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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    I'm not sure what point there is in trying to justify the roster they put together for year 5 of an alleged rebuild. It is what it is. The Twins will continue to lose, and fans and ownership can evaluate whether the current approach is worth supporting.
  2. drivlikejehu
    To date, the Twins have fielded their oldest set of position players since 1998 and oldest pitchers since 2003. And the young position players they do have are struggling. The 2011 collapse was a long time ago at this point. I think it's a little bit of an understatement to say that the Twins "may have a bigger problem." They definitely, without question, have a much bigger problem. It makes no sense for Pinto to be in AAA, but then again, it makes no sense to count on scrubs like Boyer, Schafer, etc. The Twins are a badly led organization that makes poor decisions... it's not any more complicated than that.
  3. drivlikejehu
    I don't think the Twins can contend with their current management. So there is no time horizon because there is no indication that changes are really possible in that area. I do think even Pohlad has some kind of pain threshold, but it will be 2 or 3 more years before that starts becoming a possible factor.
  4. drivlikejehu
    I don't think there are true answers, but there are points of reference. It took Beane 5-6 years, albeit with a tiny budget. He also never lost 90 games. I think the better question for the Twins is whether they will ever compete under their current management. I doubt it. The Twins are simply unable to field a decent pitching staff and their future hopes rely on a handful of young pitchers, some of whom already come with significant doubts regarding durability. Many times, organizations have allegedly been flush with prospects, yet never translate that potential into MLB success. There is every indication that the Twins are headed down that path.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Like I said...
  6. drivlikejehu
    Right, the point here is that, whether it's someone like Santana or Ponson, more balls in play = worse results.
  7. drivlikejehu
    There is no contradiction. The difference lies in the ability of hitters and pitchers to influence the results of balls in play. A hitter can choose to 'swing for the fences.' If the decrease in balls in play is more than offset because he is hitting the ball harder, then the strikeouts are a worthwhile trade-off. They aren't 'good,' but necessary to get the benefit. A pitcher has no way of making this trade-off. Allowing more balls in play does not decrease the quality of contact. In fact, the evidence tends to show the opposite. So far as supposed contradiction #2, again there is no contradiction - no one believes walks are a good thing for pitchers to allow. Command is universally considered to be crucial for pitchers.
  8. drivlikejehu
    They will say "don't play them" if they hit a pre-determined innings limit. The minor leagues are for player development, not winning at all costs.
  9. drivlikejehu
    How big of Ryan not to "hold" his boss to the notion that at-will employment doesn't apply to the GM of an MLB team. It's just another statement in a long line - Ryan talks about accountability, he just doesn't practice it.
  10. drivlikejehu
    The guy is not a good hitter. That's reality. I guess offense is hard enough to find these days that he can be an OK bench player for a couple years.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I don't really see it with Gonsalves - he's a solid enough prospect, but pitchers with good command have a big advantage against undisciplined hitters in the low minors. I'm not sure he has the stuff to keep it up at higher levels. Twins fans certainly should be concerned over Stewart's shoulder. Pitchers get hurt constantly. It's not like some kind of improbable event.
  12. drivlikejehu
    I like him more as a hitter than Vargas, at least for now and probably next year. Offense is hard to come by these days, which should give Pinto value even if he isn't the everyday catcher. I'm sure there are teams that would be happy to take him off the Twins hands, if they have no use for him.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I'd expect both Hu and Thorpe to return to CR to begin 2015, just based on the fact they started 2014 in extended ST and won't wind up with too many innings in full season ball. Both are dealing right now though.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Delmon Young had a .741 OPS at age 22 and .733 at age 23. That's right around his career averages. Luis Rivas never really improved on his age 21 performance. Those are just two quick Twins examples. Ben Grieve peaked between age 22-24 before hanging around as a lesser player for a while. Players do not develop predictably. There are certain trends of course, but the degree to which young players improve is much less than is commonly believed- something Fangraphs did a good job examining recently. Though I am optimistic about Arcia, his plate discipline issues are a real problem. I wish it was 100% certain he would overcome it, but that's not how baseball works.
  15. drivlikejehu
    The problem is that you're cherry-picking after the fact. Most young players never achieve a big breakout, either because they were good right away or because they didn't develop further. Arcia certainly has the talent, but historically speaking it is incorrect to assume that a player will massively improve just because he entered MLB at a young age. Arcia's lack of defense is a big part of the problem - it puts a ton of pressure on his bat from an overall production standpoint.
  16. drivlikejehu
    For a subpar corner OF defender, Arcia's offensive numbers are not good at all. I've long been a big Arcia fan, but he clearly is having trouble adapting to what MLB pitchers are able to do. There's no kind of swing that works against a ball in the dirt. His advice for Vargas is definitely problematic. Despite his size, Vargas isn't a classic power hitter at all. He's a switch hitter that is line-drive oriented, as opposed to consistently lofting the ball. Vargas' upside is something like his AA line of .281/.360/.472 - and to hit for that kind of average, he will need to make consistent (quality) contact.
  17. drivlikejehu
    The problem with defense is that you can't just ignore it. The difference in run-prevention between a gold glove SS and an immobile 1B is massive. Over a long period of time, the defensive fluctuations tend to even out and allow for comparisons across positions and eras. Sometimes the numbers don't produce the answer someone wants, but most likely it's because the person has misjudged player value due to their own biases. For small sample use, WAR is still a fine starting point, from which adjustments can be made subjectively if desired. About xFIP there is no question - it is a very handy metric. In a small sample size it is, by far, the best way to quickly evaluate pitcher performance.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Most players don't reach the full "upside" they had as amateurs/prospects. Considering the high risk inherent with pitching prospects and his TJ surgery, Gibson seems to be in a pretty good place right now.
  19. drivlikejehu
    What is a prospect ranking? It's obviously just for entertainment and discussion purposes at the fan level, but prospect evaluation matters a lot for the actual organizations. So while, as fans, we are limited in many respects, I don't think it's correct to say that there is no right answer. When MLB organizations make decisions involving young players, they are providing answers. If they are consistently valuing prospects in a certain way, I think we need to start there as a guide for how prospects should be ranked. Would the Twins more quickly trade away Vargas or Thorpe? I don't think there is any question at all that they would sooner trade Vargas. Nor do I think there is any question of which player the other 29 organizations would pick if they had the choice. And this isn't idle speculation, because we can look at trade histories and see that young, high-upside prospects bring a better return than more advanced, but lower-ceiling prospects. Opinions will always vary with respect to particular players, but I strongly disagree with the idea that prospect comparisons are completely subjective.
  20. drivlikejehu
    The better prospect is the one you'd rather have, not the one closer to the Majors. There are different kinds of risk. Vargas, in prospect terms, has a very high level of risk. He has no defensive value and is only a regular DH if he hits a ton. Almost no prospect is guaranteed to do that. For another example, Logan Darnell has a very high risk, probably 90%+, of being a AAAA pitcher. So while you are considering the risk that a young player will not reach his ceiling, you are not giving enough weight to the risk that a more experienced player just isn't very good. That's why BA, Law, etc. generally emphasize upside so long as there aren't huge performance problems. Adam Walker is an example of that - he notionally has upside but the results tell us he has little chance of reaching it.
  21. drivlikejehu
    I'd have the same top 5, but 6-10: 6. Nick Gordon 7. Jorge Polanco 8. Lewis Thorpe 9. Trevor May 10. Kennys Vargas? Not sure about this one. I think, conceptually, ranking prospects should be straightforward - which player would the average MLB organization prefer? I don't favor his moral philosophy, but a Rawls-like blind starting point seems clearly correct for this purpose. Without knowing anything about the Major League club or the minor league system, who do you take? Focusing on the organization itself is a different question entirely, i.e., how useful is this player to us in particular? Looking at it this way helps illuminate problematic choices; no organization would draft Vargas ahead of Thorpe. Guys like Darnell are available on the waiver wire - clubs would rather have Kepler, despite his struggles and reduced prospect status. Sometimes the Twins actions/non-actions are a helpful guide. Thorpe is a good example. And if the Twins thought Garver was a real prospect he wouldn't be in Cedar Rapids still, so I defer to their evaluation on him, for another case.
  22. drivlikejehu
    If he can do that, then you won't need to worry. An .800 OPS, with decent defense, would make Santana one of the top young position players in the league - a star. The Twins wouldn't block a star player with Eduardo Escobar. If the Twins don't think he is, I'm not going to disagree.
  23. drivlikejehu
    A super utility role could be a good fit for Santana. His bat isn't a long-term asset, but his flexibility might be.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Baseball players make adjustments to their game all the time. Accurate self-evaluation is absolutely critical... coaches certainly play a role, but these are professionals that have ultimate responsibility for their careers. For instance, Perkins understands that having a high BABIP allowed probably doesn't mean something is wrong. He discussed that very issue early this season. Another pitcher might try to make a change that isn't necessary and might be counter-productive. MLB is full of players with talent. The challenge is to get the most out of it.
  25. drivlikejehu
    In a small sample, large variations are to be expected. Some will overperform, some will underperform, etc. It happens all the time.
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