tony&rodney

She doesn't.

We will have some semblance of an answer by October if indeed the Twins are working on fundamentals.

The Twins have a good pitching staff. The Twins have some decent bats. The Twins don't run; they have a slow team. The Twins are a below average team defensively. The Twins can win 90 games if their pitchers are really good and their bats support the pitching. Expect 83-87 wins, which could be enough to win the division.

Coaches and managers ride a fine line with their players. These guys are together 8 months or more a year. There are more than a few players who would have a problem with required bunting practice. In today's game, a player must take the initiative and find the time on their own. The coaches are always willing to throw or feed a machine. 15-30 minutes a day is needed to build and refine the bunting skills that every player was forced to do as part of their youth and high school practices. We may see this skill make its way back into the game. What goes around comes around.

Hopefully every player is at their best. Chris Paddack was at his best in 2019 and that year has covered for everything he has done since. Falvey is on record as saying he wanted to acquire Paddack since he was hired in 2017 and he did so as soon as the Padres agreed to deal Paddack. So we get Paddack no matter what until he is injured. That is the reality. I don't think this is even an argument because Falvey makes the call. The argument for Woods Richardson, Festa, and Matthews to be ahead of Paddack ignores 2019, just as we don't expect Nelson Cruz back or Huascar Ynoa to repeat his 2021 season. For some of us the future is now and we would rather watch any 2 of the 3 guys named above pitch than Paddack. Speaking only for myself, I believe the Twins stand a better chance to win games with Festa and Woods Richardson and then Matthews on the mound than Paddack. I also have no concern about any of the young guys wearing down this season. As said often, injuries do occur. No reason to get too excited by wins or losses, but we will hope for wins.

Assigning value to offense has been done forever, a run scored counts for your side no matter how that run is scored. Putting the ball in play is generally, but not always, preferable to striking out, hitting into a double play being one common example. An exception would be when a run scores on that double play which is a positive versus not scoring. Now we are in a decade where folks argue vociferously for the latest newest fashions. This was predictable and some of the newer (2-3 decades old) analytics are popular. In any event grading offense is being done and has been done pretty successfully forever. Conversely, grading defense has difficulty all over the place. Does every batted ball get assigned value exactly in the same way by the same person and are playing conditions factored into an equation? Impossible. Decades ago i developed a somewhat shoddy system, using a raft of diacritical marks, to assign value to the defensive plays in front of me. This was initiated by comments from a broadcaster lavishing praise on Pete Rose for his hustle and using words that could be taken as criticism to describe how Rod Carew ran the bases. There have been thousands of instances where the guy who looks all 100% wasted running draws praise when the smooth runner is frowned on as having natural talent but not extending themsleves. I personally doubt that Pete Rose, who played very hard, ever outworked Rod Carew at anything. But I digress. Last year, I charted a few Twins games to measure, according to my shoddy system, to determine quite roughly whether the defensive movements or plays from either team affected the final score. In sum, defense just doesn't matter in blowout games that much even if the runs scored to get the rally going were a result of poor play and conversely a fine defensive play stopped a rally. So it is hard to predict the value in a blowout. However, in close games (1-3 runs difference) the ability of one team to convert outs on as near to exact plays as is possible when the other team cannot make a play makes a difference. This is all just circumstantial scribbles and grading defense is (IMO) remains subjective. Two people cannot view the same play in an exact fashion. The Twins lost several games due to a general inability to make plays in my small sample. This has no wider worth as everyone has their own view of individual players, which may be due to cultural factors as well as natural favoritism for one's home team. A simple example of that may be how many on this board view Edouard Julien versus how he is viewed by people from elsewhere. Why does BTV have Julien so high? Just a pile of blab to say that the efficacy of grading defense is nowhere near how offense is evaluated. What is clear to most is that they both have value. The current Twins front office has their views as well and we get to watch the product they value. Answering directly to the original title, I doubt whether the defense will be a disaster but the odds of the Twins advancing in a playoff series (should they qualify) are quite low because little things like catching the ball make a difference in a series of close games.

Paddack's numbers via quotes from him. 100 innings of 4.50 ERA would be amazing IMO.

Don't forget Edouard Julien as Comeback Player of the Year. Correa is a fun shortstop to watch because he is so steady and his throws are almost always machine like in their accuracy.

Paddack is out of options so there would not be a place for him on the Marlins team. Big Chris looks mighty fine in his cowboy hat and boots, maybe the Texas teams would have an interest. Also, don't forget the Dodgers who are putting together quite a collection of TJ survivors.

We all need to wish Chris Paddack and Ty France well this year. They both have talent, each has had some success in the major leagues before, and they were identified by the front office as key pieces to this coming year. Paddack has specifically stated he is ready for 35 starts and more than 200 innings. France is playing coy, no such statements thus far. Another day, another Paddack anointment. I hope these guys have terrific years.

More or less Chris Paddack is Margot, Gallo, etc. The comments confirm that CP will be in the rotation based on how the Twins see their world. So it goes.

You speak the line the Twins are predicted to take. The games and season will play out and we can judge how well things went in October. My comments may reflect some deep frustration of how the Twins build their roster and that is a half decade old now, especially heightened by the last two years. I understand and respect that others have differences in their views.

Correa leading the Twins to a World Series title would be sweet, but it would need to be on the backs of pitching and young players not yet established.

This is a fair question. It is also an issue that this front office knew about and they still have not proceeded. It is hard to believe that the Twins have yet to receive any interest or even an offer for Chris Paddack. I empathize with how Paddack has worked to return from injuries and a quick perusal of the game logs and memory reminds us that he had a number of strong outings last season. The reality is that Paddack slots as the 7th best option in regards to starting pitchers for 2025. Outside of 2019 there isn't enough to boost him any higher. My goal in choosing players is and has been for those players who best help the team win games. Paddack should have been traded already. He is still on the roster though and I'm putting him in the bullpen if no team offers anything before the season begins. Baldelli and others have zero reason to state firm plans until the end of March. That gives Falvey a month to find a cure for his publicly stated infatuation for Paddack that goes back to when Falvey was hired. Hell, I was high on Paddack in 2018 and 2019. I'm cured.

Ty France is the kind of infielder that the front office favors. Look around and count the number of glove challenged types on the roster. The Bader signing was actually a surprise to me except that we had an inkling due to the previous trades for Taylor and Margot. Bader was a decent hopeful addition, depending on how he is used. Royce Lewis should be a first baseman and this year should determine whether he can progress at third. Brooks Lee projects as a decent third baseman but is too slow for second base. Can Lee hit? Willie Castro has a clear best position - utility player. That leaves Martin, Miranda and Julien who all have demons for gloves. Interestingly and amazingly so, Julien may be the key for the 2025 Twins. This seems impossible but at his best in 2023 and in April of 2024 Julien was more or less fine in the batter's box and at least the equal of the other choices at second base. If Julien cannot be his best self, I'm looking for hope in the fashion of totally unproven guys such as Austin Martin, Payton Eeles, or Luke Keaschall. To the point of the article, yes this infield could be very difficult to watch and more depressing for the pitchers. Last October, nearly every consideration of change to the 2025 roster for me was focused on improving the defense and athleticism of the team. It is late February and time to hope for the best. Let us all chant together, "Ty France is a good first baseman."

He lost it last season.

The contract/option as a significant or even important part of this conversation is counter to a goal of winning games. The best players should receive roster spots and what a player did LAST season should count. I wonder if the Yankees are going option Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt because of the presence of Marcus Stroman? That led me to wondering how the Yankees could get away with giving a starting position to Anthony Volpe two years ago and then letting him play again last year? Didn't any of their front office personnel know that Volpe was a rookie, young, and inexperienced. Which players give the team a chance to win games? Who shows the talent and skills needed to put a team in a position to win games? Last season Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Woods Richardson were the top four starters who put the Twins in a position to win games. If SWR is healthy and not one of the five starting pitchers in April a message will resonate across the organization.

Signing Ty France for $1M doesn't interfere with the budget and his production will determine whether it is a mistake. If he repeats his work from the last two years, not good. If he puts up a 4.4 WAR, good. Earlier, it was noted that there isn't really a $10M FA out there that makes much of a difference and thus the additions of Bader, Coulombe, and France are fine. Makes sense. Then again, the Twins are close, depending on source, to a $150M payroll after thousands of angst-filled comments. The question France raises for me is the same question that has existed for several years - what is the plan? Is there a plan that anyone can identify? I don't need to repeat words that Riverbrain has articulated on numerous occasions regarding roster construction. I will only add that I am very much waiting for a new ownership group for the Twins and my interest has nothing whatsoever to do with the Pohlads.

Watching batting practice is my idea of fun. That was true when I was young and still is, whether playing or coaching or managing or now as an old retired fan of the game. The two best bunters I ever saw were Rod Carew and Barry Bonds. I marveled at Rod and his routine but it was in the late 1960s and then in the 1970s, so I cannot precisely remember all of the details except that Carew took his time. Bonds did something I never saw another player do. He grabbed some orange traffic cones and placed them at specific places on the field and then proceeded to bunt to each cone with the idea of the ball stopping as close to the cone as possible without hitting it. It was pure artistry. I know for a fact that there are players who do not practice bunting and without practicing a skill it is pointless to attempt in a game against MLB pitching. I have heard and read the idea that bunting against velocity and "today's pitchers" is too difficult. I can unequivocally state that this is complete nonsense. Of course not every player will be accomplished at bunting even with practice any more than practice will make every player a great hitter or gold glove fielder. A team or player that wants to win should be really interested in learning how to bunt. The last time I saw Bonds in batting practice was in Arizona in 2002. This guy had 10 seasons greater than the year that Shohei Ohtani had last season and yet there he was out there with his cones playing darts, 5 bunts to each of 5 cones all perfectly dropped as if it was nothing. Talent needs practice to develop a skill. By the way, I watched Ohtani beat out a bunt for a base hit last season and I wondered whether he had a specific routine.

Last season I only watched Morris pitch 5 times. My take was that he was living a charmed life at times and yet he set down batter after batter including any number of batters who are ranked as consensus top 100 players. I'm looking forward to watching him pitch at AAA where Andrew will face some veterans and stiffer competition. He was quietly dominant when I saw him, but I noticed from his game logs that he was cuffed around a few times. For some reason he reminds me of a few Cleveland pitchers who carved out a niche for themselves after getting some experience. Sometimes it can be hard to tell who can manage at the MLB level and who cannot. We should learn more this year about Andrew Morris. If nothing else he is quite a contrast in size from Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson.

Certainly Simeon Woods Richardson has earned the right to claim one of the 5 starting pitcher slots based on last year. We should also agree to say that Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan have earned a slot as well. The answer for the final rotation spot depends on a couple of factors. First would be general health and how each of the pitchers aiming to be starters this year look come the end of March. There is the statement we always hear - "these things have a way of sorting themselves out". If all look fine we go to a second idea - do the Twins play to win from Opening Day. If the players take the field based on their contract status, as in who is going to earn more money in 2025, we are certain right now of the decision. A few have mentioned merit. Do we have any evidence that this is important to the team's roster decisions? Are options so important that they must be used unless or until an injury requires a promotion? Consider that since the current front office came aboard there have been two Twins to receive a vote for Rookie of the Year. We might suggest that this means it is difficult to break into a lineup or gain a roster position when the team is so competitive and clearly has so many superior players. Except, what about Cleveland? Other teams? Based purely on performance from last season we know that Woods Richardson started 28 games and allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in all but 10 games with 4 of the last games of the year accounting for his double digit number. Paddack started 17 games and had 9 games where the hits exceeded the innings pitched. David Festa started 13 games and allowed more hits than innings on 4 occasions. Looking over the numbers, whether using ERA, WHIP, BA, OPS, etc., the data lines up pretty much the same way. From a visual standpoint Festa has the best stuff, Woods Richardson is confounding to hit, and Paddack is good at times but inconsistent. Woods Richardson entered his final start of the year with an ERA of 4.00 and he was below a 4.00 ERA all season until mid September. Festa bombed his first two starts, but was below a 4.00 ERA collectively in his next 12 outings. Paddack had a number of excellent starts spaced throughout the season and in his final start on July 14 he managed to bring his ERA below 5.00 for the year (4.99). The final decision rests with the front office and we can be pretty sure that something comes up in the next 5 weeks that directs the final rotation choices and eliminates all conversation on what to do. However, based strictly on a choice to win games, the merit system is still the best idea and as of right now Paddack comes in third in nearly any type of analysis of performance directed to helping a team win games. Of course ..... options ..... for later in the season .... young guys should wait .... blah, blah, blah.

You should go back to October 31 and build your team with a $150 million 26 person payroll.

Opening FWIW, Falvey and his idea of roster construction, talent evaluation, and offseason moves as part of a plan completely escapes me. I can't make any sense out of what he is doing. I suspect his career in baseball is tied to the outcome of the 2025 season if the Pohlads have indeed sold the team by July. It is interesting to me that Luis Urias would be a person of interest as reported by Hayes. Urias is pretty much beyond a player signed before a season begins. Seattle ditched him because his skills are in the past. Paul DeYong still can hit the long ball against poor pitching and he is still ok as a shortstop. I'm more concerned about what this says about all of Correa, Lee, Lewis, Eeles, Martin, and Julien if the Twins brain trust feels a necessity to add one of the above. Either of these guys could be added during the season in an emergency. The offseason is closing soon and the Twins are still looking for their big bat. A fair amount of money is tied up in Vazquez, Castro, Bader, and Paddack ($30M+). I hope these players plus Urias or DeJong if added lift the team from its expected 84-86 win window. It has been a confusing offseason and the Twins are still several trades away from where it seems they need to be. Closing FWIW ... once upon a time I joined TD (in its first week or month) and participated. Previously I had contributed to a friend's site for another team and wrote regular articles. I read all of the Twins sites that proliferated about 25 years ago along with others about baseball. Sickels was my favorite. I used a totally different name, email, and byline than now. For a host of reasons, I stepped away as many others have. I joined again about five plus years ago as tony&rodney. I try to be rational but am off the wall at times. The writers do a good job given the challenges of putting out content for what is now a much bigger product and the difficulties of creating for a site about the Twins. Despite frustrations that all might have for each other, differences remain important in a world that is trying to crush exactly that. Enjoy the entertainment of baseball and the obscure community of this online conversational site. While breaks are needed from time to time, participation is necessary or the site dies.

I understand that you have this feeling and most on TD support you, but that is unlikely to be the same viewpoint of the baseball people or he would already be gone, DFA'ed/released.

We could have just brought back Farmer and Margot as added depth. Same, same.