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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    It was a real joy to read that the Twins and BB agreed on a contract. It seems fair all around. The only risk I see with Buxton's contract is the fear that the fo will see the contract as a ceiling for other contracts in the future.
  2. tony&rodney
    Correct, This is one reason. The Twins do not have a single pitcher rated among the top 50 prospects. Pitching prospects fail at a very high rate, 70-80%. I still advocate for only trading two or three pitching prospects. The Twins need a minimum of two experienced pitchers to lead their youngsters and the staff. More importantly, the window for the lineup is pretty much now and waiting 3-5 years for the pitching prospects to develop leaves the team without Garver, Sano, Polanco, Donaldson, and Kepler. While some of these are replaceable, the loss of all of them would be a hit to the lineup. I'm ok with some trades because the team needs to be balanced in order to compete.
  3. tony&rodney
    No personal argument and no offense intended. It seemed like your mention of Montas as having developed/ being ready to produce and then mentioned developing Winder and reaping a reward of top prospects when he reaches the status of Montas. FWIW, I am very high on Winder.
  4. tony&rodney
    I think you inadvertantly made an argument to trade for Montas. He has experience, finished his struggles, and has arrived as a pitcher. Why would you develop a pitcher like Winder to then trade him for top prospects who then need time to develop in turn. Whatever one believes, the Twins need experienced pitching and I don't care how they get it. Without pitching, the team will struggle. If every hitter had career years they still could never match the 1977 Twins and without pitching the fight is all uphill.
  5. tony&rodney
    The Twins are sitting on about fifteen pitching prospects and about four hitting prospects. The team needs at least two experienced starting pitchers. They have eschewed the free agents leaving the trade market to fill the holes. The post does a solid job of pointing out why Martin should be retained. Falvey should have received reports regarding the potential for Martin as a future player by now. His value does not appear as high as his potential as a batsman right now. I don't believe he has established himself enough to draw the attention from another club where the Twins clearly benefit. For example, the Reds would not trade Luis Castillo for Martin. Finally, my belief is that the team has other players that could be moved for the pitching capital needed; keep Martin.
  6. tony&rodney
    Pitched about twenty times against Mike Marshall. He was a very complicated individual. He once claimed that if he had learned to throw a decent curveball before he retired, he would have won a pile of Cy Young awards. When I left Florida he was still pitching. Thank you for the nice memorial post. Each year we pause and remember those who came to the end of the line, many too soon.
  7. tony&rodney
    Two inexperienced players who are candidates for 4th outfielder could spell Byron in the dozen games he misses next season: Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino. Buxton is the least of the worries for next season.
  8. tony&rodney
    Kirilloff made his regular season debut in 2021. He made an appearance in the 2020 post season. Those are kept as separate categories. Simple misunderstanding that many might miss. The post was just for 2021 regular season debuts.
  9. tony&rodney
    Grades are always odd entities. When a player's debut is RotY, Cy Young, MVP, or something akin to Bert Blyleven it almost seems heretical to pass out an A to anything that just exceeds our expectations and make us hopeful for future performance but is well below All Star status. The other end of the spectrum is a failing or low grade for a player forced into MLB play well before they are ready because there just isn't another body on the 40 person roster to put in uniform. Either way, judgments are made and the post is excellent with information. While I would not have handed out any A grades this year, I don't disagree with the analysis or judgments passed. I would have been too lenient on the lower end, so no fails. Ober, Ryan, and Kirilloff get S+; Moran, Barnes, Gordon, and Jax get an S; and Larnach, Celestino, and Rortvedt get an S-, which roughly corresponds to B, C, and C-. The player I expect to rise above all others is Kirilloff. I'm interested in watching how Ober and Moran develop as pitchers, and believe that Rortvedt could be much more than expected. Barnes was smart to take an opportunity to pitch in Korea because while I think he can be a decent pitcher in the big leagues, he wasn't going to get much of a chance. He can prove himself overseas and still make a living.
  10. tony&rodney
    Nice write up of the 2021 debuts.
  11. tony&rodney
    The Twins could potentially have a really good bullpen this year. Rogers is a key in my view. Thielbar and Moran are fair from the left side as is Duffey from the right side. Jorge Alcala is ready to blossom into a bonafide pitcher to be counted on in tough situations. That is five decent pitchers. From there, I expect some young arms to emerge, primarily Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and possibly Joe Ryan. It would be nice to see Ryan hold a starting role but he may be better in relief. I'm not worried about the Twins relief squad, but a poor recovery from Rogers changes plenty. The starting staff? ... oh boy.
  12. tony&rodney
    Summarizing, the Twins have a young dynamic pitching coach that we like, three #5 starting pitchers prospects that we like, and a new FA acquisition to fill in as needed. The enthusiasm for our boys is understandable. The current lineup of starting pitchers rostered is the weakest in baseball, arguably. There is still time to build the team and that is where I would place my optimism.
  13. tony&rodney
    Where is the link for 2022 prospects on Fangraphs? I missed it somehow.
  14. tony&rodney
    I was fairly disgusted by last offseason and watched a couple of dozen Tigers games, a dozen Mariners games, and likely thirty Rays games. Sadly, I still listened to most Twins games but it felt inevitable from Week One that Happ (who wasn't actually terrible) and Shoemaker were a good idea. We have beat the trade possibilities to death. So many rookies looking for a roster opportunity this year and desperately needing a couple of examples to lead them. We can add two or three pitchers and Story and still come in below $130 million.
  15. tony&rodney
    Same
  16. tony&rodney
    Harmon retired as the American League leader in home runs from the right side. Tony Oliva was my favorite player but Killebrew was easily the greatest player to ever wear a Twins uniform, including Steve Carlton.
  17. tony&rodney
    I like the idea too. My concern - do you or does anyone still believe that the 2022 roster budget will be $130+ million?
  18. tony&rodney
    Bats are good to have. My first iteration included Starling Marte, Trevor Story, and a few free agent pitchers as well a couple of trades for pitchers. In early October a budget of $130 million was largely assumed by many on Twins Daily and many of us pushed the limit upwards towards $140 million. I changed my mind in mid November. Two bats would bring the roster cost to $130+ million. That could be fun but I'm thinking the actual budget is more or less $110 million. The shift in numbers moves what players are available and while I believe Conforto and Story would be huge additions, the numbers might not allow it.
  19. tony&rodney
    Cleveland traded for Bauer, Carrasco, Miller, Kluber to name a few. Yes, I believe they do develop their pitchers but we need to understand that trades are an important part of building a team. "During Falvey's time in Cleveland's front office, the team has acquired star-caliber talent through almost every avenue: free agency, trades, draft, international market." - from Twins Daily, October 18, 2016 by Nick Nelson The Twins need to complete two trades; it's the right time.
  20. tony&rodney
    When Detroit, Houston, and other teams tanked their rosters were bereft of talent up and down the roster. These teams then turned to accepting woeful results in hopes that top draft choices would pay off. Correa, Bregman, Mize, and Manning are examples. The Twins have talent up and down their roster. They need a couple experienced starting pitchers to complement their talent. The current state of the teams starting pitching may have promise in prospects for the near future, but only the other AL Central teams could be happy with the rotation noted in the post. There isn't a legitimate MLB rotation right now on our roster. Bundy could be a fair depth piece and we hope he does well. Dobnak, Ober, and Ryan are potentially solid mid to back end pitchers. Our prospects provide potential additions as opportunities arise, which always happens every year. This leaves a notable problem however. Who fills the top two or three spots? Without somebody pitching on those days, all discussion of depth becomes moot.
  21. tony&rodney
    When you find yourself stressed about the Twins possibly trading two of their top starting pitching prospects just insert a few names to help you relax. Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Jay, Fernando Romero, & Edwar Colina. Does that help? Now the names thrown out to be received in trade, Bassitt, Montas, etc., could also tank horribly but are experienced talented pitchers. There is always risk. The Twins need pitchers and it is down to a very risky Rodon or Greinke (he is not interested) and trades.
  22. tony&rodney
    Someone should put up a poll. It sure seems like many of the comments oppose a trade of top twenty prospects, especially if the return is for less than three years. No free agent signings unless players like Bundy. No trades for good pitchers due to cost. Are the Twins backed into a corner with a dozen prospects who many want to see? Last season, many of these prospects were injured and are unlikely to throw many innings. Only one is ranked in MLB Pipeline's Top 100, Balazovic at #81. The bulk of the prospects are seen nationally as good mid to back of the rotation starting pitchers potentially or ultimately relievers. Where are Romero, Thorpe, Jay, and other missing top five Twins starting pitching prospects from the last half dozen years? A 40 person crunch will come next season, made worse if the Twins trade a pile of their current more expensive players. Some have mentioned Tampa Bay, but we do not have their team of management nor their deep roster and the Rays need to operate in the manner they do because they have pathetic support. The Twins have better financial resources to use. $110-130 million should be a reasonable budget. We can hope, but without some changes in early 2022 the season may be really rough.
  23. tony&rodney
    "Never lost"
  24. tony&rodney
    Steamer, ZIPS, etc. all say the same thing - the Twins have bats and need pitching. When you look at at national baseball sites such as The Athletic, there is a real degree of confusion to why the Twins stood around in November and a near unanimous expectation that the team will add significant starting pitchers through trades. ZIPS says the same.
  25. tony&rodney
    The comments are an interesting take on prospects versus experienced players. Would any one here be willing to trade Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, and Nick Gordon for Frankie Montas? What about a trade of Wander Javier for Chris Bassitt? Those were four of the Twins top five prospects in 2018. No, I am not advocating a trade of a host of prospects. The players are assets and need to be evaluated and moved occasionally, sometimes with risks. I am excited to see how a few of our prospects pan out this coming year. In fact, in numerous comments on posts, my protective tendencies with the Twins prospects has me holding back the vast number of young players I am willing to let go of via trades. Last season I found myself watching every pitch when Bailey Ober was on the mound because he seemed to be making adjustments from start to start and even within the games. Ryan was fun to watch as well. I get the interest in prospects but established players gained via trade(s) must be a part of any solution that hopes to see the Twins be a competitive team both in 2022 and through the remainder of this decade. Trades may be risky but they seem less risky than free agents. The 40 person roster as presently constituted does not present a reasonable team for 2022 and adding just a Michael Pineda and a Danny Duffy will not materially improve the team. There have been numerous solid trade suggestions from writers (Nash) and many members on this site, although we are in the dark as to what other teams are requiring for their players. Falvey will be the one who makes it happen. Trades are the best option at this time for the Twins.
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