replace him in the system. With the Fire Sale sign out we won't get close to what he's worth.

For us having Correa, Lopez & the core that we had & not win, is reason enough for this FO to be out the door but not Falvey, he got a promotion! What good paying Correa & Lopez big bucks if Falvey can't field a competitive team by making the right trades?

What I hope will happen & what I expect will happen are 2 completely different ideas. Although our core to start this offseason isn't as good as last year, it's still pretty good. So a couple of minor essential trades like last offseason would fix it but like last offseason, I don't expect them to viably address these needs. I expect them to trade players we need to afford players we don't need just to say they did something & to feed the hype. I'd hope they let our in-house players to grow in the less essential positions (cOF & 1B) & trade for at least a cheaper middle-of-the-rotation inning-eating SP to replace Paddack ($7.5M), 2 would even be better. $7.5M is cheap for Paddack so I'd hope they'd get something good for him even with the Fire Sale sign out. He'd be the easiest player to salary dump. I'd also push CO hard to convince them they could use Dobnak ($4M). A LHRP would also be nice & we desperately need a very good young MLB-ready catcher. We have the players & prospects we need to trade so let's do it. I don't expect them to do any of this. Falvey is absolutely terrible to initiate trades. But he's also the luckiest, that players do fall into his lap. Outside a miracle of Roki Sasaki fall into our laps or some FO offer a mutually beneficial trade, I expect maybe even worse than last year if they move Vazquez, and for years to come because the Twins has absolutely no foundation at catching. So what I expect even with a very promising core to again be out of contention but this time before the deadline. If we can't compete so why pay Correa & Lopez's salaries? We just as well blow everything up & add to an already bloated farm.

The best bat is Hays but $6.4M is the same price that many complained about Castro's. IMO there's no comparison. Everybody here are saying the same thing that I was going to say. I'll just add stop looking for another expensive Margot that nobody wants to pay for, like last season, while the best solution is in-house. (RH) Buxton we have (LH) Keirsey, to cover the corners we have (BH) Castro & (RH) Martin. We have (RH) Martin, Helman & Keaschal that we can rotate from AAA to MLB, to cover the few LHPs that we face. Again I'll say I'd rather have no action than a bad action. Last offseason I'd rather them do nothing than the actions they did do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ijr9gTviMl0 Finally, someone who shares the same opinion as me. Last deadline I suggested Frankie Montas as a SP option. I stated that Montas was the same formula as Sonny Gray. Good years with OAK, bad years with NYY, rebound with CIN & like Gray surge with MN. Montas was traded to MIL, his ERA was up & down but his K/9 was very interesting. I was blasted for suggesting Montas much like NYM was for signing Montas now. NYM was able to take another former good OAK SP that was floundering SP Sean Manaea & was able to rejuvenate him. IMO Montas is close to 100% & is able to add a few extra clicks on his fast with a team like MN & become a very good pitcher. I predict Montas to have a very good season. Now I didn't expect MN to sign Montas for what he got but I was hoping that like last year, Montas wouldn't be signed right away & settle for a much lower salary.

Yes absolutely make a serious move on Roki Sasaki. He can add a lot to this rotation w/o affecting our payroll plus just think of the ridiculous added Japanese revenue! We have a friendly atmosphere (just ask Maeda), top pitching development, a great core that needs a pitcher like him to launch them deep in the playoffs, & he doesn't have to be overshadowed by a slew of other players. I wouldn't trade Lopez unless we are ready to blow this all up. Which if we get Sasaki that won't be the case. It doesn't make sense to unload a needed reasonably affordable team-friendly frontline SP for older expensive gambles who probably don't want to come here.

WOW! 63 That's young, what a pity. Zimmerman was much better than WAR shows. WAR is a terrible way to measure a catcher's worth. But IMO Jeffers has been our best backup catcher, when used in this backup catcher role his #s are great, The more Jeffers was used as a starting catcher the worse his numbers got.

The poster child Duran, was great in '22 & '23 with LOB. In '24, this could be explained by early injury & normal regression. But it could also be an overall drop in chemistry & some discouragement on Duran's part for not being considered for SP duties. Duran has been used strictly as an unglamorous yet very important fireman role. IMO we should stop looking at players as #s on a spreadsheet. IMO we should elevate Duran solely as a more glamourous closer. It makes sense both statically low LOB, & esteem wise for Duran to regain more of that fire & little skip that he once had especially with the talk that Jax is considered for SP. This down click has added fire to trading Duran during this Twins proclaimed Fire Sale. IMO for our & Duran's sake we don't do this. If handled right Duran can at least regain most of his former glory.

What I mean by patience is seeing a need & a potential player who can fill that need & having the patience to let the player grow into that position. I'm absolutely against hoarding a certain type of player like Rooker, by all means, trade redundant players. I have no patience for this.

I love your article, Tom. You're spot on. People can twist stats around to get them to say anything they want them to say. IMO, many stats are biased, and even if they don't like what they say, they can even manipulate them to accommodate their philosophy. If they are Sano-type hitters, they are very unlucky, but if they are Arraez-type hitters, they are very lucky. IMO what is important is the stat Wins/ Losses. A team that wins close games isn't necessarily lucky. It means that the team has clutch players who can come through when the game is on the line. Many believe that if they hit a bunch of HRs & that those HRs = wins. Not so. Odds are that those who focus on hitting HRs will do so when it doesn't matter & make an out when it does. You might be strong & have the technique but unless a pitcher gives you a pitch to mash you're out of luck. IMO performing in the clutch is an ability not necessarily luck (things like chemistry might enter in). You have players when the game is on the line they come alive. They may be average or even poor during the season but watch out when the lights come on. You might show the stats that the Twins weren't so bad. But IMO the Twins lacked the chemistry to generate clutch performances especially when it mattered the most. We had chemistry in '23, we messed with that in '24. "Weird" analytics where defense at 1B was much more important than offense & offense was much more important at catching than defense, odds of Margot finally getting a pinch-hit hit was enormous, prevailed. Analytics has its place but it shouldn't replace the heart & soul of the game.

I'm in favor of pushing back the starting time for MN back. That they even start their season in warm places & delay their Target field season opener. Because it's too cold for the team to really get going. Why don't they take that into consideration when establishing the schedule? IMO rest days aren't necessary, a smart manager should be able to manage that. I applaud your idea of trying to improve the game.

I wasn't in favor of the trade but it wasn't because of Rooker, It was because the organization was full of big bats, and poor gloves. & the BP desperately needed Rogers. Rooker left the Twins' approach to a more favorable one. Sano didn't adjust, fortunately, Rooker did. Also a lot should be said of having patience & opportunity. A lesson any team should learn.

Great logic Topgun. And you put a lot of thought into it. Besides Jax, I agree with you about our need for a very good young MLB-ready catcher. Some avenues like LAD, SEA, MIL & BAL have these types of catchers who are blocked. I really like Duran & SWR but I'm open to moving them if it lands a Teel. While others like BOS, COL & maybe AZ we'd need to offer Jeffers as a veteran replacement for the catcher we are targeting along with any other players offered. IMO we shouldn't give up on Roki Sasaki. He has a lot of potential in many ways & we have a lot to offer. We can be winners while he is with us, we have very good pitching development. Maeda did well here. he has less people to share the spotlight with and does anyone knows how much money we have allotted for the International Draft? IMO he'll go to SD but we need to at least try.

We are nowhere close to having too many SPs. We have 3 established veteran SPs, who are not immune to injuries, the rest relying on rookie SP isn't sound. Most logical spot of cutting is Paddack & I still doubt that he can't give you more innings than Jax. Jax is where he is because he works hard. is determined & is regimented. IMO Jax can make that transition. There have been a few that have been successful in that attempt. One that I know that did not was AJ Pukk. MIA gave him a short shot at SP, it didn't work out exactly the way they wanted, they put him back in the BP & was better then ever. IMO a target should not be placed on Jax. Putting 150 innings as a standard is stupid. The goal should be getting the most quality innings as we can from him. IMO the risk of Jax of becoming discontent is greater than him not making it as a SP & flounder. If he wants to be a SP, he should be given that chance. Jax & Duran made that transition from SP to high leverage RP. IMO there are others out there who also could do that for us. If Jax believes he can, we need to trust that.

IMO for trades it's best to see what we need & go out there right away before the feeding frenzy that comes after teams don't get what they want. Although Falvey loves FA & wait out everybody until everything is gone & settle for scrapes, IMO it's not a favorable way for a team especially with a budget problem.

Hi Nash, we have a great core like last season. Our biggest hole is at GM who can make viable & essential trades.

I was thinking the same thing but I didn't have the info really to form an opinion. So thank you Eric for providing that. IMO Sandoval would be a good fit for MN. Since he'll be used as basically as a RP in '25 IMO we should offer him $2M like Cody suggested & then $5M in '26 to prove it. I hate to trade Lopez but if that's in the cards we could have an option for '27. Just like you said he could really benefit in his development here in MN. I really don't like paying SP full price while they are rehabbing as they did with Pineda & Paddack.