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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, I think it's pretty clear that accountability is not present in the organization. The only real exception is that ownership/corporate management liked Ryan better than Smith and made a change (back to the future), but the front office itself remained basically the same, just as the field staff has basically remained the same despite a bit of tweaking. The Twins have had trouble acquiring enough talent and getting results from the talent they do have... the problems start at the top.
  2. drivlikejehu
    I think Berrios will be the youngest pitcher in the EL by about a year. It will definitely be interesting.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Garver is barely a prospect at all, which is why the Twins are letting him hang around in Lo-A.
  4. drivlikejehu
    The Twins knew the deal with him and there's nothing wrong with taking a high risk player in the 3rd round. But it's not looking like they are going to be cashing the lotto ticket.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Typically, injuries, inconsistency, etc. mean that very few if any teams maintain a solid #5 starter. The goal though is always the same - to have as many quality pitchers in the rotation as possible. So while Correia's performance is not necessarily out of line for a 5th starter, the difference is that the Twins embraced his mediocrity knowingly, and for 2 years, rather than as a backup plan. He was really a $2 million/1 year swing guy that should start in the bullpen and move to the rotation only if higher upside options fall out for whatever reason(s). But the Twins miscast him as a reliable #4 starter, which he isn't.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Yet again, there is literally nothing whatsoever in anything I've said, including the last post, that even remotely resembes, in the most tenuous possible way, "giving up" on him as a prospect. You are deliberately exaggerating any critical comments as "giving up" on a player. This kind of overreaction over differences of opinion is counter-productive... please stop.
  7. drivlikejehu
    There is nothing in my post at all that consitutes "giving up" on him. Nothing. It is impossible to legitimately construe my post that way. Clearly, I would not have drafted him, as I said immediately after the pick was made. But that's a separate issue. What concerns me about his debut is that the pick was justified based on the premise that he could move quickly through the system - a notion not exactly reinforced by his debut.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Nowhere did I "give up" on him. Posters here love to throw that around - oh look, people are "giving up" on so-and-so. Having concerns is not "giving up" and I don't really appreciate having my posts miscontrued. Besides which, you missed the point - taking Burdi that high only makes sense if he is relatively low-risk, because relievers have limited upside. Being unable to throw the ball anywhere near the plate in his first outing doesn't scream 'low-risk' to me.
  9. drivlikejehu
    You don't draft a college reliever that high if he is a project. I thought it was an awful pick and this certainly is not very promising.
  10. drivlikejehu
    Definitely interesting. The main drawback though is that the weaker players on a given roster could come from a variety of places, but tell us little about how the team was built. It's more important to know where the team's productivity came from, as opposed to just raw composition numbers. That's been written about mostly in the context of dependency on free agents.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Pedro threw mid-90s when he was young. Injuries sapped his velocity, I believe shortly before Pitch f/x was introduced. Target Field is good for flyball pitchers, but based on his current rates Berrios would project to be among the most extreme flyball pitchers in MLB (hitters put more balls in the air as the levels advance). That's partly why it's strange Berrios hasn't been promoted - is it really a good thing for Berrios, who is completely dominant right now, to be shielded from his main weakness? He basically doesn't have to worry about allowing home runs there. Obviously a different kind of pitcher, but look at Baxendale - flyball pitcher dominates FSL and then is blown up in the EL. I think Berrios would be fine overall in AA, but he would be punished for bad pitches much more frequently. He's too good for the FSL and keeping him there makes no sense.
  12. drivlikejehu
    I hope they sell high. He's not going to keep hitting like this and his actual catching isn't very good.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Achter is actually a very extreme flyball pitcher, which worries me. To succeed in the Majors he would need more strikeouts than he's getting in AAA and fewer walks, which isn't ordinarily how it works out.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Nope. The first 10 innings are equally predictive going forward. There is natural variation that occurs during the season. And even during Burton's "good" stretch, he has been mediocre.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Burton's xFIP is 5.25, which is unspeakable for a relief pitcher in today's game. He's one of the worst 10 relievers in baseball with more than 20 IP. Even a bad pitcher will have scoreless innings. He walks guys, gives up homers, doesn't get strikeouts... if anything fans probably don't realize just how ineffective he is now. There's no indication he is a Major League pitcher anymore.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Minor League baseball is a good option for relatively inexpensive entertainment for baseball fans. That's it. Without the developmental aspect, most minor league teams wouldn't exist at all.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Fair enough, but his track record is good. He's definitely more credible than most public sources. The reality of prospects is that most don't pan out... it's fine to be optimistic, but if you predict success regularly you will also be incorrect regularly.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Realistically, a chat with hundreds of questions being asked makes it hard to write a full report on every player discussed. I don't think he owes anything special to Twins fans to focus much more on Twins prospects compared to other teams. He has rated the Twins system highly and thinks Berrios is a solid prospect, just not top 100 yet. Of course you are free to disagree, but it's not fair to tell a public analyst they can't give any opinion without going into detail. The job wouldn't be possible.
  19. drivlikejehu
    His concern with Berrios is his flyball rate, which isn't primarily due to his height. In a recent milb.com article, a Twins' minor league coach mentioned that issue as well. It gives Berrios a small margin for error - with his batted ball profile, he needs both a top notch strikeout and walk rate, which I think he can do but gives him a small margin for error. Law is quick to change his outlook if a player improves his game in a visible way - he recently had a disagreement with Fangraphs' Dave Cameron over how quickly to toss out prior results when a player shows development. Fans get irritated because he doesn't get carried away with a limited stretch of stats. But I don't think any scout tosses out their assessment of player because of that.
  20. drivlikejehu
    You're right that it doesn't vary the same as with pitchers. The problem is that the league average batted ball results are washing out those differences. A slow player gets much different groundball results than a fast player. A player who hits the ball harder in general will get better line drive & flyball results. We don't yet have the data that would help determine the quality of contact being made. The speed part is easier. But without the "hit f/x" numbers, the batted ball info is essentially incomplete and not capable of yielding predictive information. For someone like Santana, the best approximation is to adjust his minor league BABIP & ISO and then apply that to a MLB plate discipline prediction.
  21. drivlikejehu
    It's not a sound method of projection. Line drive % in particular is very problematic, because there is variation in how the batted balls are recorded on top of the variation that occurs on the balls in play themselves. I mean, there is a 0% chance Santana's true line drive ability is 31%+. So using that rate is an error. The only way to use it at all would be as a heavily regressed, speculative number within a sustainable range.
  22. drivlikejehu
    I'm not following your arithmetic. Based on his current rates (the "Bad News" paragraph), here's what we would expect over 100 PA: 5 BB 21 K 74 balls in play Assuming a .297 BABIP, that would result in 22 hits in 95 ABs, which is a .232 batting average. I didn't run the numbers but the other scenarios look wrong too. So far as the topic itself, I think his true ability right now is in the .650 OPS range.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Fans massively overrate the trade value of their team's players. Many players mentioned have literally zero trade value (or even negative value - other teams don't want to pay their salary). Hughes obviously won't be traded so its purely philosophical, but I don't see a credible argument in favor. He gets paid very little for even a decent mid rotation starter, let alone someone at his current performance level.
  24. drivlikejehu
    To stay on topic... before getting hurt, Fernandez was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. I don't think any pitching prospect can be compared to that, regardless of minor league stat similarities. Having said that, Berrios is nasty. He definitely needs to go to AA and I'm not concerned at all about his ability to pitch at higher levels, including the Majors. Pitching is pitching. When you locate a 95 mph fastball and two good off-speed pitches, it really doesn't matter who is batting. That's the difference to me between hitters & pitchers. Most hitters need to see progressively better pitching to make adjustments. I don't think the reverse holds true. Pitching is about quality and location. Berrios already has the first, and while his command isn't quite as good as his walk rate indicates (since A+ hitters are helpless against him), it's already decent and is a good bet to improve.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Trolls gonna troll...
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