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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    In fairness JB wasn't really contruing Gardenhire correctly. Gardy's main point was that Pino had a good ERA in AAA and that his personal qualities offset the stuff concerns. Which of course isn't much better, since Pino's ERA isn't reflective of his performance, as has been exhaustively established.
  2. drivlikejehu
    The point we are apparently missing, jokin, is that luck is relevant, while skill is irrelevant. Though DeVries career numbers are bad across the board. So that one is still hard to follow.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Stat, short for statistic. Noun. "a numerical fact or datum, especially one computed from a sample. " FIP is a stat.
  4. drivlikejehu
    There is an important distinction here: not all comments are statements of opinion. It is a fact that, in a small sample, defense-independent metrics are superior to ERA. It has been studied and proven statistically. It does not involve my "view" or "opinion." Likewise, it is a fact that high strand rates are not sustainable. My personal views have nothing to do with it at all. Indeed, I'm not convinced posters should be allowed to argue otherwise. If something is indisputable - meaning if it is equally certain to 2 + 2 =4 - then arguing against it seems like trolling.
  5. drivlikejehu
    What Pino has done in Rochester will win the Twins 0 ballgames. It is of literally no relevance at all. The only thing that matters is how well a pitcher will do in the Majors. There is no reason to think Pino is a better MLB option than the alternatives. Making false statements over and over does not increase their validity.
  6. drivlikejehu
    May has hit fewer batters than Pino. That really can't be refuted. But just like your facts, it doesn't matter. Your false claims of Pino's superior performance have been refuted over and over. You are factually wrong.
  7. drivlikejehu
    This is just not correct. Hughes' fielding independent numbers confirm his improvement. Pino's do not. Stranding over 90% of baserunners is not a skill. It cannot be maintained by any pitcher on the planet at any level. Having a lower BABIP than Mariano Rivera is not a sustainable skill for a 29 year old journeyman who throws 85. The resources are out there to learn about why those things are true. It's not productive to argue against uncontested facts.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Pino's FIP is actually higher than 3.69 that if you only consider his work as a starter. In 19 relief innings, 29 strikeouts. In 42 innings as a starter, 31 strikeouts, 11 walks. Completely ordinary. It is absolutely false to say he has better stats than May and Meyer. In small samples, fielding independent metrics are superior. And in those, Pino trails other Rochester starters.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Yes Pino does have trade value. The A's just acquired a 29 year old soft tosser, Brad Mills, who is very similar to Pino, though he is left-handed and has a bit of MLB experience. The cost was $1. So Pino is worth at least 50 cents, maybe 75. His FIP is actually 4th in the Rochester rotation. He is lucky, not dominant. He is a flyball pitcher whose strikeout numbers will plummet against major league hitters. Pino could be a 12th guy on the staff, similar to Swarzak, but that's it. He doesn't "deserve" anything special because of a fluky AAA ERA.
  10. drivlikejehu
    My hope is that this is a one-start thing. If the Twins really thought Pino was worth a rotation spot, shouldn't he have had one years ago? The Twins continue to mismanage their pitching assets. They won't contend so long as it continues. No amount of excuses will change that.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I don't see any reason to think he's close to being ready. He has plate discipline problems and only OK power. He hasn't been playing CF regularly due to the 2B move years ago. If he earns the promotion, great, but I'd be surprised.
  12. drivlikejehu
    There is a lot of variation during a season and we shouldn't get too worked up over limited stretches, good or bad. The question is - what can we expect going forward? Deduno has an xFIP as a starter of 4.81, and that's the most charitable way of looking at his performance. His career numbers as a starter aren't great either - xFIP of 4.42, ERA of 4.51. There is no particular reason he should be in the rotation over someone with long-term relevance. The issue with Correia isn't whether he's still a decent 5th starter - it's whether he gives the team its best chance to win. His xFIP is 4.59... if May replaces Deduno, maybe that is better than the alternatives. But if it isn't, a change should be made. Correia shouldn't have a special claim to a rotation spot.
  13. drivlikejehu
    The Twins bullpen has been above average in terms of runs allowed, but is 2nd worst in MLB in xFIP. It's really not a very good group right now. Duensing is getting by on luck - his stuff is awful - and Burton is totally shot. Swarzak is a mop up guy. Guerrier is OK at best. One obvious way to improve is just to move Deduno back - he's much better suited to a relief role.
  14. drivlikejehu
    That's an arbitrary dichotomy. I cited objective facts that led to my view that Anderson is not likely to be a major factor in Hughes' success. You can agree or disagree, but logically it makes no sense to say the coach "always" needs to be a factor when a player does better or worse. In fact, I think it's clear that both your options are false. We know for sure that coaching can be relevant, so #1 is out. And we know that players can make adjustments on their own, ruling out #2 also. So the only 'honest' way of looking at it is to recognize that each circumstance is different.
  15. drivlikejehu
    It's helpful that he has good command, because that makes it easier to throw innings without racking up high pitch counts (which obviously the Twins won't let him do). I think it's very possible he could debut next year.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Anderson is part of an organizational weakness that we've seen over the years when it comes to starters without the quality pitches needed to attack the strike zone. I would put much more of the blame on management for the pitchers he has been provided to work with, but overall I don't think he's very effective. Hughes is clearly a guy that takes the lead on his own approach and adjustments. Between that and the fact he's new to the team, I don't see much reason for Anderson to get credit.
  17. drivlikejehu
    What concerns me the most is player evaluation. They throw players out there who just don't have it - Kubel, Correia, etc. - as if they have no ability to discern what the player is currently capable of. Of course fans are excited when this haphazard strategy works, e.g., Phil Hughes, but it doesn't seem like a winning formula to me.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Except that everything is connected. Payroll space used for one player can't be used for another. Prospects traded for one player can't be traded for another. No significant move can be evaluated in a vacuum. Your post wasn't really responsive to mine anyway - this thread is about a Twins "mindset change." I don't see any evidence of that at all. The Twins have been doing deals like this (and larger obviously) for a couple years now. The timing is unusual due to the draft comp issue, but there is zero indication anything has "changed" for the Twins management.
  19. drivlikejehu
    I don't see any actual evidence their mindset has changed. In the off-season they signed the biggest FA deal in Twins history, and even Hughes' contract was large by their standards. Of course they also punted CF and SS and the back of the rotation. Same deal as now. Make an uncharacteristic signing, while sticking with Correia and ad libbing in CF. Same mixed bag as before.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I was commenting more broadly. It wouldn't be because of Morales - it would be because the Twins front office isn't up to the task. For the most part I think we actually agree. My reaction to the Morales signing has just been to look beyond this one player, and think about where the organization is and where it's going. This is an organization that thought it was a good idea for 40% of the rotation to be Correia and Pelfrey. I'm glad they want consistent production from the DH spot. I wish they were committed to the same from CF and SP.
  21. drivlikejehu
    That's exactly right, and it's the wrong approach. The Twins make moves erratically. Some are good, some are bad, some are OK. There is no consistent strategy. Organizations that behave that way are rarely successful. If enough prospects develop, it won't matter, but if certain guys don't pan out the Twins will be Kansas City part 2. The Twins were doing well at DH and upgraded there. Yet other key positions remain problematic, as foreseen by everyone. Signing Morales is all well and good, but it just leaves me more confused then ever as to why other positions have been punted in a year management wants to be successful.
  22. drivlikejehu
    I don't agree that the current standings mean nothing. The Twins have to outplay a ton of teams from here on out just to get a wildcard spot. Could they outplay the White Sox? Of course. Kansas City? Sure. But then also - New York? Baltimore? Texas? Seattle? Los Angeles? Cleveland? Boston? The Twins aren't going to be able to keep pace with or overtake so many clubs. It's not realistic if you look at the rosters of the other teams and compare to the Twins. You can come up with reasons for why it will happen for any individual opponent, but collectively a few of those are going to play better baseball from here on out.
  23. drivlikejehu
    The team is in last place, 3 games under .500. Adding Morales does nothing to fundamentally alter the pecking order in the American League. It's a modest improvement to a team that is not a contender. If the plan was to contend this year, then the off-season was grossly inadequate, even with the signings of Hughes & Nolasco. They didn't add enough to contend and the results have clearly demonstrated as much. I do think the organization is concerned about the impact the past few years has had on the fan base. I see the logic in trying to bolster the odds of finishing .500 or fairly close to it. But the problem is this - that goal is inconsistent with trading away guys at the deadline, even if it remains clear that the playoffs are out of the question.
  24. drivlikejehu
    That might move the needle from 5% to 7%.
  25. drivlikejehu
    It improves the team a bit. They still aren't contenders. My concern though is - if you are a contender, how can you throw Hicks out there with no backup plan? If you are a contender, how can you keep throwing Correia with an ERA of 7? It doesn't work to be half-in, half-out.
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