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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. The problem is that the caps are quite high compared to the available talent this year. The Twins may take Buxton and offer $5 million, basically thinking he couldn't possibly walk away.
  2. He is getting a ton of groundballs- far in excess of anything he did in the minors. Unless he made some kind of adjustment when he was called up, I wouldn't think it's sustainable. The jury is still out but I think he's a clear step up from Walters, DeVries, Swarzak, etc. (which isn't saying much).
  3. One pitcher can't fill out a rotation. If Gausman was a 100% guaranteed #2 starter who could join the rotation this month, well, that would be difficult to pass up. But he and Zimmer are both fairly raw as college pitchers go. Their ability to maintain velocity with a pro workload is unknown. Over 200 innings, Gausman might be more of a low-90s guy with one good off-speed pitch, making him a #3 or #4 starter at best. The upside is there, but the overall package doesn't overcome the inherent injury risk. I think they will take Correa and then a bunch of pitchers with subsequent picks.
  4. All the money for that spot is removed from the draft pool and the team receives a compensatory pick next year, I think #3 overall. In other words, not good, because it could prevent the team from signing other picks in this class.
  5. I don't like the idea of drafting a pitcher 2nd overall. The injury risk is just too great unless the prospect is off-the-charts in terms of stuff and command. This class doesn't have any of those guys. Keith Law said the other day that he heard Appel was #1 on the Twins' board, for what it's worth. Not being a scout or even having seen them play, I can't really compare Correa and Buxton, but the Twins wouldn't be working Correa out for the second time unless they really liked him. He's significantly younger than Buxton and it's harder to find 3rd basemen than outfielders. I'd like to see one of those guys and then a bunch of pitchers- preferably with upside. Stockpiling finesse college guys like Dean, Lanigan, etc., is just pointless. You can always find a 5th starter. Draft raw high schoolers and teach them how to pitch. That's what they pay the minor league instructors and coaches for.
  6. Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure Walters would rather have his daughter alive than her initials on the mound. The link is almost unbelievably disgusting in claiming that Walters just wants attention. I also doubt somehow that he sat down and pondered the exact size the letters should be. I personally don't think pitchers should be allowed to 'write' on the mound, but in the absence of such a rule it is despicable to call out Walters for what he does.
  7. The situation now is completely different than it was in the '90s. Ownership made it clear then that payroll would be at the bottom of the league due to the stadium situation. The team is undeniably mid-market now. Ownership is in a bad position here because if they keep cutting payroll, it will only lengthen the rebuilding process and turn off fans, costing them money in the long-run. But attendance won't be good enough to support an average payroll, while also allowing for the standard amount of Pohlad profit-taking. There's also a different Pohlad in charge. Smith's firing was already an indication of how things have changed. I don't pretend to know exactly what ownership's tolerance levels are, but I'm certain it isn't comparable to the '90s.
  8. It's only May and already a dreaded vote of confidence. Gardy is probably going to be fired barring significant improvement. It's not his fault but that's just the way it goes in baseball. It seemed like the original plan with TR was for him to ultimately pick a new internal successor after Smith's failure, albeit without much of a timeline. Now though I think the timeline has been accelerated and the successor will have to be external. Ryan's input will still be significant but the current situation is not tenable given the state of the organization.
  9. Yeah I mean, it only works if they have a relationship with the advisor/family and are confident the deal will hold. Rarely does something go wrong in those cases, and with the compensation pick next year it wouldn't be a catastrophe anyway, especially since they have extra 2012 picks. The difference this year is that most teams will be more or less unable to sign guys who fall in the draft. In past years, a number of teams took advantage of high school players who fell over signability concerns.... Red Sox, Tigers, etc. Now that option has been greatly restricted. So a much larger group of talented high school players will still be on the board this year after the first few rounds. It's just hard for me to believe it's better to have Zimmer than to have a ~#10 guy like Fried or Shaffer + 2 late first-round types.
  10. If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, that slot money is gone from their cap. So it could not be used on other players. However, a team can spend less than the slot amount and use the 'savings' on other picks. I think the Twins would be wise to consider making a deal with a slightly-lower rated player and using the savings to sign quality prospects who might slip. Most teams wouldn't be able to do this because their draft pool isn't significant enough to really find much savings. Let's say a prospect like Max Fried was expected to go in the 8-10 range, where the maximum bonus is around $2.8 million. What if the Twins call up Fried's 'advisor' and said, "we'll take him at #2 for $4 million." That is more than even the #5 slot can offer without going well over the limit. How could he possibly say no? Unless a player has a real likelihood of going #3 or maybe #4, the Twins could easily save $2-3 million and get a high quality prospect. The Twins could add multiple high quality prospects that way without losing too much. They won't do it but it seems like a good strategy for this draft, which doesn't really have standouts at the top of the draft like some classes do.
  11. New Britain is a pitcher's park too. I'm not sure it really makes all that much difference where he starts... maybe the Twins see AA as a way to challenge Hicks but also show some confidence in him. If they think that helps a bit I don't see anything wrong with it.
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