Finlander

Three random thoughts in the wee hours: 1) Maybe the Twins made the payroll reduction comment to prevent Scott Boras from hounding them at their end of the table in Nashville this week. 2) Replace the phrase "revenue shortfall" with "decrease in profit" in some of the previous posts and see how that affects the conversation. 3) What is a playoff run worth to a franchise, both short term and carryover effect? Is it enough to justify spending near top of stated payroll window ($140-145M) rather than at low end ($120-125M)?

Stroman was only effective in April and the first week or two of May last year. How do you throw $20-25M at him? Gotta trade instead. It'll cost some prospect talent, but including the Grey comp pick in an offer may protect Lee/ERod level players from being in the deal.

His reality is obviously somewhere between first half and second half babip. Just have to decide what is acceptable. But this a great illustration of a point I've made in a previous post somewhere. Lots of nitpicking about Kepler's advanced hitting stats, while his fielding is ignored. Let's see Correa's hitting stats from last year. How about Bux? Or Vasquez? Or any number of other underperformers? It's amazing we won the division while setting strikeout records. Thank goodness for our pitching rotation. And btw, I think the pitching staff appreciates elite fielding from a teammate more than BABIP.

I wouldn't ignore Miranda yet. He was injured last season, but he was a darn good hitter in 2022 and also before that while in the minors. He'll be motivated to return healthy. Let's see where he's at in the coming weeks. I remember reading a proposal to try Buxton at 1B. That idea actually was more intriguing. If Bux can't play CF, it might be worth checking out. Having him as the full time DH with a .220 avg has clogged up the flexibility at DH that Twins had counted on with their roster. If he could get some reps at 1B, that might open the clog a bit.

Playing 1B isn't easy on the hammies when stretching for throws (see: "Harmon Killebrew"). I'd rather see Twins have an experienced first baseman with some height and wingspan to get us a few more outs. Polanco has trade value and reportedly some suitors. Let's get some value back where we most need it.

Fatbat's got it right. Funny, when discussing player values it's all about the bat. The fact that Kepler is a great defender has to be considered. The defense contributed to the effectiveness of the pitching staff, and by extension to the entire team. Of the higher salaried players supposedly on the trade block, I would prioritize trading Vasquez and Polanco above Kepler. We didn't know what we'd get out of Jeffers after 2022, so Vasquez was brought in for push and protection as a starting-capable catcher. Mission accomplished - Jeffers was pushed into great improvement. The Vasquez salary is worthy of a (mostly) full time starter, but we're probably handing the keys over to Jeffers. Vasquez could start for any number of other teams. So he's gone. We can find an inexpensive backup. There is more depth at Polanco's position than at Kepler's, and Jorge hasn't really ever been considered an elite defender. He has versatility and is a switch hitter. So is Castro. So I'd move Polanco before Kepler. I'd keep Kepler and reassess near the trade deadline. If he's doing well and we're contending, he's a good investment, and should be worth doing a QO. If he is slumping a bit, we market him as a second half player to trading partners and get what we can. By this time the young OF hierarchy should be sorted out and a suitable replacement identified. All of this isn't meant to say don't trade Kepler. If there is a ridiculous offer that helps the Twins greatly, then why not? But I'd be looking to move Vasquez and Polanco first if I could. Losing Kepler's defense during a playoff push would not be trivial.

"The spent money has to *be* smart..." Sorry, clumsy thumb syndrome. Point is, if there is a great fit for getting a great one year player, why not now? Salary can be offset somewhat by moving a Polanco, Vasquez, or Kepler, and hopefully playoff wins will help the return on investment.

The Twins are a contending team building for sustained success with a mixture of elite veterans and talented prospects. Their pitching staff was among the best in baseball in 2023, and arguably one of the best in franchise history. I don't believe for a minute that they'll enter next season with no TV broadcast deal or revenue. So I'm not buying into the idea that the payroll will certainly drop a significant amount. As of last month, the Twins team owner is listed as the 4th richest in all of MLB, behind the Giants, Braves, and Cards owners and ahead of 5th place Steinbrenner of the Yanks. The team has a playoff window right now with a good team, weakened division competition, and many dents in the armor of teams such as the Yanks and the Red Sox. The spent money has to smart, granted, but I can't see the reason for tightening the wallet as much as has been discussed. No TV revenue? Nah, I don't believe that'll be the case..

Glasnow looks to be the prime target on this list. He's a legit ace assuming he's healthy, and fits the Twins' greatest need. If he has a great year, we could extend a QA, get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. The others mentioned don't seem as appealing or realistic, although Arozarena is talented. But how about Yandy Diaz as a RH 1B target? He's at $8M annually through 2025. Tampa Bay has Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero coming at corner IF to backfill Diaz. Tampa may intrigued by the chance to shed around $7M of payroll if they believe one of their young guys can step in for Yandy.

Alonso deal? Yasser!!! Today if possible. Otherwise, I'd like to see where Miranda is with his shoulder injury. He was darn good in 2022, but derailed last year. If he's healthy and gets his timing back, he could be the answer. Very salary friendly too.

Nice read and interesting proposal. My gut reaction is a "no" for a few reasons, some admittedly not very scientific: 1. Shoulder injuries are scary. 2. We've had a history of great (or at least scary) lefty starters (Kaat, Viola, Johan, Liriano), but that tradition has been broken by the likes of Diamond, Smeltzer, etc. If we look for another lefty, I'd rather not see a broken funky trick pitcher that we have to fix. At least not in exchange for our starting lefty hitting and elite defender rightfielder. 3. Expanding on above, I hate to give that much help to the Yankees lineup. I'm not sure I'd even do Kepler for Cortes straight up. Maybe Larnach instead. 4. I'd rather see Polanco moved in a package for a Seattle or Marlins pitcher and hold on to Kepler until we think the young outfielders are ready to take over. We could net something for him at the deadline. My reasoning for this is the IF depth seems more MLB ready than the OF depth so far. Of course, that could change by February with signings, trades, etc. Yes, Nestor had one nice stretch. But if we take on a fix-it, I'd like to see more dominant pitching upside.

Second post - sorry. I realize the trade idea for Glasnow is weak - just wanted to use an example. Even for just 1 year, getting Glasnow will require more.

Sticking to subject, which is should the Twins trade "infield depth" for an ace, I'd answer "sure"! There has been a lot of hand wringing above about losing a good prospect or two for a top pitcher. But we do have plenty of infield depth, both at MLB level and big talent coming soon from the minors. Can't play them all. Polanco/Kepler/Vasquez will only be appealing to other teams that can afford their salaries. That rules out teams such as Tampa Bay, for example. So if we're shooting for Glasnow, we'll have to give up young talent. For him why not a decent young infielder (Severino?), a lottery ticket, and SWR to backfill their pitching opening. A team such as Seattle is probably more able to take on Polanco or Kepler's salary as part of a deal for one of their young pitchers. Point is, the article didn't suggest mortgaging the future. It asked about spending some of our IF depth capital to go and get an ace type pitcher. Makes sense to me.

I'm in agreement with the list, except I'd switch out Ryan for either Julien or E Rod. I'm with TopGunn in believing Ryan is actually in #4 area rather than 1-2. I hope I'm wrong. But we have #4 types covered with Ober, Varland, and I wouldn't sleep on Paddock either. I know we need to hold onto pitching, but I wouldn't hesitate to include Ryan in a deal to fetch a true #1-2. I'd hold E Rod for his tools and CF backfill coverage. And Julien is an elite batting eye with some power. He has room for improvement in hitting lefties, but he's the type of hitter that I wish the Twins had more of. Before Buxton's "conversion" to full time DH, we had more flexibility with a rotational DH. We can only hope that Bux can play the field again at times to open that spot up.

I chuckled at the first paragraph, where the Twins have "potentially very little money to spend", while the Mets are "owned by a fellow with a lot of money", given that the Twins owner is something like the 5th richest owner in MLB. Getting to the trade question, I don't think Alonso would be a bad target if Mets would toss in a lottery ticket (a low minors arm or catcher depth maybe?), but I'd rather see our better prospect capital spent on good pitching. I'm also curious if we could use our OF and MI talent to somehow make an offer for an Andrew Vaughn instead.

With Larnach's history at Oregon, I think Seattle, a contending team with available pitching and a need for a 2B upgrade, could be a good match for a trade package that included him and Polanco.

Kepler should be made aware that he is needed in CF now. We have RF depth. If he is not amenable to helping the team in that CF role, then he should be on the trading block now. Whatever is decided, he'd likely be moved by the trade deadline this summer to make room for Martin. That solution, to me, makes more sense than asking a backup to become a regular, or to overpay for a weak hitting FA CF instead of buying a good arm or two. There is also enough team depth at infield, corner OF, and middling upside pitching to look into trading for the CF fix.

Nothing seems to fit. Much rather sign someone like Wacha than Giolito. Regarding trading with them, they really don't seem to have much in their system that we'd be interested in. A shame, as I think we could toss a couple players their way that they'd like, and we could shave salary. They've needed a RF for ages. Kepler? Farmer could be their short term veteran SS. Maybe Vasquez at C...any of these, toss in a couple minor leaguers to maybe pry a pitcher from them. Beyond that, I don't see any moves with White Sox players, current or castoffs.

Two points to make off the top of my head: A trade or DFA of a current roster member may have jolted the team out of their funk. They're collectively not performing like a playoff-worthy team. With so many hitters not coming anywhere close to meeting expectations, I am still skeptical about the effectiveness of the coaching. The hitting approach of many players border on downright painful. The strikeout totals bear this out. So the front office may need to be called out for more than player personnel decisions.

In the outfield, it's not just running, it's often running while looking upwards. Recall that Bux used to suffer from migraine headaches, and he's had some collisions in the past. I wonder if something like vertigo or some other form of imbalance is impeding his return to CF more so than his knee. You look straight ahead or scan around in a generally level plane while running the bases. Much different than looking up...

The stats from 2019 really should be excluded for a fair comparison. Torii would have jacked 50 with that baseball. My "what might have been" pick for someone who could have made the list with a better break: Jim Eisenreich. Jimmy Hall was headed to the list too until he was beaned - never the same player after that.

Arraez is not a singles hitter. He's not a homerun hitter. He's a proven elite hitter with around 99th percentile bat to ball skills. Very respectable slugging percentage. He hits in the clutch, and he puts pressure on the opposing team with his unique talent at the plate. I'd much rather have him up in an extra inning game and a runner on second than a Rob Deer/Chris Davis type hitter. We're on pace to set strikeout records, and unfortunately it's not with our pitching. Lopez is a decent pitcher, nothing elite. His past arm issues balance out any knee concerns with Arraez. I like Lopez. But I do wish a prospect or two (and/or Kepler) could have been added to Arraez to fetch us a second Miami pitcher. I can't help but think of the Twins dumping David Ortiz because he wouldn't learn to slap the ball to left field, and now we've moved Arraez because he's not a power hitter. Cases of mistaken identities.

The Twins seem to be stuffed with IF/OF utility types. They should move him to another team that could give him a shot. Maybe they could include him with another prospect in exchange for a lottery arm. To go 20/40 with fielding competency isn't trivial.

With 6 corner outfielders on the roster who are lefthanded swingers, I think Rooker may have been able to find some at bats on this squad. He had a nice stretch during his initial callup with the Twins, but nobody foresaw this year's huge decrease in K%. I hope the late bloomer hits a ton and gets traded to a contender this summer. And I hope Paddack gets healthy and becomes an effective starting pitcher for the Twins for a couple of years. What the team has done so far is a testament to the value of assembling a quality rotation and relying in veteran lineup depth instead of throwing the rookies to the wolves. I think the biggest surprise so far this year is how well Taylor is doing as basically an everyday player rather than a backup. It's kept Buxton protected as the primary DH for now, which exposes the lefty-heavy corner outfielders more. But it's a nice problem to have. I guess if you look at it, Taylor is much more valuable on this team than Rooker cound be when you factor in all-world defense.

I think Ober has demonstrated his skills and poise in the majors enough to be considered a notch above Varland. His height is also an advantage in that his delivery is a different look for an opposing hitter. It's tough enough to have an all-righthanded rotation, but the release points of both Ober and Ryan help to differentiate between the pitchers and keep the hitters nervous. I like Varland too. He'll get his shot soon.